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FanDuel Strategy

FanDuel Fit: Bermuda Championship

by Josh Culp
Updated On: October 28, 2020, 4:04 am ET

Port Royal Golf Course is set to host this week's Bermuda Championship. It will be the second running of this event, with Brendon Todd winning the inaugural edition last year. 

What do we know about the course? It's a short (6,828 yards) coastal course with bermudagrass turf. 

There are 132 golfers pegging it this week and the top 65 and ties will make it to the weekend. 

We only have one year of history to lean on so let's try to dive into the stats to see what golfers might fit the course. 

Bermudagrass

These pros are so good that grass type doesn't reflect their ability to take it low on a given course. However, it does often impact the consistency of golfers. Some that grew up in the South really enjoy the challenge that comes along with playing on bermuda turf. 

Let's see who has performed best on courses with bermudagrass greens, over the last two years: 

Tom Lewis
Jhonattan Vegas
Brendon Todd
Denny McCarthy
Charley Hoffman
Doc Redman
Henrik Stenson
Keith Mitchell
Brian Stuard
Aaron Wise
Will Zalatoris
Scott Stallings
Scott Piercy
Cameron Tringale
Pat Perez

We can also look at a golfer's performance versus their baseline to see who over-performs most. Here is that list: 

Jhonattan Vegas
Seamus Power
Shawn Stefani
Lucas Bjerregaard
Tom Lewis
Maverick McNealy
Kramer Hickok
Mark Anderson
Derek Ernst
Mike Miller
Jamie Lovemark
Keith Mitchell
Charley Hoffman
Will Zalatoris
Hunter Mahan

Overlap List: names that show up on both lists include Tom Lewis, Jhonattan Vegas, Keith Mitchell, Charley Hoffman, and Will Zalatoris.

 

 

Short Course Comfort

When it comes to tossing together a golf course on an island, real estate is at a premium. Add in the coastal winds, and you don't need a lot of length to challenge the everyday resort visitor. It's no wonder that Port Royal only sits a little over 6,800 yards then. 

There are eight par 4s under 415 yards this week and three par 5s all under 555 yards. This is one of the shortest courses you'll see all year in a PGA TOUR event. 

Here are the top performers on short courses, over the last two years: 

Rasmus Hojgaard
Harold Varner III
Henrik Stenson
Brendon Todd
Vaughn Taylor
Rafa Cabrera Bello
Doc Redman
Denny McCarthy
Will Gordon
Russell Knox
Emiliano Grillo
Branden Grace
Tom Lewis
Andrew Putnam
Ryan Armour

We can also look at a golfer's performance versus their baseline to see who over-performs most. Here is that list: 

John Oda
Jonathan Byrd
Arjun Atwal
Will Gordon
Matt Every
Rafael Campos
Rob Oppenheim
Hank Lebioda
Fabian Gomez
Seamus Power
Tommy Gainey
Rasmus Hojgaard
Ryan Armour
Michael Gligic
Kristoffer Ventura

Overlap List: names that show up on both lists include Will Gordon, Rasmus Hojgaard, and Ryan Armour

 

FanDuel Focus 

Will Gordon ($8,800): The Vanderbilt product stormed onto the scene last year but has failed to reproduce those results at a consistent level. When we dive deeper into his stats we see there are three events where he's gained more than 6 strokes tee-to-green. Those events were the Travelers, the Wyndham, and The RSM Classic. All three are played on short courses. It's surprising because he packs a lot of power but those early results might suggest that he's better suited to a course that allows him driver-wedge on a lot of holes instead of relying on his mid-iron game. 

Tom Lewis ($9,700): The Englishman has surprised me with his performance on bermuda over the last few years. He continues to perform above his baseline on the grainy turf. When looking at worldwider performance on bermuda, he's posted top-20 worthy performances in five of his last 11 starts on bermudagrass greens. That ratio (45%) is best in the field ahead of Brendon Todd, Rafa Cabrera Bello, Jhonattan Vegas, and Denny McCarthy, over that same time frame. All of them make for appealing plays this week due to upside but it's Lewis who caught my eye originally. 

Josh Culp
Josh Culp joined Rotoworld in 2014. The DFS enthusiast from Iowa State can be found on Twitter @futureoffantasy.