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DraftKings Strategy

DraftKings Prep: Alfred Dunhill Championship

by Josh Culp
Updated On: November 27, 2020, 7:04 pm ET

The European Tour is staying in South Africa this week for the Alfred Dunhill Championship. 

The course is Leopard Creek Country Club and it's hosted here since 2004. Lots of course history to rely on, if that's your preferred style of research. 

With no PGA TOUR action, DraftKings has boosted the prize pools for the event this week, compared to the week-to-week sizing of Euro Tour events. 

So, let's head over to DraftKings and break down the slate a bit. 

Making the Cut

The first goal of DFS golf is to get all six golfers through the cut line. It sounds easy at first but the odds quickly fall against you when you run the numbers. If you consider the best golfers in the world might have a long-term 80% cuts-made rate, at best, then getting 6-of-6 would be around a 1-in-4 chance (if you could stack six of that elite golfer into the same lineup). 

In reality, we know that most golfers will not get near that 80% clip and you also have a salary cap to worry about. That puts the chances of getting 6-of-6 through the cutline around 5 to 10 percent, most weeks. 

With a full field of 156 golfers lined up this week, the task will be pretty tough. 

How can we search for cut-makers? Trying to find steady golfers, let's look at the percentage of rounds that a golfer has gained strokes over the field over the last year. Looking at the top 10 and ties from that list, here they are: 

Garrick Higgo
Gavin Green
Johannes Veerman
Matthew Jordan
Laurie Canter
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
George Coetzee
Adrian Otaegui
Marcus Armitage
Adrien Saddier
Louis De Jager
Darren Fichardt
Jaco Ahlers


Finding a Favorite

It's great to look at steady play but to win a big GPP you are going to need some upside. 

A quick way to do this is to glance at the odds board. Looking at Pointsbet Sportbook, we see the the following names as the favorites: 

+1200 Brandon Stone 

+1400 Christiaan Bezuidenhout 

+1500 Robert MacIntyre

+2000 Wilco Nienaber

+2500 Shaun Norris; Eddie Pepperell

+2800 George Coetzee

+3000 Matthias Schwab

+3300 Joost Luiten, Joachim B. Hansen, Laurie Canter, Marcus Armitage, Johannes Veerman, Garrick Higgo, Matthew Jordan

This is the top 10 (and ties) when it comes to betting favorites this week. It would be tough to imagine a winning lineup without at least one of these names in it but in reality you should probably squeeze two or three of these names onto your squad, if you can. 


Course Horses

As I mentioned at the top, this event has been hosted at Leopard Creek since 2004 so there are lots of past results to lean on this week. What names stand out in that regard? 

Zander Lombard has finished 3rd and 7th in his last two trips. 

David Drysdale has finished top 20 in six of his last nine starts at Leopard Creek. 

Scott Jamieson has provided a boom-or-bust history at Leopard Creek with top 5s in three of his last six but finished outside of the top 40 in four of his last seven. 

Jbe' Kruger has top 35s in five of his last seven starts, when playing right next to Kruger National Park. Coincidence? 

Richard Sterne has also made this happy hunting ground with top 35s in seven of his last eight visits. 


Lineup Construction

When we combine the top two lists from above then we see that five of the top six favorites on the betting board are not on the top 10 steady list. You are trading safety for implied upside when plucking from the top of the betting board this week. 

Using the three categories above, we should be able to mix and match to create some solid lineups this week. 

I do say mix and match because it's important to cross-check your methods of research. If you rely solely on course history, as an example, then you may end up overlooking the fact that one of those course horses might be arriving in the worst form of his list. Just like nutritional advice, a balanced approach is usually best. Don't overindulge in course history but also don't ignore it. Everything in moderation.

Good luck this week. 

Josh Culp
Josh Culp joined Rotoworld in 2014. The DFS enthusiast from Iowa State can be found on Twitter @futureoffantasy.