Teams are listed in order of their implied points.
Page 1: LAR, BUF, SEA, GB, NYG, DAL, NE, ATL, SF
Page 2: IND, BAL, JAX, ARI, PHI, MIN, HOU, DEN, DET
Page 3: TEN, CHI, CIN, OAK, LAC, NO, NYJ, WAS, MIA
TNF: KC, DEN
Byes: CAR, CLE, PIT, TB
19. Bears (21, -3.5) vs. NO
Mitchell Trubisky has practiced in full and is expected to start. Before his shoulder injury, Trubisky was straight up one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL (5.5 YPA). Outside of a few random huge fantasy lines last year, Trubisky has been useless in fantasy. The Saints’ defense has been vastly improved in recent weeks (we can ignore that low QB FPPG ranking for New Orleans now), getting pressure on opposing quarterbacks at a top 20th percentile rate. Trubisky is a low-floor QB2/3. … David Montgomery is only averaging 3.3 yards per carry behind the Bears’ 30th graded run-blocking line (PFF), but he’s seeing startable volume (18, 13, 21, and 11 carries) over the last four games. This week’s matchup against the Saints’ top 15th percentile defense against fantasy running backs is not an easy one, and Vegas projects the Bears to only score 21 points. Montgomery is a more of an RB3 than RB2.
Allen Robinson has WR2/3 usage, but he was more effective with Chase Daniel as his quarterback. Still, Robinson is talented enough to overcome bad quarterback play to some extent. His other issue is Marshon Lattimore, who has held Mike Evans, Amari Cooper, and D.J. Chark to just 97 scoreless yards in the last three weeks. I’m downgrading A-Rob to the WR3/4 range this week. … Taylor Gabriel is expected to play, but he’s too low-volume to be counted on despite that random three-touchdown game. Gabriel’s return is obviously terrible news for Tarik Cohen, Anthony Miller, and Javon Wims. … Trey Burton has 11 receptions and zero touchdowns in four games.
20. Bengals (20.25, +3) vs. JAX
The Bengals Offense is broken. They lost another offensive lineman last week, and Dalton is still without A.J. Green and John Ross. It’s tough for Dalton to reach a ceiling with these teammates, as highlighted by his three passing touchdowns in the last four games. Dalton is, at best, a low-end QB2. … Joe Mixon is averaging just 42.0 rushing yards and 2.3 receptions per game, and he’s still without a rushing touchdown. The Bengals can’t run the ball behind their 22nd-ranked run-blocking line (PFF) and Mixon’s fantasy outlook is poor because of it. This week, however, should be a decent game against the worst run defense DVOA. Mixon is a low-end RB2.
Tyler Boyd was shut down by Ravens CB Marlon Humphrey last week, but that was an outlier game amongst a streak of consistent performances. Boyd still has WR2 usage given the A.J. Green and John Ross injuries. His matchup against the Jalen Ramsey-less Jaguars is favorable, and I’m projecting a bounceback game. … Auden Tate was the focal point of the offense last week. Dalton was forcing 50/50 throws to Tate along the sideline to moderate success. I’m expecting those targets and air yards to regress back to his previous totals (see above chart), making Tate a bye-week flex option. … Tyler Eifert has fewer than 30 yards in each game and is in the middle of trade talks. He’s not an option.
21. Raiders (20, +6.5) @ GB
Through five weeks, Derek Carr is without a 260+ yard game and is only averaging 1.2 touchdowns. The Raiders want to run the ball when they can, and that’s exactly what the offensive game plan should be in Green Bay given the Packers’ run funnel defense (see above chart). Carr is a QB2/3. … Josh Jacobs is game-script dependent. As shown by the chart in the link, Jacobs sees approximately 25% of the Raiders’ touches when the Raiders are trailing. Coach Jon Gruden has opted to limit Jacobs’ receiving work (6 receptions in 5 games), so he’s a boom-or-bust RB2. Hopefully the Raiders can keep this one close, but Vegas has the Raiders as 6.5-point dogs.
Tyrell Williams is very questionable with a plantar fascia problem in his foot. If he’s active, Williams carries injury risk on top of his difficult road matchup against the Packers’ boundary corners Kevin King (potential shadow) and Jaire Alexander. Williams is a WR4 in the event he gets cleared in time. … Trevor Davis and slow/old rookie Hunter Renfrow are the next options at receiver for Carr. Both are uninspiring dart throws if Williams is out. … Darren Waller is the pass-catcher to buy even more of if Williams’ injury lingers. Waller has at least seven targets in 4-of-5 games with the only clunker occurring when the Raiders jumped to a big early lead in London. Waller’s TE1 usage and TE1 talent make him a no-brainer top-eight option every-week.
22. Chargers (19, +2) @ TEN
PFF has the Bolts as the No. 26 pass-blocking team through six weeks and that will likely get worse with Pro Bowl C Mike Pouncey on injured reserve. Since Pouncey’s been gone, the Chargers have scored 13 and 17 points in “home” games. The good news for Philip Rivers is his top-five pass attempt ranking (39.6 per game), but he’ll now have to figure out how to right the ship against the Titans, who are in the top 25th percentile against fantasy quarterbacks. Rivers is a QB2. … With the Chargers trailing in both games since he’s been active, we haven’t seen what a normal game looks like for Melvin Gordon. He’s averaging 10 carries and 3.5 receptions, but I can confidently project MGIII for more carries whenever the Chargers are in close games. And it was a good sign for Melvin owners that he still out-snapped Austin Ekeler, 37-28, in Week 6 when the Chargers were losing. Gordon is looking like the better back to own moving forward as an upside RB2, while Ekeler is a RB3 after only seeing five carries and four targets last week.
When I build these air yards charts every week, there are a few pass-catchers whose usage jumps off the page. Mike Williams’ usage certainly qualifies. His air yards and targets have been elite in three-straight healthy games. Despite the usage, Williams has managed zero 75-yard games and zero touchdowns in 2019 while playing through multiple injuries, including a scary back injury. Williams has upside given his usage and talent (when healthy) as a higher-end WR3. … Keenan Allen’s usage has gone in the opposite direction, partially because of individual matchup and partially because of randomness. Allen’s projected usage is somewhere between Weeks 1-3 and Weeks 4-6 (see above chart), making Keenan a fringe WR1/2 every week now that Hunter Henry and Melvin Gordon will steal some usage away from him. … Hunter Henry returned from injury to see elite TE1 usage (9 targets) last week. His target total will come down with the Chargers unlikely to pass 44 times as they did against Pittsburgh in Week 6, but Henry is squarely in the top-eight at the position moving forward. The Titans are in the bottom 25th percentile against fantasy tight ends as a bonus.
23. Saints (17.5, +3.5) @ CHI
Teddy Bridgewater is only averaging 231 yards and 1.8 touchdowns in starts with the Saints playing keep away on offense. He’s barely a streamer in decent matchups and is an easy fade against the Bears who are in the top 15th percentile against fantasy quarterbacks. … Alvin Kamara was clearly limited by his ankle injury last week, which led to season-highs in carries (8) and receptions (3) for Latavius Murray and a season-low 11 carries for Kamara. If Kamara proves he’s healthier with a full participation in practice Friday, I’d be more confident calling him an RB1 this week. If he’s still limited, I’ll be knocking him down to the upside RB2 range with volume and efficiency as concerns.
Michael Thomas is second in targets as the focal point of the offense, especially with Alvin Kamara (ankle) banged up. Thomas deserves the WR1 label based on volume, but this isn’t a matchup to expect a ceiling with the Bears' defense almost exclusively funnels receptions within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage (see my Tweet below). … Ted Ginn remains a zero-floor deep threat attached to a quarterback with below-average arm strength. … Jared Cook has TE1/2 usage and Chicago isn’t a matchup to expect different results.
24. Jets (16.25, +10) vs. NE
Sam Darnold looked like a franchise quarterback last week in the Jets upset win over Dallas. Darnold nearly set a new career-high in passing yards (338) and had chemistry with all three of his receivers. The Patriots Defense is leading in just about every defensive statistic right now, however, making Darnold a low-end QB2 despite the positive game in his return from mono. … Le’Veon Bell is averaging 17.0 carries and 5.6 receptions per game as one of the most-utilized backs in all of fantasy. If Darnold can play as well as he did in Week 6, Bell has some serious upside. But that will likely have to be put on hold with New England in town. Bell is a volume-based RB1, who likely won’t hit a ceiling this time around.
The Patriots have allowed the third-fewest fantasy points per game to receivers with Stephon Gilmore shutting down opposing ones and with the scheme limiting the rest of the pass-catchers. Robby Anderson will catch a lot of Gilmore, which makes him a zero-floor WR4 this week despite a huge Week 6 game. … I actually like Jamison Crowder more than Anderson this season. Crowder has actual chemistry with Darnold and won’t have to deal with Gilmore this week. The Patriots have almost exclusively prevented passes beyond 10ish yards this season (see Tweet below). He’s a WR4.
25. Redskins (15.75, +9.5) vs. SF
Update: Chris Thompson is out.
Case Keenum mustered up just 166 yards and two touchdowns against the Dolphins last week with coach Brian Callahan running the ball more times than passing it. If that offensive approach continues, it will be very hard for Keenum to reach a ceiling high enough to start in fantasy, especially when facing the 49ers. Vegas projects Washington to score just 15.75 points. … Adrian Peterson will benefit greatly from the coaching change, as evidenced by his season-high 23 carries and 118 rushing yards last week. AP might see upwards of 15-20 carries regardless of the scoreboard under Callahan, but the 49ers are the best team defense against fantasy running backs this year. Peterson is a risky flex option in a very difficult matchup. AP’s outlook is slightly improved if Chris Thompson is out with his turf toe injury.
Terry McLaurin has strong WR2 usage in every game he’s played (see above chart), but he needs to be downgraded this week with the Niners’ No. 1 ranked pass DVOA defense coming to Washington. As evidenced by the 15.75 team total, the Redskins are very likely to struggle to pass, making McLaurin more of a WR3 than WR2. … Trey Quinn, Paul Richardson, and the tight ends aren’t seeing enough volume to be considered in this matchup.