Our highest over/under of the day comes in Texas where the Royals will be taking on the Rangers. Besides being in a good hitters’ park, this game has two pitchers who have been, how shall I put it nicely, awful. The Rangers’ lefty Ross Detwiler has allowed 2.2 homers per nine innings and averaged just 4.7 innings pitched per game while the Rangers bullpen owns the 25th “best” ERA at 4.56 and the Royals are hitting lefties for a .352 wOBA and have a .336 wOBA on the road, both second best in the league.
I’ll be stacking Royals players liberally, but Jeremy Guthrie hasn’t been that much better with a 5.70 ERA, which jumps up to, 7.85 and four homers allowed in 18 innings if you just factor in lefties.
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DIAMONDS IN THE ROUGH
Shin-Soo Choo – OF – TEX (FanDuel Price: $3,100) Choo had an absolute horrid start to the season, which at least helped his price drop, but he’s picked it back up with leadoff homers in his last two games and four straight multi-hit games to go along with his 13 game hitting streak. He’s just too hot right now, especially going up against a right-handed pitcher, not to have a ton of exposure to today.
Alcides Escobar – SS – KAN (FanDuel Price: $2,700) Since Escobar has returned to the lineup he has four multi-hit games in his last six and I’ve already shown you how poor Detwiler has been this season. The lefty/righty matchup is good, the park is good, the skill level discrepancy is good, it’s all good.
Yasmani Grandal – C – LAD (FanDuel Price: $3,100) Grandal has a nice .945 OPS against righties this year and is hitting .484 over his last ten games. The Rockies recalled Chad Bettis from Triple-A for this start who has eight major league starts for a 6.88 career ERA. The Dodgers lead the league in team wOBA at home and against righties, so feel good about stacking the Dodgers today.
Carlos Beltran – OF – NYY (FanDuel Price: $2,800) Beltran faces Erasmo Ramirez who has allowed 1.8 HR/9 and a .360 wOBA to righties in his career, while Beltran has been hitting well of late with two homers in his last four games.
Zack Cozart – SS – CIN (FanDuel Price: $2,500) Cozart continues to hit, but his price doesn’t continue to go up, which is good for us. He faces Tim Lincecum who is having a nice season, but is always worse on the road and against righties. Cozart is hitting .375 over the last ten games.
Thomas Field – 2B – TEX (FanDuel Price: $2,200) The new starting second baseman for the Rangers has shown some ability in his first three games and gets a nice matchup against Guthrie at home. His price and stackability is what intrigues me the most though.
Prince Fielder – 1B – TEX (FanDuel Price: $3,100) Fielder has been hitting well all season, but his power numbers kept his price from really skyrocketing, but now he’s hit two homers in his last three games and looks to be getting his long ball groove back. He’s hit righties for a .356 wOBA in his career and owns a 1.278 OPS against Guthrie in 23 at bats.
Kevin Kiermaier -- OF – TAM (FanDuel Price: $2,700) Chase Whitley has allowed a .401 wOBA to lefties so far in his career, along with a 1.81 HR/9 rate. The Rays have three lefty starters in Kiermaier, David DeJesus and James Loney who all have value in this matchup, but haven’t been hitting consistently. I think all three have GPP value and Kiermaier is my upside play of the three.
Jason Castro – C – HOU (FanDuel Price: $2,300) Castro has hit a homer in his last two games and is hitting righties for a .332 wOBA for his career. Drew Hutchinson has allowed 1.44 homers per nine innings to lefties along with a .345 wOBA. Check to see if he’s in the lineup, but I like his home run potential in the hitter friendly Minute Maid Park.