Welcome back to the Friday edition of NBA Top Plays! We have ten games to get into tonight with action tipping off at 7:00 PM ET.
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The Knicks PG rotation has completely changed since the pre-ASB period, and they’ve been getting more fantasy production out of the position since. That of course also has to do with the absence of Kristaps Porzingis and the Knicks clear intent to shift towards the youth movement, but both Burke and Mudiay have had points of success as regular rotation members. Mudiay has been the starter since we returned from the ASB, but Burke has been the better DFS performer of the two, getting up at least 15 shots in each of his past three games despite not playing more than 30 minutes. Burke owns an insane 31.3% usage rate over his past three games and if he’s able to hold that number relatively in check, he’s still a tad too cheap. Mudiay has become the slightly less appealing option, but it’s worth noting that Burke has shot over 50% in each of those three contests, and he won’t keep that up forever. Mudiay is a sensible GPP pivot while Russell Westbrook is the clear top option at PG, and he would have found himself in this space had it not been so obvious.
Shooting Guard – DeMar DeRozan
I honestly can’t remember a time I’ve written up DeRozan in the past with the rest of the Raptors healthy – as a GPP player, his ceiling never seems to rise high enough to justify the price tag, but he almost always carries a really stable floor. The Raptors have been involved in quite a few one-sided affairs over the past month which has led to the starters seeing noticeably thinner minute allotments. While that wasn’t generally good news for DFS players who rostered DDR on those nights, his price is now starting to fall as a result (as is Lowry’s) and this is a spot where we could see DeRozan/Lowry take on their normal minute loads. DeRozan’s price has fallen to $7,500 on DraftKings, and he’s averaged 45 DK points per game over his three previous meetings with WAS this season. He’s got a really nice shot to keep up that level of success here. Devin Booker has plenty of appeal for another $600 on FanDuel, and his $8,400 tag on DraftKings also feels a little low.
Small Forward – Paul George
Since I didn’t get a chance to write up Russ, PG gets the nod at SF. He’s someone I’m making a point to roster on FanDuel, but the $9000 tag on DraftKings is a little tricky if you’re also trying to jam Russ into the same lineup, although it’s a perfectly suitable stacking strategy in GPPs. After a dreadful performance last week against the Warriors, George has gotten right back on track over his last two, scoring at least 42.5 DK points in each contest. Phoenix ranks 2nd in pace which gives the Thunder the second-biggest pace bump on the slate, and it certainly doesn’t hurt matters that OKC is projected for a whopping 9.8 points above their season average. The Suns simply don’t defend well and you can bet on Westbrook/PG taking full advantage of that tonight. If you’re looking to stack the other side, Devin Booker, Elfrid Payton, T.J. Warren and Alex Len all have appeal.
Power Forward – Blake Griffin
Much like the DeRozan call, this one comes down to price and a slew of slow recent production. Griffin is still acclimating to his new squad and they’ve been very up and down since his arrival, and a handful of lopsided contests has led to his minute loads to be held in check to a degree, and he’s also getting killed in the rebounding department relative to Andre Drummond. While Drummond should continue to win that battle on a nightly basis, the difference between the two is likely to slim down in the near future. Detroit has also been using him in somewhat of a point-forward role that should lead to some increased assist totals (relative to his last 4-5 games). Unlike DeRozan, I don’t think Griffin has quite as stable of a floor, but his ceiling is just as high if not higher. Griffin’s old teammate, Montrezl Harrell, has some appeal on the low-end at PF while Draymond Green and Dwight Powell are also squarely on my radar.
Center – Steven Adams
In case you can’t tell, I’m going to be very heavy on the Oklahoma City side. Adams has been playing massive minutes in games that stay close and the Thunder are single-digit road favorites in the game with the highest total of the night, so I’m not all that worried about a blowout. Phoenix ranks 22nd in DvP and 18th in defensive efficiency against centers, but they’ve had quite a few options at that position over the course of the season and Alex Len is just now starting to work into a regular role. Adams is a great bet for a double-double in this spot and he’s my favorite stacking partner alongside Westbrook given the correlation those two have thanks to easy looks at the rim.