Hopefully you had yourself an enjoyable Fourth of July Weekend. As for tonight, FanDuel is hosting a $160,000 Grand Slam tournament and the winner will take home a sweet $18,000.
As always, make sure to check all the MLB lineups and potential inclement weather before submitting your rosters. Additionally, if you aren't already, I suggest you follow RotoGrinders Chief Meteorologist @KevinRothWx on Twitter for the most up-to-date and accurate DFS forecasts you'll find anywhere. Let’s get to the picks.
Editor's Note: Play one-day fantasy baseball for cash! FanDuel is hosting a $125,000 league for Monday's MLB games. It's just $5 to join and first place wins $10,000. Starts tonight at 7:05pm ET. Enter now!
Carlos Carrasco vs Houston, $9,700: Carrasco is coming off a game in which he was one out away from a no-hitter, and tonight he faces the boom/bust Astros. Houston strikes out more than any other team in the league and they will be without one of their most imposing sticks in George Springer, who is on the DL. Combine that with a K rate of 9.7/9IP since 2014 and a sweet upside is in play. The tricky park is that the Astros will be rolling out their ace in Dallas Keuchel, thus making a potential win, and the accompanying precious four FD points, a little more difficult to obtain. That said, Carrasco can certainly justify his asking price simply via racking up innings and punchouts.
Mark Buehrle at Chicago White Sox, $7,600: If you have your eye on Chris Sale, I won't talk you out of it. I will likely have some shares of the Chicago ace, who has now struck out double digit batters in a ridiculous eight straight games. That said, he is the most expensive arm on the board and faces the top team in all of baseball vs left-handers, so I won't be as invested I typically would. As for the pitcher on the other side, don't look now, but Mark Buehrle has been undeniably solid of late. In his last six games, he has tossed at least 6 IP, while yielding no more than 2 ER (8 combined). Add in the fact that Chicago is dead last in any meaningful category vs lefties (OBP, wRC+, wOBA, etc.) and the former CWS pitcher isn't a crazy tournament option. To be clear, I don't think Buehrle continues pitching with such success long term, I just wouldn't be surprised if it continues for one more game, and that is call we care about in DFS.
Buster Posey vs New York Mets, $4,600: Rostering the Giants backstop vs left-hander is DFS 101. The perennial All-Star is a notorious lefty masher and Jon Niese isn't exactly an arm that one needs to shy away from. The only hurdle here is potential salary constraints, but if you have the funds, by all means delegate some Posey's way.
Yasmani Grandal vs Philadelphia, $3,200: Get used to seeing a parade of Dodgers. They will be opposed by the vulnerable Sean O’Sullivan, who has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball over the course of the season. Compound that with Los Angeles sporting the best offense vs righties, and it is obvious why the Dodgers have the highest team total on the Las Vegas MLB odds board. As for Grandal, the switch-hitting catcher will hit from his preferred side and should find his way into multiple RBI opportunities.
Adrian Gonzalez vs Philadelphia, $3,000: Remember how I said that Sean O'Sullivan has been brutal? Well, he has been particularly horrific vs left-handed bats. The sample isn't huge, but since '14 he has been smashed by lefties to the tune of a .360 AVG, 1.122 OPS, and a HR/FB rate of 23.4%. The only potential hiccup here is that Gonzalez left yesterday's game with a hand contusion, but if he cracks tonight's lineup, he is one of the best price/matchup plays on the slate.
Lucas Duda at San Francisco, $2,600: The Mets first baseman has really been scuffling of late, and no, the hitting environment in San Francisco is by no means ideal, but Duda has the power to hit one out anywhere. Opposing pitcher Chris Heston has been fine vs righties, but has struggled vs lefty sticks. Heston yielding a .825 OPS and a low strikeout rate suggests Duda could be a potential cheap source of pop tonight.
Brian Dozier vs Baltimore, $3,500: Whenever Dozier faces a left-hander he demands your attention. A career .230 ISO will do that. Needless to say, the Twins second baseman benefits from a nice power boost vs lefties. I'm not overthinking this one. If I can spring for the $3,500, and really, that is a very fair price, I'm more than willing to do so.
Robinson Cano vs Detroit, $2,900: He has started to show flashes of his former self and the price is still cheaper than the namebrand would suggest it should be. Cano will be opposed by Alfredo Simon, who has been a human punching bag of late, as he's given up 18 ER and 29 hits in his last 14.2 innings pitched. I don't mind Cano as a solo Seattle piece, but I don't hate the idea of mini-stacking the Mariners with a GPP entry.
Manny Machado at Minnesota, $4,200: One of sneakiest plays in all of DFS is the duel reverse splits play. Right-hander Phil Hughes has been more vulnerable to righty bats, while the Baltimore third baseman has been best vs righties throughout his career. Obviously the asking price is a bit steep, but the upside is there for Machado vs Hughes, who gives up a pile of flyballs.
Miguel Sano vs Baltimore, $2,200: Don't get used to seeing this. A prospect with the pedigree of Sano with a bare minimum salary. Scouts gifted him with an 80 Grade when it comes to raw power (the highest possible) and it becomes heightened vs left-handers, who he just pummeled in the minors. Combine this with Wei-Yin Chen's 42.9% FB rate vs righties and I'm comfortable calling Sano banging out his first career home run this evening. The first of what should be many, but few at this asking price.
Jhonny Peralta at Chicago Cubs, $3,100: No one really jumps out to me at the shortstop position tonight. You may want to wait for lineups to come out and hope for someone cheap to get a bump up in the order, and just roster that guy. As for Peralta, I don't really want to pick on Jon Lester too much, but he is priced down and he certainly has the ability to go yard tonight.
Joc Pederson vs Philadelphia, $3,300: My apologies for completely neglecting picking on Sean O'Sullivan for far too long. Again, pretty much all of the Dodgers are worth your consideration (especially the lefty bats). Pederson sports an impressive .914 OPS and a .295 ISO vs right-handers this season. I saw someone tweet out that the Dodgers rookie has put up a Dunn 10 times already this season (a game where one registers a HR, BB, and a K all in the same game). I wouldn't be surprised if an homage to Adam Dunn happens once again tonight.
Gerardo Parra vs Atlanta, $3,100: Parra has taken full advantage of the opportunity to lead off due to some team injuries and is currently in the midst of a five-game stretch in which he has posted multiple hits. While not exactly a specialist when it comes to power or speed guy, Parra does have the ability to knock one out or swipe a bag. I don't believe he is as good as his last thirty days suggests, but I won't completely ignore a line of 19 runs, 4 HRs, 5 SBs, and .342 AVG over that time period either.