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Fantasy Usage Model

Fantasy Usage Model Notes: Jeudy Pops Week 10

by Hayden Winks
Updated On: November 18, 2020, 1:01 am ET

“The Fantasy Usage Model” simply is how many PPR fantasy points an average NFL player in an average NFL offense would’ve scored with the same exact opportunity. Read Targets Aren’t Created Equal and Carries Aren’t Created Equal if you want to see the type of variables that go into this model, but think air yards, relation to the sideline, yards from the end zone, and scheme indicator metrics. It’s a “Buy Low Model” (shoutout to the great Josh Hermsmeyer). To make things better, I manually clean the data each week with things I can adjust for that a computer wouldn’t know about (i.e. removing early-injury games) because the data is only as good as the context that comes with it. If you have questions, reach out to me on Twitter (@HaydenWinks)

 


Top 5 Rebound Candidates of Week 11

1. DeVante Parker (@ DEN)

2. Michael Thomas (vs. ATL)

3. Jerry Jeudy (vs. MIA)

4. Miles Sanders (@ CLE)

5. Cooper Kupp (@ TB)

 


Fantasy Usage Model - WRs

Average expected PPR points and PPR data from the last four weeks. I’ve removed injuries and noted other adjustments.

Player Fantasy Usage PPR Per Game Context
Davante Adams WR1 (24.3) WR1 (32.2) Instincts + Prep + Chemistry are unmatched.
Tyreek Hill WR2 (21.0) WR2 (25.5) xFPs: With Sammy (13.3), w/o (16.0). Outlier.
Brandon Aiyuk WR3 (19.8) WR5 (20.1) 31% target share, 5th in targets P/G in last 4.
Tyler Boyd WR4 (19.3) WR10 (18.9) 14.5 xFPs in 6 of 9 weeks. PPR WR2.
Tyler Lockett WR5 (18.6) WR6 (20.0) Insane volatility but WR1 production on avg.
JuJu Smith-Schuster WR6 (17.8) WR11 (18.8) 14.3 xFPs in 6 games since bye. WR2/3.
Cooper Kupp WR7 (17.8) WR28 (14.6) Inconsistent WR2 usage with injuries.
Keenan Allen WR8 (16.5) WR4 (20.6) Season-low 12.4 xFPs in rare average game.
Stefon Diggs WR9 (16.1) WR14 (18.0) At least 10.8 PPR points in all 10 games.
Diontae Johnson WR10 (16.1) WR19 (17.1) 16.1 xFPs in 4 healthy games since bye.
Terry McLaurin WR11 (16.1) WR3 (21.9) At least 10.9 xFPs in all games. WR1/2.
Calvin Ridley WR12 (15.8) WR15 (17.9) Removed Weeks 8-10. Upside WR1/2.
Chase Claypool WR13 (15.5) WR41 (12.8) 16.1 xFPs in 6 games since bye. Baller. WR2.
Jakobi Meyers WR14 (15.3) WR23 (15.7) WR2/3 usage since bye. Plays like a starter.
Julio Jones WR15 (15.1) WR12 (18.3) 16.8 xFPs per game in 5 healthy games. WR1.
Jerry Jeudy WR16 (15.1) WR40 (12.9) Moving to outside WR has helped a lot. WR3.
Richie James WR17 (14.9) WR7 (19.5) 42-of-45 routes as 2-WR set starter. WR5.
Josh Reynolds WR18 (14.8) WR34 (13.7) At least 11.0 xFPs in last 4 games. WR3/4.
DK Metcalf WR19 (14.7) WR13 (18.3) Efficiency outlier on WR2 usage. Rebound.
Mike Evans WR20 (14.6) WR39 (13.1) Season-high 26.2 xFPs Week 10.
Anthony Miller WR21 (14.1) WR67 (9.0) 20% target share in last 4 but Foles.... WR5.
DeAndre Hopkins WR22 (14.1) WR8 (19.3) Inconsistent WR1/2 usage but a WR1 still.
Brandin Cooks WR23 (14.0) WR37 (13.4) 15.6 xFPs since BOB firing. Upside WR2/3.
Michael Pittman WR24 (13.9) WR29 (14.4) IND's best WR. 38-of-40 routes Week 10.
Robby Anderson WR25 (13.9) WR47 (11.2)  
Christian Kirk WR26 (13.9) WR20 (16.9) 11.5 xFPs since injury. Volatile deep threat.
Sterling Shepard WR27 (13.6) WR33 (13.9) Led NYG WRs in xFPs in 3-of-4 games. Flex.
Tee Higgins WR28 (13.3) WR9 (19.2) CIN's best WR. Emerging WR2/3 usage.
Travis Fulgham WR29 (13.2) WR46 (11.3) 11.8 & 8.1 xFPs in two games with Reagor.
Curtis Samuel WR30 (12.9) WR16 (17.5)  
Jarvis Landry WR31 (12.7) WR73 (8.5) 25% targets Week 10. Wind + hip slowing him.
Michael Thomas WR32 (12.7) WR86 (7.4) Betting against WR1 usage with more comp.
Marvin Jones WR33 (12.4) WR18 (17.2) xFPs: With Golladay (7.2), without (12.5).
A.J. Green WR34 (12.2) WR95 (6.4) Wk 10 routes: AJG (35), Tate (11). Should flip.
John Brown WR35 (12.2) WR45 (11.4) Usage has been tied to health (ankle, knee).
Corey Davis WR36 (12.1) WR36 (13.5) 2 good, 2 bad games in last 4. Volatile WR4/5.
Tim Patrick WR37 (12.1) WR53 (10.1) 11.5 xFPs in 6 games with Lock. WR5.
Robert Woods WR38 (12.0) WR27 (14.8) Iffy ceiling but at least 9.0 xFPs in all 9 games.
D.J. Chark WR39 (12.0) WR35 (13.6) Inconsistent usage and production. WR3.
Darnell Mooney WR40 (12.0) WR64 (9.1) Season-low 2.6 xFPs Week 10. Bad fit. WR5.
Deebo Samuel WR41 (11.8) WR42 (12.2) 12.5, 10.0, & 11.8 xFPs in 3 healthy games.
Chris Godwin WR42 (11.7) WR25 (15.4) 9.5 & 9.7 xFPs since returning. WR3.
Kenny Golladay WR43 (11.5) WR17 (17.4) Between 11.2 & 15.2 xFPs in 4 healthy games.
A.J. Brown WR44 (11.5) WR22 (15.7) Efficiency outlier on WR3/4 usage. WR2.
Cole Beasley WR45 (11.4) WR26 (15.4) Season-high 20.3 xFPs in Week 10. Brown?
KJ Hamler WR46 (11.2) WR56 (9.9) Ran a route on 47-of-52 dropbacks. Slot WR6.
Michael Gallup WR47 (11.2) WR91 (6.6) WR4 usage since Dak's injury. Deep threat.
Allen Robinson WR48 (11.2) WR30 (14.3) Frustrating 19% target share in last 4. WR2.
Jalen Reagor WR49 (11.0) WR51 (10.5) 39-of-43 routes Week 10. Upside WR5.
Willie Snead WR50 (10.9) WR24 (15.6) xFPs since bye: Snead (10.9), Brown (8.8).
Antonio Brown WR51 (10.8) WR58 (9.9) 7.8 & 13.9 xFPs since returning. WR3.
Mike Williams WR52 (10.8) WR52 (10.3) Upside tied to LAC's neutral pass rate. WR3.
Randall Cobb WR53 (10.7) WR57 (9.9) Only 1 game above 11.0 xFPs. Slot WR6.
Will Fuller WR54 (10.6) WR31 (14.1) Efficiency outlier on WR3/4 usage. WR2/3.
Larry Fitzgerald WR55 (10.6) WR68 (9.0) Zero games above 12.0 xFPs. Needs TDs.
DeSean Jackson WR56 (10.4) WR84 (7.6)  
Denzel Mims WR57 (10.4) WR78 (8.2) 28-of-28 routes Week 9. Upside WR5.
CeeDee Lamb WR58 (10.3) WR72 (8.6) xFPs: Weeks 1-5 (14.7), Weeks 7-9 (10.3).
Zach Pascal WR59 (10.3) WR75 (8.4) 32-of-40 routes as slot man in 3-WR sets.
DeVante Parker WR60 (10.3) WR77 (8.3) 28% target share Wk 10. Tua passes eye test.
Adam Thielen WR61 (10.1) WR49 (10.6) Efficient but at expense of MIN run game.
Justin Jefferson WR62 (9.6) WR43 (12.2) Elite efficiency but boom-bust box scores.
Greg Ward WR63 (9.4) WR62 (9.4) Only plays in 3-WR sets as slot man.
Chris Conley WR64 (9.1) WR54 (10.1) 12.7 & 10.0 xFPs in two games without Viska.
Amari Cooper WR65 (8.9) WR59 (9.8) xFPs: Weeks 1-5 (17.9), Weeks 7-9 (8.9).
Braxton Berrios WR66 (8.9) WR88 (7.1)  
Marquise Brown WR67 (8.8) WR101 (5.8) Under 11.5 xFPs in 7-of-9 games. WR5.
D.J. Moore WR68 (8.5) WR32 (14.1) Under 11.0 xFPs in 7 of last 8 games. Flex.
Nelson Agholor WR69 (8.5) WR63 (9.3) Only 1 game above 8.5 xFPs.
Russell Gage WR70 (8.5) WR96 (6.3) Below-average player on bad usage.
Kendrick Bourne WR71 (8.3) WR85 (7.6) 32-of-45 routes Week 10 as No. 3 WR.
Danny Amendola WR72 (8.3) WR65 (9.1) Only 1 game above 11.0 xFPs all year.
Breshad Perriman WR73 (8.3) WR21 (15.9) 28-of-28 routes Week 9. Needs big plays.
Darius Slayton WR74 (8.1) WR81 (7.8) xFPs: With Shepard (8.1), without (12.9).
T.Y. Hilton WR75 (7.9) WR80 (8.0) 1 game above 10.0 PPR points. Pittman time.
Scotty Miller WR76 (7.8) WR76 (8.4)  
Mecole Hardman WR77 (7.8) WR38 (13.1) 35-of-51 routes Week 9. Sammy returning?
Isaiah Wright WR78 (7.7) WR69 (9.0) Started in slot in Week 10.
David Moore WR79 (7.5) WR48 (11.1) Rare WR insurance to top-2 SEA receivers.
Jakeem Grant WR80 (7.4) WR79 (8.1) Season-high 10.2 xFPs, 21-of-27 routes Wk 10.
DaeSean Hamilton WR81 (7.2) WR60 (9.8)  
Cordarrelle Patterson WR82 (7.1) WR103 (5.4) Season-high 11.3 xFPs Week 10 + kick return.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling WR83 (6.9) WR44 (12.1) Has hit as low-volume deep threat. Lazard?
Marvin Hall WR84 (6.7) WR71 (8.8) 2-WR set starter without Golladay.
Marquez Callaway WR85 (6.5) WR98 (6.2)  
Emmanuel Sanders WR86 (6.4) WR83 (7.7) Iffy usage but Jameis is an upgrade for him.
Marcus Johnson WR87 (6.4) WR116 (3.1)  
Jalen Guyton WR88 (6.3) WR93 (6.5)  
Golden Tate WR89 (6.3) WR61 (9.5)  
Rashard Higgins WR90 (6.3) WR66 (9.1) Zero games above 10.0 xFPs despite starting.
Deonte Harris WR91 (6.1) WR82 (7.7)  
Tre'Quan Smith WR92 (6.0) WR89 (6.8)  
Gabriel Davis WR93 (6.0) WR105 (4.8) 7.1, 16.3, & 5.0 xFPs in games without Brown.
Henry Ruggs WR94 (6.0) WR107 (4.1) Zero games above 9.0 xFPs. I'll fight you, Gruden.
Damiere Byrd WR95 (5.9) WR104 (5.3)  
Hunter Renfrow WR96 (5.9) WR74 (8.5)  
Keelan Cole WR97 (5.9) WR94 (6.5) Slot WR6 with inconsistent usage.
Auden Tate WR98 (5.7) WR100 (6.0)  
Demarcus Robinson WR99 (5.6) WR55 (10.0) 42-of-51 routes Week 9. Sammy returning?
Cam Sims WR100 (5.3) WR70 (8.9)  

 

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Fantasy Usage Model - TEs

Average expected PPR points and PPR data from the last four weeks. I’ve removed injuries and noted other adjustments.

Player Fantasy Usage PPR Per Game Context
Travis Kelce TE1 (14.9) TE1 (19.0) 7th all time in PPR thru 9 games at TE.
Darren Waller TE2 (14.1) TE5 (11.2) At least 8.9 xFPs in all games. Bad efficiency.
Evan Engram TE3 (13.8) TE8 (10.6) Shaky results on inconsistent TE1 usage.
T.J. Hockenson TE4 (12.6) TE2 (12.2) Season-low 22 routes Week 10 (toe).
Hayden Hurst TE5 (11.3) TE3 (12.1) xFPs: With JJ & CR (7.4), with one (10.8).
Mark Andrews TE6 (11.1) TE14 (8.2) No Nick Boyle (knee). Inconsistent TE1.
Eric Ebron TE7 (10.8) TE7 (10.7) At least 7.4 xFPs in 8-of-9 games. TE1/2.
Rob Gronkowski TE8 (10.8) TE4 (11.4) 10.4 & 6.9 xFPs in 2 games with big 3 WRs.
Noah Fant TE9 (10.2) TE17 (7.7) TE1 usage with a ceiling if ankle/QB cooperates.
Hunter Henry TE10 (9.8) TE13 (8.2) Steady TE1 usage in fantasy TE wasteland.
Dalton Schultz TE11 (9.7) TE16 (8.1) High-end TE2 usage in suspect offense.
Jimmy Graham TE12 (9.3) TE18 (7.2) Tied to TDs in awful offense but TE1/2 usage.
Logan Thomas TE13 (8.7) TE6 (10.8) 62-of-63 routes Week 10. TE1/2 usage.
Gerald Everett TE14 (8.4) TE11 (8.6) Week 10 routes: Higbee (21), Everett (18).
Trey Burton TE15 (8.0) TE28 (5.7) Week 10 routes: Burton (19), Alie-Cox (24).
Jonnu Smith TE16 (8.0) TE19 (6.9) 9.2 xFPs in 5 healthy games with AJB. TE1/2.
Jared Cook TE17 (7.9) TE12 (8.3) TD-dependent TE2 in functional offense.
Troy Fumagalli TE18 (7.5) TE45 (3.2)  
Tyler Higbee TE19 (7.3) TE25 (6.2) TE1 upside if Everett were to miss. TE2/3 now.
Tyler Eifert TE20 (7.0) TE26 (6.2) Past his prime TE with backup QB.
Greg Olsen TE21 (6.8) TE47 (3.1) 35-of-53 routes Week 10. TD-needy TE3.
Richard Rodgers TE22 (6.7) TE15 (8.2) Only 11-of-43 routes Week 10.
Jacob Hollister TE23 (6.1) TE34 (4.9) Only played in major blowout.
Mo Alie-Cox TE24 (6.1) TE23 (6.3) Week 10 routes: Burton (19), Alie-Cox (24).
Irv Smith TE25 (5.9) TE10 (8.8) Removed Week 10. Low-end TE2 usage.
Jordan Reed TE26 (5.8) TE24 (6.3) 8.6 xFPs on 25-of-45 Week 10 routes. TE1/2.
Mike Gesicki TE27 (5.7) TE30 (5.0) 3.0, 6.0, & 8.0 xFPs since bye. Upside TE2.
Dallas Goedert TE28 (5.5) TE31 (4.9) 36-of-43 routes Week 10. TE1 upside.
Ross Dwelley TE29 (5.4) TE20 (6.7)  
Anthony Firkser TE30 (5.4) TE40 (3.7)  
Jordan Akins TE31 (5.3) TE51 (2.7)  
Kyle Rudolph TE32 (5.2) TE21 (6.5) Season-high 8.5 xFPs in game w/o Irv.
Harrison Bryant TE33 (5.1) TE9 (9.0)  
Robert Tonyan TE34 (5.1) TE22 (6.5) 5.2 xFPs in 5 games since Adams returned.
Drew Sample TE35 (4.7) TE37 (4.0)  

 


Fantasy Usage Model - RBs

Average expected PPR points and PPR data from the last four weeks. I’ve removed injuries and noted other adjustments.

Player Fantasy Usage PPR Per Game Context
Christian McCaffrey RB1 (28.0) RB1 (36.8) Could be held out through Week 13 bye.
Alvin Kamara RB2 (23.2) RB3 (24.7) At least 18.8 xFPs in all games.
Dalvin Cook RB3 (22.8) RB2 (34.3) Vikings establishing it harder than anyone.
Kalen Ballage RB4 (20.3) RB11 (15.8) Awful efficiency but 16.6 & 23.9 xFPs in last 2.
J.D. McKissic RB5 (20.0) RB19 (14.1) 28% target share in all games with QB Smith.
James Robinson RB6 (19.7) RB4 (19.6) RB1 usage/production. RB Thompson to IR?
Giovani Bernard RB7 (18.8) RB8 (17.4) xFPs: With Mixon (7.0), without (18.8).
Salvon Ahmed RB8 (18.6) RB9 (16.0) 18.6 xFPs in Gaskin-like bellcow role Week 10.
Todd Gurley RB9 (18.1) RB13 (15.4) At least 13.4 xFPs in all games. Steady RB2.
Jamaal Williams RB10 (17.8) RB14 (15.4) 9.4 xFPs with Jones. Desperate RB3.
David Montgomery RB11 (17.7) RB34 (10.5) Removed Wk 10. CHI's best RB is CPatt.
Josh Jacobs RB12 (16.7) RB12 (15.6) Carries per game: In wins (23.5), losses (13.7).
Kareem Hunt RB13 (16.2) RB15 (14.9) xFPs: With Chubb (15.6), without (14.4). Odd.
Aaron Jones RB14 (15.9) RB21 (13.7) xFPs: With Adams (18.3), without (24.0).
James Conner RB15 (15.3) RB37 (10.0) Bad on RB1/2 usage. PIT passing more.
Leonard Fournette RB16 (14.7) RB35 (10.2) Passing down edge but RoJo running hotter.
D'Andre Swift RB17 (14.7) RB16 (14.7) 15.0+ xFPs in 4-of-5 games since bye. RB2.
Miles Sanders RB18 (14.4) RB26 (11.5) 16.6 xFPs in healthy games. Low-end RB1.
Chase Edmonds RB19 (14.4) RB17 (14.7) 10.5 xFPs per game with Drake. PPR RB3.
Antonio Gibson RB20 (14.4) RB6 (18.6) Only 18-of-63 routes Week 10. Pure runner.
Wayne Gallman RB21 (13.8) RB10 (15.8) Near bellcow role with goal line in bad O.
Derrick Henry RB22 (13.7) RB23 (12.8) xFPs per game: In wins (20.5), losses (15.4).
Justin Jackson RB23 (13.5) RB20 (13.9) Was the 1A before his injury. Unknown now.
Kenyan Drake RB24 (13.2) RB42 (8.5) Saw both Week 10 inside-10 touches. RB2.
Ronald Jones RB25 (13.1) RB24 (12.7) Needs leads & to stop fumbling. RB2/3 now.
Ezekiel Elliott RB26 (12.8) RB45 (7.8) xFPs: Weeks 1-5 (24.2), Weeks 7-9 (12.8).
DeeJay Dallas RB27 (12.8) RB29 (11.2) Played behind Alex Collins in Week 10.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire RB28 (12.5) RB33 (10.6) xFPs: With Bell (12.5), without (20.3). Video.
Nyheim Hines RB29 (12.4) RB7 (18.5) Passing down back + hot hand potential.
Duke Johnson RB30 (12.3) RB32 (10.6) Only 9.4 xFPs Week 10 despite 54-of-57 snaps.
Gus Edwards RB31 (12.2) RB27 (11.5) Week 10 snaps: JK (29), Ingram (17), Gus (15).
Nick Chubb RB32 (11.3) RB5 (18.6) Outlier on RB2 usage. Early-down role only.
Jonathan Taylor RB33 (11.2) RB46 (7.4) Feet of: Montgomery, Vision of: Montgomery...
Jerick McKinnon RB34 (11.2) RB39 (8.8) 15.3 & 17.5 xFPs in last 2. Mostert back?
Boston Scott RB35 (11.1) RB18 (14.2)  
Melvin Gordon RB36 (10.9) RB40 (8.8) 10.9 xFPs in 4 games since Lindsay returned.
Mike Davis RB37 (10.6) RB41 (8.6) xFPs: Weeks 3-6 (24.5), Weeks 7-10 (10.6).
Darrell Henderson RB38 (10.5) RB36 (10.0) Week 10 snaps: MB (29), DH (23), Akers (18).
Jordan Wilkins RB39 (10.4) RB38 (9.0) Hot hand potential as boom-bust RB3.
Devin Singletary RB40 (9.7) RB50 (6.3) 9.3 xFPs in 5 games since Moss returned.
Rex Burkhead RB41 (9.6) RB25 (12.5) Week 10 routes: Rex (9), White (5), Harris (2).
J.K. Dobbins RB42 (9.6) RB47 (7.0) Week 10 routes: JK (20), Ingram (9), Gus (6).
Zack Moss RB43 (9.2) RB28 (11.5) RB3/4 that can only be saved by TDs.
Damien Harris RB44 (8.8) RB30 (10.9) All 22 touches on early downs. TD-needy RB3.
Joshua Kelley RB45 (8.7) RB48 (6.7) Only 17-of-63 snaps in Week 10. Not good.
Malcolm Brown RB46 (8.5) RB22 (12.8) Passing down back with some GL work. RB3.
Latavius Murray RB47 (8.2) RB52 (6.2)  
Lamical Perine RB48 (7.9) RB43 (8.2) Bigger role expected post-bye. RB3 for now.
Adrian Peterson RB49 (7.8) RB66 (4.4) Season-low 7 snaps in Week 10.
Tony Pollard RB50 (7.2) RB54 (6.1)  
Samaje Perine RB51 (7.1) RB51 (6.2)  
JaMycal Hasty RB52 (7.1) RB53 (6.2)  
Tyler Ervin RB53 (6.5) RB62 (4.7)  
Brian Hill RB54 (6.5) RB57 (5.6)  
Chris Thompson RB55 (6.0) RB44 (7.8)  
Frank Gore RB56 (5.8) RB56 (5.6)  
Phillip Lindsay RB57 (5.6) RB49 (6.5) Early-down grinder & insurance only.
Le'Veon Bell RB58 (5.5) RB71 (4.0) 4.8, 7.5, & 4.1 xFPs in three games with KC.
Troymaine Pope RB59 (5.3) RB58 (5.0) No snaps in Week 10 following injury.
Alex Collins RB60 (5.3) RB55 (6.1)  
Mark Ingram RB61 (5.2) RB59 (4.9) Under 9.0 xFPs in 5-of-6 healthy games.
Devontae Booker RB62 (5.0) RB31 (10.8)  
James White RB63 (5.0) RB72 (4.0) Week 10 routes: Rex (9), White (5), Harris (2).
Cam Akers RB64 (5.0) RB75 (3.4)  
Alfred Morris RB65 (4.6) RB61 (4.8)  

 


The Fantasy Usage Model: Week 11

Part 1: High Value RB Touches (Sunday Night)

Part 2: Targets Aren’t Created Equal (Monday Night)

Part 3: Air Yards Report (Monday Night)

Part 4: Fantasy Usage Model Notes (Tuesday)

My Twitter: @HaydenWinks