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NFL Draft Analytics Top 300

by Hayden Winks
Updated On: July 28, 2019, 12:16 pm ET

Interior Defensive Linemen

Small IDL (under 310 lbs.) model variables: draft capital, age, weight-adjusted speed, bench, agility, tackling production, and pass deflections. … Big IDL (at least 310 lbs.) model variables: draft capital, age, weight-adjusted speed, bench, agility, and tackling production.

Underrated: Ed Oliver, Khalen Saunders, Renell Wren, Michael Dogbe, Byron Cowart. … Overrated: Christian Wilkins if he goes top 15, Jerry Tillery if he goes top 20, Albert Huggins.

 

Edge Rushers

Small EDGE (under 270 lbs.) model variables: draft capital, age, weight-adjusted speed, jumping, agility, and tackling production. … Big EDGE (at least 270 lbs.) model variables: draft capital, age, weight, weight-adjusted speed, jumping, tackling production, and pass deflections.

Underrated: Brian Burns, Zach Allen, Ben Banogu, Justin Hollins, Derick Roberson, John Cominsky. … Overrated: Tempted to put Nick Bosa but I’m smarter than that, Clelin Ferrell, Jachai Polite, Jaylon Ferguson, Christian Miller, Jalen Jelks.

One thing I learned: Athleticism for edge rushers is unbelievably important, and that's why the models have Montez Sweat, Brian Burns, and Rashan Gary a tad higher than you'll see on most analysts boards. But I'm pretty sure some of these metrics without historical data will be predictive once the sample size is big enough for me to test. One of the metrics I'm most bullish on is Sports Info Solutions' pressure rate, and here's how this year's class matches up:

 

 

Linebackers

LB model variables: draft capital, age, weight, weight-adjusted speed, agility, and tackling production.

Underrated: Blake Cashman, Ben Burr-Kirven, Drue Tranquill, Gary Johnson. … Overrated: Mack Wilson, Vosean Joseph, Emeke Egbule, Terrill Hanks.

 

Cornerbacks

CB model variables: draft capital, age, height, weight, weight-adjusted speed, jumping, strength of schedule, tackling production, and All American honors.

Underrated: Joejuan Williams, Julian Love, Amani Oruwariye, Jamel Dean. … Overrated: Sean Bunting, Kendall Sheffield, Jimmy Moreland, Hamp Cheevers.

One thing I learned: Size for corners matters more than I thought. Being taller has historically helped as long as the size was preventing him from being explosive and being too thin has been a really bad sign. That's potentially bad news for Greedy Williams who is 6-foot-2 and 185 pounds. Just check out the group of corners with similar thickness:

 

Safeties

S model variables: draft capital, age, strength of schedule, thickness, speed, agility, tackling production, and pass deflections.

Underrated: Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, Amani Hooker, Darnell Savage. … Overrated: Nasir Adderley if he goes top 30, Taylor Rapp, Deionte Thompson.

 

What's next?

The entire Rotoworld team will be publishing rankings and mock drafts up until the Arizona Cardinals are on the clock. Josh Norris also has a full schedule of guests for the Rotoworld Football Podcast, so be sure to listen, subscribe, and leave a review. My last piece this #DraftSZN will be an NFL Draft Prop Bets column that I think you'll enjoy, and I've already ran through a few of my favorites on Twitter if you want to get the best prices.