Many fantasy football gamers tried their hand at DFS contests last week but this week it's a new PGA TOUR season that kicks off in West Virginia.
There will be new faces arriving fresh from the Korn Ferry Tour but the biggest change for gamers comes in the new cut-line rules.
The PGA TOUR has altered the 36-hole cutline rule this season to be the Top 65 and ties after 36 holes, instead of the Top 70 and ties.
For DFS purposes, our goal is always to get 6-of-6 golfers through the cut line so this change makes that a much tougher task. For anyone that has played Euro Tour DFS regularly, you'll probably notice it's pretty common to find under 5% of lineups getting all 6 of their golfers through the cut.
I'm not suggesting you overhaul your entire gameplan this season but it's something to monitor this fall and switch up your personal strategy if needed. In my opinion the lower 6-of-6 percentage puts a bigger emphasis on finding the winner or a few top-5 finishers so I won't be afraid of taking a few extra longshots in my lineups if it means that I can fit in a few stars at the top. We'll see how that plays out.
Thursday (R1): Mostly sunny with a high of 87 degrees. A 30% chances of showers/storms in the PM. Calm Winds.
Friday (R2): Sunny with a high of 83 degrees. A 40% chance of showers/storms in the PM. Calm winds.
The threat of storms has dipped a touch since yesterday which is good news for the hopes of us avoiding any delays this week. Still, there is a 30% chance or higher each day that storms arrive in the afternoon.
The best part about season-long leagues is the draft. You don't get that same rush with normal DFS contests but there is hope still. DRAFT has come along to fill that void and I'm having a lot of fun playing in their weekly golf drafts.
The first place to start is to build your pre-draft rankings for the week. I will point out a few golfers I think are overvalued in the raw rankings and a few that are undervalued in the raw rankings.
Kevin Chappell (66.29 Projected Pts): He checks in at 3rd in the pre-week draft board. That would be fair value for him during his peak form but we are getting him as he attempts to play his way back from injury. There is no guarantee that we ever see him in full form again. His rehab starts have gone for T62 and T51 down on the Korn Ferry Tour which is respectable but nothing to indicate he's ready to pop yet.
Keegan Bradley (65.82 Projected Pts): This wouldn't be a full fade for me but Bradley is a little too high on the draft board for my liking. He ended last season with five straight finishes outside the top 40 and now he heads to The Greenbrier Resort which he's stated in the past that he wants this week to be heavily focused on making memories with the family. I'm not suggesting he will be checked out and not trying on the golf course but his form combined with so-so history would lead me to waiting until the 10th pick or later to even think about him this week.
Sungjae Im (38.91 Projected Pts): It hasn't been announced yet but the (probable) 2019 Rookie of the Year is way underpriced here. He's finished top 30 in eight of his last 10 starts. He's been better than the field in Par 3 Performance over 200 yards which should come in handy this week on a course that features three par 3s over 205 yards.
Viktor Hovland (38.53 Projected Pts): The lovely people at DRAFT continue to ignore any short-term or even mid-term form. Hovland arrives as #2 on the betting boards and he's #1 on my rankings if you read the preview yesterday. Yet, he finds himself in the bottom half of the DRAFT board pre-rankings. Don't let him slip past pick #3 this week.
Grass type is always a key comfort factor so let's see who likes playing on bentgrass greens...
Looking at sample-size-adjusted performance on bentgrass greens over the last three 3 years (PGA, KFT, Euro Tour) the top 15 performers on a per-round basis looks like this:
Byeong Hun An
Other than raw performance, we can also look at who shows the biggest improvement on bentgrass (versus their baseline). Using that as the criteria, the following names pop:
Uihlein and Grace don't bring the best form to the table but Niemann certainly has my full attention this week. The young Chilean also finished T5 here last year.
Harry Higgs: The SMU product ended the Korn Ferry Tour season with finishes of T23 or better in six of his last seven starts including a win at the Price Cutter Charity Championship. This will be his PGA TOUR debut but if you're looking to ride the hot hand then Higgs provides a lot of value this week.
Best of luck in all your contests this week!