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Daily

Daily Forecast: Where To Hit

by Brad Johnson
Updated On: October 4, 2018, 4:09 pm ET

Welcome back to All Play Tuesday. You have 15 games to use for your DFS roster. Storms could interfere with games in New York and Baltimore. You'll want to keep a close eye on the reports. Only five of the top 15 stadiums for offense are in play today.

 

We've spent a lot of time in Texas for our top stacks. Today is no different, although we're targeting the Astros at Minute Maid Park tonight. Brad Peacock will face a difficult Angels lineup. He has the raw components of a useful major league pitcher, but a few traits don't work well together. His walk rate is high at 4.81 BB/9. He also allows a lot of fly balls and an above average HR/FB ratio. Add those all together and you get base runners and way too many home runs. As we know by now, the Angels can really pile on offensively, so it doesn't look good for Peacock.

 

TOP SHELF


Buster Posey - SFG: Elite production from a catcher is always a nice "catch" in daily play. Posey will face right-hander Jordan Lyles at Coors Field. Posey is having a typically strong season at the plate, and he's been running hot lately. It's a good situation, even without the platoon advantage.

 

Jose Abreu - CWS: Speaking of platoon advantages, Abreu has the edge over Tommy Milone. Abreu's first major league season has been a revelation for an otherwise lost White Sox squad. He doesn't show a large platoon split - just a few extra walks against lefties. Target Field is a pitcher's park, but the left field fence is neutral. In other words, Abreu has a typical chance for a home run against the fly ball oriented Milone.

 

Corey Dickerson - COL: Also playing at Coors Field are Dickerson and the Rockies (surprise!). The breakout basher matches up well with fly ball pitcher Yusmeiro Petit. While Petit is pretty solid at normal altitudes, I worry he'll be missing some of his stuff up in Denver. It happens to a lot of pitchers. Petit is the kind of guy who will get smacked around if his location is not crisp.

 

Also Consider: Justin Upton - ATL, Freddie Freeman - ATL, Jose Bautista - TOR

 

BULK PURCHASE

 

Oswaldo Arcia - MIN: Arcia is matched up with Hector Noesi, which is the main reason he's listed here. Between his high strikeout rate and Target Field's big right field wall, Arcia is a pure high risk, high reward play. He reminds me a little of Pedro Alvarez - he's among the best bets to hit two home runs, but he could easily strike out four times instead.

 

Jhonny Peralta - STL: Peralta has always been slightly better against lefties than righties - particularly with his power. He'll face ground ball specialist Jeff Locke tonight. Locke has lost the sharpness that made him a nice option earlier this season. His walk rate has regressed from its elite level, and he's making a few more mistake pitches. Maybe Peralta capitalizes on a mistake.

 

Justin Morneau - COL: With a .335/.382/.523 line against righties, Morneau looks like a nice layup tonight. He'll have Coors Field on his side too. As I noted in the Dickerson comments, Petit is the kind of pitcher who could fall apart at Coors Field. Morneau's high average, decent power profile should play well.

 

Also Consider: Alex Gordon - KAN, Kole Calhoun - LAA, Josh Hamilton - LAA

 

BARGAIN BIN

 

Carlos Ruiz - PHI: Ruiz usually bats near the bottom of the Phillies lineup, but sometimes he's moved up the order against a lefty. Mike Minor has pitched pretty well in his three most recent starts. However, he showed a brief stretch like this earlier in the season before devolving into a mess. As such, the platoon matchup could serve Ruiz well here, or this might be a waste of a lineup spot. 

 

Dayan Viciedo - CWS: Throughout his short major league career, Viciedo has hit particularly well against left-handed pitchers. This season, his platoon split is completely absent, which is a shame for fantasy owners. Career splits are usually more meaningful than season splits, so a start against Milone could still be valuable. Target Field doesn't kill right-handed power the way it does for lefties, so Viciedo could still bop a homer.

 

Robbie Grossman - HOU: The Astros leadoff hitter has a high strikeout rate, but he doesn't actually swing through all that many pitches. Instead, it appears his strikeout rate is tied to his high walk rate. He works counts well, which makes him useful in the real world. DFS owners might target Grossman for his plate appearances and matchup with C.J. Wilson.

 

Also Consider: Evan Gattis - ATL, Nate Freiman - OAK, Jonny Gomes - OAK

 

STARTING PITCHER

 

Sonny Gray - OAK: I can never figure out how to fit Clayton Kershaw into a reasonably decent lineup, so I assume you have the same problem. If you want a cheaper ace, Gray is paired against the Mariners. He's a rather ordinary pitcher with league average peripherals and a projected ERA around 3.50. Stadium and matchup should help him to perform at his best.

 

Wade Miley: ARI: Miley is the kind of pitcher who makes my job interesting. Sometimes I use him and sometimes I target against him. Today is a "use him" kind of day, with the Padres sending flaky starter Odrisamer Despaigne to the mound. Petco Park is very stingy to right-handed hitters, which nullifies the platoon advantage against the left-handed Miley. He strikes out more batters than Gray and can usually pitch deep into the game.

 

Derek Holland: TEX: Holland makes his 2014 debut tonight against the Royals. There are a lot of reasons to take a pass on tonight's outing, but I felt he warranted a write up. We're unlikely to see him pitch well beyond five innings, which hurts his DFS upside. He struck out 27 batters in 20.1 minor league rehab innings, but he also allowed five home runs and eight walks. I usually avoid or even target a debut outing simply because nerves can interfere with performance. James Paxton (listed below) is a safer bargain bin choice. 

 

Also Consider - Clayton Kershaw - LAD, Jon Niese - NYM, James Paxton - SEA

Brad Johnson
You can read more from Brad Johnson on Rotoworld, FanGraphs, and RotoBaller. Find him on Patreon and Twitter @BaseballATeam.