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Miles Sanders
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Evaluations

2019 Running Back Profiles

by Hayden Winks
Updated On: March 25, 2019, 4:27 pm ET

Career stats: 632 - 3,539 - 30 and 49 - 304 - 1

Marginal Efficiency: 48.4% (15th)

Hlt Yards Per Opportunity: 6.6 (7th)

Negative Rushing Yards %: 9% (11th)

8+ Rushing Yards %: 23% (11th)

20+ Rushing Yards %: 4% (13th)

Non-Red Zone TD%: 7.1% (2nd)

Red Zone TD%: 0.0% (26th)

YPC vs. Teammates: +1.5 (9th)

TD% vs. Teammates: +0.0% (17th)

Speed Score: 106 (3rd)

250 Characters or Less: After producing as an 18- and 19-year old, Hill didn’t have a great 2018 (injury), but he made up for it with a 4.40-second forty. His speed offers some big-play potential, and he’s one season removed from 31 receptions. Hill is a fun committee back. Draft Over/Under: 125

 

 

Career stats: 471 - 2,616 - 27 and 16 - 177 - 0

Marginal Efficiency: 44.2% (23rd)

Hlt Yards Per Opportunity: 6.0 (8th)

Negative Rushing Yards %: 10% (19th)

8+ Rushing Yards %: 22% (18th)

20+ Rushing Yards %: 6% (6th)

Non-Red Zone TD%: 1.1% (17th)

Red Zone TD%: 17% (15th)

YPC vs. Teammates: +0.8 (16th)

TD% vs. Teammates: -0.5% (19th)

Speed Score: 101 (9th)

250 Characters or Less: Higdon got a late start, but he finished with good (not great) rushing numbers as a senior. However, the advanced metrics are poor and he didn’t produce as a receiver in any of his four years. Higdon profiles as a committee runner with decent speed. Draft Over/Under: 175

 

 

Career stats: 610 - 2,855 - 25 and 43 - 403 - 2

Negative Rushing Yards %: In 2017, 9% (11th)

8+ Rushing Yards %: In 2017, 21% (23rd)

20+ Rushing Yards %: In 2017, 3% (25th)

Non-Red Zone TD%: In 2017, 1.1 (17th)

Red Zone TD%: In 2017, 32% (2nd)

Speed Score: TBD

250 Characters or Less: Scott was limited to 79 carries in 2018 and he never had 1,000 rushing yards. However, Scott was great in the red zone and caught 20 passes in 2018, giving him a chance to land on a 53-man roster. Draft Over/Under: 200

 

Career stats: 455 - 2,676 - 24 and 54 - 297 - 1

Marginal Efficiency: 51.2% (7th)

Hlt Yards Per Opportunity: 5.2 (16th)

Negative Rushing Yards %: 6% (1st)

8+ Rushing Yards %: 22% (18th)

20+ Rushing Yards %: 4% (13th)

Non-Red Zone TD%: 0.7% (25th)

Red Zone TD%: 11% (23rd)

YPC vs. Teammates: +1.7 (7th)

TD% vs. Teammates: -1.8% (23rd)

Speed Score: 106 (2nd)

250 Characters or Less: Weber ran a speedy 4.47-second forty, but he didn’t show big-play ability in 2018. Instead, Weber avoided negative yards (1st) and chugged along to the seventh-best Marginal Efficiency. Weber may have more of a receiving ceiling than indicated above. Draft Over/Under: 200
 

 

Career stats: 276 - 1,649 - 12 and 32 - 193 - 1

Marginal Efficiency: 53.6% (3rd)

Hlt Yards Per Opportunity: 5.4 (12th)

Negative Rushing Yards %: 7% (4th)

8+ Rushing Yards %: 24% (9th)

20+ Rushing Yards %: 4% (13th)

Non-Red Zone TD%: 1.1% (17th)

Red Zone TD%: 16% (17th)

YPC vs. Teammates: +1.2 (11th)

TD% vs. Teammates: -4.2% (25th)

Speed Score: 104 (5th)

250 Characters or Less: If not for Saquon Barkley, Sanders would have produced sooner, but he filled in nicely, earning above average advanced analytics grades (3rd in Marginal Efficiency), except for a few touchdown metrics. His 4.49-second forty secured a Day 2 pick. Draft Over/Under: 70

 

 

Career stats: 945 - 5,323 - 57 and 65 - 465 - 5

Marginal Efficiency: 49.0% (13th)

Hlt Yards Per Opportunity: 4.6 (20th)

Negative Rushing Yards %: 10% (19th)

8+ Rushing Yards %: 21% (23rd)

20+ Rushing Yards %: 5% (10th)

Non-Red Zone TD%: 1.1% (17th)

Red Zone TD%: 14% (21st)

YPC vs. Teammates: +1.0 (15th)

TD% vs. Teammates: +0.3% (15th)

Speed Score: 93 (17th)

250 Characters or Less: Four-straight seasons with 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns is a ton of production, but it’s tough to move past his small frame and poor advanced metrics. Gaskin needed to run faster than 4.58 at the NFL Scouting Combine. His path is as a pass-catcher. Draft Over/Under: 200
 

 

Career stats: 529 - 2,859 - 29 and 50 - 375 - 3

Marginal Efficiency: 45.4% (20th)

Hlt Yards Per Opportunity: 7.9 (3rd)

Negative Rushing Yards %: 7% (4th)

8+ Rushing Yards %: 23% (11th)

20+ Rushing Yards %: 5% (10th)

Non-Red Zone TD%: 2.5% (5th)

Red Zone TD%: 21% (12th)

YPC vs. Teammates: +1.1 (14th)

TD% vs. Teammates: +0.8% (13th)

Speed Score: 104 (6th)

250 Characters or Less: There isn’t an obvious thing that Ollison is great at, but he’s by no means the worst running back who was invited to the NFL Combine. He was an average runner and a tad below average as a receiver. Running 4.58-second forty at 228 was solid, however. Draft Over/Under: 200

 

 

Career stats: 200 - 1,285 - 13 and 17 - 281 - 5

Negative Rushing Yards %: In 2017, 6% (1st)

8+ Rushing Yards %: In 2017, 30% (2nd)

20+ Rushing Yards %: In 2017, 8% (2nd)

Non-Red Zone TD%: In 2017, 2% (8th)

Red Zone TD%: In 2017, 28% (4th)

Speed Score: TBD

250 Characters or Less: If Anderson was healthy, he’d be in consideration as RB1, but he’s rehabbing a torn ACL and only has one season with production. The floor is zero games played, but Anderson could be a bell-cow if *everything* went his way. Worthy of a Day 3 flier. Draft Over/Under: 150
 

 

Career stats:  334 - 1,995 - 12 and 37 - 405 - 1

Marginal Efficiency: 46.3% (19th)

Hlt Yards Per Opportunity: 7.2 (5th)

Negative Rushing Yards %: 7% (4th)

8+ Rushing Yards %: 20% (27th)

20+ Rushing Yards %: 4% (13th)

Non-Red Zone TD%: 1.4% (15th)

Red Zone TD%: 8% (25th)

YPC vs. Teammates: +1.2 (11th)

TD% vs. Teammates: -4.1% (24th)

Speed Score: 100 (11th)

250 Characters or Less: Only 20 years old, Homer checks the box as a young producer, but he profiles best as a pass-catcher, despite the second-most yards after contact per carry. The rest of his rushing metrics are below average, especially as a touchdown scorer. Draft Over/Under: 200
 

 

Career stats: 600 - 3,615 - 34 and 66 - 561 - 1

Marginal Efficiency: 52.4% (6th)

Hlt Yards Per Opportunity: 6.8 (6th)

Negative Rushing Yards %: 9% (11th)

8+ Rushing Yards %: 25% (6th)

20+ Rushing Yards %: 6% (6th)

Non-Red Zone TD%: 2% (8th)

Red Zone TD%: 19% (14th)

YPC vs. Teammates: +2.4 (3rd)

TD% vs. Teammates: +2.6% (7th)

Speed Score: 100 (12th)

250 Characters or Less: Williams was very efficient and, at times, showed big-play ability despite average long speed. Where Williams is at his best is on passing-downs where he wins as a receiver and as a great pass blocker. There’s three-down upside and a nice floor. Draft Over/Under: 60

 

Bonus Material:

SPARQ is pretty cool. It gives an overall evaluation of a prospect’s athleticism, but I have one problem with it. The formula doesn’t change for each position, and we all know that each position requires different athletic traits. So I tested SPARQ -- well actually Josh Hermsmeyer’s Spork metric -- on a sample of running backs to see if there is any correlation to NFL success. The results of my sample (n=120) are not great. The r-squared between SPARQ and PPR Fantasy Points Per Game during NFL seasons one through four is 0.025, meaning only 2.5% of the variation in fantasy points can be explained by SPARQ. When completely isolated, SPARQ doesn't tell us anything about how successful a running back will be. We can get a better representation of what athletic traits actually matter for running backs by plugging the same variables used in the SPARQ formula into a regression for fantasy points. Here are the results of RB SPARQ:

The r-squared of RB SPARQ is 0.165, which is a big improvement over SPARQ and a moderate improvement over Speed Score, which had an r-squared of 0.076. If you have your own database and want to run similar regressions, I’m confident you’d get similar results. If you just want to use these coefficients for your spreadsheets, be my guest: RB SPARQ = 73.9781+(Height*0.188217)+(Weight*0.049905)+(Forty*-16.7676) +(TenYardSplit*5.88148)+(Bench*-0.0823335)+(Vertical*-0.244215)+(Broad*0.0770381)+(ShortShuttle*2.13866)+(ThreeCone*-4.50764)