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FanDuel NBA Bargains - Monday

by Ryan Knaus
Updated On: October 4, 2018, 4:04 pm ET

There are six games on the slate tonight, which you'll find below, along with Vegas' expectations for the over/unders and spreads (as of noon on Monday).

 

Matchup

Over/Under

Spread

Celtics at Bulls

194.0

Celts -4.0

Pelicans at Rockets

226

Rockets -13.0

Heat at Grizzlies

193.5

Grizzlies -1.0

Hornets at Thunder

206

Thunder -7.5

Blazers at Warriors

217

Warriors -10.5

Raptors at Clippers

216

Raptors -5.5

 

As usual, DFS owners simply must stay vigilant until the moment lineups lock. Even that's not enough sometimes -- witness Joel Embiid suddenly being ruled out with back tightness after lineups locked on Sunday. Injuries can be a fantasy owners' best friend or worst enemy -- the goal here is to find players who stand to benefit from missing teammates, with an eye toward exploiting the very best matchups. We're looking for 'bargains' in this column, so I try to scavenge among the very cheapest players, but sometimes include guys in the $6k range.

 

We'll begin with the Celtics, who will be playing the Bulls without Kyrie Irving (bruised quad) and Marcus Morris (sore knee), while Al Horford (bruised knee) is iffy. When Kyrie missed the better part of two games earlier this season, it was predictably Marcus Smart (SG, $5.6k) and Terry Rozier (PG, $4.0k) whose opportunities surged.

 

Smart averaged 11.0 points, 8.0 assists, 3.0 rebounds and 1.5 steals in those games, and could have done a lot more if he hadn't shot a combined 6-of-26 from the field...bad even by his standards. Rozier was just as busy, with 15.5 points, 6.5 boards, 5.5 assists and 1.5 steals. Suffice to say, both guys should get more than enough minutes and touches to post big value tonight -- I'm particularly keen on Rozier, whose ownership might be a bit lower than Smart's simply because he's unlikely to start.

 

The possible absence of Horford and Morris also throws open the frontcourt rotation for guys like Aron Baynes (C, $3.5k), Daniel Theis (PF, $3.5k), and maybe even Guershon Yabusele (PG, $3.5k). Punt plays abound. As an added bonus, the Bulls have been the fifth most-lenient team for DFS over the past month, according to Rotogrinders -- they've been particularly easy for SGs and SFs.

 

The bottom line is that this is a game to attack for value-added purposes -- the low over/under is more than compensated for by the great matchup and the absence of Irving, Horford and Morris. Jayson Tatum (PF, $6.3k) and Jaylen Brown (SF, $5.5k) should get all the touches they can handle, and the hardest part will be deciding which four Celtics to squeeze into your lineup(s). Tatum, Brown, Rozier and Theis? Sounds good to me.

 

Nicolas Batum (elbow) has been ruled out for tonight's matchup vs. the Thunder, and all signs point to Jeremy Lamb (SG, $5.0k) starting in his place. In 13 previous starts this season, Lamb averaged 16.2 points, 5.2 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.4 blocks and 1.8 turnovers. That adds up to 29.5 FanDuel points -- aka 6x value. Lamb would have a harder time if Paul George (calf) and Andre Roberson (ankle) are cleared to play, but right now both guys look like game-time decisions for OKC. If both guys are out, Lamb could have an absolute field day, so keep an eye on Rotoworld's player news page as lineup-lock approaches.

 

Marvin Williams (PF, $5.1k) should also be a value play due to the Hornets' injury woes. I'm a bit leery of him until we see how Frank Kaminsky's return impacts his role, but at $5.1k he's at least worth a glance.

 

Ryan Anderson (PF, $4.0k) has been as hit-or-miss as they come. Just look at his FanDuel totals over the past six games (rounded up): 28, 16, 30, 3, 35, 3. He's not exactly the most reliable player, but there's cause for optimism tonight -- namely, the Pelicans have been the best team for PFs to face over the past month. They've given up an average of 52.4 FanDuel points per game to PFs in that span (starters and bench), which is more than the lousy defenses of Phoenix, Denver, Atlanta and Orlando. Anthony Davis (adductor) is also questionable to suit up tonight, which could make Anderson's life a lot easier.

 

Ryan Knaus
Despite residing in Portland, Maine, Ryan Knaus remains a heartbroken Sonics fan who longs for the days of Shawn Kemp and Xavier McDaniel. He has written for Rotoworld.com since 2007. You can follow him on Twitter.