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Ian Poulter
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FanDuel Strategy

FanDuel Fit: The RSM Classic

by Josh Culp
Updated On: November 18, 2020, 9:25 am ET

This week's event gives us two courses to research. Luckily, they have plenty of shared characteristics so we should be able to hone in on some stats that show us what golfers might fit both of the courses. 

The first course, and the host, is the Seaside Course at Sea Island Golf Resort. It will be seen three times by any golfer that makes it through the 36-hole cut line. It's a par 70 that plays right around 7,000 yards, so we are looking at a short layout. The second track is the Plantation Course which will be played just once by everyone in the field this week. It's also short and plays as a par 72 on the score sheet. 

They are playing right on the Atlantic coast so we can look at performance on similar coastal courses if we'd like. 

We talked about the course length so the driver isn't the most important weapon this week. We could take a look at performance on less-than-driver courses like Sedgefield, Waialae, Harbour Town, etc. 

Another angle could be the scoring environment. We know the winners generally crack the 19-under mark at this event so you need to go low. It could be worth looking at performance on other courses that yield low scores. 

What about grass? The courses feature paspalum and bermudagrass. They bermuda was overseeded last month but the overseed is likely just lurking at this time of year until the bermuda goes dormant over the winter. 

Let's pluck out bermuda and short-course performance to see who pops. 

Bermuda Greens

The greens at Sea Island Golf Resort are bermudagrass. What have golfers said about the grass at Sea Island over the last few years? 

"I really like this type of grass. I grew up on this in Australia, kind of like nice, tight bermudagrass." - Rhein Gibson

"I love bermuda greens. I grew up on bermuda greens like we have here. I feel like I putt bermuda greens well." -Hudson Swafford

"I think it’s the same type of strain [TPC Sawgrass], but I love bermuda greens. Bermuda nowadays runs so well. It feels nice being on bermuda." -Webb Simpson

Let's see who has performed best on courses with bermuda greens, over the last two years: 

Webb Simpson
Matthew Fitzpatrick
Tommy Fleetwood
Shane Lowry
Jason Day
Jason Kokrak
Lee Westwood
Louis Oosthuizen
Matt Kuchar
Sungjae Im
Rory Sabbatini
Justin Rose
Ian Poulter
Kevin Kisner
Corey Conners

We can also look at a golfer's performance versus their baseline to see who over-performs most. Here is that list: 

Maverick McNealy
Mark Anderson
Jhonattan Vegas
Matthew Fitzpatrick
Rory Sabbatini
Chris Kirk
Joel Dahmen
Denny McCarthy
Ryan Armour
Shane Lowry
Jamie Lovemark
D.A. Points
Jason Kokrak
Fabian Gomez
Patton Kizzire

Overlap List: names that show up on both lists include Matthew Fitzpatrick, Rory Sabbatini, Shane Lowry, and Jason Kokrak

We know Sabbatini is slumping in a big way right now but the other three are squarely in play. If Sabbs were to snap out his slump, this would be a good venue to do so. 

 

Short Courses

The courses being played at Sea Island this week are both under 7,100 yards and don't demand distance. 

Here are the top performers on courses I've marked on the short side of the spectrum, over the last two years: 

Webb Simpson
Tyrrell Hatton
Ian Poulter
Louis Oosthuizen
Matt Kuchar
Tommy Fleetwood
Shane Lowry
Jason Day
Sam Burns
Henrik Stenson
J.T. Poston
Adam Hadwin
Sungjae Im
Lee Westwood
Matt Wallace

We can also look at a golfer's performance versus their baseline to see who over-performs most. Here is that list: 

Sean O'Hair
Jonathan Byrd
Andrew Landry
Sam Burns
Jim Herman
Hank Lebioda
Matt Every
Rob Oppenheim
Will Gordon
Michael Gligic
Ryan Armour
Joey Garber
Satoshi Kodaira
Ian Poulter
Chesson Hadley

Overlap List: names that show up on both lists include Sam Burns and Ian Poulter.

 

FanDuel Focus 

Maverick McNealy ($8,700): The Stanford product ranks first in the field when it comes to performance on bermuda over his baseline. Highlights include a runner-up finish at the 2019 Suncoast Classic, a T11 at the 2020 Honda Classic, and a trio of top 25s on bermuda this fall (Sanderson Farms, Bermuda Championship, Houston). That recent three-pack of top 25s have come in his last four starts so he should be bringing some extra confidence to the table when it comes to performing on this kind of turf. 

Sam Burns ($9,300): He's held two 36-hole leads this season, in just five starts. That includes a 36- and 54-hole lead in his most recent event played, the Vivint Houston Open. He settled for T7 but there is plenty to be learned from playing with a lead heading into Sunday. Perhaps he'll take what he learned and apply it right away as he heads to another course with bermuda greens. UPDATE: Burns has withdrawn from the field prior to the start of the event. 

Josh Culp
Josh Culp joined Rotoworld in 2014. The DFS enthusiast from Iowa State can be found on Twitter @futureoffantasy.