The quarterbacks are listed in alphabetical order by first name. You’ll see where each of these prospects rank historically by looking at the percentiles in the prospect profile, which includes these categories:
Proj. FPPG: The percentile rank of my model projecting fantasy points for NFL seasons 1-4.
Yardage Score: The percentile rank of my model projecting NFL passing yards per game.
Touchdown Score: The percentile rank of my model projecting NFL passing TDs per game.
Passing EPA: The percentile rank of Passing EPA, an efficiency measure using play-by-play data.
Total QB Rating: The percentile rank of Total QB Rating, which includes passing, rushing, and sack data while adjusting for strength of schedule.
Rushing Score: The percentile rank of my model that is projecting NFL rushing yards per game.
Brett Rypien’s above average numbers become average when adjusted for strength of schedule. Rypien didn’t attack downfield (13th in % of 20+ yard passes), but he made the easy throws and avoided interceptions (5th in INT%). He’s a quality backup. Draft Over/Under: 125
Clayton Thorson showed promise early in his career -- that earned him an invite to the Combine -- but he has the profile of a third-string quarterback. Draft Over/Under: 250
The models would be lower on Daniel Jones if he wasn’t expected to be drafted Day 1 or Day 2. All of his “production” came on easy throws (21-of-22 TDs were in the pocket w/o pressure) and he struggled on NFL throws (last in passer rating vs. pressure and 12-of-44 on passes with 20+ air yards). Draft Over/Under: 35.5
Drew Lock’s size and rocket arm will get him overdrafted, but his accuracy and efficiency against quality teams (12th in YPA vs. Power 5) have me concerned. Projected as an NFL bust, the only excuse for spending a top-20 pick on Lock is positional value, but that's actually a good argument. Draft Over/Under: 10.5
Dwayne Haskins is coming off one of the best passing seasons in recent college football history when adjusted for strength of schedule. He showed accuracy, took care of the ball (4th in INT%), and is considered as one of the most intelligent QB prospects. Haskins is deserving of a top-3 pick for a QB-needy team. Draft Over/Under: 4.5