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MLB DFS Plays: Wednesday 7/29

by Louis Cangiano
Updated On: July 29, 2020, 6:30 pm ET

Pitchers:

Danny Duffy - Kansas City Royals (@ DET) - DK: $7,100 FD: $6,400 Yahoo: $30
Danny Duffy is a great GPP play tonight. My secret play if you will. The Detroit Tigers currently lead the league in team strikeouts with 55 over 133 at-bats. The Tigers are also batting a team .203 average which ranks 7th lowest in the MLB and facing left-handed Danny Duffy in Detroit. Despite a small sample size (28 at-bats), the Tigers are batting .179 against left-handed pitching this season with only one home run. Danny Duffy had a tough first outing against Cleveland, but tonight he’ll get back on track against a Detroit team that strikes out the most in the league and can’t hit left-handed pitching. Yes, this is a risky play - but for GPP purposes, Danny Duffy makes my top plays list. The Royals are slight underdogs at +125 with a 9.5 under/over. Duffy could realistically be in the optimal lineup tonight. That's a bold call! Do you have the guts to play him?!

Charlie Morton - Tampa Bay Rays (@ Atl) - DK: 10,800 FD: $9,400 Yahoo: $46

This is more of a “safer” cash game play. The Atlanta Braves strike out the second most in the MLB with 52 so far this season. To go along with their high strikeout numbers, Atlanta’s team batting average and on-base percentage are very low at .222 and .273, respectively. Atlanta is on a two game losing streak and is currently 2-3 this season. Charlie Morton is a right-handed ace with a tough first outing against the Toronto Blue Jays where he allowed six earned runs over 4.0 innings pitched. Tonight, he gets back on track against a Braves team hitting .248 against opposing right-handed pitchers with 34 strikeouts over 101 at-bats. That’s a 33% strikeout rate! Lock in Charlie Morton tonight for cash or GPP tournaments on FanDuel, DraftKings or Yahoo, you will not regret it. The Tampa Bay Rays are slight underdogs at +108 with a 8.5 under/over.

Rotoworld’s Players Projections can be one of the most useful tools for constructing your Daily Fantasy lineups. I start every morning checking the Rotoworld projections and comparing them to FanDuel’sDraftKings and Yahoo’s salaries. 

Catcher

Salvador Perez - Kansas City Royals (@ Det) - DK: $2,600 FD: $2,800 Yahoo: $16

Salvador Perez disappointed big-time last night. Tonight, we return to the well as Perez is facing Detroit's SP Matthew Boyd. Boyd had a poor first start against the Reds allowing four earned over five innings pitched. In 2019, Boyd allowed 32 home runs to opposing righties (compared to seven home runs allowed by opposing lefties). Also in 2019, Matthew Boyd allowed a 6.00 ERA to Kansas City over five game starts, as well as allowing a .303 team BA to the Royals. The Royals are also my favorite stack of the day! The Kansas City Royals are slight underdogs at +125 with a 9.5 under/over.

Tyler Heineman - San Francisco Giants (vs. SD) - DK: $4,000 FD: $2,200 Yahoo: $7

Tyler Heineman is an incredibly talented young player who will break out at some point this season. Tonight, he faces San Diego's SP Chris Paddack. Paddack had a stellar first start of the season against Arizona totaling 18.0 DK points. In 2019 Paddack played the Giants five times and pitched pretty well against them. Having said that, the longball was a problem. Considering tonight’s game is in Oracle Park, one of the toughest home runs stadiums in the MLB, Paddack might be fine. With that said, don’t count out Tyler Heineman on any given night as his talents will shine through sooner rather than later. 

First Base

Justin Smoak - Milwaukee Brewers (@ Pit) - DK: $3,800 FD: $2,700 Yahoo: $15

Smoak is facing Joe Musgrove, who has not looked well this season. Musgrove - currently 0-1 with a 4.76 ERA, struggles vs. left-handed batters. In 2019, he allowed a .270 batting average with an .803 OPS to lefties. Milwaukee has some solid lefties including Christian YelichJustin Smoak (switch), Eric SogardLogan Morrison and Omar NarvaezBen Gamel is another left-handed batter that I can see performing against Musgrove. Pittsburgh’s righty is going to have a tough time tonight against the boom or bust Brewers and their abundance of talented left-handed batters. The Milwaukee Brewers are favored by -157 with an 8.5 under/over.

Second Base

Adam Frazier - Pittsburgh Pirates (vs. Mil) - DK: $3,600 FD: $2,200 Yahoo: $9

*Value* Adam Frazier is 4 for 10 against the Brewers SP Brandon Woodruff with one triple and one walk. Woodruff struggles vs lefties - with them hitting .375 in his first outing this season. In addition, in 2019, lefties hit .265 which is high compared to his .218 allowed batting average to opposing right-handed batters. The Pittsburgh Pirates have some solid lefties including Adam Fraizer, Josh Bell (switch), Colin MoranGregory PolancoBryan Reynolds (switch) and Jarrod Dyson. There’s value all over the Pirates lineup tonight. The Pirates are underdogs at +133 with an 8.5 under/over .

If you are multi-entering or simply looking for the right “one-off” to complete your lineup, make sure that you’re using the RotoWorld Optimizer. Work smart, not hard!

Shortstop

Amed Rosario - New York Mets (vs. Bos) - DK: $4,600 FD: $2,600 Yahoo: $11

Nathan Eovaldi exhibits reverse splits in 2019 and this season. What are reverse splits? Reverse splits are when a pitcher has worse numbers against opposing batters who are on the same side of the plate as their throwing arm, for example, a right-handed pitcher who has worse stats against a right-handed batter would be said to have reverse splits. A right-handed pitcher typically has the advantage against a right-handed batter. This is not the case tonight! In 2019, Eovaldi allowed a .285 batting average to opposing righties while lefties were hitting .266. In 2020, (in small sample sizes) right-handed batters are hitting .333 with an .885 OPS while left-handed batters have a .100 batting average. Why am I saying all this? Considering Nathan Eovaldi’s reverse splits, we could potentially see some right-handed Mets have an advantage tonight while rostered at a lower rate. A back-end Mets stack could be interesting for GPP purposes.

Third Base

J.D. Davis 3B/OF - New York Mets (vs. Bos) - DK: $3,800 FD: $2,200 Yahoo: $12

Here’s another right-handed Met that I love tonight. Called him last night, he went two for three with a two-run homer and his salary has yet to increase at all. Even though he is averaging 20.1 FD PPG over his last two games, J.D. Davis should go overlooked. He has yet to face Eovaldi in the majors and they are no longer in Fenway, they are now in Citi Field, a much tougher place to hit. The Mets are favored at -200 with a 7.5 under/over. 

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Outfield

Christian Yelich - Milwaukee Brewers (@ Pit) - DK: $5,900 FD: $4,300 Yahoo: $21

Play of the day! Christian Yelich is off to a rough start this season. Yes, he had that one home run against Chicago in the second game of the season but really, he’s done nothing since then. Tonight, he faces Joe Musgrove, and Yelich has sported a .385 batting average with a double, triple and a home run in 13 at-bats. The ability Christian Yelich has shown to hit Musgrove for doubles, triples and a home run bodes well with me. Remember, it is not always about the batting averages when talking about BvP stats. There are many different factors to consider, noticing when a player has a variety of different types of production is important (especially in a small sample size like we have here).As I mentioned above, Musgrove has not looked well this season. Currently 0-1 with a 4.76 ERA, Musgrove has a problem with left-handed batters. In 2019, he allowed a .270 batting average with an .803 OPS to lefties. Milwaukee has some solid lefties including Christian YelichJustin Smoak (switch), Eric SogardLogan Morrison and Omar Narvaez.” The Brewers are favored by -157 with an 8.5 under/over.

Top Stacks

  • Kansas City Royals
  • Milwaukee Brewers
  • New York Mets
  • Pittsburgh Pirates - GPP only
Louis Cangiano

Louis Cangiano has been an avid DFS player since his freshman year of college at the University of Rhode Island. Now a 3x live finalist, Louis is currently a full-time Daily Fantasy Player, having previously provided content at: DFSArmy, TheQuantEdge, EliteFantasy and SiriusXM Radio, specializing in MLB and NBA GPP plays. You can find Louis on Twitter @JaguarDFS.