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Fantasy Usage Model

Fantasy Usage Model Notes: Week 11 Recap

by Hayden Winks
Updated On: November 25, 2020, 12:47 am ET

“The Fantasy Usage Model” simply is how many PPR fantasy points an average NFL player in an average NFL offense would’ve scored with the same exact opportunity. Read Targets Aren’t Created Equal and Carries Aren’t Created Equal if you want to see the type of variables that go into this model, but think air yards, relation to the sideline, yards from the end zone, and scheme indicator metrics. It’s a “Buy Low Model” (shoutout to the great Josh Hermsmeyer). To make things better, I manually clean the data each week with things I can adjust for that a computer wouldn’t know about (i.e. removing early-injury games) because the data is only as good as the context that comes with it. If you have questions, reach out to me on Twitter (@HaydenWinks)

 


Top 5 Rebound Candidates of Week 12

1. Antonio Brown (vs. KC)

2. Kareem Hunt (@ JAX)

3. Duke Johnson (@ DET)

4. Salvon Ahmed (@ NYJ) if no Myles Gaskin.

5. Russell Gage (vs. LV) if no Julio Jones.

 


Fantasy Usage Model - WRs

Average expected PPR points and PPR data from the last four weeks. I’ve removed injuries and noted other adjustments.

Player Fantasy Usage Actual PPR Context
Tyreek Hill WR1 (24.3) WR1 (28.6) xFPs: With Sammy (13.3), without (18.1).
Brandon Aiyuk WR2 (23.8) WR5 (21.4) xFPs: With Deebo (9.5), without (16.3).
Cooper Kupp WR3 (21.9) WR10 (19.2) 13.7 targets per game in last 4 weeks (1st).
Davante Adams WR4 (20.8) WR2 (27.0) 22.7 xFPs on season is most among WR/RB.
Keenan Allen WR5 (19.2) WR3 (24.1) 19.6 xFPs per game on season (2nd).
Chase Claypool WR6 (18.3) WR14 (16.6) He's even better than you think he is.
Mike Evans WR7 (18.1) WR19 (15.6) 20% target share in last 4. TB passing often.
Robert Woods WR8 (17.4) WR4 (22.5) Rams now 4th in neutral pass rate in last 4.
Jerry Jeudy WR9 (16.9) WR31 (13.6) Leading NFL in air yards over last 4 games.
Tee Higgins WR10 (16.1) WR24 (14.8) WR1/2 usage unlikely to stick w/o Burrow.
Stefon Diggs WR11 (15.9) WR7 (20.4) 103 air yards per game as low-end WR1.
Michael Thomas WR12 (15.9) WR46 (11.4) Rebounded in plus matchup on 52% targets.
Anthony Miller WR13 (15.7) WR55 (10.3) Team-high 22% targets in last 4 weeks. Stop.
Julio Jones WR14 (15.6) WR12 (18.6) Removed Week 11 (hamstring).
Diontae Johnson WR15 (15.1) WR20 (15.6) WR3 overall in per-game usage. WR1/2.
DK Metcalf WR16 (15.1) WR6 (20.6) SEA neutral pass rate has slipped recently.
Richie James WR17 (14.9) WR9 (19.5) Battles Bourne for No. 3 job if Deebo back.
Tyler Boyd WR18 (14.7) WR18 (15.7) WR2 usage unlikely to stick w/o Burrow.
Curtis Samuel WR19 (14.6) WR13 (18.5) 14.0 xFPs in 5 games since injury.
JuJu Smith-Schuster WR20 (14.1) WR17 (15.9) Inconsistent WR2/3 usage from slot.
Josh Reynolds WR21 (14.1) WR53 (10.7) At least 11.0 xFPs in 5 straight. Deep threat.
Jakobi Meyers WR22 (14.0) WR23 (14.9) 4.9 xFPs Week 11 despite 42-of-43 routes.
Robby Anderson WR23 (14.0) WR52 (10.7) Trading big weeks on WR2 usage.
Tim Patrick WR24 (13.9) WR35 (13.3) Every-down deep threat in shaky offense.
Antonio Brown WR25 (13.6) WR49 (11.2) 100 air yards P/G on WR3 usage 3 games in.
Terry McLaurin WR26 (13.4) WR11 (19.0) At least 10.9 xFPs in all games. Upside WR2.
Adam Thielen WR27 (13.2) WR16 (16.0) Going nuts (10 TDs) on 14 red zone targets.
Michael Gallup WR28 (13.0) WR71 (8.2) 7.9 xFPs in the 3 Dalton games. Deep targets.
Allen Robinson WR29 (12.9) WR21 (15.4) No excuse for his WR2/3 usage, Bears. WR2.
Tyler Lockett WR30 (12.6) WR44 (12.2) 22% targets in last 4. Efficient on WR3 usage.
Sterling Shepard WR31 (12.6) WR43 (12.6) 24% target share in last 4 weeks. Flex play.
D.J. Chark WR32 (12.5) WR22 (15.1) Efficient on inconsistent WR3 usage.
Mike Williams WR33 (12.3) WR27 (14.3) 108 air yards per game in last 4 weeks (8th).
Brandin Cooks WR34 (12.3) WR36 (13.2) Upside WR2/3 with less target competition.
John Brown WR35 (12.2) WR47 (11.4) Injuries have led to inconsistent flex usage.
KJ Hamler WR36 (12.1) WR54 (10.5) Slot YAC potential. 22-of-33 routes Week 11.
CeeDee Lamb WR37 (11.9) WR34 (13.4) 13.1 xFPs in the 3 Dalton games. Slot stud.
DeAndre Hopkins WR38 (11.9) WR29 (13.9) Efficient on 15.0 xFPs per game this season.
DeVante Parker WR39 (11.9) WR51 (10.7) xFPs: With Preston Williams (10.3), w/o (15.8).
A.J. Brown WR40 (11.9) WR42 (13.0) Stiff arms my regression models into the crust.
Chris Godwin WR41 (11.9) WR32 (13.5) Targets, aDOT (8.0) down with Brady. WR3.
Willie Snead WR42 (11.8) WR40 (13.0) More xFPs than Brown in 3 of last 4 games.
Darnell Mooney WR43 (11.6) WR58 (9.8) Empty air yards king with Foles. 14.2 aDOT.
Marvin Jones WR44 (11.6) WR15 (16.2) xFPs: With Golladay (7.2), without (11.9).
Kendrick Bourne WR45 (11.5) WR48 (11.4) Not a lock to keep the No. 3 job.
Larry Fitzgerald WR46 (11.5) WR64 (9.0) Season-high 14.7 xFPs Week 11. WR5 usage.
A.J. Green WR47 (11.3) WR89 (6.0) Least efficient WR now with a backup QB.
D.J. Moore WR48 (11.2) WR37 (13.2) Efficient on WR3/4 volume. 34-of-37 routes.
Christian Kirk WR49 (11.0) WR41 (13.0) 25% of targets are 20+ air yards. Volatile.
Michael Pittman WR50 (10.8) WR25 (14.8) Trending up but still WR4 usage.
Russell Gage WR51 (10.7) WR81 (6.8) 40-of-48 routes Week 11 with Julio injured.
Jalen Reagor WR52 (10.6) WR56 (10.0) Big play waiting to happen on WR5 usage.
Corey Davis WR53 (10.5) WR30 (13.7) Efficient flex option on WR4/5 usage.
Will Fuller WR54 (10.4) WR26 (14.6) Efficiency outlier on full-time routes. Upside.
Denzel Mims WR55 (10.2) WR66 (8.8) Led Week 11 in air yards. Boom-bust WR4/5.
Chris Conley WR56 (10.0) WR74 (7.6) Has played more with Laviska hurt.
Jarvis Landry WR57 (9.9) WR85 (6.5) Not separating in run-heaviest OFF. WR4/5.
Breshad Perriman WR58 (9.8) WR8 (20.3) 8.8 xFPs in 5 healthy games. Mims emerging.
Travis Fulgham WR59 (9.6) WR73 (7.8) Under 12.0 xFPs in all 3 games with Reagor.
T.Y. Hilton WR60 (9.5) WR76 (7.3) Ghost of T.Y. seeing WR5/6 usage.
Demarcus Robinson WR61 (9.2) WR39 (13.0) 46-of-53 routes with Sammy out Week 11.
Cole Beasley WR62 (9.2) WR38 (13.1) xFPs: With Brown (10.5), without (13.5).
Justin Jefferson WR63 (9.1) WR33 (13.5) Don't bet against the Griddy. Upside WR2/3.
Zach Pascal WR64 (9.0) WR70 (8.4) Low aDOT slot option on WR6 usage.
Danny Amendola WR65 (8.9) WR62 (9.1) One game above 11.0 xFPs all year.
Darius Slayton WR66 (8.9) WR65 (8.9) 17% target share in last 4 weeks. Needs TDs.
Braxton Berrios WR67 (8.9) WR80 (6.9) 1 Week 11 route with Crowder (35) back.
Nelson Agholor WR68 (8.9) WR63 (9.0) Only two games above 8.5 xFPs. WR5/6.
Amari Cooper WR69 (8.9) WR60 (9.4) 13.7 xFPs in the 3 Dalton games. Trending up.
Damiere Byrd WR70 (8.4) WR45 (11.4) Had career-high 132 yards on iffy usage.
Jakeem Grant WR71 (8.3) WR79 (7.0) xFPs: With Preston Williams (4.8), w/o (10.5).
Marquise Brown WR72 (8.0) WR98 (4.4) Under 12.0 xFPs in 8-of-10 games. WR5.
Valdes-Scantling WR73 (7.6) WR28 (14.0) Big play WR5/6 on 17.4 aDOT. Lazard back.
Randall Cobb WR74 (7.6) WR88 (6.1) Likely out weeks (foot). Coutee to replace.
Marvin Hall WR75 (7.2) WR57 (10.0) 30-of-40 Week 11 routes as deep threat.
Keelan Cole WR76 (7.2) WR77 (7.3) Near full-time slot WR on bad offense.
Cordarrelle Patterson WR77 (7.1) WR90 (5.8) Best Bears non-ARob skill player?
Mecole Hardman WR78 (7.1) WR50 (11.0) Limited to 14-of-53 routes. COVID related?
David Moore WR79 (6.9) WR59 (9.5) Week 11 routes: Moore (21 of 41), Swain (8).
Emmanuel Sanders WR80 (6.7) WR69 (8.6) 6.7 xFPs per game in 3 since MT returned.
Greg Ward WR81 (6.6) WR91 (5.7) 33-of-43 routes as slot in 3-WR sets.
Golden Tate WR82 (6.6) WR67 (8.8) Under 9.0 xFPs in 6-straight games.
Auden Tate WR83 (6.4) WR87 (6.5) Only 16-of-52 routes in Week 11.
Gabriel Davis WR84 (6.4) WR92 (5.7) 42 air yards per game as the No. 4 WR.
Marcus Johnson WR85 (6.2) WR110 (2.9) No. 4 receiver.
DaeSean Hamilton WR86 (6.1) WR68 (8.7) No. 4 receiver.
Cam Sims WR87 (5.7) WR61 (9.1) 27-of-28 routes in Week 11.
Isaiah Wright WR88 (5.6) WR86 (6.5) Week 11 routes: CS (27-of-28), IW (11), SS (11).
Steven Sims WR89 (5.5) WR78 (7.1) Battling Wright for slot snaps in 3-WR sets.
Jalen Guyton WR90 (5.4) WR114 (2.8) Not being targeted despite 54-of-59 routes.
River Cracraft WR91 (5.3) WR125 (1.7) Obviously not a thing.
Henry Ruggs WR92 (5.3) WR106 (3.2) Taking my L on rookie year Ruggs.
Rashard Higgins WR93 (5.2) WR83 (6.6) Week 11 routes: Hodge (23), Higgins (19).
Austin Mack WR94 (5.1) WR84 (6.6) No. 4 receiver.
Trent Taylor WR95 (5.1) WR115 (2.7) Obviously not a thing.
Cedrick Wilson WR96 (5.0) WR139 (0.7) Week 11 routes: Noah Brown (12), Wilson (6).
Hunter Renfrow WR97 (4.8) WR72 (7.8) Under 9.0 xFPs in 6-straight games.
Byron Pringle WR98 (4.6) WR105 (3.3) Played ahead of Hardman in Week 11.
Christian Blake WR99 (4.5) WR96 (4.8) Week 11 routes: Blake (27), Zaccheaus (7).
Jeff Smith WR100 (4.5) WR117 (2.5) No. 4 receiver.

 

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Fantasy Usage Model - TEs

Average expected PPR points and PPR data from the last four weeks. I’ve removed injuries and noted other adjustments.

Player Fantasy Usage Actual PPR Context
Travis Kelce TE1 (19.6) TE1 (25.8) On pace for all-time TE2 overall season.
Darren Waller TE2 (13.3) TE3 (12.4) At least 8.9 xFPs in all games. Top-3 TE.
Evan Engram TE3 (13.1) TE9 (10.4) Inefficient on TE1 usage. Boom-bust TE1.
Dalton Schultz TE4 (12.5) TE6 (10.9) Iffy on low-end TE1 usage. 27-of-35 routes lw.
T.J. Hockenson TE5 (12.2) TE7 (10.6) Routes sadly down in last 2 weeks (toe).
Mark Andrews TE6 (11.6) TE5 (11.3) Volatile TE1. Slight bump w/o Nick Boyle.
Hunter Henry TE7 (11.4) TE8 (10.6) At least 9.5 xFPs in 8-of-10 games. TE1.
Eric Ebron TE8 (10.2) TE4 (11.4) Needs TDs but steady low-end TE1 usage.
Dallas Goedert TE9 (10.0) TE2 (13.0) 9.3 & 10.7 xFPs in 2 games since bye. TE1.
Noah Fant TE10 (9.7) TE12 (8.4) Willing to bet on athleticism + TE1/2 usage.
Hayden Hurst TE11 (9.6) TE14 (7.9) TE1/2 usage on top-5 routes. Decent floor.
Jonnu Smith TE12 (9.3) TE10 (9.4) TE1/2 usage tied to RZ targets (1.3 P/G).
Logan Thomas TE13 (9.2) TE21 (6.4) Inefficient as full-time route runner. TE2.
Jimmy Graham TE14 (9.1) TE17 (6.9) 1.4 red zone targets per game as upside TE2.
Rob Gronkowski TE15 (9.0) TE13 (8.2) 9.0 xFPs in 3 games with AB back. TE1/2.
Gerald Everett TE16 (8.6) TE20 (6.5) Week 11 routes: Everett (22), Higbee (26).
Trey Burton TE17 (8.5) TE18 (6.9) Week 11 routes: MAC (17), TB (15), Doyle (11).
Tyler Eifert TE18 (7.9) TE26 (5.8) Awful on TE2/3 usage.
Anthony Firkser TE19 (7.7) TE33 (4.8) 19-of-39 Week 11 routes as No. 2 tight end.
Jordan Akins TE20 (6.8) TE24 (6.2) Week 11 routes: JA (26), PB (13), DF (9).
Tyler Higbee TE21 (6.8) TE25 (6.1) Efficient on TE2/3 usage when healthy (hand).
Robert Tonyan TE22 (6.7) TE11 (9.0) 5.8 xFPs with Adams. TD-needy TE2.
Jared Cook TE23 (6.6) TE31 (5.7) Season-low 3.0 xFPs in game with Taysom.
Mike Gesicki TE24 (6.3) TE27 (5.8) 7.4 xFPs in three games since Ford trade.
Greg Olsen TE25 (6.2) TE45 (3.2) Injured reserve (foot). Hollister szn?
Jacob Hollister TE26 (6.2) TE35 (4.4) Rarely blocks as solid receiver-only TE.
Austin Hooper TE27 (6.0) TE36 (4.2) 8.4 xFPs in 8 healthy games. 16-of-28 routes.
Jordan Reed TE28 (5.8) TE23 (6.3) 8.6 xFPs in 5 healthy games. TE2 option.
Ross Dwelley TE29 (5.4) TE19 (6.7) 3.9 xFPs in 2 games since Reed returned.
Mo Alie-Cox TE30 (5.4) TE32 (5.6) Needs TDs in TEBC.
Kyle Rudolph TE31 (5.3) TE22 (6.3) Week 11 routes: Irv (21 of 35), Rudolph (16).
Irv Smith TE32 (4.9) TE16 (7.3) Theoretical upside but no weekly floor.
Troy Fumagalli TE33 (4.8) TE59 (1.6) Obviously not a thing.
Jack Doyle TE34 (4.7) TE28 (5.8) Under 8.5 xFPs in all games. Off radar.
Dan Arnold TE35 (4.5) TE29 (5.8) No games above 7.5 xFPs.

 


Fantasy Usage Model - RBs

Average expected PPR points and PPR data from the last four weeks. I’ve removed injuries and noted other adjustments.

Player Fantasy Usage Actual PPR Context
Dalvin Cook RB1 (24.6) RB1 (32.5) 20.1 xFPs per game on season is 3rd. Baller.
Kalen Ballage RB2 (22.4) RB7 (15.2) Awful efficiency but 16.6, 23.9, & 26.7 xFPs.
J.D. McKissic RB3 (20.8) RB8 (15.0) Touch shares: Leading (15%), trailing (35%).
Alvin Kamara RB4 (20.5) RB2 (21.6) Taysom + foot = season-low 11.9 xFPs Wk 11.
Salvon Ahmed RB5 (18.3) RB12 (14.2) 18.6 & 18.1 xFPs in two games w/o Gaskin.
David Montgomery RB6 (18.3) RB33 (9.9) Awful efficiency on RB1/2 usage. RB3.
Josh Jacobs RB7 (18.1) RB4 (17.4) RB1 usage in wins, RB2 usage in losses.
Giovani Bernard RB8 (16.5) RB16 (13.7) Inefficient on RB1/2 usage. Now no Burrow.
Kenyan Drake RB9 (15.6) RB15 (14.0) Needs TDs as early-down grinder. RB2 usage.
James Robinson RB10 (15.4) RB17 (13.5) Lost some routes to Dare. Still an RB1/2.
Ezekiel Elliott RB11 (15.4) RB20 (12.2) QB + OL upgrades last week. Back to RB1/2.
Antonio Gibson RB12 (15.3) RB3 (18.1) Touch shares: Leading (30%), trailing (19%).
Kareem Hunt RB13 (15.1) RB24 (11.5) 16.0 xFPs in 5 games with Chubb. RB1/2.
Aaron Jones RB14 (14.6) RB10 (14.8) xFPs: With Adams (24.0), without (17.1). RB1.
Jerick McKinnon RB15 (14.3) RB23 (11.8) xFPs: With Mostert (9.1), without (12.1).
Miles Sanders RB16 (14.3) RB26 (11.3) Usage is down since injury. PHI just bad.
D'Andre Swift RB17 (14.0) RB11 (14.6) 15.7 xFPs in 5 healthy games since bye.
Derrick Henry RB18 (13.9) RB14 (14.0) Only 1.3 targets P/G in last 4. Needs TDs.
Wayne Gallman RB19 (13.6) RB5 (15.6) 13.8 xFPs in 4 starts without Freeman.
Chase Edmonds RB20 (13.3) RB19 (12.5) 10.5 xFPs per game with Drake. PPR RB3.
Duke Johnson RB21 (13.2) RB35 (9.7) Inefficient on RB2/3 usage. Bad OL, too.
Jonathan Taylor RB22 (12.9) RB37 (9.4) 17.9 xFPs Week 11 were most since Week 2.
Jamaal Williams RB23 (12.8) RB27 (11.1) Elite insurance with desperate flex value.
Mike Davis RB24 (12.5) RB31 (10.4) 18.2 xFPs in 8 games without CMC. RB1/2.
DeeJay Dallas RB25 (12.4) RB25 (11.5) Off the radar with Hyde (& Carson?) back.
Nyheim Hines RB26 (12.3) RB6 (15.5) Passing down back with hot hand potential.
Leonard Fournette RB27 (12.1) RB42 (8.7) I might have better hands out of the backfield.
Todd Gurley RB28 (12.1) RB39 (9.3) Touch shares: Leading (6%), trailing (35%).
Clyde Edwards-Helaire RB29 (11.7) RB18 (13.1) 12.5 xFPs in 4 games with Bell. Upside RB2.
Ronald Jones RB30 (11.7) RB29 (10.7) I certainly have better hands out of the backfield.
James Conner RB31 (11.4) RB36 (9.7) Inefficient & PIT going super pass heavy.
J.K. Dobbins RB32 (10.6) RB38 (9.4) Season-high 13.7 xFPs Week 11. COVID list.
Rex Burkhead RB33 (10.2) RB13 (14.1) Injured reserve (knee). Sony Michel up.
Melvin Gordon RB34 (10.1) RB34 (9.9) Goal-line + 3rd downs in RBBC. Upside RB2/3.
Nick Chubb RB35 (10.0) RB9 (14.9) Early-down only big-play threat. Needs TDs.
Damien Harris RB36 (10.0) RB21 (12.0) All Week 11 touches on early downs.
Frank Gore RB37 (9.9) RB43 (8.7) Season-high 17.5 xFPs Week 11 (Perine ankle).
Gus Edwards RB38 (9.7) RB41 (8.8) Edwards on early downs. Hill on pass downs.
Zack Moss RB39 (9.6) RB22 (11.9) Better TD bet over Singletary as iffy RB3s.
Jordan Wilkins RB40 (8.7) RB44 (7.9) Week 11 snaps: JT (46), NH (29), Wilkins (9).
Devin Singletary RB41 (8.6) RB53 (6.2) Under 9.0 xFPs in 5 of last 6 games.
James White RB42 (8.4) RB45 (7.3) 14.9 xFPs Week 11 with Rex hurt. PPR RB3.
Samaje Perine RB43 (8.3) RB47 (6.7) Droppable in deep leagues with Burrow out.
Darrell Henderson RB44 (8.0) RB48 (6.7) 6.5 & 8.5 xFPs in 2 games since bye. Akers?
Latavius Murray RB45 (7.8) RB46 (7.1) Played more Week 11 snaps (Kamara foot).
JaMycal Hasty RB46 (7.7) RB60 (5.4) Raheem Mostert (ankle) could be back.
Joshua Kelley RB47 (7.6) RB63 (4.7) Week 11 snaps: KB (55), TP (16), Kelley (11).
Boston Scott RB48 (7.4) RB28 (10.8) 5.0 xFPs with Miles. Jordan Howard signed.
Troymaine Pope RB49 (7.3) RB55 (6.0) Ballage time.
Adrian Peterson RB50 (7.0) RB67 (3.8) Only playing on early downs w/o Swift.
Cam Akers RB51 (6.8) RB50 (6.4) Earning trust but only 12 snaps Week 11.
Malcolm Brown RB52 (6.6) RB32 (10.2) Preferred pass protector as 3rd down back.
Tyler Ervin RB53 (6.5) RB62 (4.7) Removed Week 11.
Phillip Lindsay RB54 (6.4) RB49 (6.6) 15-of-16 touches on early downs last week.
Lamical Perine RB55 (6.1) RB57 (5.6) Sprained ankle in Week 11.
Le'Veon Bell RB56 (6.0) RB52 (6.2) Week 11 snaps: CEH (40), Bell (20), DWill (20).
Tony Pollard RB57 (5.8) RB40 (9.1) Under 8.5 xFPs in 9-of-10 games. Insurance.
Ty Johnson RB58 (5.5) RB64 (4.4) Potential passing down back in bad offense.
Devontae Booker RB59 (5.5) RB30 (10.7) Jacobs' insurance.
Brian Hill RB60 (5.5) RB65 (4.2) More snaps than Gurley (26 to 23) Week 11.

 


The Fantasy Usage Model: Week 12

Part 1: High Value RB Touches (Sunday Night)

Part 2: Targets Aren’t Created Equal (Monday Night)

Part 3: Air Yards Report (Monday Night)

Part 4: Fantasy Usage Model Notes (Tuesday)

My Twitter: @HaydenWinks