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Kyler Murray
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NFL Draft Analytics Top 300

by Hayden Winks
Updated On: July 28, 2019, 12:16 pm ET

Updated on 4/23/2019.

The goal of this is to predict NFL success as accurately as possible solely using analytics. Specifically, I’m predicting Pro Football Reference’s Approximate Value Per Game (AV/G) statistic using models that have college production, athletic testing, and consensus big board data.

After analyzing AV/G, I found that the statistic isn’t representative of positional spending and consensus positional value, so I’ve made slight adjustments in an attempt to have my top 300 big board reflect positional value, something that seems to be underrated during the draft. Adjusting for positional value will certainly make some people #MadOnline because the quarterbacks will be ranked higher than you are used to and the running backs and safeties will be ranked lower than you are used to. If you have a problem with that, ignore the overall ranking and focus on where they are ranked within their position.

Another thing that needs to be made abundantly clear is that these rankings include each prospect’s projected draft pick. There is a huge difference between ranking prospects with their draft capital in mind (that’s what I’m doing in the NFL Draft Analytics Top 300) and ranking prospects as if they were all drafted with the same overall pick. For example, projected top-15 pick Daniel Jones and projected Day 2 pick Will Grier basically have the same projection, but if Grier and Jones were both projected to be the 10th overall pick, Grier would be ranked much, much higher than Jones.

Lastly, one improvement I’ve had in modeling for the NFL Draft is to separate positions into different archetypes. Like Josh Norris has noted on the Rotoworld Football Podcast -- subscribe and leave a review -- the weight difference between receivers Marquise Brown and D.K. Metcalf is 62 pounds, so it’d be silly to use the same model for each receiver. For that reason, I’ve split running backs, wide receivers, defensive tackles, and edge rushers into groups using weight or height as the separator. Doing so helped increase the out of sample r-squares for each model.

 

NFL Draft Analytics Top 300

Just wanted to remind you that the models include projected draft capital and are adjusted for positional value. That's why Daniel Jones is ranked highly when he's absolutely not an analytics quarterback.

 

Prospect Position Percentile Analytics Rank Position Rank Proj. Pick
Kyler Murray 1.00 1 QB1 1
Dwayne Haskins 0.91 2 QB2 11
Ed Oliver 0.99 3 DT1 5
Montez Sweat 0.96 4 EDGE1 16
Drew Lock 0.80 5 QB3 15
Brian Burns 0.95 6 EDGE2 15
Josh Allen 0.93 7 EDGE3 6
Will Grier 0.74 8 QB4 60
Rashan Gary 0.93 9 EDGE4 16
Quinnen Williams 0.97 10 DT2 4
Noah Fant 1.00 11 TE1 25
Jonah Williams 0.97 12 OT1 13
Nick Bosa 0.91 13 EDGE5 2
Daniel Jones 0.61 14 QB5 12
Ryan Finley 0.61 15 QB6 65
Devin White 0.99 16 LB1 5
Khalen Saunders 0.89 17 DT3 95
Andre Dillard 0.92 18 OT2 15
Dexter Lawrence 0.88 19 DT4 26
Devin Bush 0.98 20 LB2 12
Jeffery Simmons 0.95 21 DT5 25
Deandre Baker 0.97 22 CB1 32
Cody Ford 0.89 23 OT3 23
Jawaan Taylor 0.88 24 OT4 9
Joejuan Williams 0.96 25 CB2 70
Julian Love 0.96 26 CB3 61
Christian Wilkins 0.83 27 DT6 14
Kaleb McGary 0.86 28 OT5 40
Renell Wren 0.75 29 DT7 80
Garrett Bradbury 0.99 30 IOL1 19
T.J. Hockenson 0.93 31 TE2 11
Clelin Ferrell 0.69 32 EDGE6 18
Chase Winovich 0.67 33 EDGE7 55
Greedy Williams 0.93 34 CB4 22
Chris Lindstrom 0.99 35 IOL2 27
Zach Allen 0.65 36 EDGE8 70
Ben Banogu 0.63 37 EDGE9 104
N'Keal Harry 0.84 38 WR1 34
Hakeem Butler 0.83 39 WR2 35
Trayvon Mullen 0.88 40 CB5 65
Tytus Howard 0.74 41 OT6 76
Andy Isabella 0.88 42 WR3 145
Blake Cashman 0.87 43 LB3 95
Byron Murphy 0.86 44 CB6 28
Isaiah Johnson 0.86 45 CB7 67
Irv Smith Jr. 0.87 46 TE3 53
Dalton Risner 0.72 47 OT7 40
Erik McCoy 0.93 48 IOL3 35
Chauncey Gardner-Johnson 0.91 49 S1 39
A.J. Brown 0.84 50 WR4 34
Lonnie Johnson 0.84 51 CB8 38
Greg Little 0.70 52 OT8 43
Amani Hooker 0.87 53 S2 68
Darnell Savage 0.89 54 S4 35
Justin Hollins 0.59 55 EDGE10 152
D.K. Metcalf 0.72 56 WR5 24
Jamel Dean 0.80 57 CB9 86
Johnathan Abram 0.86 58 S3 35
Marquise Brown 0.83 59 WR6 25
L.J. Collier 0.56 60 EDGE11 49
Maxx Crosby 0.56 61 EDGE12 92
Jace Sternberger 0.85 62 TE4 66
Rock Ya-Sin 0.78 63 CB10 32
Amani Oruwariye 0.78 64 CB11 75
Justin Layne 0.77 65 CB12 45
Parris Campbell 0.77 66 WR7 38
Jachai Polite 0.54 67 EDGE13 59
Ben Burr-Kirven 0.77 68 LB4 172
Germaine Pratt 0.79 69 LB5 85
Max Scharping 0.64 70 OT9 90
Tyree Jackson 0.35 71 QB8 104
Yodny Cajuste 0.62 72 OT10 87
Connor McGovern 0.84 73 IOL4 90
Charles Omenihu 0.51 74 EDGE14 95
Emanuel Hall 0.64 75 WR8 103
Drue Tranquill 0.74 76 LB6 112
Elgton Jenkins 0.82 77 IOL5 44
JJ Arcega-Whiteside 0.63 78 WR9 72
Mack Wilson 0.71 79 LB7 45
Jahlani Tavai 0.72 80 LB8 80
Josh Jacobs 0.88 81 RB1 27
Dillon Mitchell 0.73 82 WR10 160
Bobby Okereke 0.69 83 LB9 129
Deionte Thompson 0.73 84 S6 56
David Long 0.63 85 CB13 87
Jerry Tillery 0.61 86 DT8 28
Kelvin Harmon 0.54 87 WR11 69
Dawson Knox 0.75 88 TE5 75
Nasir Adderley 0.71 89 S5 35
Juan Thornhill 0.71 90 S8 45
Saivion Smith 0.57 91 CB14 173
Anthony Nelson 0.42 92 EDGE15 89
John Cominsky 0.41 93 EDGE16 140
Dru Samia 0.56 94 OT11 98
David Long Jr. 0.63 95 LB10 143
Taylor Rapp 0.67 96 S7 49
Miles Boykin 0.50 97 WR12 60
Kris Boyd 0.54 98 CB15 140
Sean Bunting 0.54 99 CB16 53
Stanley Morgan 0.61 100 WR13 248
Derick Roberson 0.43 101 EDGE17 237
Clayton Thorson 0.28 102 QB7 148
Jarrett Stidham 0.27 103 QB9 126
Dennis Daley 0.52 105 OT12 119
Mike Edwards 0.61 106 S9 130
Kaden Smith 0.72 107 TE6 139
Deebo Samuel 0.58 108 WR14 56
Jaylon Ferguson 0.43 109 EDGE18 64
Ross Pierschbacher 0.49 110 OT13 144
Bobby Evans 0.48 111 OT14 109
Mitch Hyatt 0.47 112 OT15 200
Damien Harris 0.74 113 RB2 85
Michael Jackson 0.41 114 CB17 170
Darrell Henderson 0.82 115 RB3 66
Vosean Joseph 0.52 116 LB11 111
Oshane Ximines 0.37 117 EDGE19 108
Ashton Dulin 0.54 118 WR16 254
KeeSean Johnson 0.51 119 WR15 200
Kendall Sheffield 0.39 120 CB18 132
David Edwards 0.44 121 OT20 135
Malik Carney 0.35 122 EDGE20 181
D'Andre Walker 0.34 123 EDGE21 85
Gerald Willis 0.46 124 DT9 109
Dre'Mont Jones 0.43 125 DT10 59
Mecole Hardman 0.47 126 WR17 101
Michael Deiter 0.61 127 IOL6 82
Nate Davis 0.59 128 IOL7 96
Will Harris 0.41 129 S10 160
Montre Hartage 0.31 130 CB19 216
Mark Fields 0.31 131 CB20 162
Miles Sanders 0.71 132 RB4 50
Chuma Edoga 0.39 133 OT16 145
Darius Slayton 0.40 134 WR18 152
Trysten Hill 0.39 135 DT11 60
Marvell Tell 0.38 136 S11 171
Davante Davis 0.28 137 CB21 UDFA
Jamal Peters 0.27 138 CB22 UDFA
Derrick Baity 0.26 139 CB23 UDFA
Ugo Amadi 0.33 140 S12 163
Daylon Mack 0.27 141 DT12 165
Daniel Wise 0.32 142 DT13 128
David Montgomery 0.59 143 RB5 82
Christian Miller 0.28 144 EDGE22 99
Kahale Warring 0.51 145 TE7 101
Oli Udoh 0.36 146 OT17 193
Cameron Smith 0.38 147 LB12 190
Tim Harris 0.21 148 CB24 UDFA
Iman Marshall 0.21 149 CB25 254
Jordan Brown 0.18 150 CB26 173
Khari Willis 0.28 151 S13 203
Sheldrick Redwine 0.29 152 S14 200
Ryan Bates 0.46 153 IOL8 209
Foster Moreau 0.47 154 TE8 149
Josh Oliver 0.42 155 TE9 108
Caleb Wilson 0.41 156 TE10 215
Justice Hill 0.55 157 RB6 90
Marquise Blair 0.26 158 S15 164
Zedrick Woods 0.24 159 S16 251
Tyler Jones 0.29 160 OT18 190
Tyler Roemer 0.28 161 OT19 186
Trey Pipkins 0.26 162 OT21 200
Corey Ballentine 0.18 163 CB27 143
Jalen Hurd 0.36 164 WR19 140
Gary Jennings 0.26 165 WR20 168
Rodney Anderson 0.48 166 RB7 143
Austin Bryant 0.17 167 EDGE23 130
Benny Snell 0.43 168 RB8 190
Gardner Minshew 0.19 169 QB10 235
Keelan Doss 0.33 170 WR21 200
Blessuan Austin 0.15 171 CB28 UDFA
Derrek Thomas 0.14 172 CB29 186
Kingsley Keke 0.23 173 DT14 150
Brett Rypien 0.18 174 QB11 207
Olamide Zaccheaus 0.33 175 WR22 UDFA
Travis Fulgham 0.30 176 WR23 183
David Sills 0.28 177 WR24 170
Alijah Holder 0.11 178 CB30 UDFA
Gary Johnson 0.29 179 LB13 254
Sione Takitaki 0.29 180 LB14 220
Darius West 0.20 181 S17 247
Saquan Hampton 0.16 182 S18 238
Anthony Johnson 0.26 183 WR25 173
Deion Calhoun 0.35 184 IOL9 221
Hjalte Froholdt 0.34 185 IOL10 180
Cody Barton 0.26 186 LB15 232
Isaac Nauta 0.31 187 TE11 163
Lamont Gaillard 0.32 188 IOL11 156
Malik Gant 0.13 189 S19 187
Isaiah Buggs 0.20 190 DT15 150
Jordan Miller 0.08 191 CB31 218
Darwin Thompson 0.38 192 RB9 199
James Williams 0.36 193 RB10 250
DaMarkus Lodge 0.22 194 WR26 175
T.J. Edwards 0.24 195 LB16 231
Michael Dogbe 0.19 196 DT16 207
Alex Barnes 0.26 197 RB11 254
Ben Powers 0.28 198 IOL12 166
Joe Jackson 0.04 199 EDGE24 150
Rashad Fenton 0.06 200 CB32 UDFA
Isaiah Prince 0.16 201 OT22 231
Joshua Miles 0.15 202 OT23 214
Antoine Wesley 0.19 203 WR27 208
Dexter Williams 0.34 204 RB12 161
Devin Singletary 0.33 205 RB13 95
Emeke Egbule 0.22 206 LB17 185
Kaden Elliss 0.21 207 LB18 230
Armon Watts 0.15 208 DT17 192
Byron Cowart 0.13 209 DT18 227
Blace Brown 0.05 210 CB33 UDFA
Kendarius Webster 0.04 211 CB34 UDFA
Sutton Smith 0.21 212 EDGE25 224
Shareef Miller 0.21 213 EDGE26 215
Jordan Brailford 0.20 214 EDGE27 246
Jalen Jelks 0.19 215 EDGE28 148
Evan Worthington 0.09 216 S20 185
Trayveon Williams 0.29 217 RB14 135
Devine Ozigbo 0.23 218 RB15 215
Phil Haynes 0.20 219 IOL13 203
Beau Benzschawel 0.19 220 IOL14 175
Cortez Broughton 0.11 221 DT19 206
Bryce Love 0.26 222 RB16 230
Ryquell Armstead 0.21 223 RB17 185
Alexander Mattison 0.19 224 RB18 229
Terrill Hanks 0.18 225 LB19 150
Xavier Crawford 0.04 226 CB35 UDFA
Jamal Davis 0.13 227 EDGE29 UDFA
Carl Granderson 0.13 228 EDGE30 191
Ty Summers 0.17 229 LB20 236
Tre Watson 0.17 230 LB21 253
Jaquan Johnson 0.08 231 S21 178
Lukas Denis 0.07 232 S22 254
Yosh Nijman 0.11 233 OT24 UDFA
Greg Dortch 0.19 234 WR28 254
Trevon Wesco 0.18 235 TE12 195
Drew Sample 0.18 236 TE13 167
Jimmy Moreland 0.03 237 CB36 130
Mike Weber 0.20 238 RB19 220
Porter Gustin 0.12 239 EDGE31 UDFA
Ryan Connelly 0.16 240 LB22 253
Tyrel Dodson 0.16 241 LB23 UDFA
Mike Bell 0.06 242 S23 197
Dontavius Russell 0.05 243 DT20 191
Chris Slayton 0.08 244 DT21 254
Myles Gaskin 0.15 245 RB20 189
Qadree Ollison 0.11 246 RB21 250
Preston Williams 0.12 247 WR29 247
Andrew Wingard 0.06 248 S24 UDFA
Greg Gaines 0.03 249 DT22 250
Terry Godwin 0.14 250 WR30 250
Elijah Holyfield 0.10 251 RB22 254
Mark McLaurin 0.04 252 S25 UDFA
Kevin Givens 0.05 253 DT23 UDFA
Zach Gentry 0.15 254 TE14 254
Alizé Mack 0.14 255 TE15 254
Diontae Johnson 0.12 256 WR31 148
Terry McLaurin 0.06 257 WR32 70
Te'Von Coney 0.11 258 LB24 254
Terry Beckner 0.03 259 DT24 254
Jakobi Meyers 0.05 260 WR34 248
Riley Ridley 0.01 261 WR33 82
Dax Raymond 0.10 262 TE16 160
Karan Higdon 0.08 263 RB23 254
Deshaun Davis 0.09 264 LB25 254
Andrew Van Ginkel 0.08 265 LB26 UDFA
Dre Greenlaw 0.08 266 LB27 229
Donovan Wilson 0.03 267 S26 UDFA
Trevon Tate 0.08 268 IOL15 217
Paul Adams 0.05 269 OT25 UDFA
Derwin Gray 0.05 270 OT26 252
Joe Giles-Harris 0.06 272 LB28 234
Jonathan Ledbetter 0.03 273 EDGE32 217
Albert Huggins 0.01 274 DT25 251
Devon Johnson 0.02 275 OT27 UDFA
Nate Herbig 0.06 276 IOL16 244
Jovon Durante 0.07 277 WR36 UDFA
Felton Davis 0.03 278 WR37 UDFA
Tommy Sweeney 0.02 279 TE17 UDFA
Javon Patterson 0.05 280 IOL17 UDFA
Fred Johnson 0.04 281 IOL18 251
D'Cota Dixon 0.01 282 S27 UDFA
Jalin Moore 0.03 283 RB24 UDFA
Kerrith Whyte 0.02 284 RB25 UDFA
Jonathan Crawford 0.01 285 S28 UDFA
Hunter Renfrow 0.06 286 WR38 199
Jackson Barton 0.02 287 OT28 UDFA
Jordan Ta'amu 0.04 288 QB12 225
Lil'Jordan Humphrey 0.02 289 WR39 UDFA
Mike Jordan 0.01 290 OT29 UDFA
Hamp Cheevers 0.01 291 CB37 254
Andrew Beck 0.02 292 TE18 251
Ryan Pulley 0.01 293 CB38 UDFA
Kendall Blanton 0.01 294 TE19 UDFA
Alex Bars 0.03 295 IOL19 UDFA
Jeff Allison 0.03 296 LB29 UDFA
John Battle 0.00 297 S29 UDFA
DeMarcus Christmas 0.00 298 DT26 UDFA
Easton Stick 0.04 299 QB13 UDFA
Keenen Brown 0.00 300 TE20 UDFA
Travis Homer 0.01 301 RB26 UDFA
LJ Scott 0.00 302 RB27 UDFA
Ethan Greenidge 0.02 303 IOL20 UDFA
Jordan Jones 0.03 304 LB30 UDFA
Tyre Brady 0.01 305 WR40 UDFA
Jaylen Smith 0.00 306 WR41 UDFA
Darryl Johnson 0.05 307 EDGE33 UDFA
Tre Lamar 0.02 308 LB31 UDFA
Nick Fitzgerald 0.03 309 QB14 UDFA
Wyatt Ray 0.03 310 EDGE34 254
Zack Bailey 0.01 311 IOL21 UDFA
Kendall Joseph 0.01 312 LB32 UDFA
Dakota Allen 0.01 313 LB33 UDFA
Martez Ivey 0.01 314 IOL22 UDFA
Bryson Allen-Williams 0.00 315 LB34 UDFA
Nyqwan Murray 0.02 316 WR42 UDFA
Andre James 0.01 317 OT30 UDFA
William Sweet 0.00 318 OT31 UDFA
Jake Browning 0.02 319 QB15 UDFA
Otaro Alaka 0.00 320 LB35 UDFA
Gerri Green 0.01 321 EDGE35 UDFA
Jordan Scarlett 0.00 322 RB28 254
Trace McSorley 0.01 323 QB16 UDFA
Penny Hart 0.01 324 WR43 199
Iosua Opeta 0.01 325 IOL23 UDFA
Kyle Shurmur 0.00 326 QB17 UDFA
CeCe Jefferson 0.00 327 EDGE36 UDFA

 

Continue to Page 2 to view the variables in the models and some nuggets I picked up while studying the recent history of the NFL Draft.