Here on Saturday we have a nice 11-game late slate, and as always there is plenty of cash to be won at FanDuel. Here are my top targets:
Corey Kluber, Cleveland Indians, $11,700 - If you’re spending up at pitcher, Kluber looks to be in a great spot to pay off his price tag, and he provides the highest upside on the board. He carries the day’s highest strikeout rate, as well as the day’s lowest xFIP, and is facing an Angels team that is ice cold at the plate. Kluber struggled against them in early August, but the Angels have really cooled off since then, as they are 29th in wOBA over the last two weeks.
Luis Severino, New York Yankees, $5,300 - If you’re looking to save at pitching and load up on some bats for GPPs, there are several solid options tonight. As of Friday night, J.A. Happ, Jordan Zimmermann and Luis Severino were all monster favorites of at least -200 on the MLB odds board to pick up the all-important win on FanDuel. Severino is by far the cheapest of those three, and he is facing a weak Atlanta offense. The Braves don’t strike out a ton, but they also aren’t a potent offense, and he should see plenty of run support to pick up the win. Severino carries a solid 25.8% strikeout rate and has produced at least 11 FD points in three of his last four starts, which is all you really need at his price point.
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Brian McCann, New York Yankees, $3,400 - Part of the reason I like Severino as a GPP play is I love the Yankees lefties, so I’m expecting him to receive plenty of run support. They put up a crooked number last night against Williams Perez, and they look to be in a great position to do so against tonight against Matt Wisler. Wisler has not figured out major league left-handed bats yet, as they are crushing him for a .464 wOBA and 2.76 home runs per nine innings. The Yanks are loaded up with lefty bats, and McCann should be hitting fourth or fifth and get plenty of RBI opportunities.
Derek Norris, San Diego Padres, $3,000 - I’m a big fan of picking on Adam Morgan, as he gives up a ton of home runs balls due to his incredibly high 56% fly ball rate to right-handed bats. That fly ball rate has resulted in 2.28 home runs per nine innings to righties, as well as a .379 wOBA, so there’s a good chance at least one of these Padres’ righties takes him yard tonight in a hitter friendly stadium. Norris has been a disappointment this year, but he’s been a little better recently and has a strong history of hitting lefties hard.
Also Consider: Welington Castillo
Adam Lind, Milwaukee Brewers, $3,500 - Lind has been cold at the plate, but he should heat up soon, and tonight he returns to his home ball park, where he holds a .417 wOBA against right-handed pitching. Keyvius Sampson has struggled to start his MLB career, and in a small sample size he is allowing a .393 wOBA to lefties.
Scooter Gennett, Milwaukee Brewers, $2,200 - This is a position that I’ll be looking to save at today, as there just aren’t any high end options I’m in love with; plus, there are some big bats at 1B and OF that I’d like to spend on. Scooter has not been good this year, but he’s minimum price and he sometimes leads off against righties. As long as he’s hitting leadoff, I’ll be willing to roll him out there and target Sampson’s aforementioned struggles against lefties.
Jedd Gyorko, San Diego Padres, $2,600 - That’s right. I’m following up a Scooter Gennett recommendation with Jedd Gyorko. For those of you who stuck around to read this sentence, here’s why. Gyorko is similar to Gennett in that this play is more about this opposing pitcher and his lineup order than Gyorko’s hitting accomplishments this season. He’s been bad, but he does have some pop, and he’s been hitting in the heart of the Padres’ order. I mentioned Morgan’s fly ball tendencies, so Gyorko offers some home run upside at a low price point, and his low price allows you to spend up elsewhere.
Carlos Correa, Houston Astros, $3,900 - Hopefully he’s back in the lineup because he’d be facing Mike Pelfrey, and the shortstop position gets very thin without him playing. The Astros have a healthy 4.34 run total, since Pelfrey is very hittable by both righties and lefties alike. Correa is one of the rising stars in the game and is in a great spot if he returns to the lineup.
Josh Harrison, Pittsburgh Pirates, $2,500 - This selection depends on whether he is batting leadoff or not. If he is in the lineup and batting leadoff, Harrison is a solid value play against Chris Rusin, who has allowed a .357 wOBA to righties and a career .371 wOBA. The Pirates have some lefty mashers on their team, so if he gets on base I expect him to score a few runs tonight. If he doesn’t draw the start, you can pivot to another right-handed Pirate in Aramis Ramirez, who is just $300 more and should be batting cleanup.
Manny Machado, Baltimore Orioles, $3,900 - The Orioles have the highest team total on the late slate with a team total approaching five runs. Machado actually hits righties better than lefties, but I still like him here, as I love the hitting environment and Martin Perez is nothing special. Perez does a solid job of limiting home runs, but he’s still allowing a .362 wOBA to righties this year and Vegas is telling us that the Orioles are going to do some damage.
Bryce Harper, Washington Nationals, $5,000 - If you go the Severino route, you’ll be able to load up on a few high-priced bats like Harper. The Nationals are starting to get healthy, which should provide more lineup protection for Harper, and they’re facing Tom Koehler, who has shown some fairly large home/road splits. Koehler has struggled against lefties this season, allowing 1.57 home runs per nine innings and a high 37% hard hit rate. For the BVP guys, Harper has absolutely owned him too, as he is 7-for-21 with five home runs.
Justin Upton, San Diego Padres, $4,000 - I’ve mentioned that I like the home run upside with some of the Padres’ righties, so that means I’m definitely targeting their best and hottest bat in Justin Upton. He can be a streaky hitter and he’s started to get hot in his past 10 games or so. Upton’s really struggled against lefties this year, but he’s typically hit them well, and some of his struggles are due to a low .245 BABIP against lefties.
Carlos Beltran, New York Yankees, $3,400 - Beltran got off to a slow start to the season and had many wondering whether it was time for him to hang up the cleats. However, he’s been red hot over the past month or so and has put those thoughts to bed. Beltran has always hit righties very well, and he will likely be hitting fifth against the struggling Matt Wisler. I’m loving those Yanks again tonight, especially the Beltran/McCann mini-stack.