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Fantasy Usage Model

Fantasy Usage Model: Week 2

by Hayden Winks
Updated On: September 16, 2020, 4:49 pm ET

Now that good data is publicly available, we’re able to more accurately evaluate opportunity for fantasy players. In this column, you’ll get the results of my “Fantasy Usage Model”, which is simply how many PPR fantasy points an average NFL player in an average NFL offense would’ve scored with the same exact adjusted opportunity. Read Targets Aren’t Created Equal and Carries Aren’t Created Equal if you want to see the type of variables that go into this model, but think air yards, relation to the sideline, yards from the end zone, and scheme indicator metrics. It’s a “Buy Low Model” if you’re familiar with the concept (shoutout to the great Josh Hermsmeyer). After comparing my model’s results with each player’s actual box scores, I’ll highlight players who I think are values for the upcoming week. This last part of the process is the most important because I know the things my model doesn’t understand and I can add the much-needed context to give the best results by combining analytics with news, injuries, and film. As always, reach out to me on Twitter (@HaydenWinks) if you have any questions.

 

Fantasy Usage Model - WRs

Week 1 fantasy usage and PPR data.

Player

Fantasy Usage

Actual PPR

Context

Davante Adams

32.1 (WR1)

41.6 (WR1)

Easily the WR1 overall.

Calvin Ridley

23.4 (WR2)

33.9 (WR2)

Will have top-10 volume.

DeAndre Hopkins

22.7 (WR3)

29.1 (WR3)

Shocking volume. Stud.

Amari Cooper

21.4 (WR4)

19.1 (WR15)

Great game vs. Ramsey.

Darius Slayton

20.5 (WR5)

28.2 (WR5)

Exploded w Tate out.

Russell Gage

20.0 (WR6)

20.4 (WR11)

Garbage-time king.

Jamison Crowder

19.7 (WR7)

24.5 (WR8)

Ugly OFF. Who cares?

Sammy Watkins

19.6 (WR8)

21.5 (WR10)

His mental health is better.

Quintez Cephus

19.4 (WR9)

7.3 (WR63)

Rookie in Golladay's role.

John Brown

19.4 (WR10)

19.0 (WR16)

Can't figure this out yet.

Julio Jones

19.3 (WR11)

24.7 (WR7)

Copy/paste 1,400 yards.

Allen Robinson

17.8 (WR12)

12.3 (WR33)

Will have top-10 volume.

D.J. Moore

17.5 (WR13)

9.4 (WR49)

More WR2 than WR1.

Odell Beckham

16.4 (WR14)

5.2 (WR77)

Used but missed (again).

Stefon Diggs

15.7 (WR15)

16.6 (WR22)

More PaAtt than expected.

Mike Williams

15.5 (WR16)

10.9 (WR39)

Appeared healthy.

Will Fuller

15.5 (WR17)

19.2 (WR14)

WR2 with huge upside.

A.J. Green

14.9 (WR18)

10.1 (WR44)

25% target share in return.

Parris Campbell

14.5 (WR19)

14.0 (WR27)

Athlete, good fit with Phil.

Emmanuel Sanders

14.2 (WR20)

10.5 (WR43)

Is Thomas injured?

T.Y. Hilton

14.0 (WR21)

9.3 (WR50)

IND will pass more in '20.

Diontae Johnson

14.0 (WR22)

11.7 (WR34)

Inconsistent but targeted.

Keenan Allen

13.5 (WR23)

7.7 (WR61)

Tyrod can't feed everyone.

Robert Woods

13.5 (WR24)

17.9 (WR18)

WR2 with WR1 upside.

Marvin Jones

13.4 (WR25)

9.5 (WR48)

WR3/flex with Golladay.

A.J. Brown

13.3 (WR26)

8.9 (WR53)

Already regressing to WR3.

Adam Thielen

13.0 (WR27)

29.0 (WR4)

MIN run rate is only concern.

Cole Beasley

12.8 (WR28)

9.8 (WR45)

Likely the odd man out.

Preston Williams

12.7 (WR29)

6.1 (WR74)

WR3 usage in bad OFF.

Julian Edelman

12.6 (WR30)

13.0 (WR31)

Ignore snaps. WR3 usage.

Jerry Jeudy

12.6 (WR31)

9.6 (WR46)

Bad drops but targeted.

Curtis Samuel

12.5 (WR32)

9.3 (WR50)

Moved to slot. Inconsistent.

Corey Davis

12.3 (WR33)

17.1 (WR21)

12-team bench option.

DK Metcalf

12.0 (WR34)

19.5 (WR13)

Efficiency outlier. WR2.

Terry McLaurin

11.8 (WR35)

11.1 (WR37)

WR3 even in bad script.

Chris Godwin

11.8 (WR36)

13.9 (WR28)

How washed is Brady?

Tyler Lockett

11.5 (WR37)

17.2 (WR20)

Efficiency outlier. WR2.

JuJu Smith-Schuster

11.5 (WR38)

24.9 (WR6)

Big Ben looked alright!

DeSean Jackson

11.5 (WR39)

6.6 (WR72)

Just missed big plays.

Trent Taylor

11.4 (WR40)

2.7 (WR99)

At least ran routes.

Robby Anderson

11.4 (WR41)

23.5 (WR9)

WR4/5 usage as No. 3.

Adam Humphries

11.4 (WR42)

10.7 (WR41)

Very low ceiling.

Demarcus Robinson

11.4 (WR43)

5.0 (WR78)

Bad drops but No. 3 WR.

Anthony Miller

11.1 (WR44)

17.6 (WR19)

Route % is a concern.

CeeDee Lamb

10.9 (WR45)

10.9 (WR39)

WR4 with upside.

Danny Amendola

10.9 (WR46)

13.1 (WR30)

WR4 if Golladay misses.

Tyreek Hill

10.6 (WR47)

15.6 (WR25)

Efficiency outlier. WR1/2.

N'Keal Harry

10.4 (WR48)

8.9 (WR53)

Clearly No. 2 WR in NE.

Marquise Brown

10.3 (WR49)

15.1 (WR26)

Efficiency outlier. WR2/3.

Kendrick Bourne

10.2 (WR50)

5.4 (WR76)

WR5/6 with Deebo injured.

Greg Ward

10.0 (WR51)

8.1 (WR57)

Low ceiling.

Sterling Shepard

9.9 (WR52)

10.7 (WR41)

WR4/5 in suspect OFF.

Jarvis Landry

9.7 (WR53)

11.1 (WR37)

Flex only if Baker stinks.

Scotty Miller

9.5 (WR54)

12.9 (WR32)

WR5 if Evans is hurt.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling

9.3 (WR55)

19.6 (WR12)

Deep league pickup only.

Cooper Kupp

9.3 (WR56)

8.0 (WR58)

Only a 16% target share.

Michael Thomas

9.1 (WR57)

4.7 (WR79)

Sprained ankle.

Allen Lazard

8.7 (WR58)

18.2 (WR17)

Still a WR5 type.

Henry Ruggs

8.7 (WR59)

9.6 (WR46)

Promising debut as a WR4.

Dontrelle Inman

8.7 (WR60)

4.1 (WR84)

Off the radar.

Laviska Shenault

8.3 (WR61)

13.7 (WR29)

Must-add in 12-teamers.

Chris Hogan

8.2 (WR62)

1.0 (WR117)

Off the radar.

Mike Evans

8.1 (WR63)

7.2 (WR65)

Clearly injured in Week 1.

Miles Boykin

8.1 (WR64)

6.7 (WR70)

TD-dependent No. 2 WR.

Keelan Cole

8.0 (WR65)

15.7 (WR24)

Played ahead of Conley.

Willie Snead

7.9 (WR66)

16.4 (WR23)

TD-dependent No. 3 WR.

John Ross

7.8 (WR67)

3.7 (WR90)

Bad drops but played.

Christian Kirk

7.7 (WR68)

1.0 (WR117)

Bad in '19. Bad in Week 1.

Brandin Cooks

7.7 (WR69)

4.0 (WR88)

Week 1 was a bad sign.

Michael Gallup

7.6 (WR70)

8.0 (WR58)

Shocking. Not sure why.

John Hightower

7.5 (WR71)

0.8 (WR119)

Off the radar.

Jalen Reagor

7.3 (WR72)

6.5 (WR73)

Bench stash only.

Tim Patrick

7.2 (WR73)

6.9 (WR68)

Off the radar.

David Moore

7.2 (WR74)

7.0 (WR67)

Off the radar.

Tyler Boyd

6.8 (WR75)

7.3 (WR63)

WR4/5 with A.J. back.

Breshad Perriman

6.8 (WR76)

4.7 (WR79)

TD-dependent in bad OFF.

Larry Fitzgerald

6.8 (WR77)

7.4 (WR62)

Off the radar.

Randall Cobb

6.4 (WR78)

4.3 (WR83)

Off the radar.

Bisi Johnson

6.3 (WR79)

8.6 (WR56)

Off the radar.

D.J. Chark

6.2 (WR80)

11.5 (WR35)

Minshew only had 20 att.

James Washington

5.9 (WR81)

11.4 (WR36)

Big-play threat only.

Jakeem Grant

5.8 (WR82)

5.5 (WR75)

Off the radar.

Zach Pascal

5.6 (WR83)

3.8 (WR89)

Off the radar.

Isaiah McKenzie

5.5 (WR84)

4.7 (WR79)

Off the radar.

Isaiah Ford

5.3 (WR85)

3.3 (WR96)

Off the radar.

Javon Wims

5.2 (WR86)

7.1 (WR66)

Off the radar.

Steven Sims

5.1 (WR87)

8.0 (WR58)

Off the radar.

DeAndre Carter

4.9 (WR88)

1.8 (WR109)

Off the radar.

DeVante Parker

4.9 (WR89)

8.7 (WR55)

Aggravated hamstring.

Mike Thomas

4.8 (WR90)

3.7 (WR90)

Off the radar.

Darnell Mooney

4.8 (WR91)

6.8 (WR69)

Off the radar.

KhaDarel Hodge

4.7 (WR92)

2.2 (WR104)

Off the radar.

DaeSean Hamilton

4.7 (WR93)

2.8 (WR98)

Off the radar.

Van Jefferson

4.5 (WR94)

4.1 (WR84)

Off the radar.

Hunter Renfrow

4.3 (WR95)

4.1 (WR84)

Off the radar.

Justin Jefferson

4.2 (WR96)

4.6 (WR82)

Off the radar.

Cordarrelle Patterson

4.1 (WR97)

4.1 (WR84)

Off the radar.

Marvin Hall

3.6 (WR98)

3.6 (WR93)

Off the radar.

Kalif Raymond

3.5 (WR99)

2.2 (WR104)

Off the radar.

Michael Pittman

3.5 (WR100)

3.0 (WR97)

Off the radar.

 

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Top 10 Rebound Candidates of Week 2

These are the 10 WRs I project to go overlooked after suspect box score production recently.

 

1. Allen Robinson

Will it be pretty with Mitchell Trubisky? No, but the volume will be there for Robinson regardless. In Week 1, Robinson had 10 targets and 148 air yards (WR12 fantasy usage), making him an all-too-obvious rebound candidate ahead of the Week 2 matchup against a woeful Giants secondary that was just roasted by all three Steelers receivers. Robinson also had 25.1 PPR points against New York last season.

 

2. D.J. Moore

Teddy Bridgewater has a limited arm, but the Panthers will sling the rock a ton, even if Moore’s target share drops with Robby Anderson providing more target competition. His WR13 fantasy usage from Week 1 is a sign that he’ll provide at least WR2-level fantasy numbers on a team that’ll be constantly forced into negative game scripts. I’m buying low on Moore, particularly with the Bucs secondary beatable and pass funnelly (if that’s a word). 

 

3. Keenan Allen

There are more people than chairs when the music stops in the Chargers Offense. The first game was ugly, but Allen is a rebound candidate after converting nine targets and 88 air yards (WR23 fantasy usage) into 7.7 PPR points, especially with negative game script coming in Week 2. Expect a healthy number of targets for Allen while trailing to the Chiefs’ next Sunday. He’s scored 23.2 and 21.1 PPR points in his last two contests against Kansas City. I like him as an upside WR3.

 

4. A.J. Green

The Bengals passing offense has work to do after a sluggish Week 1 performance, but part of that was because of the Chargers’ stud defense. Even though it only equated to 10.1 PPR points, Green looked like a version of his old self and operated as the Bengals’ clear-cut top target (25% target share with WR18 fantasy usage) despite only running a route on 69% of the Bengals’ dropbacks as he works into playing shape. A softer matchup against the Browns’ injured secondary is the perfect buy low spot for Green, who was doubted all offseason by the fantasy community. Consider me a Green buyer as a WR3 rebound candidate.

 

5. T.Y. Hilton

The Colts somehow lost to the damn Jaguars in Week 1, but Hilton was very involved as expected. He had nine targets and 109 air yards (WR21 fantasy usage) while earning a 20% target share. Indianapolis will throw the ball far more than they did in 2019 with Philip Rivers under center, giving Hilton a clear path to WR2/3 production this season. There’s a potential for a ceiling game at home against the vulnerable Vikings’ corners in Week 2 (Davante Adams had 41.6 PPR points versus MIN last week). I’ll have Hilton inside my top-24 receivers most likely.

 

6. Marvin Jones

It was a disappointing 9.5 PPR-point performance for Jones in Week 1 with Kenny Golladay (hamstring) sidelined. The good news is that Jones’ volume was there (WR25 fantasy usage on eight targets and 70 air yards), and he’ll be facing an easier matchup in Week 2 against the Packers than he had in the season opener against the Bears. If Golladay is active, I like Jones as an upside flex. If Golladay’s hamstring lingers, Jones will be a WR3 with upside in Week 3, while rookie Quintez Cephus carries some deep-league appeal following his 10-target, 129-air yard performance.

 

7. Odell Beckham

Beckham was one of the biggest positive regression candidates of the offseason, yet he ends up here as a value after his disastrous Week 1 performance. Despite 129 air yards and 10 targets (WR14 fantasy usage), Odell busted for 5.2 PPR points. He had a bad drop, but otherwise looked explosive as a big-play threat. The bigger issue is his chemistry with Baker Mayfield, who I think is just bad at this point. The good news is that he catches the Bengals at home on a short week next. We’ll quickly learn if there’s any hope in Cleveland. I’ll be rolling the dice.

 

8. Emmanuel Sanders

Drew Brees’ age looks like an actual problem, but Sanders’ Week 1 usage wasn’t. He had WR20 fantasy usage on five targets because they came closer to the goal-line. That’s the advantage of playing for a good football team like the Saints. His Week 2 matchup against the Raiders couldn’t be better, especially after the Panthers’ receiver corps went crazy against them last Sunday. Sanders has flex appeal if Michael Thomas is active. If he’s not, Sanders must be in season-long lineups.

 

9. A.J. Brown

Well, well, well. The biggest negative regression candidate of 2020 has appeared on a positive regression candidate list for Week 2. Brown’s unsustainable efficiency as a rookie won’t repeat this season, but neither will his below-average stat line from Week 1 while playing in the Denver altitude. He still saw WR26 fantasy usage on eight targets, which is in line with my WR3 projection for Brown this season. Expect a rebound game at home against the beatable Jaguars secondary this week.

 

10. Preston Williams

With CB Stephon Gilmore in coverage, Williams struggled to produce in the box score, but Week 1 was still a positive for his 2020 outlook. He handled WR29 fantasy usage with seven targets and 104 air yards, and DeVante Parker left after aggravating his lingering hamstring injury. If Parker is out for Week 2, I’d be willing to start Williams even though he’ll be draped by CB Tre’Davious White and the Bills’ studly secondary. The usage is too much to ignore.

 


Fantasy Usage Model - TEs

Week 1 fantasy usage and PPR data.

Player

Fantasy Usage

Actual PPR

Context

Mark Andrews

16.3 (TE1)

22.8 (TE2)

Jumping to elite tier.

Logan Thomas

16.0 (TE2)

13.7 (TE7)

This year's Waller?

Hunter Henry

15.5 (TE3)

12.3 (TE12)

TE1 in a limited OFF.

Jimmy Graham

15.1 (TE4)

11.5 (TE14)

What the heck? I'll fade.

Zach Ertz

14.6 (TE5)

10.8 (TE15)

Catch. Fall over. Repeat.

Dallas Goedert

14.5 (TE6)

24.1 (TE1)

Changing of the guard?

Evan Engram

13.8 (TE7)

2.9 (TE36)

Usage checked TE1 box.

Jonnu Smith

12.6 (TE8)

13.6 (TE8)

Week 1 was a good sign.

Travis Kelce

12.2 (TE9)

17 (TE4)

Elite TE1 always.

Jared Cook

11.2 (TE10)

13 (TE10)

TE1/2 in good situation.

Noah Fant

10.7 (TE11)

19.1 (TE3)

Flashed w Sutton out.

Darren Waller

10.6 (TE12)

10.5 (TE16)

Should be fine as a TE1.

Chris Herndon

10.5 (TE13)

9.7 (TE17)

On TE1/2 borderline.

George Kittle

10.1 (TE14)

9.3 (TE18)

Missed snaps. Elite TE1.

O.J. Howard

9.5 (TE15)

13.6 (TE8)

Better than Old Gronk.

T.J. Hockenson

9.4 (TE16)

16.6 (TE5)

Flashed w Golladay out.

C.J. Uzomah

9.0 (TE17)

8.5 (TE19)

Okay TE2 streamer.

Mike Gesicki

8.9 (TE18)

6 (TE24)

Big slot on TE1/2 line.

Jack Doyle

8.1 (TE19)

7.9 (TE20)

Okay TE2 streamer.

Dalton Schultz

8.0 (TE20)

2.1 (TE44)

New Jarwin as a TE2/3.

Greg Olsen

7.5 (TE21)

12.4 (TE11)

Okay TE2 streamer.

David Njoku

7.5 (TE22)

14 (TE6)

Injured.

Hayden Hurst

7.0 (TE23)

6.8 (TE23)

TE1/2 in good situation.

Dawson Knox

6.9 (TE24)

4.6 (TE26)

Okay TE2 streamer.

Tyler Higbee

6.1 (TE25)

7 (TE22)

TE1/2 in good situation.

Nick Vannett

5.6 (TE26)

0.4 (TE57)

Off the radar.

Jake Butt

5.5 (TE27)

1 (TE55)

Got punched on MNF.

Rob Gronkowski

4.7 (TE28)

3.1 (TE35)

Saw on a milk carton.

Nick Boyle

4.4 (TE29)

2.3 (TE40)

Off the radar.

Jordan Akins

4.1 (TE30)

11.9 (TE13)

Off the radar.

Vance McDonald

4.0 (TE31)

1.3 (TE53)

Off the radar.

MyCole Pruitt

3.9 (TE32)

7.1 (TE21)

Off the radar.

Eric Ebron

3.8 (TE33)

2.8 (TE37)

Off the radar.

Jason Witten

3.5 (TE34)

1.2 (TE54)

Off the radar.

Kyle Rudolph

3.5 (TE35)

4.8 (TE25)

Off the radar.

Josiah Deguara

3.4 (TE36)

2.2 (TE42)

Off the radar.

Anthony Firkser

3.4 (TE37)

2.5 (TE39)

Off the radar.

Mo Alie-Cox

3.3 (TE38)

4 (TE28)

Off the radar.

Austin Hooper

3.2 (TE39)

3.5 (TE32)

Week 1 was a bad sign.

Kaden Smith

3.2 (TE40)

3.7 (TE30)

Off the radar.

Jordan Reed

3.1 (TE41)

3.2 (TE34)

Off the radar.

Ian Thomas

3.1 (TE42)

3.6 (TE31)

Droppable.

Virgil Green

3.1 (TE43)

2 (TE46)

Off the radar.

Ryan Izzo

3.0 (TE44)

3.5 (TE32)

Off the radar.

Cole Kmet

2.9 (TE45)

0 (TE58)

Off the radar.

Harrison Bryant

2.8 (TE46)

1.5 (TE51)

Off the radar.

Demetrius Harris

2.7 (TE47)

0 (TE58)

Off the radar.

Gerald Everett

2.7 (TE48)

1.7 (TE49)

Off the radar.

Will Dissly

2.7 (TE49)

2.8 (TE37)

Off the radar.

Dan Arnold

2.7 (TE50)

4.1 (TE27)

Off the radar.

Maxx Williams

2.6 (TE51)

0 (TE58)

Off the radar.

Jamal Agnew

2.6 (TE52)

0 (TE58)

Off the radar.

Darren Fells

2.6 (TE53)

3.9 (TE29)

Off the radar.

Irv Smith

1.7 (TE54)

2.1 (TE44)

Droppable.

Chris Manhertz

1.6 (TE55)

1.4 (TE52)

Off the radar.

Jace Sternberger

1.6 (TE56)

0 (TE58)

Droppable.

Luke Stocker

1.5 (TE57)

0 (TE58)

Off the radar.

Cameron Brate

1.5 (TE58)

0 (TE58)

Off the radar.

Blake Jarwin

1.4 (TE59)

2.2 (TE42)

Tore ACL.

Stephen Carlson

1.4 (TE60)

0 (TE58)

Off the radar.

Tyler Eifert

1.4 (TE61)

1.8 (TE48)

Off the radar.

Jacob Hollister

1.3 (TE62)

1.9 (TE47)

Off the radar.

James O'Shaughnessy

1.3 (TE63)

1 (TE55)

Off the radar.

Drew Sample

1.3 (TE64)

1.7 (TE49)

Off the radar.

Levine Toilolo

1.3 (TE65)

2.3 (TE40)

Off the radar.

 

 


Fantasy Usage Model - RBs

Week 1 fantasy usage and PPR data.

Player

Fantasy Usage

Actual PPR

Context

Clyde Edwards-Helaire

28.8 (RB1)

19.8 (RB10)

Failed at GL.

Aaron Jones

28.2 (RB2)

17.6 (RB12)

Great game script.

Josh Jacobs

28.0 (RB3)

35.9 (RB1)

Played pass downs.

Derrick Henry

27.7 (RB4)

16.1 (RB14)

Had more pass downs.

Saquon Barkley

26.3 (RB5)

12.6 (RB23)

Stuffed by PIT.

Alvin Kamara

25.3 (RB6)

23.7 (RB8)

Top-5 RB.

Zack Moss

23.7 (RB7)

11.7 (RB27)

Failed at GL.

Nyheim Hines

23.1 (RB8)

27.3 (RB4)

Rivers peppers RBs.

Christian McCaffrey

22.9 (RB9)

28.4 (RB2)

Slightly smaller role.

Peyton Barber

22.5 (RB10)

14.9 (RB15)

Needs game script.

Ezekiel Elliott

21.4 (RB11)

27.7 (RB3)

Top-5 RB.

Todd Gurley

20.4 (RB12)

13.7 (RB20)

3-down role for now.

Malcolm Brown

20.2 (RB13)

26 (RB5)

Leader of RBBC.

Devin Singletary

17.3 (RB14)

10.3 (RB31)

Aided by scoreboard.

Jonathan Taylor

16.8 (RB15)

14.9 (RB15)

Mack to IR.

Melvin Gordon

16.5 (RB16)

17.6 (RB12)

Lindsay injured?

Raheem Mostert

16.3 (RB17)

25.1 (RB6)

Clear SF lead back.

Latavius Murray

15.7 (RB18)

4.8 (RB56)

Aided by scoreboard.

Jerick McKinnon

15.3 (RB19)

13.4 (RB22)

Passing down RB.

Ronald Jones

14.9 (RB20)

10.2 (RB32)

Fournette is coming.

Kareem Hunt

14.5 (RB21)

12.1 (RB24)

Aided by scoreboard.

Chris Carson

14.2 (RB22)

24.6 (RB7)

SEA #LetRussCook.

Dalvin Cook

14.0 (RB23)

17.8 (RB11)

Run-first (bad) team.

Adrian Peterson

13.8 (RB24)

14.4 (RB18)

Better than Kerryon.

Jamaal Williams

13.0 (RB25)

8.2 (RB40)

GB change of pace.

Austin Ekeler

13.0 (RB26)

9.7 (RB35)

Lost targets, GL work.

Kenyan Drake

12.5 (RB27)

14.5 (RB17)

Bad game script.

David Montgomery

11.9 (RB28)

8.4 (RB38)

Will play more.

Joe Mixon

11.7 (RB29)

8.1 (RB43)

Few passing downs.

Chase Edmonds

11.7 (RB30)

13.5 (RB21)

Mostly RB insurance.

D'Andre Swift

11.5 (RB31)

11.3 (RB28)

RB2 in RBBC.

Benny Snell

11.3 (RB32)

11.3 (RB28)

May start Week 2.

David Johnson

11.2 (RB33)

19.9 (RB9)

Looked good.

Joshua Kelley

11.1 (RB34)

12 (RB25)

Had some GL looks.

J.D. McKissic

10.9 (RB35)

0.9 (RB83)

Split work with AG.

Alexander Mattison

10.3 (RB36)

12 (RB25)

Elite RB insurance.

James Robinson

10.2 (RB37)

10 (RB34)

Flex in deep leagues.

Myles Gaskin

9.7 (RB38)

10.6 (RB30)

Better than Breida.

Jordan Howard

9.4 (RB39)

6.7 (RB47)

Why'd you draft him?

Cam Akers

9.3 (RB40)

5.3 (RB53)

Bench stash only.

Giovani Bernard

9.3 (RB41)

6.8 (RB46)

Played passing downs.

James Conner

9.3 (RB42)

3.7 (RB61)

Sprained ankle.

Antonio Gibson

9.2 (RB43)

6.4 (RB50)

Flex as an underdog.

Tarik Cohen

8.5 (RB44)

6.7 (RB47)

Bench stash only.

Devontae Booker

8.2 (RB45)

8.2 (RB40)

Off the radar.

Ito Smith

8.1 (RB46)

3.6 (RB62)

Off the radar.

Phillip Lindsay

8.0 (RB47)

4.5 (RB57)

Injured foot.

Mark Ingram

7.6 (RB48)

2.9 (RB65)

TD-dependent RB3.

J.K. Dobbins

7.5 (RB49)

14.2 (RB19)

Involved in RZ.

James White

7.5 (RB50)

8.2 (RB40)

NE will be run-heavy.

Boston Scott

7.5 (RB51)

7.4 (RB45)

OL ruined RB2/3 status.

Sony Michel

7.2 (RB52)

9.7 (RB35)

RBBC next to Cam.

Darrel Williams

6.4 (RB53)

5 (RB55)

Elite RB insurance.

Marlon Mack

6.2 (RB54)

8.6 (RB37)

Tore Achilles.

Travis Homer

5.9 (RB55)

2.3 (RB72)

Off the radar.

Nick Chubb

5.9 (RB56)

7.6 (RB44)

RB2 who needs a lead.

Le'Veon Bell

5.6 (RB57)

6.6 (RB49)

Injured hamstring.

Joshua Adams

5.5 (RB58)

10.2 (RB32)

Off the radar.

Corey Clement

5.5 (RB59)

4.1 (RB59)

Off the radar.

Carlos Hyde

5.4 (RB60)

8.3 (RB39)

Off the radar.

Tony Pollard

5.2 (RB61)

5.2 (RB54)

RB insurance only.

Royce Freeman

5.0 (RB62)

2.2 (RB73)

Is Lindsay injured?

Tevin Coleman

4.5 (RB63)

3.4 (RB63)

Played few snaps.

Leonard Fournette

4.1 (RB64)

2.9 (RB65)

Snaps will increase.

Matt Breida

4.0 (RB65)

2.2 (RB73)

Droppable.

Brian Hill

3.8 (RB66)

4 (RB60)

Off the radar.

Duke Johnson

3.8 (RB67)

1.4 (RB77)

Injured early.

Kyle Juszczyk

3.2 (RB68)

5.8 (RB51)

Off the radar.

Rex Burkhead

3.2 (RB69)

3.2 (RB64)

Off the radar.

J.J. Taylor

3.1 (RB70)

4.2 (RB58)

Off the radar.

Kerryon Johnson

3.1 (RB71)

1.4 (RB77)

Droppable.

Tyler Ervin

3.0 (RB72)

5.4 (RB52)

Off the radar.

Patrick Ricard

3.0 (RB73)

1.4 (RB77)

Off the radar.

Chris Thompson

2.8 (RB74)

2.6 (RB68)

Droppable.

Jaylen Samuels

2.8 (RB75)

1.3 (RB81)

Off the radar.

Patrick Laird

2.6 (RB76)

2.9 (RB65)

Off the radar.

Frank Gore

2.6 (RB77)

2.4 (RB70)

May start Week 2.

Darrell Henderson

2.4 (RB78)

0.6 (RB84)

Droppable.

LeSean McCoy

2.4 (RB79)

1.2 (RB82)

Off the radar.

Alex Armah

2.3 (RB80)

0.1 (RB88)

Off the radar.

Gus Edwards

2.1 (RB81)

1.7 (RB75)

Off the radar.

Dion Lewis

2.1 (RB82)

0.1 (RB88)

Off the radar.

Jeremy McNichols

1.8 (RB83)

0 (RB91)

Off the radar.

Wayne Gallman

1.4 (RB84)

2.4 (RB70)

Off the radar.

Jalen Richard

1.4 (RB85)

2.5 (RB69)

Off the radar.

Khari Blasingame

1.3 (RB86)

1.5 (RB76)

Off the radar.

Justin Jackson

1.0 (RB87)

0.4 (RB86)

Droppable.

AJ Dillon

0.9 (RB88)

1.4 (RB77)

RB insurance only.

D'Ernest Johnson

0.5 (RB89)

0.5 (RB85)

Off the radar.

Jason Huntley

0.4 (RB90)

0.1 (RB88)

Off the radar.

Anthony Sherman

0.3 (RB91)

0.2 (RB87)

Off the radar.

 

 


Week 1 Targets, Air Yards, Carries, and Red Zone Stats

Data courtesy of @nflfastR, @benbbaldwin, and @mrcaseb. Please let me know if you see incorrect data, which likely would be my fault to be honest (@HaydenWinks). Scroll right on desktop. Flip your phone on mobile.

Player Pos Targets Air Yards RZ Targets Carries Inside 10 Carries
DeSean Jackson WR 7 214 0 0 0
Julio Jones WR 12 188 1 0 0
Davante Adams WR 17 163 3 0 0
Allen Robinson WR 9 148 2 1 0
Mike Williams WR 9 147 1 0 0
Adam Thielen WR 8 143 1 0 0
Jalen Reagor WR 4 136 0 0 0
A.J. Green WR 9 132 0 0 0
Marquez Valdes-Scantling WR 6 129 0 0 0
Odell Beckham WR 10 129 0 0 0
Quintez Cephus WR 10 129 2 0 0
Will Fuller WR 10 129 0 0 0
DK Metcalf WR 8 118 0 0 0
Marquise Brown WR 6 114 0 0 0
Amari Cooper WR 14 113 2 0 0
Anthony Miller WR 6 109 1 0 0
Jamison Crowder WR 13 109 1 0 0
T.Y. Hilton WR 9 109 1 0 0
Parris Campbell WR 9 107 0 1 0
Preston Williams WR 7 104 1 0 0
DeAndre Hopkins WR 16 103 0 0 0
Darius Slayton WR 9 102 3 0 0
John Brown WR 10 102 3 0 0
D.J. Moore WR 9 100 1 0 0
Jerry Jeudy WR 8 100 0 0 0
Corey Davis WR 8 95 0 0 0
Henry Ruggs WR 5 93 0 2 0
Russell Gage WR 12 89 2 0 0
Stefon Diggs WR 9 89 2 0 0
Keenan Allen WR 8 88 1 0 0
Robby Anderson WR 9 82 2 0 0
Tyler Lockett WR 8 77 0 0 0
Jarvis Landry WR 6 76 0 0 0
Michael Gallup WR 5 76 0 0 0
O.J. Howard TE 6 75 2 0 0
DaeSean Hamilton WR 3 74 0 0 0
Hunter Henry TE 8 73 2 0 0
Logan Thomas TE 8 72 1 0 0
Christian Kirk WR 5 70 0 0 0
Curtis Samuel WR 8 70 0 1 0
Dontrelle Inman WR 5 70 0 0 0
Marvin Jones WR 8 70 1 0 0
Terry McLaurin WR 7 70 1 0 0
Danny Amendola WR 7 67 0 0 0
Chris Godwin WR 7 66 1 0 0
Jared Cook TE 7 66 1 0 0
Diontae Johnson WR 10 63 0 0 0
Mark Andrews TE 6 63 4 0 0
John Ross WR 5 62 0 0 0
Marvin Hall WR 2 62 0 0 0
Tim Patrick WR 5 62 0 0 0
Julian Edelman WR 7 61 1 1 0
Sammy Watkins WR 9 59 3 1 0
Kendrick Bourne WR 5 58 1 0 0
Dallas Goedert TE 9 57 1 0 0
Zach Ertz TE 7 57 1 0 0
Mike Gesicki TE 5 56 1 0 0
Noah Fant TE 6 56 1 0 0
Scotty Miller WR 6 56 0 1 0
Van Jefferson WR 3 56 0 0 0
A.J. Brown WR 8 51 1 0 0
Chris Hogan WR 4 49 1 0 0
Tyreek Hill WR 6 49 1 0 0
Cole Beasley WR 7 48 1 0 0
David Njoku TE 3 48 1 0 0
Chris Herndon TE 7 47 0 0 0
Mike Evans WR 5 47 2 0 0
Brandin Cooks WR 5 46 0 0 0
C.J. Uzomah TE 5 46 1 0 0
James Washington WR 3 46 1 0 0
Michael Thomas WR 5 45 2 0 0
Willie Snead WR 4 44 2 0 0
Jack Doyle TE 4 43 1 0 0
Adam Humphries WR 7 42 1 0 0
Demarcus Robinson WR 6 42 2 0 0
Bisi Johnson WR 4 42 0 0 0
Allen Lazard WR 4 41 1 1 0
Calvin Ridley WR 12 41 3 1 0
DeVante Parker WR 4 40 0 0 0
Eric Ebron TE 2 39 0 0 0
Hayden Hurst TE 6 38 1 0 0
Breshad Perriman WR 5 37 0 0 0
CeeDee Lamb WR 6 37 1 0 0
Sterling Shepard WR 7 37 2 0 0
Greg Ward WR 7 36 0 0 0
Laviska Shenault WR 4 36 1 2 0
Tyler Boyd WR 5 35 0 0 0
Tajae Sharpe WR 1 35 0 0 0
Dante Pettis WR 1 34 0 0 0
Saquon Barkley RB 9 34 2 15 1
Evan Engram TE 7 33 2 0 0
KhaDarel Hodge WR 3 33 0 0 0
Trent Taylor WR 5 33 3 0 0
Chase Claypool WR 2 32 0 1 0
John Hightower WR 4 32 1 0 0
Zach Pascal WR 3 32 1 0 0
JuJu Smith-Schuster WR 6 31 2 0 0
Keelan Cole WR 5 31 0 0 0
Darren Waller TE 8 30 1 0 0
Kenny Stills WR 2 30 0 0 0
Tyler Higbee TE 4 30 0 0 0
Jerick McKinnon RB 5 29 2 3 2
Jakeem Grant WR 4 28 0 0 0
Mike Thomas WR 3 28 0 0 0
J.D. McKissic RB 5 27 2 3 0
George Kittle TE 5 26 1 1 0
Isaiah Ford WR 4 26 0 0 0
Darnell Mooney WR 3 25 0 0 0
Miles Boykin WR 4 25 2 0 0
Emmanuel Sanders WR 5 24 4 0 0
Jordan Akins TE 2 24 1 0 0
Josiah Deguara TE 2 24 0 0 0
Nelson Agholor WR 1 23 0 0 0
Josh Hill WR 1 22 0 0 0
Kalif Raymond WR 2 22 0 0 0
Kyle Rudolph TE 2 22 0 0 0
N'Keal Harry WR 6 22 1 0 0
Rob Gronkowski TE 3 22 0 0 0
T.J. Hockenson TE 5 22 1 0 0
Kyle Juszczyk RB 2 20 0 1 0
Cooper Kupp WR 5 19 1 0 0
Greg Olsen TE 4 19 1 0 0
Dawson Knox TE 3 18 2 0 0
Le'Veon Bell RB 2 18 0 6 0
Robert Woods WR 8 18 2 1 0
Josh Jacobs RB 6 17 0 25 6
Ryan Izzo TE 2 17 0 0 0
Ted Ginn WR 1 17 0 0 0
DeAndre Carter WR 2 16 1 0 0
D.J. Chark WR 3 16 1 0 0
Gerald Everett TE 2 16 0 0 0
Steven Sims WR 3 16 1 0 0
Austin Hooper TE 2 15 0 0 0
Larry Fitzgerald WR 5 15 0 0 0
C.J. Board WR 2 14 0 0 0
Dalton Schultz TE 4 14 2 0 0
Devin Singletary RB 7 14 2 9 0
Jalen Guyton WR 1 14 0 0 0
Raheem Mostert RB 5 14 0 15 1
Seth Roberts WR 2 14 0 0 0
Travis Kelce TE 6 14 2 0 0
Demetrius Harris TE 1 13 1 0 0
Jonnu Smith TE 7 13 1 0 0
Alexander Mattison RB 4 12 0 6 1
Blake Jarwin TE 1 12 0 0 0
Collin Johnson WR 1 12 0 0 0
Damion Ratley WR 1 12 1 0 0
Ian Thomas TE 2 12 0 0 0
Jamal Agnew TE 1 12 1 0 0
Irv Smith TE 1 11 0 0 0
Michael Pittman WR 2 11 0 0 0
Randall Cobb WR 4 11 2 0 0
Virgil Green TE 2 11 0 0 0
Justin Jefferson WR 3 10 0 0 0
Cole Kmet TE 1 9 1 0 0
Harrison Bryant TE 2 9 0 0 0
Justin Watson WR 2 9 0 0 0
Zack Moss RB 4 9 2 9 4
D'Andre Swift RB 5 8 1 3 1
Gabriel Davis WR 2 8 0 0 0
Nick Boyle TE 3 8 0 0 0
Brian Hill RB 2 7 0 3 0
Ezekiel Elliott RB 4 7 1 22 2
Rashard Higgins WR 1 7 0 0 0
Dan Arnold TE 2 6 0 0 0
Darren Fells TE 2 6 0 0 0
Freddie Swain WR 1 6 0 0 0
Hunter Renfrow WR 2 6 1 0 0
Jalen Richard RB 1 6 0 0 0
Mo Alie-Cox TE 2 6 0 0 0
Nick Chubb RB 1 6 0 10 0
Tevin Coleman RB 2 6 0 4 0
Alvin Kamara RB 8 5 2 12 3
Josh Adams RB 2 5 0 2 1
Jordan Reed TE 2 5 0 0 0
James White RB 3 5 0 5 0
Luke Stocker TE 1 5 0 0 0
Levine Toilolo TE 1 5 0 0 0
Phillip Lindsay RB 1 5 1 7 1
Christian McCaffrey RB 4 4 0 23 4
Josh Reynolds WR 1 4 1 0 0
Kaden Smith TE 2 4 0 0 0
Ronald Jones RB 3 4 0 17 2
Todd Gurley RB 5 4 0 14 3
Tre'Quan Smith WR 1 4 0 0 0
Anthony Firkser TE 2 3 0 0 0
Aaron Jones RB 6 3 4 16 3
Cordarrelle Patterson WR 1 3 0 4 1
Derrick Henry RB 3 3 1 31 3
David Moore WR 3 3 2 1 0
Jake Butt TE 2 3 1 0 0
Javon Wims WR 2 3 1 0 0
Kareem Hunt RB 6 3 0 13 1
LeSean McCoy RB 1 3 1 0 0
Royce Freeman RB 1 3 1 1 1
Vance McDonald TE 2 3 1 0 0
Adrian Peterson RB 3 2 0 14 1
Chase Edmonds RB 5 2 1 6 0
Chris Thompson RB 2 2 0 0 0
Jacob Hollister TE 1 2 0 0 0
Jason Witten TE 1 2 1 0 0
Maxx Williams TE 2 2 0 0 0
Nyheim Hines RB 8 2 2 7 2
Patrick Ricard RB 1 2 0 1 1
Cam Akers RB 1 1 0 14 1
Devontae Booker RB 3 1 1 4 0
Duke Johnson RB 1 1 0 5 0
Dion Lewis RB 1 1 0 1 0
Khari Blasingame RB 1 1 0 0 0
MyCole Pruitt TE 1 1 1 0 0
Tyler Eifert TE 1 1 0 0 0
Will Dissly TE 2 1 0 0 0
Wayne Gallman RB 1 1 0 0 0
Alex Armah RB 0 0 0 2 1
AJ Dillon RB 0 0 0 2 0
Aaron Rodgers QB 0 0 0 1 0
Anthony Sherman RB 0 0 0 1 0
Baker Mayfield QB 0 0 0 2 0
Ben Roethlisberger QB 0 0 0 3 0
Cameron Brate TE 1 0 0 0 0
Carlos Hyde RB 0 0 0 7 1
Cam Newton QB 0 0 0 15 4
Chris Streveler QB 0 0 0 1 0
Carson Wentz QB 0 0 0 1 0
Drew Brees QB 0 0 0 2 0
Dwayne Haskins QB 0 0 0 7 2
Darrell Henderson RB 0 0 0 3 0
D'Ernest Johnson RB 0 0 0 1 0
Daniel Jones QB 0 0 0 4 0
Drew Lock QB 0 0 0 3 0
Dak Prescott QB 0 0 0 3 0
Drew Sample TE 1 0 0 0 0
Deshaun Watson QB 0 0 0 6 1
Frank Gore RB 0 0 0 6 0
Gus Edwards RB 0 0 0 4 0
Gardner Minshew QB 0 0 0 5 0
Josh Allen QB 0 0 0 14 1
Joe Burrow QB 0 0 0 8 0
J.K. Dobbins RB 0 0 0 7 2
Jimmy Garoppolo QB 0 0 0 1 0
Jared Goff QB 0 0 0 4 0
Jordan Howard RB 0 0 0 8 3
Jason Huntley RB 0 0 0 1 0
Justin Jackson RB 0 0 0 2 0
Joshua Kelley RB 0 0 0 12 3
Kirk Cousins QB 0 0 0 4 0
Kerryon Johnson RB 0 0 0 7 0
Kyler Murray QB 0 0 0 13 0
Leonard Fournette RB 1 0 0 5 0
Lamar Jackson QB 0 0 0 7 0
Latavius Murray RB 1 0 1 15 4
Matt Breida RB 0 0 0 5 0
Mark Ingram RB 0 0 0 10 1
Matt Ryan QB 0 0 0 1 0
Matthew Stafford QB 0 0 0 5 0
Mitchell Trubisky QB 0 0 0 3 0
Peyton Barber RB 0 0 0 17 7
Philip Rivers QB 0 0 0 1 0
Rex Burkhead RB 0 0 0 7 0
Ryan Fitzpatrick QB 0 0 0 6 2
Robert Griffin QB 0 0 0 1 0
Ryan Tannehill QB 0 0 0 3 0
Russell Wilson QB 0 0 0 3 0
Stephen Carlson TE 1 0 0 0 0
Sam Darnold QB 0 0 0 1 0
Sony Michel RB 0 0 0 10 1
Tim Boyle QB 0 0 0 2 0
Tom Brady QB 0 0 0 3 1
Teddy Bridgewater QB 0 0 0 4 0
Ty Montgomery WR 0 0 0 1 1
Tyrod Taylor QB 0 0 0 6 0
Bryan Edwards WR 1 -1 0 0 0
Braxton Miller WR 1 -1 0 0 0
Chris Conley WR 1 -1 0 0 0
Devin Duvernay WR 1 -1 0 0 0
Jimmy Graham TE 7 -1 3 0 0
Marlon Mack RB 3 -1 0 4 0
Patrick Laird RB 2 -1 0 0 0
Taysom Hill QB 1 -1 0 3 1
Benny Snell RB 1 -2 0 19 0
Ito Smith RB 3 -2 2 1 0
James Conner RB 4 -2 0 6 0
James O'Shaughnessy TE 1 -2 0 0 0
Jaylen Samuels RB 1 -2 0 1 0
Myles Gaskin RB 4 -2 0 9 0
Chris Manhertz TE 1 -3 0 0 0
David Johnson RB 4 -3 0 11 0
Giovani Bernard RB 5 -3 1 1 0
Melvin Gordon RB 3 -3 0 15 2
Mecole Hardman WR 1 -3 0 0 0
Tyrie Cleveland WR 1 -3 0 0 0
Tony Pollard RB 3 -3 0 2 0
JJ Taylor RB 1 -4 0 4 0
Tyler Ervin RB 1 -4 0 3 0
Travis Homer RB 2 -4 0 3 1
Austin Ekeler RB 1 -5 0 19 1
Jeremy McNichols RB 2 -5 0 0 0
James Robinson RB 1 -5 0 16 1
Nick Vannett TE 2 -5 1 0 0
Tarik Cohen RB 2 -5 1 7 0
Boston Scott RB 2 -6 0 9 0
Corey Clement RB 2 -6 0 6 0
David Montgomery RB 3 -6 1 13 0
Jamaal Williams RB 4 -6 1 7 1
Kenyan Drake RB 2 -6 0 16 1
Antonio Gibson RB 2 -7 0 9 1
Chris Carson RB 6 -7 2 6 0
Clyde Edwards-Helaire RB 2 -7 0 25 7
Deonte Harris WR 1 -7 0 1 0
Darrel Williams RB 2 -7 0 7 0
Dalvin Cook RB 2 -8 0 14 5
Joe Mixon RB 2 -9 0 19 0
Isaiah McKenzie WR 3 -10 1 0 0
Jonathan Taylor RB 6 -20 2 9 1
Malcolm Brown RB 4 -20 1 18 3
Jace Sternberger TE 1 -21 0 0 0