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NFL DFS Cash Game Plays

by Justin Bailey
Updated On: October 4, 2018, 4:04 pm ET

I hope everybody had a profitable Week 9, hard to believe that we are in Week 10 already. Week 10 looks to be an interesting one, with six games that have over/unders of 47 or more points and two of those games projected to hit 50+ points. From a game theory standpoint, I am looking to pay down at wide receiver so that I am able to pay up at running back, quarterback or tight end. That tight end of course, is Rob Gronkowski. There aren’t many top-end receivers in matchups that I am particularly looking to exploit, which leads me wanting to pay at the other skill positions.

 

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Tom Brady ($9,100): Week 10 could be the best or worst cash game week of my DFS career. You’ll notice that there are going to be three Patriots on this list, and I am considering playing all three of them on the same cash team. However, I’ll probably end up splitting these players between two cash lineups, even though I am normally a single cash game lineup guy. Using all three in your cash lineup would be higher variance, but the return could be great if they all have a decent game, or each contributes to this 30.5 team total that the Patriots have. Tom Brady comes in $100 cheaper than Aaron Rodgers and he’s in a great spot against this Giants team that is ranked 26th in pass DVOA and has allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing QBs. It also doesn’t hurt that the Patriots have scored 71 percent of their passes inside the red zone via the pass.  He leads the league with 18 touchdown passes inside the red zone, including a league-high 61 pass attempts. Many were probably disappointed in Brady’s performance last week, but he basically hit his floor against Washington. Brady’s floor is as high as some of these cheap QBs ceilings and that’s part of the reason we pay for him is because he has such a high floor and high ceiling.

 

Blake Bortles ($7,800): I never thought I’d see the day where I recommend Blake Bortles as a cash game play this year, but here a I am. It’s hard to ignore his production that he’s garnered so far. Bortles has thrown for over 300 yards in three of his last four games, and was two yards shy of making that four of his last five games. His game against the Ravens has one of the higher over/unders at 48 points and the Ravens are a prime matchup for any quarterback. The Ravens have allowed two or more touchdown passes in six of their nine games and are allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks.

 

Mark Ingram ($7,500): Mark Ingram was my favorite play of the week last week, and he was slightly disappointing as he failed to find the end zone. While he was close, close only counts in horse grenades (Parks and Rec, anyone?) What I did like from Ingram was in the absence of Khiry Robinson, he saw a season-high 88 percent of snaps, while CJ Spiller saw just eight percent. Ingram is also a factor in the passing game, with 42 targets on the year. This game features the second-highest over/under with 50 total points and the Saints have an implied team total of 26 points. It’s hard not to like a guy who receives 40 percent of the red zone market share and is second in the league in carries inside the five yard line.

 

Darren McFadden ($7,000): While he’s healthy, I am going to keep riding this Darren McFadden train until something pops or breaks. McFadden has clearly established himself as the lead back in this offense. Since Week 7, McFadden hasn’t played any less than 78 percent of the snaps and he’s received 26 or more touches in all three of those games and McFadden has nine red zone opportunities the last three weeks. Tampa has a defense that ranks 10th in rush DVOA, but this is more about the price and volume than it is about the matchup.

 

Allen Robinson ($7,500): Since I am partial to Bortles, I am also on board with Allen Robinson, as I am most weeks. Robinson is actually my favorite overall play of the week. Robinson garners 26 percent of the market share for the Jags and he hasn’t seen fewer than nine targets in a game since Week 1. In fact, Robinson has double-digit targets in four of his nine games and Bortles has a 9.2 adjusted yards per attempt when throwing to Robinson.  The Ravens rank 28th in pass DVOA and give up the second-most FPPG to wide receivers. Robinson makes for an exceptional play at $7,500 and he has high-end WR1 upside in any given week.

 

Brandon LaFell ($6,200): Here is Patriot No. 2 … Brandon LaFell has started to establish himself in this offense after playing 72 percent or more snaps since he made his Week 7 debut. LaFell is an appealing source of salary relief in a game featured with an over/under of 55 points. With seven or more targets in his three games this year, I don’t see any reason not to select him as your WR2 on FanDuel. LaFell is the best option in this price range.

 

Rob Gronkowski ($8,000): Guess who leads the Patriots in targets from inside the 20? If you said Rob Gronkowski, you’re wrong. It’s Julian Edelman (16 to 15), but Gronk does lead them in targets inside the 10-yard line. Gronk has converted his nine targets for four receptions and three touchdowns. Gronk’s price has dropped $500 on FanDuel and he’s very affordable now. Facing off against a Giants’ defense that ranks 25th in DVOA at defending the tight end and has allowed the second-most FPPG to tight ends, Gronk is in one of the more favorable positions among all pass-catchers on Sunday.

 

Jordan Reed ($5,800): When it comes to tight end, I am either paying up for Gronk or using Jordan Reed. I usually ponder tight end all week, but this week is especially easy. Reed gets the luxury of playing the New Orleans Saints who are terrible in every aspect of playing defense. Reed has been one of the biggest factors in this offense when he’s healthy. Even missing two games, Reed leads all pass- catchers on the Redskins in red zone market share and he’s second on the team in overall market share. As this game has an over/under of 50, I tend to agree with Vegas that this game has potential to be high-scoring. The combination of what Vegas thinks, Reed’s usage and his price is what makes him my preferred tight end after Gronk.

Justin Bailey
Justin Bailey has been working with Rotoworld since 2015. His stat-forward analysis can also be found on FantasyLabs and 4for4. Follow him on Twitter - @justinbailey32.