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Daily Forecast: Mighty Marlins

by Spencer Limbach
Updated On: October 4, 2018, 4:09 pm ET

Although they aren't in as good of a spot as last night, I still believe there is some merit in stacking a few Marlin bats in your lineups.

 

First off, all of them except for Giancarlo Stanton come at a very reasonable price, which will allow you to pay up for a top-tier pitcher. Secondly, they'll face off against the mediocre pitching of Jordan Lyles, who owns a .354 wOBA vs LHB. Most importantly, Miami will enjoy one of the largest "park shifts" in baseball from Marlins Park to Coors Field.

 

Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, and Garrett Jones would be the core plays of this stack. Marcell Ozuna is a nice tournament option with power upside, while Casey McGehee serves as a cheap 3B play if you need to save some cap space. 

 

TOP SHELF


Jacoby Ellsbury (OF) – NYY – EARLY: Ellsbury checks in as one of the top hitters, even though his $3,800 reflects more of a “bulk purchase” item. It would be wise to jump on such a discount, given the kind matchup vs Scott Carroll (.385 wOBA vs LHB) in Yankee Stadium.

 

Corey Dickerson (OF) – COL: Platoon advantage, hot streak, Coors Field: the only thing keeping Dickerson from “must play” status is Tom Koehler’s reverse wOBA split, meaning he’s actually tougher on left-handed batters. Still, Dickerson owns an elite .394 wOBA vs righties, and he should be right in the thick of things for the highest projected scoring team of the day.

 

Christian Yelich (OF) – MIA: His teammate, Giancarlo Stanton, monopolizes the hype and glory (he’s another elite play today), but don’t forget about Miami’s young leadoff man. Yelich profiles well tonight against Lyles’ .354 wOBA (.361 this yr) vs LHB, and even though he’s not a power hitter, the “Coors Factor” still gives him a nice boost in run, RBI, and on-base potential.

 

Also Consider: Giancarlo Stanton (OF) – MIA, Jose Reyes (SS) – TOR, Miguel Cabrera (1B) – DET – EARLY & LATE, Jose Bautista (OF) – TOR, Yoenis Cespedes (OF) - BOS

 

BULK PURCHASE


Adrian Beltre (3B) – TEX: Royals pitcher Jeremy Guthrie is average at best, and Beltre actually hits right-handers better than southpaws (.386 wOBA vs .369). Guthrie has been known to give up the long ball, and Global Life Park in Arlington won’t help his cause. I like Beltre to outperform his modest $3,200 tag on FanDuel.

 

Justin Morneau (1B) – COL: Morneau was on fire before sitting out a few games this week due to neck soreness. He was back in the lineup last night, picking up right where he left off with a 2-4, HR, 2 RBI performance. He may be a little more “boom or bust” than his previously mentioned teammate, Dickerson, but Morneau has the upside of a top-tier first baseman this evening. As another option, Matt Adams of the Cardinals makes for a fine pivot at 1B to save a little cash. Kennys Vargas and Joe Mauer are great early slate options…just to give you a few bonus picks.

 

Alex Gordon (OF) – KC: Even though he didn’t do much yesterday, Gordon is normally an extremely solid cash game play, exemplified by his four straight multi-hit streak last week. A huge shift in park factor plus a great draw vs Nick Tepesch (.344 wOBA vs LHB) should be enough to get KC’s best slugger back on track.

 

Also Consider: Evan Longoria (3B) – TB – EARLY, Danny Santana (SS) – EARLY, Dustin Pedroia (2B) – EARLY, Brett Gardner (OF) – EARLY, Charlie Blackmon (OF) - COL

 

BARGAIN BIN


Dee Gordon (2B) – LAD: From one Gordon to the other; Dee suffered a mini-slump last week, but he’s back to flying around the base paths after a 3-hit game last night. Mets’ pitcher Jacob deGrom has been extremely solid this season, but he’s making his first start since coming off the DL. Gordon is a great “buy low” candidate at $2,800 on FanDuel, especially given his stolen base upside.

 

Garrett Jones (1B) – MIA: I mentioned earlier how Rockies starter Jordan Lyles has a susceptibility to lefties. Enter Jones, current owner of a five game hit streak, and likely batting cleanup with the added Coors Field power bump…all for $2,500 on FanDuel.

 

Brian McCann (C) – NYY – EARLY: I’ve mentioned this several times over the year, but McCann is always a viable option when playing in Yankee Stadium. A combination of the short porch and Scott Carroll’s subpar pitching makes McCann far and away my top Catcher of the early slate.

 

Also Consider: Alejandro De Aza (OF) – CWS – EARLY, Jarrod Saltalamacchia (C) – MIA, Elvis Andrus (SS) – TEX, Mike Moustakas (3B) – KC, Mark Teixeira (1B) – NYY - EARLY

 

STARTING PITCHER


Zack Greinke (LAD): Greinke needed extended rest to relieve elbow soreness, but he should be primed and ready to deal against the Mets tonight. He checks in tied as the second largest favorite of the day, and this Mets offense ranks 29th in wOBA (23rd in past two weeks) while sitting at 7th in strikeout rate.

 

Jordan Zimmermann (WAS) – EARLY: It’s between Zimmermann and Kuroda for the early slate, and I’m leaning towards Zim as the heaviest favorite of the day at home vs San Francisco. A graphical depiction of his game logs would make for a thrilling roller-coaster ride, but I have a feeling we’ll see Zim towards the peak today. Pitching at home with expected run support against a Giants team that ranks 10th in strikeouts makes him the safest early slate pitcher.

 

Danny Salazar (CLE): If you want to take a walk on the wild side, let me introduce you to Mr. Salazar. His expected range of outcomes is by far the largest of any hurler, as a line of 7IP, 0 ER, 8 K’s seems equally reasonable as 5 IP, 5 ER, 4 K’s. The fact that he’s favored, at home, against a Houston team that ranks 3rd in strikeouts is encouraging. Still, his control has been a major factor all season, so I would reserve Salazar to tournament lineups only.

 

Also Consider: Hiroki Kuroda (NYY) – EARLY, Ervin Santana (ATL), Wily Peralta (MIL)

Spencer Limbach
Spencer Limbach is a multi-sport daily fantasy specialist for Rotoworld. He can be found on twitter @Spencer_JL.