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Daily

Daily Forecast: Let's Brew

by Brad Johnson
Updated On: October 4, 2018, 4:09 pm ET

It's an All Play evening with 15 glorious games. Weather shouldn't affect things, although it could delay start times in St. Louis and Chicago.

 

The stack of the day comes from Milwaukee, where the home town Brewers will face Toronto's J.A. Happ. His career platoon split isn't huge, although he does allow more hits and power to righties. The main issue is his talent level - he fits in at the back of a rotation. The Brewers can stack a murderer's row of righties, many of whom destroy left-handed pitching. The Brewers tend to be expensive, but a Milwaukee stack is easier to purchase than a similar group from the Angels or Tigers. Here's where things get weird. Despite the presence of so many platoon bashers, the Brewers lineup as a whole ranks in the bottom third against left-handed pitching. I'm willing to dismiss that tidbit as an outlier and move on. A lineup with Jonathan Lucroy, Ryan Braun, and Carlos Gomez (among others) can't actually be bad against southpaws. It's inconceivable. 

 

Editor's Note: Rotoworld's partner FanDuel is hosting a one-day $125,000 Fantasy Baseball league for Tuesday night's MLB games. It's $25 to join and first prize is $15,000. Starts at 7:05pm ET on Tuesday. Here's the FanDuel link.

 

TOP SHELF


Jose Altuve - HOU: The Astros leadoff man will have the platoon advantage at Yankee Stadium. He's not a big power threat, but the possibility for a home run exists. More importantly, he'll face a mediocre pitcher in Chris Capuano and could rack up a multi-hit game.

 

Giancarlo Stanton - MIA: Stanton draws a matchup with Miles Mikolas - he of the 7.71 ERA, 5.25 FIP, 37 percent fly ball rate, and 12 percent HR/FB ratio. Only one factor stands against Stanton - the game is at Marlins Stadium. Stanton's power is seemingly undaunted by his home park's dimensions, so it's not a huge consideration. If Mikolas bothers to pitch to Stanton, big things could happen.

 

Robinson Cano - SEA: Cano will play in Philadelphia, where he's more likely to display a power stroke than Safeco Field. He'll face his former teammate A.J. Burnett who is still battling a hernia suffered early in the season. Unsurprisingly, the right-hander's numbers are a big step down from his impressive 2013 season. Cano's also been mildly disappointing, although his performance is right where we should have expected it.

 

Also Consider: Mike Trout - LAA, Jose Reyes - TOR, Carlos Gomez - MIL

 

BULK PURCHASE

 

Anthony Rizzo - CHC: The Giants are unleashing Ryan Vogelsong on the Cubs. Vogey has bounced back this season, primarily by getting his home run rate back under control. He's also increased his velocity back over 90 mph and buffed his strikeout rate in the process. Vogelsong comes with notable splits. Lefties hit him for a .281/.326/.440 line. Rizzo actually has a reverse platoon split this season, although small sample size probably explains that anomaly. Over his career, he's been quite a bit better against righties than lefties.

 

Buster Posey - SFG: It's a weird year for Posey. He's never really caught fire at any point, but he's still produced at a solid level. Included in his solid production is a healthy .295/.348/.459 against lefties. He'll face southpaw Tsuyoshi Wada today at Wrigley Field. The combination should bring out the best version of 2014 Posey.

 

Josh Willingham - KAN: The Royals are visiting Coors Field and their clutch of left-handed starting pitchers. Tyler Matzek gets the call tonight, which bodes well for Willingham. He's always possessed platoon splits and this year is no different - he's hitting .256/.372/.474 against southpaws. Add in the Coors Field effect and there is potential for a big night. A few nitpicks to consider: he seems to bat sixth for the Royals, and his lofty strikeout rate makes him a high variance pick.

 

Also Consider: Jonathan Lucroy - MIL, Steve Pearce - BAL, Kyle Seager - SEA

 

BARGAIN BIN

 

Evan Gattis - ATL: Gattis has been laying low since returning from the disabled list. He has a difficult matchup against Francisco Liriano, but it's still pretty exciting to find Gattis in the bargain bin with the platoon advantage. The game is at spacious PNC Park, so look to use Gattis only if you can't fit one of the better catchers above into your lineup.

 

Billy Butler - KAN: Butler's been a disappointment on many levels this season, but he's hit well in the second half - .312/.348/.486. Half season split stats are arbitrary, so it's important to avoid putting too much weight on them. That said, Butler is swinging the way we expect, filling in at first base for Eric Hosmer, and about to start a series at Coors Field. Huzzah.

 

Derek Jeter - NYY: Jeter's done as a fantasy asset, but you can still try to tickle a little value out of his combination of bargain bin price and lineup slot. He'll have the platoon advantage against a adequate pitcher in Brett Oberholtzer. You can't expect power or even a multi-hit game from Jeter, but he's a solid value if you need to squeeze a dirt cheap option into the lineup. It's difficult to get production out of the shortstop position, so it's not a bad place to skimp.

 

Also Consider: Kennys Vargas - MIN, Omar Infante - KAN, Shin-Soo Choo - TEX

 

STARTING PITCHER

 

Stephen Strasburg - WAS: Strasburg earns top billing tonight with a start against the Diamondbacks. Strasburg is at home, which increases his chance of a win slightly. More importantly, he's against a Diamondbacks lineup that was impotent when it had Paul Goldschmidt to anchor it. Now the big bat for Arizona is either a guy who spent most of the season on the disabled list (Mark Trumbo) or a catcher who looks gassed (Miguel Montero). 

 

Jered Weaver - LAA: Weaver is on here for one reason and one reason alone - he has a very good shot at a win against Allen Webster. Weaver averages about six and one-third innings per start with a league average strikeout rate. The Boston lineup is pretty soggy these days, so it all seems to add up for the veteran.

 

Chris Capuano - NYY: Here's a guy I never expected to recommend. His value is derived from his low price, which is helped by his time in the bullpen. The Yankees have gotten at least six innings out of every Capuano start. The lefty will face a Houston lineup that is prone to strikeouts. If you prefer to target Yankees, Oberholtzer (listed below), has a similar mix of left-handedness and ability to last deep into the game.

 

Also Consider - Hisashi Iwakuma - SEA, Chase Anderson - ARI, Brett Oberholtzer - HOU

Brad Johnson
You can read more from Brad Johnson on Rotoworld, FanGraphs, and RotoBaller. Find him on Patreon and Twitter @BaseballATeam.