Colonial Country Club gets a new sponsor this year but it's still the same course we know and love.
It's been hosting this event since 1946 so there is plenty of history to lean on if you like that sort of thing.
The field is limited to just 122 golfers so DFSers should see a higher percentage of lineups getting 6-of-6 through the cut this week.
We are in Texas so weather is always something to watch for. Let's have a look at the weather forecast then search for some value plays.
Thursday (R1): Partly sunny with a high of 89 degrees. Winds at 15 to 20 MPH with gusts as high as 30 MPH.
Friday (R2): Partly sunny with a high of 88 degrees. Winds at 15 MPH with gusts up to 20 MPH.
It's going to be hot and windy this week in Fort Worth.
There doesn't look to be a relief from the wind on Thursday, meaning both waves are currently forecasted to be hit with steady winds and gusts up to 30 MPH.
This is a situation to monitor over the next few days to see if the wind starts to favor one side of the draw.
The best part about season-long leagues is the draft. You don't get that same rush with normal DFS contests but there is hope still. DRAFT has come along to fill that void and I'm having a lot of fun playing in their weekly golf drafts.
The first place to start is to build your pre-draft rankings for the week. I will point out a few golfers I think are overvalued in the raw rankings and a few that are undervalued in the raw rankings.
Beau Hossler (61.99 Projected Pts): The Texas Longhorn product will figure things out eventually but right now he's a stay-away for me. Over the last 3 months he's lost 28.2 strokes tee-to-green which is second-worst in the field over that time frame. He's lost strokes with his irons in 11 of his last 12 starts. Until that changes, I will continue to let others hop for a hot putter.
Chez Reavie (61.40 Projected Pts): He's a straight shooter so you might expect Colonial Country Club to be perfect for him. That hasn't really been the case as he's finished outside the top 45 in 6 of his 8 starts at the course. He's lost strokes to the field in 13 of his last 22 rounds played at the track. I will ride the course history and fade him in this spot.
Joel Dahmen (57.09 Projected Pts): He finished T20 in his course debut last year with all rounds posted in the 60s. The precision specialist has been knocking on the door all season. It's been fast starts in particular, as he owns three first-round leads in his last six stroke-play events. Good form and a good course fit.
Sungjae Im (38.24 Projected Pts): He's missing some cuts lately but he's still gained strokes over the field in 64% of his rounds over the last 3 months. That still ranks top 30 in the field this week over that time frame. When profiling him after the dominant Web season, I stated that courses that don't demand distance would be the spot to invest. Colonial CC definitely checks that box this week.
Colonial Country Club is a course where you can let your foot off the gas in terms of driving the ball. You can make your way around this course with just 3 or 4 drivers in a round if you please.
Some golfers love this style of golf while others lose their edge in terms of pounding drivers.
Looking at sample-adjusted performance on less-than-driver courses since the start of 2014, the top 15 performers on a per-round basis looks like this:
Other than raw performance, we can also look at who shows the biggest improvement on LT Driver Courses (versus their baseline). Using that as the criteria, the following names pop:
Na and Grillo make perfect sense for this angle. They don't rely on distance. Niemann is one or the longer players off the tee so I'm thinking him showing up here is just a somewhat small sample swaying the numbers in favor of less-than-driver courses. Let's give him some more time on TOUR before we really say less-than-driver courses really suit him.
Brandt Snedeker: He's been somewhat quiet for most of the season but he did post a top 5 at THE PLAYERS and a top 20 last week at Bethpage. He's still finding fairways and greens at a high clip which is perfect for a classical track like Colonial. Sneds owns an 8-for-8 record at the course this week with notable finishes of T16, T2, and T17 in 2014, 2015, and 2016. His lack of season-long form might keep him under the radar but his winning pedigree provides the upside we love to see in the value range.
Best of luck in all your contests this week!