Teams are listed in order of their implied points.
Page 1: LAR, BUF, SEA, GB, NYG, DAL, NE, ATL, SF
Page 2: IND, BAL, JAX, ARI, PHI, MIN, HOU, DEN, DET
Page 3: TEN, CHI, CIN, OAK, LAC, NO, NYJ, WAS, MIA
TNF: KC, DEN
Byes: CAR, CLE, PIT, TB
10. Colts (24, -1) vs. HOU
Jacoby Brissett has been very inconsistent. He has three games with fewer than 200 passing yards and two games with 265+ yards. With the Texans coming to Indy, Brissett should be projected for an above-average game. Houston is in the bottom 25th percentile against fantasy quarterbacks, and Brissett’s two best games this season were at home. Brissett has some upside as a QB2 and is one of the best bye-week streamers. … Marlon Mack’s lack of receiving work (1.4 receptions per game) puts him at risk of falling out of the game plan, but the Colts want to give Mack the rock whenever possible. He’s averaging 20.2 carries and is due for some positive touchdown regression (470 yards to just two touchdowns). The Texans Defense has been very average thus far and the Colts are projected for 24 points, so Mack is an RB1/2.
T.Y. Hilton has been targeted 3.4 yards shallower on average in 2019 than he was last season. That’s a product of the quarterback change -- the Colts are dead last in 20+ yard passing plays per game -- and it definitely lowers Hilton’s ceiling. His overall usage is that of a WR2/3, but he’s more of a low-end WR2 this week in a matchup against the Texans’ injured and backup corners. … Receiver usage beyond Hilton is far too unpredictable and too limited to rely on Zach Pascal, Deon Cain, Chester Rogers, or Parris Campbell (out) in season-long leagues. … Eric Ebron’s usage spiked a little bit with Hilton out, but he’s a touchdown-dependent TE2 with his 3-5 target projection. A similar but slightly worse story can be told about Jack Doyle.
11. Ravens (23.5, +3.5) @ SEA
Last week’s 152 rushing yard performance is just the latest accomplishment for fantasy’s QB1 overall. Lamar Jackson is running like Mike Vick -- he’s on pace for 1,227 rushing yards -- and has made a big leap as a passer from his rookie season. The Seahawks’ defense just allowed 35 yards and a rushing touchdown last week. The issues here are playing in Seattle and Marquise Brown’s very questionable status. Brown’s field-stretching ability raises Jackson’s ceiling as a passer greatly, so Jackson is not as elite of a QB1 as he has been this week. Still a top-five option. … Mark Ingram lost snaps and touches to Gus Edwards (6 carries) and Justice Hill (5 carries) last week, but he’s still the clear-cut top member of the committee. Ingram’s six rushing touchdowns inside-the-five lead the NFL and his 12-16 carries and 1-2 receptions per game are enough to make Ingram a high-end RB2 in this run-first offense. Gus Edwards and Justice Hill are average handcuffs with minimal standalone value.
Marquise Brown hasn’t practiced yet and looks unlikely to play, so it will primarily be the Mark Andrews show. Andrews was finally able to get off the injury report this week and will be heavily utilized as Jackson’s top target. It’s a noisy (largely unpredictable stat), but the Seahawks are in the bottom 10th percentile against tight end this season. Andrews is in the discussion for the TE1 overall this week. … Willie Snead and Miles Boykin are the top wide receivers with Brown gone, but neither has seen enough usage to get too excited about. Boykin’s athleticism gives him more upside than slot receiver Snead. Both are zero-floor WR5s. Perhaps Boykin is worth a stack with Jackson in large-sized DFS tournaments.
12. Jaguars (23.25, -3) @ CIN
Update: Dede Westbrook was limited in Friday's practice and is officially questionable. I'm guessing he plays through his shoulder injury, so I'm leaving him as a WR4. Obviously he carries setback risk, so I'd try to find another option if possible.
Gardner Minshew was slowed down by a surging Saints Defense last week, but the matchup is far easier this week. The Bengals were already in the bottom 10th percentile defense against fantasy quarterbacks and will be without their best corner, Dre Kirkpatrick. Minshew is a streamable QB1/2 for those in bye-week trouble. … Leonard Fournette is third in carries (19.2 per game) and is on pace for a very nice 69 receptions. His usage is elite, but he’s not quite producing like an elite fantasy running back with the Jaguars 29th in plays per minute and 23rd in points per game. In a friendly matchup like this week’s (see chart above), it’s easier to project RB1 production for Fournette.
D.J. Chark is eighth in air yards this season and has had stable usage in every game thus far. Chark’s 12.0 yards per target is due to regress, but as long as he’s seeing 7-11 targets, Chark is a rock-solid WR2 in fantasy. The fact that the Bengals are missing multiple corners just adds to the fire. … Dede Westbrook has operated as Minshew’s check-down option underneath, which lowers his overall ceiling but keeps him in the mix as a WR4. The matchup is as good as it gets, too. … Chris Conley is a low-volume deep threat who needs a touchdown to cash.
13. Cardinals (23.25, +3) @ NYG
Update: David Johnson and Christian Kirk are game-time decisions. Kliff Kingsbury said DJ wouldn't have played if the game were on Friday, but I'd guess he'll be out there on Sunday. Chase Edmonds has to be owned, however. Edmonds would be a plug-and-play RB1/2 if Johnson was ruled out. On the surface, Kirk seems more questionable than Johnson.
Kyler Murray is stacking good-to-great games. The offense looks more complete now that Murray’s slinging the ball downfield and now that he’s running the ball (at least 27 rushing yards in four-straight games after opening the season with 13 and four yards). Murray is quietly the QB7 overall and is beginning to earn every-week QB1 treatment. There’s a decent chance Murray ends the year as a top-six fantasy quarterback. Murray is an upside QB1 play against the Giants’ bottom 12th percentile defense against fantasy quarterbacks. … David Johnson played through a back injury and ended with 12-34-1 on the ground and 6-68-1 as a receiver. DJ is essentially a fantasy WR3 who sees 10-18 carries per game. There are few paths for failure with Johnson given his rushing and receiving role, making Johnson an every-week RB1. Murray and Johnson are DFS building blocks this week. … As I mentioned in the Week 6 Recap Podcast, make sure to own Chase Edmonds if your bench is deep enough. Edmonds is an awesome fantasy handcuff.
Christian Kirk is “still in the rehab” and is very questionable for Week 7. If he plays, you start him in this matchup against the Giants’ bottom 10th percentile defense against fantasy receivers. … Larry Fitzgerald will have awesome usage regardless if Kirk plays. The veteran is 14th in targets (52) and is tied for first in targets inside-the-10 (7). Those are by far the most valuable targets in fantasy (see Tweet below). Fitzgerald is an upside WR2 and a great DFS tournament option in a stack with Kyler. … The offense revolves around D.J. and the slot receivers, but KeeSean Johnson is a complete dart throw after seeing 12 targets in the last two weeks. He’s due for some positive regression after only collecting 151 yards on 31 targets this season. The rookie is a WR5.
14. Eagles (23.25, +3) @ DAL
Carson Wentz only has two completions on passes 25+ yards downfield since Week 1. He desperately needs DeSean Jackson back. Wentz is still averaging 243 yards and 2.0 touchdowns this season, but it’s a lot easier to reach a ceiling with DJax running go routes. In his last three games against the Cowboys, Wentz has posted 19.8, 25.1, and 20.0 DraftKings points. He’s a low-end QB1 regardless, but I’d be more willing to use Wentz if Jackson is healthy, which doesn’t look likely. … Jordan Howard saw 13 carries to Miles Sanders’ four last week and has now averaged 13.0 carries per game over the last four. Howard is also tied for third in inside-the-five touchdowns, giving him some weekly upside if the Eagles build a lead. Vegas doesn’t expect that to happen this week (3-point dogs), but Howard has enough volume to sit on the RB2/3 borderline. Sanders, who is 38th out of 38 in PFF’s run grades this season, has little-to-zero standalone value.
DeSean Jackson still hasn’t practiced and looks unlikely to play. Alshon Jeffery will continue to operate as the No. 1 receiver (9.7 targets per game over the last three games). Jeffery has played at his career average against the Cowboys, who are in the bottom 30th percentile in pass defense DVOA. Alshon is a fine WR2/3 with touchdown equity. … Nelson Agholor needs the Eagles to be chasing points to be involved with Alshon healthy and Vegas has this as a 3-point game. Agholor is a zero-floor WR5. … Zach Ertz is leading the position in targets and is second in air yards. The Cowboys have also been worse at defending tight ends compared to receivers this season, so Ertz is an obvious elite TE1. … Dallas Goedert is 11th in tight end targets over the last three weeks (14) and is at least attached to a capable offense if you’re looking for a tight end streamer.
15. Vikings (23, -1) @ DET
Kirk Cousins has found his groove recently, but they were games against the Giants and Eagles. This week’s road matchup against the Lions will be a far tougher test, and I’m betting on Cousins’ regressing with the Vikings heading back to a run-heavy approach. Cousins is a QB2. … Dalvin Cook has 18 touches in every game. When the Vikings are winning, Cook gets fed on the ground. When they’re trailing, Cook sees 5+ targets. He’s an every-week elite RB1. As a bonus, the Lions Defense is in the bottom sixth percentile against fantasy backs.
LOL at Stefon Diggs’ chart. Last week was a reminder of what this passing offense can look like when they actually use their star receivers. Diggs is capable of blowup games like this, but he’s still at the mercy of the offensive philosophy. Whenever Cook gets going, Diggs can be game scripted out of favor, making him a boom-or-bust WR2/3 in most matchups. This week Diggs will go head-to-head with CB Darius Slay, who has done a good job at limiting Diggs in the last three games. … Adam Thielen has been steadier than Diggs overall and his individual matchup this week is slightly easier as well. Thielen’s status as a fringe WR1/2 is unchanged by Diggs’ huge game.
16. Texans (23, +1) @ IND
Deshaun Watson is tied for fourth in passing touchdowns and is tied for sixth in rushing touchdowns. Elite production. Elite receivers. And the Texans are sixth in PFF’s pass-blocking grade. Watson is a top-five QB regardless of matchup, but it’s worth noting that the Colts’ zone defense has limited to Watson to under 20 fantasy points in back-to-back games. Even with the so-so history, Watson is an upside QB1. … Carlos Hyde had 26 carries last week and continues to make Duke Johnson a complete afterthought. Hyde has at least 10 carries in every game and is tied for eighth in inside-the-five rushing touchdowns. The Colts’ defense is in the bottom 15th percentile in run defense DVOA, so Hyde is low-end RB2, while Johnson is mainly a handcuff.
DeAndre Hopkins is in a slump (58 YPG and 0 touchdowns in the last five games), but he’s a buy-low candidate given his usage and talent. Hopkins’ 56 targets are tied for fifth in the NFL and he’s still top-10 in total air yards despite a lower aDOT than normal. As you can see below, Watson has attacked the Colts’ defense underneath more so than normal, which sets up for Hopkins more than Will Fuller. Nuk is still a top-shelf WR1. … Will Fuller is extremely inconsistent. His hands are still an issue, but his usage is far from one. Fuller is second in air yards and is averaging 8.0 targets per contest. The matchup given Watson’s history against Indy lowers Fuller’s outlook, but he’s seeing too many good looks to drop too far. Fuller is a boom-or-bust WR2/3. … The emergence of tight ends Jordan Akins and Darren Fells have limited receivers Keke Coutee and Kenny Stills. Coutee has only averaged 5.0 targets in the two games without Stills, who returned to practice this week. Stills is the preferred play over Coutee, but neither are attractive options with everyone healthy. … Cannibalism is setting in for Akins and Fells, who have traded decent games in recent weeks. Overall, both of their usages aren’t bankable enough to be counted on as boom-or-bust TE2s, even against the Colts’ bottom 10th percentile defense against fantasy tight ends.
17. Lions (22, +1) vs. MIN
Matthew Stafford has been owned by the Vikings recently. In his last four games, Stafford has 14, 11, 7, and 5 fantasy points. On top of the efficiency concerns, Stafford has to worry about play volume with both teams in favor of running the ball. Vegas agrees with the Lions’ 22-point team total. Stafford is a forgettable QB2. … Kerryon Johnson’s matchup is difficult -- look at the RB FPPG and run efficiency bars above -- but Johnson is seeing strong usage post-C.J. Anderson. In the last three games, Johnson is averaging 19.7 carries along with a few targets per game. Johnson is on the RB1/2 borderline based on projected volume.
Kenny Golladay has WR1/2 usage through five games, but given Stafford’s struggles against Minnesota and the run-heavy nature of this game, the Lions’ No. 1 receiver needs to be downgraded. As you can see in my Tweet below, Minnesota is allowing almost zero completions more than 20 yards downfield, which hurts Golladay and his 13.4 average depth of target average (that’s much deeper than average if you are unfamiliar with aDOT). Golladay is a WR2/3 this week. … Similar things can be said about Marvin Jones, except he’s been seeing WR3 usage this season and isn’t as talented as Golladay in my opinion. Jones is due for some positive touchdown regression (294 yards, 1 TD), but I’ll bet on that adjusting in an easier matchup. Jones is just a flex option. … T.J. Hockenson’s air yards are basically non-existent (see above chart). He’s still a TE2 given the other options, but he’s touchdown-dependent until he’s used more often between the 20s.
18. Titans (21, -2) vs. LAC
Ryan Tannehill is drawing the start over Marcus Mariota. This is a pretty lateral move for all involved; Tannehill’s per-game averages (229 yards, 1.4 TDs, 0.8 INTs) and Mariota’s per-game averages (214 yards, 1.2 TDs, 0.7 INTs). Tannehill will be tasked with game managing and handing the ball off to Derrick Henry. The Chargers Defense is in the bottom third in both passing and rushing DVOA, but these teams are playing so slow, limiting any potential upside. … Derrick Henry is always susceptible to absolute clunkers as a touchdown-dependent RB2, but he has at least 15 carries in all six games and is tied for third in inside-the-five touchdowns (4) this year. Vegas projects positive game script for the Titans this week as 2-point favorites, and the Chargers run defense is 23rd in PFF’s team run defense grade. Henry has some touchdown upside as a high-end RB2 in Week 7.
Like I mentioned above, the quarterback change shouldn’t make a difference for A.J. Brown, Corey Davis, Adam Humphries, or Delanie Walker. All of the receivers are just WR5s based on early-season usage. If forced to choose a receiver, I’d take Brown, who has averaged 11.9 yards per target as a rookie. I’m very bullish on Brown the NFL player (see Tweet below). Less bullish on Brown the fantasy asset. … Delanie Walker is ninth in tight end targets. He’s right in the middle of the TE1/2 borderline group of tight ends. There’s nothing about this matchup against the Bolts that changes his outlook.