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Daily

Daily Forecast: Scrounging

by Brad Johnson
Updated On: October 4, 2018, 4:09 pm ET

Which do you want first, the good news or the bad news? The bad news is that there are only eight games today. The good news is they're clumped in the same contest. The weather reports read all-clear, so we should be safe to use any game.

 

The top stack of the day is hard to settle upon. Should we get cute and go after Michael Wacha at Miller Park? He's returning from the disabled list and didn't do much by way of rehab work. Do we look at Trevor Bauer against the Tigers or Kyle Gibson versus the Angels? Let's play it safe and take one of the three bottom feeders. Brandon Workman will make his 13th start of the season. He does not line up well with Yankee Stadium. His strikeout and walk rates are both slightly below average. He allows an above average rate of fly balls. In his 114 major league innings, his HR/FB ratio is at 12.2 percent. Put another way, five percent of his fly balls leave the yard. We can expect that rate to spike sharply with the short porch in play. Load up on Yankee lefties as a result.

 

 

Editor's Note: Rotoworld's partner FanDuel is hosting a one-day $35,000 Fantasy Baseball league for Thursday night's MLB games. It's $25 to join and first prize is $5,000. Starts at 7:05pm ET on Thursday. Here's the FanDuel link.

 

 

 

TOP SHELF


Victor Martinez - DET: Working against Bauer, Martinez will get the best of Progressive Field. Whereas righty home runs are penalized 22 percent in Cleveland, lefties bop an additional 10 percent out of the park. Bauer allows a lot of fly balls, which bodes well for Martinez.

 

Mike Trout - LAA: Kyle Gibson is a sinker ball pitcher. Mike Trout mashes pitches down in the zone. With Gibson likely to pepper the lower quadrants of the zone, Trout should be in a good position to put up some power numbers today. Here's the evidence courtesy of FanGraphs' Jeff Sullivan.  

 

Yoenis Cespedes - BOS: Right-handed home run power is boosted 12 percent at Yankee Stadium. Compared to the 28 percent benefit enjoyed by lefties, it's a pittance. Cespedes doesn't feature notable platoon splits, but a matchup with Chris Capuano should work out well for the slugger.

 

Also Consider: Jacoby Ellsbury - NYY, Jose Bautista - TOR, Miguel Cabrera - DET

 

 

 

BULK PURCHASE

 

Brian Dozier - MIN: The Minnesota leadoff man has gone slumpy in recent months. His matchup against Hector Santiago is solid. He should be able to tap into a little more power against the southpaw, much as he's done over his career. His current season platoon splits are minimal. Over his career, he's hit for considerably more power versus opposite-handed pitchers.

 

Jonathan Lucroy - MIL: Remember that possible play against Michael Wacha I mentioned. If you want to go there, keep in mind that Ryan Braun and Carlos Gomez appear doubtful. That makes Lucroy the focal point of the Brewers attack. It's been a fantastic season for the catcher. Even if the Brewers don't spank Wacha, they should get to the Cardinals pen fairly early.

 

Mookie Betts - BOS: Betts doesn't have the kind of power I like out of my bulk purchase guys. He does have four home runs in 111 plate appearances, but his minor league numbers suggest a lesser pace on the power numbers. He'll have the platoon advantage against Capuano, should bat second, and can do a little bit of everything at the plate. 

 

Also Consider: Brian McCann - NYY, Brett Gardner - NYY, Mike Napoli - BOS

 

 

 

BARGAIN BIN

 

Adam Lind - TOR: Lind should bat fourth or fifth for the Blue Jays today. A matchup with Jake Odorizzi is a serious negative, and playing at Tropicana Field doesn't help either. He's a much better hitter than his price tag, so he earns the recommendation. Rays manager Joe Madden will use a lefty reliever to counteract Lind late in the game.

 

Sean Rodriguez - TAM: The Rays have higher upside choices, but Rodriguez comes with a bargain price tag, shortstop eligibility, and solid platoon splits. This season, he's hitting .233/.308/.447 against southpaws. That line isn't much to look at, yet it's 15 percent above league average.

 

Yasmani Grandal - SDP: With such a thin slate today, it's necessary to stretch the bubble. Grandal has fantastic raw power. Once upon a time, he was supposed to hit for a decent average too. His current line of .210/.304/.365 is hideous. However, he'll face Randall Delgado at Petco Park. The Diamondbacks righty isn't stretched out for a full start, and he's struggled with walks in the bullpen. So long as the switch-hitting Grandal gets to take his hacks as a lefty, Petco will act as a blessing rather than a curse.

 

Also Consider: Wil Myers - TAM, Elvis Andrus - TEX, Kendrys Morales - SEA

 

 

 

STARTING PITCHER

 

Ian Kennedy - SDP: If Kennedy pitched for almost any other ball club, he would have garnered a lot of attention this season. He's struck out more than a batter per inning to go along with a solid walk rate. In some ways, this has been the best season of his career, but the lousy Padres roster has masked his excellence. He'll face a tepid Diamondbacks unit today. More importantly, the Padres will see Randall Delgado. They should be able to stake out an early lead. Nothing is guaranteed since San Diego does have the league's worst offense.

 

Jake Odorizzi - TAM: I entered the season really down on Odorizzi. With a pedestrian strikeout rate, there was no point to rostering Odorizzi in any fantasy format. He's won me over by recording well over a strikeout per inning with the help of a nice split-change. The fly in the ointment is a very high fly ball rate. If he's pitching at home, like today, that's not much of a problem. He'll face the Blue Jays, so the matchup isn't favorable.

 

Hector Santiago - LAA: Shockingly, Hector Santiago's ERA is down to 3.28. I still wouldn't recommend using him on a normal day. He's pitched pretty well over the last month, but this is a pitcher who allows a few too many walks and home runs for comfort. His ground ball rate is just 28 percent. Only Chris Young has recorded fewer grounders. With Target Field and the Twins lineup in play today, Santiago looks viable.


Also Consider - Wily Peralta - MIL, Mark Buehrle - TOR, Roenis Elias - TEX

Brad Johnson
You can read more from Brad Johnson on Rotoworld, FanGraphs, and RotoBaller. Find him on Patreon and Twitter @BaseballATeam.