FanDuel Fades Week 7
There are several reasons you might not want to roster a certain player in a given week of NFL DFS. To truly be a “fade”, in my opinion the player has to be projected to have decent ownership, e.g. no one is “fading” a RB3 on the NY Giants. I’ll always provide the argument for and against a player in this column.
Also, fading a player doesn’t necessarily mean you’ll have zero exposure. If you’re a DFS player who plays on multiple sites with multiple lineups in various contests, fading might mean you use that player in just one or two tournament lineups while other DFS players are using him in a majority of their lineups.
In the case where you want to fade a player due to projected high ownership (see more on this below), perhaps you fade him in tournaments but continue to roster him in cash games. Having an idea of whom you don’t want to roster as well as whom you do makes navigating salary decisions in the lineup construction process a little bit easier.
So in Week 7, I’m fading…
A.J. Green and Andy Dalton: The Steelers got the W in Kansas City last week and now return home to take on the Bengals. While Big Ben Roethlisberger and company aren’t quite firing on all cylinders, Vegas does like them to win pretty handily this weekend. I agree that Andy Dalton and A.J. Green will be hard pressed to score enough real points to make Green worth his third-most expensive $8500 salary. While they haven’t faced first class offenses outside of last week, the Steelers are allowing the fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers and third fewest to quarterbacks.
T.Y. Hilton: Speaking of difficult matchups, the Jaguars are also bottom five in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers thanks to the excellent play in the secondary by Jalen Ramsey. Antonio Brown succeeded, but it took 19 targets to get him to 20 fantasy points in Week 5. Hilton has done really well this season in really easy matchups (Cleveland and San Francisco), which this just isn’t.
Eli Manning: Manning shocked the football world last Sunday night, putting together a win out of nothing in Denver. It remains to be seen if Sterling Shepard will be back this weekend as the Giants take on the Seahawks in New York, but either way, Manning is not to be used in DFS this week. Seattle is coming off their bye week, and already ranks in the bottom five in fantasy points to quarterbacks (this is a team that gets better as the season goes on). He’s very inexpensive but I’d rather take a shot with C.J. Beathard, Philip Rivers, Tyrod Taylor, or even Brett Hundley than Manning this week.
Bills WRs: Jordan Matthews may return to the Bills lineup in time for the league’s best WR matchup with Tampa Bay. The Bucs look like they start Jameis Winston, but he’s clearly not going to be 100 percent, which may allow the Bills defense to create some additional offensive drives and/or good field position for Tyrod Taylor and company. So, with all this good stuff, why fade? The simple answer is a lack of trust in this wide receiver group, including Matthews. I’m using the Bills, but limiting my exposure to Taylor, LeSean McCoy and Nick O’Leary, the minimum priced tight end that Taylor targeted six times after Charles Clay got hurt.
Stefon Diggs: OUT
Melvin Gordon: He should play, although you still may want to use him sparingly against the Broncos’ league-leading rush defense.
Keenan Allen: A late addition to the injury report with a shoulder, Allen did not practice Friday. Like Gordon, keep an eye on the situation but there are better options vs. a stingy Denver secondary featuring Chris Harris and Aqib Talib.
Kelvin Benjamin: It sounds like his knee tweak isn’t a huge deal, but keep an eye on this situation. I’ve not been using Benjamin anyway because Christian McCaffrey is my preferred way to take advantage of this nice matchup with the Chicago Bears, but Cam Newton has been undeniably good in his last two games.
Davante Parker: Doubtful, and with the way Miami has been playing, near the bottom of the league in points scored, I’m staying far away.
DeMarco Murray: This is a great matchup with the Browns, but if Murray is less than 100 percent, I don’t see why the Titans would risk him when they have Derrick Henry. If Murray is out or limited, Henry shoots up the list of attractive running back options at just $5600.
In Week 7, players with high projected ownership are Marcus Mariota, LeSean McCoy, Tyrod Taylor, Julio Jones, Matt Ryan, Tom Brady, Brett Hundley, Demaryius Thomas, Nick O’Leary, Titans D/ST, Vikings D/ST. I think Game Theory is useful in DFS to an extent; obviously we can’t all win with the same players. But time and again it’s proven that big GPP winners can and do win with popular plays in their lineups. One or two highly owned players that live up to their expectations (e.g. score a ton of points) won’t hurt you nearly as much as fading those guys in favor of lower-owned, lesser-producing players will. The trick is to find the low-owned, productive guys to mix in around them.