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Kyler Murray
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NFL Draft Analytics Top 300

by Hayden Winks

Updated on 4/23/2019.

The goal of this is to predict NFL success as accurately as possible solely using analytics. Specifically, I’m predicting Pro Football Reference’s Approximate Value Per Game (AV/G) statistic using models that have college production, athletic testing, and consensus big board data.

After analyzing AV/G, I found that the statistic isn’t representative of positional spending and consensus positional value, so I’ve made slight adjustments in an attempt to have my top 300 big board reflect positional value, something that seems to be underrated during the draft. Adjusting for positional value will certainly make some people #MadOnline because the quarterbacks will be ranked higher than you are used to and the running backs and safeties will be ranked lower than you are used to. If you have a problem with that, ignore the overall ranking and focus on where they are ranked within their position.

Another thing that needs to be made abundantly clear is that these rankings include each prospect’s projected draft pick. There is a huge difference between ranking prospects with their draft capital in mind (that’s what I’m doing in the NFL Draft Analytics Top 300) and ranking prospects as if they were all drafted with the same overall pick. For example, projected top-15 pick Daniel Jones and projected Day 2 pick Will Grier basically have the same projection, but if Grier and Jones were both projected to be the 10th overall pick, Grier would be ranked much, much higher than Jones.

Lastly, one improvement I’ve had in modeling for the NFL Draft is to separate positions into different archetypes. Like Josh Norris has noted on the Rotoworld Football Podcast -- subscribe and leave a review -- the weight difference between receivers Marquise Brown and D.K. Metcalf is 62 pounds, so it’d be silly to use the same model for each receiver. For that reason, I’ve split running backs, wide receivers, defensive tackles, and edge rushers into groups using weight or height as the separator. Doing so helped increase the out of sample r-squares for each model.

 

NFL Draft Analytics Top 300

Just wanted to remind you that the models include projected draft capital and are adjusted for positional value. That's why Daniel Jones is ranked highly when he's absolutely not an analytics quarterback:

 

 

Prospect Position Percentile Analytics Rank Position Rank Winks Rank Position Rank Proj. Pick
Kyler Murray 1.00 1 QB1 1 QB1 1
Dwayne Haskins 0.91 2 QB2 2 QB2 11
Ed Oliver 0.99 3 DT1 5 DT2 5
Montez Sweat 0.96 4 EDGE1 6 EDGE2 16
Drew Lock 0.80 5 QB3 13 QB4 15
Brian Burns 0.95 6 EDGE2 8 EDGE4 15
Josh Allen 0.93 7 EDGE3 7 EDGE3 6
Will Grier 0.74 8 QB4 12 QB3 60
Rashan Gary 0.93 9 EDGE4 14 EDGE5 16
Quinnen Williams 0.97 10 DT2 3 DT1 4
Noah Fant 1.00 11 TE1 21 TE2 25
Jonah Williams 0.97 12 OT1 11 OT2 13
Nick Bosa 0.91 13 EDGE5 4 EDGE1 2
Daniel Jones 0.61 14 QB5 27 QB5 12
Ryan Finley 0.61 15 QB6 28 QB6 65
Devin White 0.99 16 LB1 9 LB1 5
Khalen Saunders 0.89 17 DT3 33 DT6 95
Andre Dillard 0.92 18 OT2 10 OT1 15
Dexter Lawrence 0.88 19 DT4 22 DT4 26
Devin Bush 0.98 20 LB2 16 LB2 12
Jeffery Simmons 0.95 21 DT5 17 DT3 25
Deandre Baker 0.97 22 CB1 18 CB1 32
Cody Ford 0.89 23 OT3 20 OT4 23
Jawaan Taylor 0.88 24 OT4 19 OT3 9
Joejuan Williams 0.96 25 CB2 30 CB3 70
Julian Love 0.96 26 CB3 31 CB4 61
Christian Wilkins 0.83 27 DT6 23 DT5 14
Kaleb McGary 0.86 28 OT5 32 OT5 40
Renell Wren 0.75 29 DT7 38 DT7 80
Garrett Bradbury 0.99 30 IOL1 24 IOL1 19
T.J. Hockenson 0.93 31 TE2 15 TE1 11
Clelin Ferrell 0.69 32 EDGE6 29 EDGE6 18
Chase Winovich 0.67 33 EDGE7 36 EDGE7 55
Greedy Williams 0.93 34 CB4 25 CB2 22
Chris Lindstrom 0.99 35 IOL2 26 IOL2 27
Zach Allen 0.65 36 EDGE8 39 EDGE8 70
Ben Banogu 0.63 37 EDGE9 55 EDGE9 104
N'Keal Harry 0.84 38 WR1 53 WR5 34
Hakeem Butler 0.83 39 WR2 35 WR2 35
Trayvon Mullen 0.88 40 CB5 43 CB6 65
Tytus Howard 0.74 41 OT6 50 OT7 76
Andy Isabella 0.88 42 WR3 70 WR8 145
Blake Cashman 0.87 43 LB3 57 LB3 95
Byron Murphy 0.86 44 CB6 37 CB5 28
Isaiah Johnson 0.86 45 CB7 52 CB8 67
Irv Smith Jr. 0.87 46 TE3 45 TE3 53
Dalton Risner 0.72 47 OT7 41 OT6 40
Erik McCoy 0.93 48 IOL3 40 IOL3 35
Chauncey Gardner-Johnson 0.91 49 S1 49 S2 39
A.J. Brown 0.84 50 WR4 42 WR3 34
Lonnie Johnson 0.84 51 CB8 47 CB7 38
Greg Little 0.70 52 OT8 51 OT8 43
Amani Hooker 0.87 53 S2 59 S5 68
Darnell Savage 0.89 54 S4 44 S1 35
Justin Hollins 0.59 55 EDGE10 67 EDGE11 152
D.K. Metcalf 0.72 56 WR5 48 WR4 24
Jamel Dean 0.80 57 CB9 68 CB12 86
Johnathan Abram 0.86 58 S3 54 S3 35
Marquise Brown 0.83 59 WR6 34 WR1 25
L.J. Collier 0.56 60 EDGE11 60 EDGE10 49
Maxx Crosby 0.56 61 EDGE12 71 EDGE12 92
Jace Sternberger 0.85 62 TE4 65 TE4 66
Rock Ya-Sin 0.78 63 CB10 56 CB9 32
Amani Oruwariye 0.78 64 CB11 66 CB11 75
Justin Layne 0.77 65 CB12 64 CB10 45
Parris Campbell 0.77 66 WR7 63 WR7 38
Jachai Polite 0.54 67 EDGE13 80 EDGE13 59
Ben Burr-Kirven 0.77 68 LB4 92 LB8 172
Germaine Pratt 0.79 69 LB5 74 LB5 85
Max Scharping 0.64 70 OT9 75 OT9 90
Tyree Jackson 0.35 71 QB8 181 QB11 104
Yodny Cajuste 0.62 72 OT10 76 OT10 87
Connor McGovern 0.84 73 IOL4 78 IOL5 90
Charles Omenihu 0.51 74 EDGE14 82 EDGE14 95
Emanuel Hall 0.64 75 WR8 84 WR10 103
Drue Tranquill 0.74 76 LB6 88 LB7 112
Elgton Jenkins 0.82 77 IOL5 72 IOL4 44
JJ Arcega-Whiteside 0.63 78 WR9 77 WR9 72
Mack Wilson 0.71 79 LB7 73 LB4 45
Jahlani Tavai 0.72 80 LB8 83 LB6 80
Josh Jacobs 0.88 81 RB1 69 RB1 27
Dillon Mitchell 0.73 82 WR10 148 WR17 160
Bobby Okereke 0.69 83 LB9 93 LB9 129
Deionte Thompson 0.73 84 S6 62 S6 56
David Long 0.63 85 CB13 89 CB13 87
Jerry Tillery 0.61 86 DT8 46 DT8 28
Kelvin Harmon 0.54 87 WR11 85 WR11 69
Dawson Knox 0.75 88 TE5 87 TE5 75
Nasir Adderley 0.71 89 S5 58 S4 35
Juan Thornhill 0.71 90 S8 79 S7 45
Saivion Smith 0.57 91 CB14 106 CB16 173
Anthony Nelson 0.42 92 EDGE15 91 EDGE15 89
John Cominsky 0.41 93 EDGE16 98 EDGE17 140
Dru Samia 0.56 94 OT11 94 OT11 98
David Long Jr. 0.63 95 LB10 100 LB10 143
Taylor Rapp 0.67 96 S7 86 S8 49
Miles Boykin 0.50 97 WR12 61 WR6 60
Kris Boyd 0.54 98 CB15 101 CB15 140
Sean Bunting 0.54 99 CB16 90 CB14 53
Stanley Morgan 0.61 100 WR13 117 WR13 248
Derick Roberson 0.43 101 EDGE17 127 EDGE21 237
Clayton Thorson 0.28 102 QB7 109 QB9 148
Jarrett Stidham 0.27 103 QB9 104 QB8 126
Dennis Daley 0.52 105 OT12 102 OT12 119
Mike Edwards 0.61 106 S9 108 S9 130
Kaden Smith 0.72 107 TE6 126 TE7 139
Deebo Samuel 0.58 108 WR14 95 WR12 56
Jaylon Ferguson 0.43 109 EDGE18 96 EDGE16 64
Ross Pierschbacher 0.49 110 OT13 116 OT14 144
Bobby Evans 0.48 111 OT14 105 OT13 109
Mitch Hyatt 0.47 112 OT15 125 OT16 200
Damien Harris 0.74 113 RB2 107 RB4 85
Michael Jackson 0.41 114 CB17 123 CB18 170
Darrell Henderson 0.82 115 RB3 97 RB2 66
Vosean Joseph 0.52 116 LB11 111 LB11 111
Oshane Ximines 0.37 117 EDGE19 112 EDGE19 108
Ashton Dulin 0.54 118 WR16 156 WR21 254
KeeSean Johnson 0.51 119 WR15 131 WR14 200
Kendall Sheffield 0.39 120 CB18 120 CB17 132
David Edwards 0.44 121 OT20 121 OT15 135
Malik Carney 0.35 122 EDGE20 129 EDGE22 181
D'Andre Walker 0.34 123 EDGE21 110 EDGE18 85
Gerald Willis 0.46 124 DT9 119 DT11 109
Dre'Mont Jones 0.43 125 DT10 103 DT9 59
Mecole Hardman 0.47 126 WR17 132 WR15 101
Michael Deiter 0.61 127 IOL6 114 IOL6 82
Nate Davis 0.59 128 IOL7 118 IOL7 96
Will Harris 0.41 129 S10 130 S10 160
Montre Hartage 0.31 130 CB19 141 CB20 216
Mark Fields 0.31 131 CB20 134 CB19 162
Miles Sanders 0.71 132 RB4 99 RB3 50
Chuma Edoga 0.39 133 OT16 128 OT17 145
Darius Slayton 0.40 134 WR18 149 WR18 152
Trysten Hill 0.39 135 DT11 115 DT10 60
Marvell Tell 0.38 136 S11 138 S11 171
Davante Davis 0.28 137 CB21 170 CB26 UDFA
Jamal Peters 0.27 138 CB22 165 CB24 UDFA
Derrick Baity 0.26 139 CB23 163 CB23 UDFA
Ugo Amadi 0.33 140 S12 139 S12 163
Daylon Mack 0.27 141 DT12 140 DT13 165
Daniel Wise 0.32 142 DT13 133 DT12 128
David Montgomery 0.59 143 RB5 122 RB5 82
Christian Miller 0.28 144 EDGE22 124 EDGE20 99
Kahale Warring 0.51 145 TE7 113 TE6 101
Oli Udoh 0.36 146 OT17 144 OT18 193
Cameron Smith 0.38 147 LB12 145 LB12 190
Tim Harris 0.21 148 CB24 176 CB27 UDFA
Iman Marshall 0.21 149 CB25 179 CB28 254
Jordan Brown 0.18 150 CB26 143 CB21 173
Khari Willis 0.28 151 S13 153 S14 203
Sheldrick Redwine 0.29 152 S14 154 S15 200
Ryan Bates 0.46 153 IOL8 157 IOL8 209
Foster Moreau 0.47 154 TE8 142 TE9 149
Josh Oliver 0.42 155 TE9 137 TE8 108
Caleb Wilson 0.41 156 TE10 161 TE10 215
Justice Hill 0.55 157 RB6 136 RB6 90
Marquise Blair 0.26 158 S15 151 S13 164
Zedrick Woods 0.24 159 S16 177 S16 251
Tyler Jones 0.29 160 OT18 160 OT20 190
Tyler Roemer 0.28 161 OT19 158 OT19 186
Trey Pipkins 0.26 162 OT21 162 OT21 200
Corey Ballentine 0.18 163 CB27 147 CB22 143
Jalen Hurd 0.36 164 WR19 135 WR16 140
Gary Jennings 0.26 165 WR20 150 WR19 168
Rodney Anderson 0.48 166 RB7 152 RB7 143
Austin Bryant 0.17 167 EDGE23 146 EDGE23 130
Benny Snell 0.43 168 RB8 164 RB8 190
Gardner Minshew 0.19 169 QB10 178 QB10 235
Keelan Doss 0.33 170 WR21 169 WR24 200
Blessuan Austin 0.15 171 CB28 202 CB30 UDFA
Derrek Thomas 0.14 172 CB29 167 CB25 186
Kingsley Keke 0.23 173 DT14 159 DT14 150
Brett Rypien 0.18 174 QB11 81 QB7 207
Olamide Zaccheaus 0.33 175 WR22 201 WR28 UDFA
Travis Fulgham 0.30 176 WR23 171 WR25 183
David Sills 0.28 177 WR24 168 WR23 170
Alijah Holder 0.11 178 CB30 211 CB31 UDFA
Gary Johnson 0.29 179 LB13 197 LB15 254
Sione Takitaki 0.29 180 LB14 185 LB13 220
Darius West 0.20 181 S17 193 S19 247
Saquan Hampton 0.16 182 S18 190 S18 238
Anthony Johnson 0.26 183 WR25 174 WR26 173
Deion Calhoun 0.35 184 IOL9 187 IOL12 221
Hjalte Froholdt 0.34 185 IOL10 180 IOL10 180
Cody Barton 0.26 186 LB15 194 LB14 232
Isaac Nauta 0.31 187 TE11 175 TE11 163
Lamont Gaillard 0.32 188 IOL11 172 IOL9 156
Malik Gant 0.13 189 S19 183 S17 187
Isaiah Buggs 0.20 190 DT15 173 DT15 150
Jordan Miller 0.08 191 CB31 195 CB29 218
Darwin Thompson 0.38 192 RB9 189 RB10 199
James Williams 0.36 193 RB10 208 RB13 250
DaMarkus Lodge 0.22 194 WR26 184 WR27 175
T.J. Edwards 0.24 195 LB16 203 LB18 231
Michael Dogbe 0.19 196 DT16 198 DT16 207
Alex Barnes 0.26 197 RB11 219 RB16 254
Ben Powers 0.28 198 IOL12 186 IOL11 166
Joe Jackson 0.04 199 EDGE24 182 EDGE24 150
Rashad Fenton 0.06 200 CB32 228 CB33 UDFA
Isaiah Prince 0.16 201 OT22 212 OT24 231
Joshua Miles 0.15 202 OT23 210 OT23 214
Antoine Wesley 0.19 203 WR27 205 WR29 208
Dexter Williams 0.34 204 RB12 188 RB9 161
Devin Singletary 0.33 205 RB13 192 RB12 95
Emeke Egbule 0.22 206 LB17 200 LB17 185
Kaden Elliss 0.21 207 LB18 199 LB16 230
Armon Watts 0.15 208 DT17 204 DT17 192
Byron Cowart 0.13 209 DT18 216 DT18 227
Blace Brown 0.05 210 CB33 231 CB34 UDFA
Kendarius Webster 0.04 211 CB34 234 CB35 UDFA
Sutton Smith 0.21 212 EDGE25 217 EDGE26 224
Shareef Miller 0.21 213 EDGE26 220 EDGE27 215
Jordan Brailford 0.20 214 EDGE27 226 EDGE29 246
Jalen Jelks 0.19 215 EDGE28 196 EDGE25 148
Evan Worthington 0.09 216 S20 209 S20 185
Trayveon Williams 0.29 217 RB14 191 RB11 135
Devine Ozigbo 0.23 218 RB15 215 RB14 215
Phil Haynes 0.20 219 IOL13 221 IOL14 203
Beau Benzschawel 0.19 220 IOL14 213 IOL13 175
Cortez Broughton 0.11 221 DT19 222 DT19 206
Bryce Love 0.26 222 RB16 230 RB18 230
Ryquell Armstead 0.21 223 RB17 218 RB15 185
Alexander Mattison 0.19 224 RB18 227 RB17 229
Terrill Hanks 0.18 225 LB19 207 LB19 150
Xavier Crawford 0.04 226 CB35 241 CB36 UDFA
Jamal Davis 0.13 227 EDGE29 244 EDGE30 UDFA
Carl Granderson 0.13 228 EDGE30 224 EDGE28 191
Ty Summers 0.17 229 LB20 235 LB20 236
Tre Watson 0.17 230 LB21 239 LB21 253
Jaquan Johnson 0.08 231 S21 223 S21 178
Lukas Denis 0.07 232 S22 242 S23 254
Yosh Nijman 0.11 233 OT24 206 OT22 UDFA
Greg Dortch 0.19 234 WR28 245 WR31 254
Trevon Wesco 0.18 235 TE12 229 TE13 195
Drew Sample 0.18 236 TE13 225 TE12 167
Jimmy Moreland 0.03 237 CB36 214 CB32 130
Mike Weber 0.20 238 RB19 238 RB20 220
Porter Gustin 0.12 239 EDGE31 251 EDGE31 UDFA
Ryan Connelly 0.16 240 LB22 243 LB22 253
Tyrel Dodson 0.16 241 LB23 252 LB23 UDFA
Mike Bell 0.06 242 S23 236 S22 197
Dontavius Russell 0.05 243 DT20 233 DT20 191
Chris Slayton 0.08 244 DT21 248 DT21 254
Myles Gaskin 0.15 245 RB20 237 RB19 189
Qadree Ollison 0.11 246 RB21 246 RB21 250
Preston Williams 0.12 247 WR29 247 WR32 247
Andrew Wingard 0.06 248 S24 259 S24 UDFA
Greg Gaines 0.03 249 DT22 249 DT22 250
Terry Godwin 0.14 250 WR30 250 WR33 250
Elijah Holyfield 0.10 251 RB22 253 RB22 254
Mark McLaurin 0.04 252 S25 266 S25 UDFA
Kevin Givens 0.05 253 DT23 265 DT24 UDFA
Zach Gentry 0.15 254 TE14 258 TE16 254
Alizé Mack 0.14 255 TE15 255 TE15 254
Diontae Johnson 0.12 256 WR31 232 WR30 148
Terry McLaurin 0.06 257 WR32 166 WR22 70
Te'Von Coney 0.11 258 LB24 262 LB25 254
Terry Beckner 0.03 259 DT24 260 DT23 254
Jakobi Meyers 0.05 260 WR34 257 WR34 248
Riley Ridley 0.01 261 WR33 155 WR20 82
Dax Raymond 0.10 262 TE16 240 TE14 160
Karan Higdon 0.08 263 RB23 263 RB23 254
Deshaun Davis 0.09 264 LB25 268 LB27 254
Andrew Van Ginkel 0.08 265 LB26 274 LB28 UDFA
Dre Greenlaw 0.08 266 LB27 256 LB24 229
Donovan Wilson 0.03 267 S26 276 S26 UDFA
Trevon Tate 0.08 268 IOL15 254 IOL15 217
Paul Adams 0.05 269 OT25 275 OT26 UDFA
Derwin Gray 0.05 270 OT26 269 OT25 252
Joe Giles-Harris 0.06 272 LB28 264 LB26 234
Jonathan Ledbetter 0.03 273 EDGE32 261 EDGE32 217
Albert Huggins 0.01 274 DT25 271 DT25 251
Devon Johnson 0.02 275 OT27 279 OT27 UDFA
Nate Herbig 0.06 276 IOL16 270 IOL16 244
Jovon Durante 0.07 277 WR36 281 WR36 UDFA
Felton Davis 0.03 278 WR37 282 WR37 UDFA
Tommy Sweeney 0.02 279 TE17 277 TE17 UDFA
Javon Patterson 0.05 280 IOL17 283 IOL18 UDFA
Fred Johnson 0.04 281 IOL18 273 IOL17 251
D'Cota Dixon 0.01 282 S27 285 S27 UDFA
Jalin Moore 0.03 283 RB24 286 RB25 UDFA
Kerrith Whyte 0.02 284 RB25 278 RB24 UDFA
Jonathan Crawford 0.01 285 S28 288 S28 UDFA
Hunter Renfrow 0.06 286 WR38 267 WR35 199
Jackson Barton 0.02 287 OT28 289 OT28 UDFA
Jordan Ta'amu 0.04 288 QB12 272 QB12 225
Lil'Jordan Humphrey 0.02 289 WR39 287 WR38 UDFA
Mike Jordan 0.01 290 OT29 291 OT29 UDFA
Hamp Cheevers 0.01 291 CB37 284 CB37 254
Andrew Beck 0.02 292 TE18 280 TE18 251
Ryan Pulley 0.01 293 CB38 294 CB38 UDFA
Kendall Blanton 0.01 294 TE19 295 TE19 UDFA
Alex Bars 0.03 295 IOL19 290 IOL19 UDFA
Jeff Allison 0.03 296 LB29 297 LB29 UDFA
John Battle 0.00 297 S29 298 S29 UDFA
DeMarcus Christmas 0.00 298 DT26 293 DT26 UDFA
Easton Stick 0.04 299 QB13 299 QB13 UDFA
Keenen Brown 0.00 300 TE20 302 TE20 UDFA
Travis Homer 0.01 301 RB26 296 RB26 UDFA
LJ Scott 0.00 302 RB27 300 RB27 UDFA
Ethan Greenidge 0.02 303 IOL20 304 IOL20 UDFA
Jordan Jones 0.03 304 LB30 305 LB31 UDFA
Tyre Brady 0.01 305 WR40 306 WR40 UDFA
Jaylen Smith 0.00 306 WR41 307 WR41 UDFA
Darryl Johnson 0.05 307 EDGE33 308 EDGE34 UDFA
Tre Lamar 0.02 308 LB31 303 LB30 UDFA
Nick Fitzgerald 0.03 309 QB14 309 QB14 UDFA
Wyatt Ray 0.03 310 EDGE34 301 EDGE33 254
Zack Bailey 0.01 311 IOL21 313 IOL22 UDFA
Kendall Joseph 0.01 312 LB32 310 LB32 UDFA
Dakota Allen 0.01 313 LB33 314 LB33 UDFA
Martez Ivey 0.01 314 IOL22 311 IOL21 UDFA
Bryson Allen-Williams 0.00 315 LB34 315 LB34 UDFA
Nyqwan Murray 0.02 316 WR42 316 WR42 UDFA
Andre James 0.01 317 OT30 317 OT30 UDFA
William Sweet 0.00 318 OT31 318 OT31 UDFA
Jake Browning 0.02 319 QB15 319 QB15 UDFA
Otaro Alaka 0.00 320 LB35 320 LB35 UDFA
Gerri Green 0.01 321 EDGE35 321 EDGE35 UDFA
Jordan Scarlett 0.00 322 RB28 312 RB28 254
Trace McSorley 0.01 323 QB16 322 QB16 UDFA
Penny Hart 0.01 324 WR43 292 WR39 199
Iosua Opeta 0.01 325 IOL23 324 IOL23 UDFA
Kyle Shurmur 0.00 326 QB17 325 QB17 UDFA
CeCe Jefferson 0.00 327 EDGE36 323 EDGE36 UDFA

 

If you don't see your favorite sleeper listed, it's probably because he's not good and you should find a new sleeper. But there's also a chance he got lost in the process (trust it), so reach out to me on the twitter machine (@HaydenWinks) if that's the case.

 

Continue to Page 2 to view the variables in the models and some nuggets I picked up while studying the recent history of the NFL Draft.

Hayden Winks