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MLB DFS Bargains: Friday 7/12

by Brad Johnson

Welcome to MLB DFS Bargains. We’ll split the analysis into three groups: very cheap, mid-tier, and expensive. A greater emphasis will be placed on the lower end of the price scale.

Please note, these player picks were organized early in the day. For MLB contests, always check lineups and weather closer to game time. Rain, wind, or unexpected managerial decisions could open up additional sources of value. Be sure to keep an eye on the MLB Headlines and Injuries desk.

Editor’s Note: Stay ahead of the competition from wire to wire with rankings, customizable projections, trade evaluator, exclusive columns and more in our Season Pass. And start using optimized lineups with our DFS Toolkit!

We have 13 games on the agenda this evening.

DIRT CHEAP BARGAINS

Danny Duffy – SP – Kansas City Royals (vs Tigers)

Duffy is a consistent mid-tier option, and yet he’s priced as a bargain against one of the worst offenses in the league. Sure, the Tigers aren’t as rough against left-handed pitching, but they’re still a below-average unit. Duffy figures to deliver something similar to a quality start with a half dozen strikeouts. He’s a no-brainer pairing with a more expensive feature like a premium stack or an ace.

Chase Anderson – SP – Milwaukee Brewers (vs Giants)

Although San Francisco went into the All Star Break on a bit of an offensive high note, the composition of their roster still bears more resemblance to a Triple-A squad than other major league units. Anderson is the latest hurler to face the gift that keeps on giving. This season, he’s recorded over a strikeout per inning while juggling some modest issues with home runs (1.35 HR/9). He’s also featured a career-best velocity and swinging strike rate. As with Duffy, he can be expected to produce something like a quality start with six strikeouts. He’s priced similarly to Duffy too.

J.D. Davis – OF – New York Mets (at Caleb Smith)

New York undoubtedly hopes to give Smith a rude welcome back from the injured list. Davis typically bats somewhere in the top four hitters when facing a left-handed pitcher. He’s a powerful ground ball hitter which fits snuggly with Smith’s high fly ball rate. There’s an elevated chance for a home run in this particular matchup.

Matt Thaiss – 3B – Los Angeles Angels (vs Mike Leake)

Leake is a run-of-the-mill mid-tier pitcher. In the abstract, he’s not dissimilar to Duffy or Anderson. However, he’s both more expensive tonight and set to face a harsher opponent. Thaiss debuted recently. He bats down in the Angels lineup. His approach is characterized by better than average power complimented by refined plate discipline. He’s likely to reach base at least once versus Leake and a weak Mariners bullpen.

Also Consider: Dinelson Lamet, Ji-Man Choi

MID-TIER MUST PLAYS

Joey Votto –1B – Cincinnati Reds (at Jon Gray)

Votto’s power may be kaput, but a visit to Coors Field is just too good to be true – especially at these prices. Despite disappointing results, Votto still reaches base at a high rate and makes plenty of contact. The spacious venue doesn’t just bolster home runs. It increases hits of all types. The entire Reds stack is quite attractive tonight. Shockingly, Gray has pitched better at home this season, twirling an impressive 3.35 ERA.

Also Consider: Robbie Ray, Scooter Gennett, Khris Davis

HIGH PRICED VALUES

Yordan Alvarez – OF – Houston Astros (vs Jesse Chavez)

It’s hard to walk away from the living meteor shower known as Yordan Alvarez. The 22-year-old lefty slugger hammered 23 home runs in 253 Triple-A plate appearances. He’s kept up the pace in the majors, launching another seven big flies in 86 plate appearances. While strikeouts have piled up in his first taste of the bigs, he’s batting an incredible .338/.407/.701. Amazingly, he’s priced on the lower end of the “high priced” range.

Also Consider: Austin Meadows, Tommy Pham, Alex Bregman, David Dahl,

Brad Johnson
You can read more from Brad Johnson on Rotoworld, FanGraphs, and RotoBaller. Find him on Patreon and Twitter @BaseballATeam.