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Rankings vs DFS Pricing Plays

by Rich Hribar
Updated On: October 4, 2018, 4:04 pm ET

As usual, the goal of this article is simple. At the end of the week, we’re taking our composite staff rankings from our Season Pass section in Week 12 and comparing those rankings as it pertains to players we see as starting caliber options to the pricing across the two major DFS sites in hopes of discovering some value. Since we’re taking pricing from the main slate here, the Thanksgiving slate has thrown things a bit off this week since it has already removed so many players from the player pool, so we’ll be highlighting some players listed here that are tighter to their pricing than normal.

 

Matt Ryan – QB5

FanDuel: QB8 ($7,600) DraftKings: QB9 ($6,400)


Ryan has been fine for fantasy purposes, but just hasn’t been able to get into the QB1 atmosphere. He’s thrown at least two touchdown passes in four straight games, but has passed for 250 yards in just two of his past seven games. That could change this week against a Tampa Bay defense allowing 317.3 passing yards per game to opposing passers, 31st in the league. Ryan himself has also had strong history in this spot, finishing as a top-9 scoring quarterback in each of his past four starts against Tampa Bay at home, throwing 10 touchdowns and one interception over those games with at least 20 fantasy points in each game.

 

Andy Dalton – QB11

FanDuel: QB14 ($7,200)


We always want to target Dalton against uncommon opponents, but Cleveland is one common one that he consistently crushes. Dalton has been a top-12 scoring quarterback in five consecutive games against the Browns, throwing 13 touchdowns to zero interceptions in those games while averaging 22.3 fantasy points per game. He has thrown multiple touchdowns in five straight games against the Browns, tying the longest streak of multiple touchdown passes allowed by the Browns to an opposing quarterback (Warren Moon 1989-1991). Cleveland is already a weekly target regardless of Dalton’s past versus them as Cleveland is allowing the third highest touchdown rate (6.3 percent) to opposing passers and is 23rd in passing points allowed per game (16.2) to quarterbacks.

 

Kareem Hunt – RB4

FanDuel: RB7 ($7,700) DraftKings: RB6 ($8,000)


Hunt has trailed off from being one of the highest scorers at his position to becoming a floor play due to the lack of scoring opportunities. Hunt has just five touches inside of the 10-yard line since Week 2 and the Chiefs have run just 18 total plays from that area of the field over that span, 30th in the league. You need to get close to the end zone to score as a running back, but this week, Hunt gets an incredible spot to bounce back to the pantheon of the position.  Opponents have run on 59.6 percent of their offensive plays against Buffalo over the past three weeks, the highest rate in the league. The Bills have allowed the most rushing yards over that span (698), allowing season-high yardage for the Jets (194 yards), Saints (298) and the second-most yards the Chargers have had in a game (146) on the season. For boosting scoring opportunities, Buffalo is allowing 5.3 red zone possessions per game over that span, the most in the league.  Also, don’t sweat Charcandrick West getting a few catches now as Hunt still had 21 of 31 RB touches last week and ran a season-high 27 pass routes.

 

Tevin Coleman – RB9

FanDuel: RB15 ($6,200) DraftKings: RB10 ($6,500)


With Devonta Freeman on the doubtful side of questionable for tomorrow, Coleman is once again an option, especially over on FanDuel. Against a stiff Seattle run defense, Coleman was only able to manage 58 yards from scrimmage, but more importantly amassed 21 touches, running his touch totals up to 18, 21 and 21 with Freeman sidelined over his career. That kind of volume will hold a lot more upside in a game at home against Tampa Bay. The Bucs are 19th in yards from scrimmage allowed to backfields per game (138.6) while ranking 23rd in touchdowns allowed per rushing attempt to the position.

 

Julio Jones – WR2

FanDuel: WR4 ($7,800) DraftKings: WR3 ($7,700)


Fantasy players are mounting frustration for Jones. He has been a WR1 just once on the season and has only one touchdown, but dodging his ceiling has been more about poor fortune. He is still is fourth in the league in receiving yards per game (78.6), leads all wide receivers in target rate per route (29.8 percent), and has a 31.4 percent target market share over the past five game. Like Ryan, who we already mentioned, Jones is also in a spot that he’s typically destroyed over the past against Tampa Bay. In 10 career games versus the Buccaneers, Julio Jones has 68 catches for 1,110 yards and eight touchdowns. He averages 22.5 fantasy points per game with at least 16.6 points in nine of those 10 games. Opposing wide receivers have accounted for 68.4 percent of the receiving yardage against Tampa Bay, the second-highest rate in the league and opposing WR1s facing Tampa Bay are averaging 17.8 points per game, the third-highest total in the league.

 

Cooper Kupp – WR27

FanDuel: WR39 ($5,400) DraftKings: WR31 ($5,000)


Kupp’s 19.0 percent target share has been just behind Robert Woods (21.8 percent) on the season and Woods is going to be inactive this Sunday at home against the Saints. The slot has given the Saints the most trouble, allowing double-digit points to all of Jarvis Landry, Jamison Crowder, Chris Hogan, Golden Tate and Adam Thielen on the season. He has had six receptions in each of the past two games, but Kupp also has a little more scoring juice than a typical interior receiver. He leads the Rams with 14 red zone targets while no other player on the team has more than six.  He’s one of the best WR3 options you can make in cash games this weekend.

 

Sammy Watkins – WR31

DraftKings: WR35 ($4,900)


Watkins has had more than five targets just once so far on the season and hasn’t had more than three receptions in a game since Week 3, but he also gets a lift with Woods inactive. He also gets a bonus from the hobbled Saints secondary that will be missing both Marshon Lattimore and Ken Crawley this weekend. He’s far from a safe commodity given his to date usage, but Watkins is set up for a volume boost in a matchup elevated by injuries while the Rams have one of the highest team totals (28) of the week.

 

Jared Cook: TE8

FanDuel: TE10 ($5,500)


Like all the Raiders, Cook was a no show last week in Mexico City. He matched a season-low with just two receptions for 36 yards, but prior to that was on a roll. He’s had five TE1 scoring weeks in the eight games that Derek Carr has played in full and is still the only tight end other than Travis Kelce to post multiple 100-yard games receiving. This weekend, targets should be funneled to him against Denver, who has still been tough on opposing receivers and has a history of handcuffing the Oakland receivers. Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper have combined to catch 31-of-64 targets (48.4 percent) for 298 yards and one touchdown in a combined seven games against Denver with both on the Raiders. Opposing teams target their tight ends 27.5 percent of the time, which is the second highest rate in the league, while 36.2 percent of the receiving yards gained against Denver have been posted by tight ends, the highest share in the league

Rich Hribar
Rich Hribar is a husband, father, sports meteorologist and a slave to statistics. A lifelong sports fan and fantasy gamer. You can find him on Twitter @LordReebs.