Los Angeles Dodgers (vs. Max Fried)
Fried allows a .294 team batting average with four home runs to the Dodgers over 58 at bats. The Dodgers are favored by -150 with an 8.5 O/U. Players including Turner, Muncy and Pollock exhibit impressive numbers against Fried. In his last game start, Fried allowed two runs off three hits over just 1.0 inning. The Dodgers are batting very well as of late and Justin Turner is my top play of the day, batting 4 for 7 with a home run against Fried. The Dodgers as a whole are batting .288 with seven home runs this postseason in 111 at bats against opposing lefties. Love me the Dodgers today.
Other Stacks: Houston Astros (vs. Charlie Morton)
Walker Buehler - Los Angeles Dodgers (vs. Atlanta Braves)
Buehler has allowed a .172 overall batting average to the Atlanta Braves over 72 at bats. He has struck out 18 Braves. Buehler has held Atlanta to a .623 OPS and a .279 wOBA. Buehler is allowing a sub .180 batting average to opposing lefties and righties. The Dodgers rightie has a 1.31 home ERA in 2020. With a 3.44 season ERA, Buehler is a viable cash and GPP play for today’s 2 game slate. Expect him to be highly rostered but he’s worth the chalk.
Other SP Option: Lance McCullers - Houston Astros (vs. Tampa Bay Ray)
Will Smith - Los Angeles Dodgers (vs. Max Fried)
Fried allows a .294 team batting average with four home runs to the Dodgers over 58 at bats. Smith is expected to bat 5th today and will be matching up against the left handed Fried. In 2 of his last 3 games, Smith has reached double digit fantasy points with a home run in his most recent game. Selecting a catcher for today’s slate really boils down to Smith or d’Arnaud. d’Arnaud has struggled as of late with a combined total of 22 DK points over his last 5 games. Between the two, Smith is the obvious choice. While both players are currently slumping, give me the power bat in the middle of the Dodgers lineup, struggling or not. Smith is starting to turn it around. The Dodgers are favored by -150 with an 8.5 O/U. He will benefit off Dodger production with runs and RBI opportunity.
Other C Option: Travis d’Arnaud - Atlanta Braves (vs. Walker Buehler) *hedge*
Freddie Freeman - Atlanta Braves (vs. Walker Buehler)
In 10 at bats, Freeman has only two hits against Buehler. With that said, those two hits were home runs. Freeman will need to produce for Atlanta today in a big way. Seven of the batters in the Braves starting lineup are hitting sub .222 against Buehler. The sample sizes of these BVP numbers are relatively high and I believe can be trusted. It’s imperative on a two game slate to try to be a little different if you want to take down a GPP tournament. Rostering Walker Buehler along with Freeman as a one-off could be a solid GPP play even though they are facing each other.
Jose Altuve - Houston Astros (vs. Charlie Morton)
Altuve is starting to heat up. With hits in each of his last seven games, we can now trust Altuve for GPP and cash formats. Tonight he faces Morton. Morton last pitched against Houston on October 12th lasting 5.0 innings and allowing only five hits (zero runs). Morton must face a tough Houston lineup for a second time in five days. This is not a simple task. Because of this, the Houston Astros are my second favorite stack of the day. The Astros are underdogs at +105 with a 8.0 O/U.
Justin Turner - Los Angeles Dodgers - (vs. Max Fried)
Turner is batting .571 with a home run in just seven at bats against Fried. He’s been cold with a .194 batting average over his last 36 at bats. The long ball has not been there either. But similar to the reasoning for my Seager call a few nights back, MLB stats return to the norm. Players adjust and so will the stats. Seager’s stats did and so will Turner’s. Turner will come around sooner rather than later. Make sure you invest in him at lower percentages.
Corey Seager - Los Angeles Dodgers (vs. Max Fried)
Blurb from Wednesday’s write up, “Seager has been struggling over his last 37 at bats posting just a .216 batting average with two home runs. Due to these struggles, Seager could be under rostered. Corey Seager comes back in a big way tonight against Wright and the Atlanta Braves.” The reason that I'm reposting this from Wednesday’s article is to show the importance of seeing potential in players/matchups and not just what they've done recently. Finding low rostered value is the key to daily fantasy in a nutshell. On Wednesday, Seager scored 29 DF points at a 22% roster percentage. Expect much of the same today against Max Fried.
Other SS Play: Carlos Correa - Houston Astros (vs Charlie Morton)
Mookie Betts - Los Angeles Dodgers (vs. Max Fried)
Mookie Betts hit 15 DK points last game. He’s batting .294 over his last ten games and is still leading off. He’s only averaging 8.7 DK points over that span but there’s room for improvement. The Dodgers are favored by -150 with an 8.5 O/U. Players including Turner, Muncy and Pollock exhibit impressive numbers against Fried. In his last game start Fried allowed two runs off three hits over just 1.0 inning pitched. Betts will benefit from an LA onslaught, which is what i’m expecting.
Austin Barnes - Top Value