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Fantasy Usage Model

Fantasy Usage Model Notes: Week 10

by Hayden Winks
Updated On: November 11, 2020, 1:31 am ET

“The Fantasy Usage Model” simply is how many PPR fantasy points an average NFL player in an average NFL offense would’ve scored with the same exact opportunity. Read Targets Aren’t Created Equal and Carries Aren’t Created Equal if you want to see the type of variables that go into this model, but think air yards, relation to the sideline, yards from the end zone, and scheme indicator metrics. It’s a “Buy Low Model” (shoutout to the great Josh Hermsmeyer). To make things better, I manually clean the data each week with things I can adjust for that a computer wouldn’t know about (i.e. removing early-injury games) because the data is only as good as the context that comes with it. If you have questions, reach out to me on Twitter (@HaydenWinks)

 


Top 5 Rebound Candidates of Week 10

1. Jarvis Landry vs. HOU

2. Chase Edmonds vs. BUF (if no Kenyan Drake)

3. Josh Jacobs vs. DEN

4.  Leonard Fournette @ CAR

5. Darnell Mooney vs. MIN

 


Fantasy Usage Model - WRs

Average expected PPR points and PPR data from the last four weeks. I’ve removed injuries and noted other adjustments.

Player Fantasy Usage PPR Per Game Context
Richie James WR1 (23.7) WR1 (33.4) Only includes Week 9. Played well. Aiyuk?
Davante Adams WR2 (23.0) WR2 (30.1) The WR1 overall... and it's not close.
Tyler Boyd WR3 (20.2) WR12 (19.9) 23% target share in pass-heavy offense. WR2.
Tyler Lockett WR4 (19.9) WR4 (22.8) Most volatile usage but still a WR1.
Cooper Kupp WR5 (18.4) WR36 (12.8) 29% target share. Needs LAR to pass more.
Terry McLaurin WR6 (18.4) WR11 (20.3) Losing Allen hurts but still an upside WR2.
D.J. Chark WR7 (18.0) WR28 (14.2) 16.1 xFPs in 5 games post injury. WR3.
Keenan Allen WR8 (17.8) WR3 (23.2) 20.7 xFPs in five healthy games with JH.
DK Metcalf WR9 (17.6) WR5 (22.7) More stable usage as upside WR1. Stud.
Tyreek Hill WR10 (16.5) WR10 (20.5) xFPs: With Sammy (13.3), w/o (16.0). WR1/2.
Travis Fulgham WR11 (16.5) WR19 (17.2) WR1/2 usage done with JR, MS, DG back.
Brandin Cooks WR12 (16.2) WR16 (17.4) PPR: With O'Brien (6.0), without (20.6). WR2.
Julio Jones WR13 (16.2) WR7 (22.1) No sign of slowing down. Top-5 WR always.
Jakobi Meyers WR14 (16.0) WR17 (17.3) 8th in targets per game in last 4 weeks.
Diontae Johnson WR15 (15.6) WR27 (14.9) Inconsistent health & play but WR2 usage.
Stefon Diggs WR16 (15.5) WR23 (15.9) 33% target share in last 4 weeks. Upside WR1/2.
Robert Woods WR17 (15.2) WR20 (16.6) 5 to 8 targets + 1 to 2 carries = WR2/3.
Sterling Shepard WR18 (15.2) WR26 (15.0) 16.6, 16.3, & 12.6 xFPs since injury. WR3.
A.J. Green WR19 (15.1) WR41 (12.2) Last in PPR points over expected (-5.5). Flex.
Calvin Ridley WR20 (14.2) WR14 (18.4) WR2 usage with Julio. Upside WR1/2 if healthy.
Jerry Jeudy WR21 (13.9) WR48 (11.5) Led in air yards Week 8 & 2nd in xFPs Week 9.
Curtis Samuel WR22 (13.8) WR8 (21.9) WR5 usage before outlier Week 9. Upside WR4?
Brandon Aiyuk WR23 (13.7) WR21 (16.6) xFPs: With Deebo (9.5), without (14.0).
A.J. Brown WR24 (13.7) WR9 (20.6) Efficiency outlier as WR1/2 on WR3 usage.
Robby Anderson WR25 (13.5) WR39 (12.6) 27% target share in last 4 weeks. WR2 still.
Darnell Mooney WR26 (13.2) WR54 (10.8) WR3 usage doesn't matter if the QB is Foles.
Josh Reynolds WR27 (13.2) WR43 (12.0) Betting on recent usage being an outlier. WR5/6.
JuJu Smith-Schuster WR28 (13.2) WR33 (13.8) Inconsistent usage as low-aDOT slot. WR3/4.
Tim Patrick WR29 (13.2) WR49 (11.5) Lock's deep threat (14.9 aDOT) as big play WR5.
Will Fuller WR30 (13.1) WR13 (19.3) 5th in PPR over expected. Baller. WR2.
Corey Davis WR31 (13.0) WR29 (14.1) Has been a WR5 for 1.5 years with AJB.
Jarvis Landry WR32 (12.7) WR71 (8.9) No OBJ but Hooper/Chubb return. WR3/4.
Tee Higgins WR33 (12.7) WR18 (17.3) Rookie baller on WR3 usage.
Chris Godwin WR34 (12.3) WR34 (13.6) 0 games above 16.0 xFPs. WR3 play now.
Jamison Crowder WR35 (12.1) WR50 (11.2) Arguably rushed back Week 9. Should rebound.
Christian Kirk WR36 (12.0) WR6 (22.2) Big-play threat on volatile WR3 usage.
Kenny Golladay WR37 (12.0) WR22 (16.0) Only 13.2 xFPs in 4 healthy games. WR2/3.
Chase Claypool WR38 (11.9) WR40 (12.4) Best PIT WR but volatile WR3/4 usage.
DeAndre Hopkins WR39 (11.8) WR31 (13.9) Outlier 4.1 xFPs Week 9. Rebound. WR1.
Amari Cooper WR40 (11.7) WR38 (12.6) xFPs: With Dak (17.9), without (8.9). WR3.
Zach Pascal WR41 (11.7) WR52 (11.1) Only played in 3-WR sets. Low-ceiling WR5.
Anthony Miller WR42 (11.7) WR58 (10.2) 18% target share in last 4 weeks. WR5.
Michael Gallup WR43 (11.6) WR101 (6.0) Outside deep threat with backup QBs. WR5.
CeeDee Lamb WR44 (11.5) WR61 (9.8) YAC stud as underneath safety blanket. Flex.
Mike Williams WR45 (11.4) WR46 (11.8) Herbert plays to his strengths. Volatile WR3.
Allen Robinson WR46 (11.2) WR24 (15.3) Total baller but usage down with Foles. WR2.
Deebo Samuel WR47 (10.9) WR25 (15.1) WR4 usage before injury.
D.J. Moore WR48 (10.8) WR37 (12.7) 20% target share in last 4 weeks. Sell. WR3.
Marvin Jones WR49 (10.7) WR44 (12.0) xFPs: With Kenny (7.6), without (11.8).
River Cracraft WR50 (10.6) WR118 (3.3) Obviously not a thing.
Michael Thomas WR51 (10.6) WR59 (10.1) Doubt MT sees WR1 volume with Sanders.
DeSean Jackson WR52 (10.4) WR86 (7.6) Won't have a major role even if he can return.
Denzel Mims WR53 (10.4) WR78 (8.2) Passes the eye test but more of a 2021 asset.
Breshad Perriman WR54 (10.4) WR30 (14.0) 14.5, 3.3, & 13.3 xFPs in 3 games since injury.
Jalen Reagor WR55 (10.3) WR42 (12.2) 10.3 xFPs in 1st game back. Upside WR4.
Justin Jefferson WR56 (10.3) WR15 (17.5) Elite efficiency but WR4/5 usage. Volatile.
John Brown WR57 (10.3) WR91 (7.0) Season-high 22.1 xFPs Week 9 after slow OCT.
Randall Cobb WR58 (9.9) WR53 (11.1) Only one game over 10.0 xFPs.
Marcus Johnson WR59 (9.9) WR77 (8.4) Wk 9 routes: MJ (41 of 47), MP (39), ZP (30).
Marquez Callaway WR60 (9.8) WR67 (9.3) Only ran 6 routes as No. 4 WR Week 9.
Emmanuel Sanders WR61 (9.7) WR32 (13.8) Usage likely to be volatile with MT. WR4/5.
Larry Fitzgerald WR62 (9.5) WR63 (9.6) Please, Kliff.
Cole Beasley WR63 (9.5) WR45 (12.0) Hard to trust if Brown is back to full healthy.
KJ Hamler WR64 (9.4) WR57 (10.2) Perfect script led to outlier usage in Week 9.
DeVante Parker WR65 (9.4) WR73 (8.7) Up-and-down WR4 usage. No Williams?
Nelson Agholor WR66 (9.0) WR47 (11.7) Only one game above 9.0 xFPs. Off radar.
Austin Mack WR67 (8.9) WR51 (11.2) Apparently plays when Golden Tate yells.
Adam Thielen WR68 (8.7) WR75 (8.5) Erased when MIN leads early. Volatile WR2.
Mike Evans WR69 (8.7) WR74 (8.7) 1 game above 15.0 xFPs. WR3 play now.
David Moore WR70 (8.5) WR35 (13.2) QB-based WR5 dart throw on bad usage.
Marquise Brown WR71 (8.4) WR83 (7.9) Sub-10.5 xFPs in 6 of 8 games. Upside WR4.
Scotty Miller WR72 (8.3) WR76 (8.4) Won't be a thing.
Adam Humphries WR73 (8.3) WR55 (10.7) Removed Weeks 8-9.
Kendrick Bourne WR74 (8.1) WR87 (7.5) Shouldn't be playing over Richie James tbh.
Greg Ward WR75 (8.0) WR85 (7.8) Should be the No. 3 WR moving forward.
Danny Amendola WR76 (8.0) WR66 (9.4) xFPs: With Kenny (5.4), without (11.0).
Darius Slayton WR77 (7.9) WR90 (7.1) 5.7, 14.0, & 1.7 xFPs since Shepard returned.
Antonio Brown WR78 (7.8) WR99 (6.1) Week 9 routes: CG (43), ME (40), AB (36).
Braxton Berrios WR79 (7.8) WR100 (6.0) Crowder's direct backup.
Laviska Shenault WR80 (7.7) WR103 (5.8) Removed Week 9. Not enough volume w Chark.
Preston Williams WR81 (7.6) WR62 (9.8) WR5/6 usage before leaving Week 9.
Julian Edelman WR82 (7.6) WR126 (2.6) 5th in PPR points under expected (-2.5 P/G).
Russell Gage WR83 (7.5) WR89 (7.4) Low-ceiling slot WR. Ridley should return.
Damiere Byrd WR84 (7.5) WR92 (7.0) Wind sprint machine.
Willie Snead WR85 (7.4) WR69 (9.2)  
Keelan Cole WR86 (7.3) WR81 (8.0) 8.4 xFPs in 5 games since Chark returned.
Tre'Quan Smith WR87 (7.2) WR70 (9.0) No reason to hold despite Week 9 TD.
Chris Conley WR88 (7.0) WR84 (7.9) Played more Week 9 with Viska's hammy.
Trent Taylor WR89 (7.0) WR117 (3.3)  
Hunter Renfrow WR90 (6.9) WR64 (9.6) xFPs: With Ruggs (5.3), w/o (11.2).
T.Y. Hilton WR91 (6.8) WR131 (2.1) Removed Weeks 8-9. Career-low 6.4 YPT.
Isaiah Wright WR92 (6.7) WR97 (6.3)  
De'Michael Harris WR93 (6.6) WR65 (9.5)  
Marvin Hall WR94 (6.5) WR104 (5.7) Week 9 routes: Hall (37 of 49), Cephus (20).
Demarcus Robinson WR95 (6.4) WR56 (10.5) Off the radar when Watkins returns.
Michael Pittman WR96 (6.4) WR105 (5.6) Led IND WRs in xFPs (11.4) Week 9. WR5/6.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling WR97 (6.3) WR88 (7.4) Deep threat (17.4 aDOT) on WR6+ usage.
Mecole Hardman WR98 (6.3) WR60 (9.9) Off the radar when Watkins returns.
Jakeem Grant WR99 (5.9) WR98 (6.3) Could flirt with WR4 numbers if PW is out.
Henry Ruggs WR100 (5.9) WR115 (3.5) 6.5 xFPs per game in healthy games. Sad!

 

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Fantasy Usage Model - TEs

Average expected PPR points and PPR data from the last four weeks. I’ve removed injuries and noted other adjustments.

Player Fantasy Usage PPR Per Game Context
Darren Waller TE1 (15.6) TE5 (12.7) YPT down from 9.8 to 5.5, but elite usage.
T.J. Hockenson TE2 (15.0) TE2 (13.8) xFPs: Before bye (9.4), after (15.0). Top 5 TE.
Travis Kelce TE3 (14.6) TE1 (20.1) Beating the TE2 overall by 4.8 PPR P/G.
Evan Engram TE4 (13.7) TE10 (10.9) 5.2 YPT (yikes) but seeing TE1 usage now.
Rob Gronkowski TE5 (13.1) TE4 (12.8) Needs TDs to sustain low-end TE1 numbers.
Jimmy Graham TE6 (11.1) TE6 (11.7) More than a meme at this point. TE1/2.
Eric Ebron TE7 (10.3) TE12 (10.0) High-end TE2 usage as red zone threat.
Hayden Hurst TE8 (9.9) TE3 (13.0) xFPs: With both JJ + CR (7.4), with 1 (10.8).
Trey Burton TE9 (9.8) TE8 (11.2) High-end TE2 usage on limited routes.
Noah Fant TE10 (9.6) TE17 (8.7) Explosive on TE1/2 usage. No Albert O now.
Hunter Henry TE11 (9.4) TE26 (6.6) 86% routes, 11.5 xFPs in Week 9. TE1/2.
Jared Cook TE12 (9.4) TE9 (11.1) High-end TE2 usage. TD-dependent.
Dalton Schultz TE13 (9.0) TE20 (8.0) Volume-based TE2 in awful offense.
Austin Hooper TE14 (8.7) TE11 (10.2) 12.6 xFPs per game in last 3 games. TE1.
Gerald Everett TE15 (8.5) TE16 (8.9) Wk 8 routes: Everett (29 of 66), Higbee (24).
Anthony Firkser TE16 (8.2) TE14 (9.6) 5.2 xFPs in seven games with Jonnu.
Logan Thomas TE17 (7.9) TE7 (11.7) Has busted on TE1/2 usage all year. TE2.
Mark Andrews TE18 (7.9) TE34 (5.2) Major TD upside on TE2 usage. Low-end TE1.
Jacob Hollister TE19 (7.6) TE30 (5.9)  
Irv Smith TE20 (7.5) TE15 (9.0) Literally only 9 routes in Week 9. TE2.
Jordan Akins TE21 (7.1) TE42 (3.9) Week 9 routes: Akins (16), Fells (13). TE3.
Greg Olsen TE22 (7.0) TE57 (2.4) Beginning to lose routes to Will Dissly. TE3.
Ross Dwelley TE23 (6.7) TE18 (8.4) Reed has more TE2 upside post-Kittle.
Harrison Bryant TE24 (6.0) TE13 (9.7) Won't be a thing with Hooper back.
Richard Rodgers TE25 (5.9) TE25 (6.9) Won't be a thing with Goedert back.
Tyler Higbee TE26 (5.9) TE28 (6.0) Efficient but who cares if he's not playing.
Darren Fells TE27 (5.7) TE19 (8.4) Week 9 routes: Akins (16), Fells (13). TE3.
Jonnu Smith TE28 (5.7) TE29 (6.0) 7.7 xFPs in 4 healthy games w AJB. TE1/2.
Mo Alie-Cox TE29 (5.6) TE23 (7.0) More routes if Doyle (concussion) misses.
Robert Tonyan TE30 (5.0) TE27 (6.3) xFPs: With Adams (4.0), w/o (9.5). Needs TDs.
David Njoku TE31 (5.0) TE35 (4.9)  
Kyle Rudolph TE32 (5.0) TE31 (5.6)  
Jack Doyle TE33 (4.8) TE22 (7.2) Entered concussion protocol.
Nick Boyle TE34 (4.7) TE24 (7.0)  
Mike Gesicki TE35 (4.6) TE50 (3.0) Only one game above 11.0 xFPs. TE2 sadly.

 


Fantasy Usage Model - RBs

Average expected PPR points and PPR data from the last four weeks. I’ve removed injuries and noted other adjustments.

Player Fantasy Usage PPR Per Game Context
Christian McCaffrey RB1 (28.0) RB2 (36.8) Elite RB1 usage but dealing with injury again.
Dalvin Cook RB2 (23.5) RB1 (43.9) 1st in PPR points over expected. Baller RB1.
Alvin Kamara RB3 (22.9) RB4 (21.3) At least 18.8 xFPs in all 8 games. Best floor.
Joe Mixon RB4 (20.7) RB15 (14.9) 19.2 xFPs per game. RB1 if healthy.
Myles Gaskin RB5 (20.7) RB13 (16.0) Volume cheat code will miss a few more weeks.
David Johnson RB6 (20.2) RB12 (16.2) Removed Wk 9. High-end RB2 usage before.
David Montgomery RB7 (19.9) RB36 (10.2) Last in PPR points over expected (-5.4). Flex.
James Robinson RB8 (19.4) RB5 (20.3) 15.5 xFPs per game with Thompson. RB1/2.
Todd Gurley RB9 (17.4) RB17 (14.0) 13.4+ xFPs in all 9 games. Steady RB2.
Josh Jacobs RB10 (16.9) RB33 (10.9) xFPs per game: In wins (21.8), losses (13.4).
Kalen Ballage RB11 (16.6) RB11 (16.4) Primary runner over Kelley after JJ left early.
Giovani Bernard RB12 (16.5) RB7 (18.4) xFPs P/G: With Mixon (7.0), without (19.7).
Devonta Freeman RB13 (16.0) RB58 (6.7) Had strong RB2 workload before injury. Bad O.
D'Andre Swift RB14 (15.9) RB14 (15.0) xFPs: Before bye (8.9), after (15.9). RB2.
Kenyan Drake RB15 (15.8) RB9 (16.8) Maxes out as a pure-runner RB2 if healthy.
Jamaal Williams RB16 (15.8) RB19 (13.7) Back to RB3 role as Jones' C-O-P back.
Derrick Henry RB17 (15.7) RB6 (19.9) Can he keep up his 365-carry pace?
James Conner RB18 (15.6) RB24 (12.6) Busted Week 9. Needs leads. Volume RB2.
Jeff Wilson RB19 (15.6) RB3 (32.0) Had one outlier game before injury.
DeeJay Dallas RB20 (15.4) RB22 (13.2) 30.8 & 10.8 xFPs in two starts. Carson back?
Ezekiel Elliott RB21 (15.4) RB39 (9.8) xFPs: With Dak (24.2), without (12.8). RB2/3.
Leonard Fournette RB22 (15.2) RB28 (12.0) Clearly the passing down RB. RB2 upside.
Aaron Jones RB23 (14.8) RB20 (13.5) xFPs: With Adams (19.3), w/o (24.0). RB1.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire RB24 (14.8) RB21 (13.2) xFPs per game: With Bell (12.5), w/o (20.5).
Kareem Hunt RB25 (14.4) RB27 (12.1) 3.8 fewer carries per game with Chubb.
Boston Scott RB26 (14.3) RB35 (10.3) RB insurance only with Sanders returning.
Raheem Mostert RB27 (13.9) RB40 (9.6) Super-efficient RB2 when healthy.
J.D. McKissic RB28 (13.8) RB23 (12.9) PPR RB3. Best pass pro RB in WAS by far.
Carlos Hyde RB29 (13.6) RB10 (16.6) RB insurance behind Carson.
Chase Edmonds RB30 (13.6) RB26 (12.4) 96% snaps, 19.8 xFPs in Week 9. Rebound.
Justin Jackson RB31 (13.5) RB18 (13.9) Removed Week 9. Was earning RB2/3 trust.
Darrell Henderson RB32 (13.4) RB42 (9.3) Removed Wk 8. RB2/3 as early-down runner.
Gus Edwards RB33 (13.1) RB29 (11.6) Week 9 inside-10 touches: Gus (5), JK (1).
Antonio Gibson RB34 (12.7) RB16 (14.3) 1 touch on 3rd down all year. Bad pass pro.
Ronald Jones RB35 (12.4) RB25 (12.5) 12.1, 9.1, & 9.4 xFPs in 3 games with LF.
Mike Davis RB36 (12.1) RB38 (9.9) Averaged 19.7 xFPs in 6 starts. CMC hurt?
Jonathan Taylor RB37 (11.7) RB34 (10.7) Handled both inside-10 touches. RB2/3 still.
Duke Johnson RB38 (11.5) RB41 (9.5) 17.5 expected PPR points Week 9 as fill in.
Melvin Gordon RB39 (11.2) RB37 (10.1) xFPs: With Lindsay (11.2), w/o (16.4). RB3.
J.K. Dobbins RB40 (11.1) RB50 (7.8) RB3 usage Week 9 bc Gus saw goal line.
Joshua Kelley RB41 (9.9) RB46 (8.2) Clearly in coach Lynn's dog house. RB3/4.
Latavius Murray RB42 (9.6) RB61 (6.3) Elite insurance RB but just that. RB4.
Adrian Peterson RB43 (9.6) RB59 (6.6) xFPs: Before bye (10.6), after (9.6). RB4.
Devin Singletary RB44 (9.4) RB55 (7.2) Sub-9.0 xFPs in 4 of last 5 games. RB3/4.
Wayne Gallman RB45 (9.2) RB31 (11.1) 14.3, 9.9, & 12.6 xFPs in 3 games with DF.
Jerick McKinnon RB46 (8.6) RB45 (8.6) Built for third-down only role. Mostert?
Nyheim Hines RB47 (8.4) RB30 (11.6) Week 9 snaps: Hines (23), JW (23), JT (21).
Phillip Lindsay RB48 (8.4) RB43 (9.0) Only 2% of touches on 3rd down. RB4.
James White RB49 (8.2) RB56 (7.1) Passing downs only but NE last in passes.
Zack Moss RB50 (8.2) RB32 (11.0) Snaps in last 2: Moss (69), Singletary (59).
Tony Pollard RB51 (8.2) RB63 (6.1) Low-ceiling insurance in awful offense.
Jordan Wilkins RB52 (8.1) RB48 (8.0) Splitting early-down snaps evenly with JT.
Lamical Perine RB53 (8.0) RB51 (7.6) Played behind Gore for whatever reason.
Troymaine Pope RB54 (8.0) RB52 (7.6) Played ahead of Kelley before concussion.
Malcolm Brown RB55 (8.0) RB47 (8.2) TD-dependent RB3/4 as LAR's No. 2 RB.
Miles Sanders RB56 (8.0) RB8 (18.2) 17.0 xFPs in 5 healthy games. Great sched.
JaMycal Hasty RB57 (7.4) RB60 (6.4) Early-down UDFA grinder. Needs leads.
Samaje Perine RB58 (7.2) RB64 (6.0)  
Brian Hill RB59 (7.1) RB65 (5.6)  
Rex Burkhead RB60 (7.1) RB54 (7.2)  
Damien Harris RB61 (7.1) RB44 (8.9) Carries near the 50-yard line are nearly worthless.
Frank Gore RB62 (7.0) RB57 (7.0)  
Jordan Howard RB63 (6.9) RB49 (7.9) 6.9 xFPs in Week 9 start. Committee.
Alexander Mattison RB64 (6.6) RB75 (3.9)  
Chris Thompson RB65 (6.6) RB62 (6.2)  
Tyler Ervin RB66 (5.9) RB71 (4.3)  
Le'Veon Bell RB67 (5.5) RB73 (4.0) 4.8, 7.5, & 4.1 xFPs with KC. Insurance only.
Alfred Morris RB68 (4.9) RB67 (5.5)  
Matt Breida RB69 (4.6) RB84 (2.8)  
Kerryon Johnson RB70 (4.4) RB66 (5.5)  

 


The Fantasy Usage Model: Week 10

Part 1: High Value RB Touches (Sunday Night)

Part 2: Targets Aren’t Created Equal (Monday Night)

Part 3: Air Yards Report (Monday Night)

Part 4: Fantasy Usage Model Notes (Tuesday)

My Twitter: @HaydenWinks