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RotoGrinder NFL Primer Week 13

by Stephen Keech
Updated On: December 3, 2018, 6:08 pm ET

Week 13 has arrived, and it’s already off to an interesting start with the Cowboys dropping 38 on the Redskins on the back of a 102-yard passing effort from Dak Prescott. Things have been a little weird in recent weeks, and the return of Josh Gordon doesn’t figure to make things any less interesting. It’s odd to be so intrigued with a 0-win team with a month left in the regular season, but to the Browns' credit they’ll at least have the viewership this weekend as they work towards the #1 pick.

 

 

Let’s get started with the Targets page, where you can find a full breakdown of targets, snaps and red-zone data on a sortable page.

 

 

 

Targets, Touches and Percentage of Workload


Mike Evans ($7,500 on FanDuel, $7,100 on DraftKings) – A week after allowing a 10-169-2 (12 targets) line to Antonio Brown, the Packers secondary – which had been getting whipped prior to the beating Brown put on them – will have to contend with Evans. He’s starving for some positive touchdown regression after his past four games (38 targets) have led to an absence from the painted grass. As fate would have it, the Packers have allowed the fifth-most receiving TDs to his position, so look for a bounce back with Winston set to play for the first time since November 5th. Evans is 10th in the league in targets overall and sits 4th in targets per game (he’s missed one so far) and the Bucs should continue to feed him in a mouthwatering matchup. He’s about as cheap as he’s been all year on FanDuel and the price is more than reasonable on DraftKings. Evans should be heavily targeted on DRAFT as well.

 

 

Jared Cook ($5,500 on FanDuel, $5,400 on DraftKings) – This couldn’t be a better opportunity for Cook to break out. He’s facing a Giants Defense that until the last two weeks had allowed a touchdown to a tight end in every game this season, and one of those scoreless efforts was an 8-109 line from Travis Kelce. Michael Crabtree will be serving a one-game suspension for having his chain snatched by Aqib Talib (the second time) and Amari Cooper’s chances of playing appear bleak, so Cook could be the de-facto #1 with Seth Roberts leading the receiving corps. Cook ranks 8th among TEs in Touch% on the year and with Carr’s top two weapons expected to sit, expect that number to climb steadily for Week 13. I’m going to have a lot of exposure to Gronk, but when I’m paying down in the mid-range, Cook will be my most sought-after option.

 

 

Carlos Hyde ($7,000 on FanDuel, $5,900 on DraftKings) – I’ve been playing Hyde a ton on DraftKings this year and that trend will continue yet again Sunday. He’s third among RBs in targets on the year while slotting 13th in carries, so the workload remains consistent regardless of game-flow. The only thing he’s been missing in recent weeks is a trip to the end-zone, but it’s impressive nonetheless that he’s posted double-digit FanDuel points in four of the last five, all without a touchdown. It’s tough to expect Hyde to churn out consistent rushing workloads, but the yardage he tacks on through the air helps fill that void and he’s not competing for goal-line work at the moment. A new quarterback under center throws a small wrench into the equation, although the 49ers don’t really have a reason to go away from Hyde as the work-horse to help get Garoppolo’s feet wet. I’ll have more exposure to him on DraftKings, but Hyde is a viable target industry-wide.

 

 

 

Wide Receiver/Cornerback Chart


The WR/CB chart is one of our DFS Premium products that helps to shed light on the best individual draws for wide receivers. Few corners shadow and few receivers spend all of their time lined up in one particular spot, so while this isn’t a cut-and-dry matchups page, the CB listed next to each WR is the coverage that player is expected to draw most often. You can see how often each player lines up in designated spots on the field which gives you a good indication of how often players will be in particular matchups.

 

 

Davante Adams ($6,500 on both FanDuel and DraftKings) – Adams has the top matchup rating on the board squaring off with Tampa Bay’s secondary. He’s expected to run most of his routes against Ryan Smith (8th lowest rating among CBs) and given Tampa’s struggles with the pass, this could be a spot where Brett Hundley gets going. Tampa ranks 30th in pass DVOA and in adjusted sack rate, so pressure shouldn’t be an issue which is good news for a guy like Adams who can do some damage down the field. Adams has been targeted at least eight times in six of his last seven games, making his $6,500 price tag on FanDuel look too good to pass up. If Adams can avoid Brent Grimes for a decent chunk of the day, he should have the best day among the Green Bay pass-catchers.

 

 

Brandin Cooks ($7,600 on FanDuel, $7,700 on DraftKings) – He’s been on fire with Chris Hogan out of action and steps into yet another favorable spot against E.J. Gaines and the Bills, who have allowed the third-most receptions to wideouts on the year. Cooks’ matchup ranks fifth on the Week 13 chart and if he’s going to continue seeing 7-9 looks per game with big-play potential, the sky is the limit. I’m still pretty certain that I’ll have more exposure to Rob Gronkowski than any other Patriot come Sunday afternoon, but I don’t mind stacking these two up along Brady with values plays plugged in. It seems like common knowledge that Gronk grew up in Buffalo and has had past success there, so his high ownership could lead to Cooks going slightly overlooked.

 

 

 

NFL Projections Page


This is one of the pages I put a lot of behind-the-scenes work into creating each week, and a lot of the information available within the projections page outside of the raw projection is valuable. From Vegas data to projected ownership to expert rankings, there is no shortage of content to sift through here. I’ll keep it simple this week and will break down a few of the top dollar per points – aka ‘value’ – plays on the board.

 

Tyrod Taylor ($5,400 on DraftKings) – Given the larger discrepancy in price between the high and low end QB options on DraftKings, I tend to make more of an effort to pay down at quarterback there. Taylor happens to rank as our top dollar per point play at the position for Week 13, as he’ll draw the Patriots at home as a big underdog which is expected to give him an uptick in volume. It’s still not safe to expect the Bills to throw it 40 times, but if Taylor can chuck it 30-35 times with some production on the ground, he should hit value at $5,400. The Patriots Defense hasn’t allowed more than 20 points since October 1st, but they’ve faced only one real threat offensively in the Falcons, and that game was played in some weird weather conditions.

 

 

Todd Gurley ($8,800 on FanDuel) – Even the expensive players can find themselves towards the top of the dollar per point rankings. Gurley comes in at $8,800, the most expensive back on the main slate, but he’s also the second-best $/point play on FanDuel with a 2.43 points/$K rating. He’s projected for nearly three more points than the next closest back on the main slate (Fournette) and has a secure floor given his consistent usage as a receiver. It’s not going to hurt his cause that Robert Woods’ target share is now out of the picture and I expect game-flow to work in his favor against an Arizona team that should struggle to keep pace with LA’s offense.

 

 

 

Value Town!


For those who haven’t spent time in these parts, Value Town sheds light on some salary-saving options that’ll allow you the flexibility to roster some big names. I’ll list a handful of options at each position under a certain salary threshold, and will list them in the order I’d prefer to roster them in (ranked in order of tournament preference). This will only include players that are included in both major sites main slate, so no Sunday night/Monday night players.

 

Quarterbacks

  1. Tyrod Taylor ($7,300 on FanDuel, $5,400 on DraftKings)
  2. Brett Hundley ($6,400 on FanDuel, $5,100 on DraftKings) – Too cheap given the draw with Tampa’s pass defense. He’s had a flurry of tough matchups lately and this is his strongest in a while.
  3. Jameis Winston ($7,300 on FanDuel, $5,600 on DraftKings) – He’s a really nice GPP play in his first game back, but the re-injury risk is there.

 

Running Backs

  1. Jamaal Williams ($5,700 on FanDuel, $4,700 on DraftKings) – If Aaron Jones plays this one becomes far riskier, but otherwise Williams is a strong volume-based play.
  2.  Kenyan Drake ($5,800 on FanDuel, $4,900 on DraftKings) – Fellow backfield mate Damien Williams is expected to sit, which would lead to more of the work falling in Drake’s lap.
  3. Duke Johnson ($5,700 on FanDuel, $4,800 on DraftKings) – The Browns keep talking about getting him more involved, and maybe with everyone focused on Josh Gordon this will finally be the week it happens.

 

Wide Receivers

  1. Cordarrelle Patterson ($5,500 on FanDuel, $3,400 on DraftKings) – If you really want to make your Sunday afternoon sweat an exhilarating one, sit tight for a contest with a lot of exposure to Patterson. It’s about as nerve-wracking of a proposition as I can consider but with Seth Roberts – the receiver likely to be more popular – set to tangle primarily with the Giants best cover corner, Patterson should benefit on the outside. It doesn’t hurt that he tends to carry the ball a few times each game.
  2. Davante Adams ($6,500 on FanDuel) – Just way too cheap here.
  3. Demaryius Thomas ($5,300 on DraftKings) – QB problems aside, this price tag makes him an appealing target.

 

Tight Ends

  1. Jared Cook ($5,400 on FanDuel)
  2. Julius Thomas ($3,500 on DraftKings) – I won’t have much exposure but it’s honestly the first time I’ve even considered him as an option this season.
  3. C.J. Fiedorowicz ($2,800 on DraftKings) – Your DraftKings sub $3K play of the week. It’s really a bummer to have to rely on Tom Savage’s arm, but the targets should be there.
Stephen Keech
Stephen "SBK" Keech is a head-to-head specialist who has shot up to being ranked in the Top 100 for Overall, MLB, NBA, and NHL. SBK’s a lead contributor on RotoGrinders, and can be found on Twitter @StephByronKeech.