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MLB DFS Bargains: Friday 5/17

by Brad Johnson

The new MLB DFS Bargains is back! We’ll split the analysis into three groups: very cheap, mid-tier, and expensive. A greater emphasis will be placed on the lower end of the price scale.

Please note, these player picks were organized early in the day. For MLB contests, always check lineups and weather closer to game time. Rain, wind, or unexpected managerial decisions could open up additional sources of value. Be sure to keep an eye on the MLB Headlines and Injuries desk.

Editor’s Note: Stay ahead of the competition from wire to wire with rankings, customizable projections, trade evaluator, exclusive columns and more in our Season Pass. And start using optimized lineups with our DFS Toolkit!

The entire 15-game slate is available tonight.

DIRT CHEAP BARGAINS

Aaron Sanchez – SP – Toronto Blue Jays (at White Sox)

For our purposes, Sanchez’s greatest weakness are a modest strikeout rate and way too many walks. A visit to the aggressive White Sox should mitigate these issues. Not only does Chicago have fourth most strikeouts, they also have the fifth fewest walks. Sanchez has squeezed out a few more strikeouts this season by using his curve more frequently. Count on around five to six innings with a like number of strikeouts.

Christin Stewart – OF – Detroit Tigers (vs Frankie Montas)

Miguel Cabrera – 1B – Detroit Tigers (vs Frankie Montas)

I happen to like Montas tonight as a solid mid-tier pick. However, it’s also true that several useful Tigers hitters are extremely inexpensive. Stewart is my favorite option, he’s a fly ball hitter who should contribute a 30-home run pace. Montas has used a splitter to turn the corner from 26th man to useful major league starter. Fly ball hitters have the best matchup against the pitch – especially if he hangs one. Cabrera is a higher floor, lower ceiling alternative. Although he’s still among the league leaders in hard contact, it’s mostly on the ground. A home run is unlikely. Multiple hits or walks are possible.

Nicky Lopez – 2B – Kansas City Royals (at Matt Harvey)

Of the many recent call ups, Lopez is my favorite. Not because I think he’ll be the most productive, I simply have an ascetic preference for contact hitters with more walks than strikeouts. Lopez offers an extremely high floor as the Royals second hitter. You’re looking for multiple hits, walks, and runs rather than a home run. A Royals stack against Harvey might be semi-popular.

Also Consider: Brian Dozier, Chad Pinder, Danny Jansen

MID-TIER MUST PLAYS

Khris Davis – OF – Oakland Athletics (at Daniel Norris)

I have a standing recommendation for Davis in GPPs. He’s always among the best bets for multiple home runs. Indeed, when I recommended him on Monday, he complied with a pair of homers. Although Davis isn’t a platoon masher, a matchup against homer-prone Norris is extremely favorable. The only point against Davis is that both he and Norris are fly ball guys. That could yield towering outs rather than home runs. The Detroit bullpen is bad enough to ignore this supposed shortcoming.

Also Consider: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Matt Chapman

HIGH PRICED VALUES

Cody Bellinger – OF – Los Angeles Dodgers (at Anthony DeSclafani)

If I had a million dollars, I’d run a Dodgers stack tonight at Great American Ballpark. DeSclafani is a decent pitcher who induces over a strikeout per inning. He’s also consistently homer prone, and the venue is doing him no favors. Since the full stack is expensive, consider selecting a one-off of Bellinger. The breakout star has as many walks as strikeouts supported by a massive, unforeseeable improvement in contact rate.

Also Consider: Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, Joc Pederson, Max Muncy

Brad Johnson
You can read more from Brad Johnson on Rotoworld, FanGraphs, and RotoBaller. Find him on Patreon and Twitter @BaseballATeam.