FanDuel Fades Week 13
There are several reasons you might not want to roster a certain player in a given week of NFL DFS. To truly be a “fade”, in my opinion the player has to be projected to have decent ownership, e.g. no one is “fading” a RB3 on the NY Giants. I’ll always provide the argument for and against a player in this column.
Also, fading a player doesn’t necessarily mean you’ll have zero exposure. If you’re a DFS player who plays on multiple sites with multiple lineups in various contests, fading might mean you use that player in just one or two tournament lineups while other DFS players are using him in a majority of their lineups.
In the case where you want to fade a player due to projected high ownership (see more on this below), perhaps you fade him in tournaments but continue to roster him in cash games. Having an idea of whom you don’t want to roster as well as whom you do makes navigating salary decisions in the lineup construction process a little bit easier.
So in Week 13, I’m fading…
Julio Jones: He finally had the big game we all knew was in there, but it came vs. the league worst pass defense (Tampa Bay). His price is back up as a result, and this week he takes on Minnesota, a formidable defensive unit even on the road.
Matthew Stafford: I don’t know if anyone is interested in the passing game vs. Baltimore at this point, but I’m completely out. Stafford should at least be close to 100 percent for this game with two healthy receivers in Golden Tate and Marvin Jones Jr. but Baltimore is second only to Jacksonville in allowing the least fantasy points to opposing QBs and they rank as the third worst wide receiver matchup. This is game a full avoid for me, excepting maybe Alex Collins.
Alvin Kamara/Mark Ingram: This is a cash game fade…I’m really high on the Saints pass game this weekend, and while Kamara certainly figures in there, the Panthers have been very stingy to opposing running backs this season. It will be an interesting matchup between the third best rushing offense and the third best rushing defense on Sunday. This is a situation for tournaments only given that there are several less expensive guys in better matchups.
Alex Smith: I’ve been burned a couple times now on the Chiefs, notably vs. Buffalo last weekend. Something is up here, and none of the once golden foursome of Smith, Kareem Hunt, Travis Kelce, or Tyreek Hill will in my main lineups this weekend. Smith in particular is seemingly back in conservative mode, and while his perfect TD:INT ratio was bound to regress, it’s been bad over the last few weeks. This could be a perfect spot for the Chiefs to rebound at the Jets, but not a spot I trust beyond a tournament flier.
Adrian Peterson: The DvP vs. RBs for the Rams is excellent, as they’ve given up the second-most fantasy points to the position this season. However, Peterson is dealing with a neck issue, and while the team says they expect him to play, they now know they’ll have Kerwyn Williams available as well. Peterson is a guy I want in a good matchup when I feel confident he’ll get 20 touches…I’m nervous that he operates in more of a time share this weekend to take it easy on his neck, or that he reinjures himself early on. There’s also a chance the Rams are up by so much that the Arizona run game becomes obsolete.
In Week 13, players with high projected ownership are Tom Brady, Keenan Allen, DeAndre Hopkins, Jamal Williams, Jordan Howard, Kenyon Drake, Jared Cook, Jaguars D/ST, Chargers D/ST. I think Game Theory is useful in DFS to an extent; obviously we can’t all win with the same players. But time and again it’s proven that big GPP winners can and do win with popular plays in their lineups. One or two highly owned players that live up to their expectations (e.g. score a ton of points) won’t hurt you nearly as much as fading those guys in favor of lower-owned, lesser-producing players will. The trick is to find the low-owned, productive guys to mix in around them.