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Fantasy Usage Model

The Fantasy Usage Model: Week 3

by Hayden Winks
Updated On: September 22, 2020, 3:25 pm ET

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“The Fantasy Usage Model” simply is how many PPR fantasy points an average NFL player in an average NFL offense would’ve scored with the same exact opportunity. Read Targets Aren’t Created Equal and Carries Aren’t Created Equal if you want to see the type of variables that go into this model, but think air yards, relation to the sideline, yards from the end zone, and scheme indicator metrics. It’s a “Buy Low Model” (shoutout to the great Josh Hermsmeyer). To make things better, I manually clean the data each week with things I can adjust for that a computer wouldn’t know about (i.e. removing early-injury games) because the data is only as good as the context that comes with it. If you scroll down, you’ll see raw air yards, team share data, and RB touches while leading/trailing. This is basically all of the data I use to make my sit/start decisions. If you have questions, reach out to me on Twitter (@HaydenWinks)

 

Fantasy Usage Model - WRs

Average fantasy usage and PPR data from Weeks 1-2.

Player

Fantasy Usage

Actual PPR

Context

Davante Adams

32.1 (WR1)

41.6 (WR1)

Removed Week 2 (injury).

Calvin Ridley

22.1 (WR2)

31.9 (WR2)

Only WR with 20 xFP in 2 games.

Jamison Crowder

19.7 (WR3)

24.5 (WR4)

Missed Week 2. WR2 if healthy.

DeAndre Hopkins

19.5 (WR4)

25.0 (WR3)

Leads NFL in targets (25).

A.J. Green

19.4 (WR5)

8.0 (WR68)

Leads NFL in air yards (338).

D.J. Moore

19.3 (WR6)

14.7 (WR24)

46% of Carolina's air yards.

Russell Gage

18.4 (WR7)

18.5 (WR12)

23% target share in passing OFF.

Stefon Diggs

18.0 (WR8)

23.0 (WR5)

27% target share. Upside WR2.

Amari Cooper

17.2 (WR9)

17.1 (WR20)

23 targets only trail Hopkins.

Julian Edelman

17.2 (WR10)

19.5 (WR7)

Leader in air yards share (52%).

Diontae Johnson

17.0 (WR11)

17.5 (WR18)

32% target share. Fit with old Ben.

Darius Slayton

16.0 (WR12)

17.3 (WR19)

NYG with highest neutral pass rate.

N'Keal Harry

16.0 (WR13)

12.1 (WR38)

Week 2 likely to be an outlier.

Allen Robinson

15.8 (WR14)

9.3 (WR56)

A-Rob liked my "catchable" tweet.

Will Fuller

15.5 (WR15)

19.2 (WR9)

Removed Week 2 (hamstring). I know.

Keenan Allen

14.9 (WR16)

12.2 (WR36)

30% target share.

DeVante Parker

14.6 (WR17)

12.5 (WR34)

Removed Week 1 (injury).

Tyreek Hill

14.6 (WR18)

18.7 (WR10)

Efficiency outlier. Streaky WR1.

Parris Campbell

14.5 (WR19)

14.0 (WR29)

Injured knee.

John Brown

14.5 (WR20)

18.6 (WR11)

Benefiting from NYJ, MIA schedule.

Robby Anderson

14.0 (WR21)

21.7 (WR6)

24% target share is encouraging.

Odell Beckham

13.8 (WR22)

11.3 (WR43)

Which Baker are we getting?

Terry McLaurin

13.6 (WR23)

18.3 (WR15)

All 17 targets while trailing/tied.

CeeDee Lamb

13.6 (WR24)

14.2 (WR28)

Already looks special. Upside WR3.

Braxton Berrios

13.4 (WR25)

17.9 (WR16)

Only if Crowder & Perriman miss.

A.J. Brown

13.3 (WR26)

8.9 (WR59)

Missed Week 2.

Julio Jones

13.0 (WR27)

14.6 (WR26)

Seriously, how bad is the hammy?

Cole Beasley

12.8 (WR28)

10.9 (WR44)

WR5 who opened with easy sched.

Tyler Lockett

12.8 (WR29)

18.5 (WR13)

Efficiency outlier. Upside WR1/2.

Robert Woods

12.5 (WR30)

14.6 (WR25)

22% target share + carries.

KJ Hamler

12.4 (WR31)

8.7 (WR61)

Slot %: 2019 (89%), Week 2 (35%)

Marvin Jones

12.3 (WR32)

10.9 (WR44)

Could be better with Golladay.

Adam Thielen

12.3 (WR33)

17.6 (WR17)

33% target share leads NFL WRs.

Quintez Cephus

12.1 (WR34)

7.9 (WR70)

Can Golladay get healthy, please?

Jerry Jeudy

12.0 (WR35)

9.9 (WR49)

74% of snaps in slot. No Sutton.

DeSean Jackson

12.0 (WR36)

9.5 (WR54)

4th in air yards (282).

Preston Williams

11.9 (WR37)

4.9 (WR101)

Just faced NE, BUF corners.

JuJu Smith-Schuster

11.9 (WR38)

18.4 (WR14)

19% target share is worrisome.

Sammy Watkins

11.8 (WR39)

11.8 (WR41)

Left (head) in 3rd QT of Week 2.

Chris Godwin

11.8 (WR40)

13.9 (WR30)

Missed Week 2.

Mike Evans

11.5 (WR41)

15.3 (WR22)

Playing thru hammy injury. WR1.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling

11.5 (WR42)

14.5 (WR27)

Big-play WR5 if Adams is healthy.

Mike Williams

11.3 (WR43)

7.2 (WR79)

Needs Herbert to go up from WR5.

Tyler Boyd

11.2 (WR44)

13.8 (WR31)

13% target share is very suspect.

Brandin Cooks

11.1 (WR45)

9.3 (WR57)

WR4/5 who needs to be healthier.

T.Y. Hilton

11.0 (WR46)

7.6 (WR73)

20% target share up w/o Parris.

Corey Davis

10.7 (WR47)

14.9 (WR23)

WR4/5 usage even without A.J.

Danny Amendola

10.6 (WR48)

8.6 (WR62)

 

Adam Humphries

10.5 (WR49)

13.3 (WR32)

 

DK Metcalf

10.4 (WR50)

19.4 (WR8)

Efficiency outlier. Upside WR1/2.

Golden Tate

10.3 (WR51)

9.7 (WR50)

Missed Week 1.

Keelan Cole

10.1 (WR52)

16.8 (WR21)

 

Isaiah Ford

9.9 (WR53)

9.0 (WR58)

 

Courtland Sutton

9.9 (WR54)

9.6 (WR53)

Out for 2020.

Chris Hogan

9.9 (WR55)

7.3 (WR77)

 

Sterling Shepard

9.9 (WR56)

10.7 (WR46)

Injured?

Marquise Brown

9.7 (WR57)

12.2 (WR37)

BAL blowouts holding him back.

Emmanuel Sanders

9.5 (WR58)

6.7 (WR81)

Aging WR with already aged QB.

Cooper Kupp

9.3 (WR59)

11.5 (WR42)

Slot snaps gone from 66% to 55%.

Michael Thomas

9.1 (WR60)

4.7 (WR104)

Missed Week 2.

Kendrick Bourne

9.1 (WR61)

8.1 (WR66)

 

Josh Malone

9.0 (WR62)

6.8 (WR80)

 

Demarcus Robinson

8.9 (WR63)

5.4 (WR94)

Slower but I may have better hands.

Curtis Samuel

8.8 (WR64)

7.6 (WR71)

13% target & air yards share.

Allen Lazard

8.7 (WR65)

12.9 (WR33)

WR5 with a healthy Adams.

Larry Fitzgerald

8.6 (WR66)

9.7 (WR50)

 

Laviska Shenault

8.6 (WR67)

12.0 (WR39)

Flashing on schemed touches.

Anthony Miller

8.3 (WR68)

8.8 (WR60)

Slot only. Not in two-TE sets.

Dontrelle Inman

8.0 (WR69)

3.9 (WR115)

 

Trent Taylor

8.0 (WR70)

2.9 (WR120)

 

Michael Gallup

8.0 (WR71)

7.9 (WR69)

11% target share is major surprise.

Zach Pascal

7.8 (WR72)

7.4 (WR75)

 

Tim Patrick

7.8 (WR73)

5.7 (WR90)

 

Randall Cobb

7.6 (WR74)

7.6 (WR72)

 

Miles Boykin

7.6 (WR75)

7.3 (WR77)

 

Michael Pittman

7.4 (WR76)

5.4 (WR97)

97% routes run post-Parris.

Scotty Miller

7.4 (WR77)

8.1 (WR66)

 

Chris Conley

7.3 (WR78)

5.2 (WR98)

 

Jarvis Landry

7.2 (WR79)

9.4 (WR55)

Hunt moves him to WR4.

Christian Kirk

7.1 (WR80)

4.5 (WR106)

6.5 YPT with Kyler. Distant No. 2/3.

Tre'Quan Smith

7.1 (WR81)

7.5 (WR74)

Vertical threat w QB w/o an arm.

Steven Sims

6.9 (WR82)

8.2 (WR65)

 

Damiere Byrd

6.8 (WR83)

6.6 (WR82)

 

Van Jefferson

6.8 (WR84)

6.3 (WR84)

 

Jalen Reagor

6.6 (WR85)

7.3 (WR76)

Not quite a full-time player yet.

Henry Ruggs

6.6 (WR86)

5.5 (WR92)

Perhaps slowed by hamstring.

Mike Thomas

6.4 (WR87)

8.4 (WR63)

 

James Washington

6.4 (WR88)

8.3 (WR64)

May lose job to rookie Claypool.

David Moore

6.2 (WR89)

10.4 (WR48)

 

D.J. Chark

6.0 (WR90)

12.0 (WR39)

One more week until I panic.

Greg Ward

5.7 (WR91)

4.8 (WR102)

 

Justin Jefferson

5.7 (WR92)

6.0 (WR86)

MIN desperate for 2nd target.

Willie Snead

5.5 (WR93)

10.7 (WR47)

 

John Ross

5.4 (WR94)

1.9 (WR126)

Benched in Week 2.

Bisi Johnson

5.3 (WR95)

6.0 (WR86)

 

Darnell Mooney

5.3 (WR96)

9.7 (WR50)

CHI’s No. 2 outside WR.

Tee Higgins

5.0 (WR97)

3.3 (WR118)

Moving into full-time role.

Cordarrelle Patterson

4.9 (WR98)

4.7 (WR105)

 

Breshad Perriman

4.9 (WR99)

4.0 (WR114)

Injured?

DaeSean Hamilton

4.8 (WR100)

2.2 (WR123)

 

 

Top 10 Rebound Candidates of Week 3

1. A.J. GreenI’m giving the veteran receiver one more week to turn things around. Green is not only leading the Bengals in targets (22) through two weeks, but he’s also leading the NFL in air yards (338) with the next closest down at 311. We can fully expect Green to play below fantasy usage expectations given his age and situation, but there’s a middle ground to be had given his WR5 fantasy usage. His horrendous 45% “catchable target rate” and in-game stamina should improve as the season progresses. A few extra days of rest following last Thursday’s contest could be the recipe for top-36 production despite currently sitting at WR68. 

2. Preston WilliamsThe Dolphins have faced the Patriots and Bills through two weeks, meaning Williams has faced CBs Stephon Gilmore and Tre’Davious White in coverage to begin the season. Williams has been utilized (WR37 fantasy usage) but has just missed on plays. His 28% air yards share will pay off eventually, and a Week 3 matchup against the Jaguars (3rd most passing yards allowed) is an ideal way to cash in positive regression tickets. Williams has some flex appeal in 12-team leagues despite a WR101 start to the season. 

3. Allen RobinsonThe disgruntled receiver literally liked my tweet that read, “Only 47% of Robinson's 17 targets this year have been deemed catchable by PFF.” He’s certainly mad at his quarterback’s accuracy, but even for Trubisky’s standards, that’s too bad to not get better. Robinson’s 234 air yards are 8th in the NFL and his 29% target share is 9th. That’s translated to WR14 fantasy usage through two weeks. Despite his current standing as the WR56, I like Robinson as a top-15 receiver for Week 3’s matchup against the Falcons, who have allowed the second most passing yards (744) in the NFL so far.

4. Logan ThomasWashington’s offense should improve with more reps given the new scheme and their youthfulness in general. That’ll help Thomas cash in on his TE4 fantasy usage. The late-career breakout candidate currently has a 26% target share, the second highest among all tight ends. If he can stay above 20%, he’ll be a top-12 fantasy tight end. I’m willing to bet on that happening against the Browns in Week 3, even though Thomas has been the TE18 through two games. Cleveland has allowed the most fantasy points to the position after getting carved by Mark Andrews and Bengals TE Drew Sample if you’ve heard of him. 

5. Evan EngramThrough two games, Engram has TE7 fantasy usage but TE23 fantasy production. Given Engram’s talent and athleticism, this is the definition of just running bad on a small sample, making this a no-brainer buy low spot. That’s especially the case with Saquon Barkley and Sterling Shepard injured. Expect Engram’s 19% target share to climb right away. Even against the 49ers’ stud linebackers, I like Engram as a top 8 option this week.

6. Mike WilliamsKnown in the deep waters of analytics twitter as “Redacted”, Williams notoriously pops up as a rebound candidate in my fantasy usage model. He’s posted WR43 fantasy usage through two weeks while playing through a shoulder injury, but has only shown WR79 numbers in the box score. Still, there’s on-tape reasons to like Williams this week. First off, Justin Herbert is expected to start with Tyrod Taylor (ribs) battling the Chargers’ medical staff, but more importantly, L.A. faces the Panthers at home. Carolina has allowed 7.0 adjusted yards per attempt despite facing Vegas and Tampa to open the year. Williams is an upside WR4.

7. KJ HamlerMore of a deep-league only play, Hamler is set for a full complement of routes following Courtland Sutton’s knee injury. Hamler will rotate into the slot but is a good bet for at least one downfield target in Week 3 to take advantage of his sub-4.4 speed. The second-round rookie had 116 air yards on 7 targets in his debut (WR31 fantasy usage), enough looks to make him a bench stash in 12-team leagues. Denver hosts the Bucs at home on Sunday. Jerry Jeudy (WR35 fantasy usage) also is a good rebound candidate (WR49 production) as a 12-team flex option.

8. T.Y. HiltonHilton has been a rebound candidate for all three weeks, but I’m willing to go back to the well. He just missed a couple of long touchdowns and now is a candidate for more looks with Parris Campbell (21% of air yards) sidelined with a knee injury. Hilton’s WR73 production can be chalked up to just bad variance. A home matchup against the no-life Jets should be the right medicine to get back on track as a top-30 receiver.

9. Zach ErtzI believe Dallas Goedert is a better receiver than Ertz right now, but that doesn’t mean we fully fade Ertz. The offense needs Ertz’s reliability as an over-the-middle target while they work through growing pains at receiver. Ertz has quietly had TE8 production despite TE20 box scores, meaning he’s bound to positively regress at least to mid-range TE1 levels. The Eagles host the Bengals in Week 3. Cincy might have the only defense with linebackers slower than Ertz, our catch-and-fall king.

10. Marvin JonesJones is a natural lid-lifting No. 2 receiver for an offense, not a true alpha receiver. He only had a 19% target share in the two games without Kenny Golladay. I think Golladay’s projected return is a benefit for Jones, who now will face softer coverages and play in a more efficient offense. Jones’ target share and WR32 fantasy usage shouldn’t go down with Golladay in the lineup, but his efficiency will increase. Expect his WR44 production to pick up, especially with the fast-paced Cardinals on deck.

 


Fantasy Usage Model - TEs

Average fantasy usage and PPR data from Weeks 1-2.

Player

Fantasy Usage

Actual PPR

Context

Darren Waller

19.2 (TE1)

19.4 (TE2)

Leads NFL (!) in target share (35%).

Travis Kelce

16.9 (TE2)

20.5 (TE1)

All-time Top-10 TE szn coming?

Mike Gesicki

16.6 (TE3)

16.5 (TE6)

Leads MIA in target share (21%).

Logan Thomas

16.5 (TE4)

10.2 (TE18)

2nd among TEs in 26% target share.

Dallas Goedert

14.3 (TE5)

15.6 (TE7)

More targets, air yards than Ertz.

Hunter Henry

13.8 (TE6)

13.3 (TE12)

Mid-range TE1 with LAC playing fast.

Evan Engram

13.7 (TE7)

7.7 (TE23)

NYG with highest neutral pass rate.

Zach Ertz

12.7 (TE8)

10.0 (TE20)

2nd best TE in PHI. Mid-range TE1.

Dalton Schultz

12.3 (TE9)

13.0 (TE13)

Game-script set up huge Week 2.

Jonnu Smith

12.0 (TE10)

19.0 (TE3)

YAC monster with Brown boost.

Mark Andrews

11.2 (TE11)

13.4 (TE11)

BAL blowouts holding him back.

Noah Fant

10.6 (TE12)

17.4 (TE5)

2020: routes (70), pass block (2).

Hayden Hurst

10.5 (TE13)

12.5 (TE14)

3rd among TEs in routes run (78).

C.J. Uzomah

10.3 (TE14)

11.4 (TE16)

Out for 2020.

Jared Cook

10.2 (TE15)

11.2 (TE17)

TD-dependent TE with aged QB.

Jordan Reed

9.7 (TE16)

13.6 (TE9)

Looked explosive. 2-TE sets coming.

Drew Sample

9.6 (TE17)

6.6 (TE27)

Uzomah replaced on TE2/3 radar.

Chris Herndon

9.0 (TE18)

5.6 (TE29)

Gase is ruining Herndon.

Tyler Higbee

8.9 (TE19)

17.7 (TE4)

Lucky with TDs. LAR run-heavy.

Jimmy Graham

8.3 (TE20)

7.2 (TE25)

Not interested in old tight ends.

Jack Doyle

8.1 (TE21)

7.9 (TE21)

Missed Week 2.

O.J. Howard

7.6 (TE22)

7.9 (TE22)

Simply way better than Gronk.

T.J. Hockenson

7.5 (TE23)

13.4 (TE10)

TE23 usage w/o Golladay was sad.

David Njoku

7.5 (TE24)

14.0 (TE8)

Injured.

Mo Alie-Cox

6.9 (TE25)

10.1 (TE19)

TE2 streamer if Doyle is out again.

Tyler Eifert

6.8 (TE26)

7.2 (TE24)

TD-dependent TE2/3.

Jordan Akins

6.8 (TE27)

12.2 (TE15)

TD-dependent TE2/3.

Eric Ebron

6.2 (TE28)

5.1 (TE33)

TD-dependent TE2/3.

Dawson Knox

5.9 (TE29)

4.7 (TE34)

Not producing with MVP-level Allen. 

Austin Hooper

5.6 (TE30)

3.9 (TE37)

Run-first team with 2 stud WRs.

 


Fantasy Usage Model - RBs

Average fantasy usage and PPR data from Weeks 1-2.

Player

Fantasy Usage

Actual PPR

Context

Aaron Jones

27.4 (RB1)

31.6 (RB1)

Targets to routes rate is wild.

Ezekiel Elliott

27.2 (RB2)

26.0 (RB4)

Most inside-the-10 carries (9).

Alvin Kamara

26.5 (RB3)

31.1 (RB2)

NO offense is Kamara’s YAC.

Saquon Barkley

26.3 (RB4)

12.6 (RB26)

Torn ACL. Is it Gallman szn?

Miles Sanders

24.8 (RB5)

22.1 (RB7)

Played 82% of snaps in debut.

Josh Jacobs

24.6 (RB6)

24.7 (RB5)

2nd in carries. 13% target share.

Derrick Henry

23.4 (RB7)

12.3 (RB28)

Most carries in the NFL (56).

Clyde Edwards-Helaire

23.3 (RB8)

16.4 (RB14)

53% touch share while leading.

Christian McCaffrey

22.8 (RB9)

26.7 (RB3)

Out 4-6 weeks.

Jonathan Taylor

19.0 (RB10)

17.0 (RB11)

21.1 xFPs in lone game as starter.

Todd Gurley

16.9 (RB11)

9.9 (RB36)

More usage than production so far.

Raheem Mostert

16.3 (RB12)

21.9 (RB8)

Set MPH record in ideal scheme.

Melvin Gordon

16.3 (RB13)

17.0 (RB10)

Consistent RB2 workload.

Chris Carson

15.5 (RB14)

22.2 (RB6)

23 carries, but 14% target share.

Joshua Kelley

15.4 (RB15)

12.7 (RB25)

6 to 1 inside-10 carries vs. Ekeler.

Kenyan Drake

15.0 (RB16)

13.0 (RB24)

RB1/2 usage in great rushing OFF.

James Conner

14.8 (RB17)

11.9 (RB29)

50 to 10 snaps vs. Snell in Wk 2.

Joe Mixon

14.4 (RB18)

10.4 (RB34)

Major splits with/without a lead.

Devin Singletary

14.2 (RB19)

10.0 (RB35)

Between-the-20s RB only.

Nick Chubb

14.1 (RB20)

17.0 (RB11)

Needs positive game script.

Malcolm Brown

13.9 (RB21)

15.4 (RB17)

RBBC with no weekly floor.

Mike Davis

13.9 (RB22)

15.5 (RB15)

CMC leaves 41 carries, 12% targets.

Kareem Hunt

13.8 (RB23)

18.1 (RB9)

Running very hot early as 1B.

Zack Moss

13.8 (RB24)

7.7 (RB44)

4 to 1 inside-10 carries vs. Devin.

Austin Ekeler

13.7 (RB25)

14.3 (RB21)

Negative game script hero.

Dalvin Cook

13.5 (RB26)

16.5 (RB13)

8% target share is disappointing.

Myles Gaskin

12.5 (RB27)

12.4 (RB27)

29 Week 2 routes lead MIA RBs.

James Robinson

12.4 (RB28)

15.5 (RB15)

Wow: 31% touch share while trail.

Nyheim Hines

12.2 (RB29)

14.4 (RB20)

Tale of two games. No idea.

David Johnson

11.9 (RB30)

13.5 (RB23)

100% RB touches w/o Duke.

Peyton Barber

11.4 (RB31)

7.5 (RB45)

Only 9% touch share while trailing.

Giovani Bernard

11.4 (RB32)

7.2 (RB49)

LOL at this video of Mixon vs. Gio.

David Montgomery

11.4 (RB33)

15.1 (RB19)

Most carries w/o inside-10 carry.

Ronald Jones

11.2 (RB34)

10.5 (RB32)

Likely lost job after Week 2 fumble.

Leonard Fournette

11.1 (RB35)

15.3 (RB18)

Likely leads TB moving forward.

D'Andre Swift

10.9 (RB36)

11.8 (RB30)

Needs negative game script.

Mark Ingram

10.6 (RB37)

9.3 (RB38)

48 to 43/35 snaps vs. Dobbins/Gus.

Chase Edmonds

10.5 (RB38)

8.9 (RB40)

Elite RB insurance.

Antonio Gibson

9.9 (RB39)

9.3 (RB37)

Usage is already climbing.

Latavius Murray

9.8 (RB40)

5.1 (RB62)

Needs positive game script.

Jerick McKinnon

9.4 (RB41)

13.6 (RB22)

Can he be more than passing RB?

Cam Akers

9.3 (RB42)

5.3 (RB58)

Left Week 2. RBBC for LAR.

Jamaal Williams

8.6 (RB43)

7.3 (RB48)

 

J.D. McKissic

8.4 (RB44)

3.1 (RB80)

 

Rex Burkhead

8.4 (RB45)

6.1 (RB55)

 

Darrell Henderson

8.4 (RB46)

10.4 (RB33)

Value depends on Akers (ribs). 

Dion Lewis

8.3 (RB47)

7.9 (RB43)

Bet Gallman handles rushing downs.

Tevin Coleman

8.3 (RB48)

4.7 (RB65)

Out for Week 3 and maybe more.

Frank Gore

8.2 (RB49)

4.4 (RB69)

Couldn’t pay me to start him.

Adrian Peterson

8.1 (RB50)

9.3 (RB39)

Needs positive game script.

Phillip Lindsay

8.0 (RB51)

4.5 (RB66)

Missed Week 2.

Jordan Howard

7.9 (RB52)

6.6 (RB53)

Goal-line RB on bottom-5 offense.

James White

7.5 (RB53)

8.2 (RB42)

Missed Week 2.

LeSean McCoy

7.3 (RB54)

4.2 (RB73)

 

Boston Scott

7.2 (RB55)

7.4 (RB46)

RB insurance only.

Alexander Mattison

7.2 (RB56)

7.3 (RB47)

RB insurance only.

Benny Snell

7.0 (RB57)

6.2 (RB54)

Out-snapped by Conner, 50 to 10.

Ito Smith

7.0 (RB58)

2.8 (RB81)

 

Sony Michel

6.5 (RB59)

5.8 (RB56)

Goal-line back when it’s not Cam.

Darrel Williams

6.4 (RB60)

5.0 (RB63)

Left Week 2 (ankle) early.

 

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Targets and Air Yards

Average usage from Weeks 1-2, sorted by targets per game. Minimum 3.5 targets per game. For players who have missed a game, target share and air yards share are calculated using his team's per-game averages. If you want week-by-week air yards and target totals, visit this Google Sheet.

Name Targets Air Yards Target Share AY Share Games
Jamison Crowder 13.0 109 39% 54% 1
DeAndre Hopkins 12.5 70 32% 26% 2
Darren Waller 12.0 68 35% 31% 2
Diontae Johnson 11.5 72 32% 32% 2
Amari Cooper 11.5 117 26% 35% 2
D.J. Moore 11.0 136 29% 46% 2
Stefon Diggs 11.0 121 27% 36% 2
Calvin Ridley 11.0 156 24% 35% 2
A.J. Green 11.0 169 23% 44% 2
Russell Gage 10.5 73 23% 16% 2
Davante Adams 10.0 92 27% 28% 2
Travis Kelce 10.0 61 25% 31% 2
Will Fuller 10.0 129 29% 46% 1
Keenan Allen 9.5 102 30% 32% 2
Julian Edelman 9.0 117 29% 52% 2
N'Keal Harry 9.0 50 29% 22% 2
Allen Robinson 9.0 117 28% 39% 2
Robby Anderson 9.0 90 24% 30% 2
Parris Campbell 9.0 107 25% 42% 1
Saquon Barkley 9.0 34 22% 14% 1
Adam Thielen 8.5 145 33% 49% 2
Terry McLaurin 8.5 90 26% 34% 2
Logan Thomas 8.5 67 26% 25% 2
Alvin Kamara 8.5 2 25% 1% 2
Tyreek Hill 8.5 49 22% 25% 2
Dallas Goedert 8.5 61 20% 15% 2
Odell Beckham 8.0 103 26% 36% 2
Tyler Lockett 8.0 73 25% 31% 2
Hunter Henry 8.0 75 25% 24% 2
Mike Gesicki 8.0 88 21% 31% 2
John Brown 8.0 111 20% 33% 2
DeSean Jackson 8.0 141 19% 35% 2
Julio Jones 8.0 132 17% 30% 2
A.J. Brown 8.0 51 24% 22% 1
Jerry Jeudy 7.5 102 21% 25% 2
Darius Slayton 7.5 87 19% 35% 2
Evan Engram 7.5 39 19% 16% 2
CeeDee Lamb 7.5 51 17% 15% 2
DK Metcalf 7.0 105 22% 44% 2
T.Y. Hilton 7.0 98 20% 39% 2
Mike Evans 7.0 67 20% 25% 2
JuJu Smith-Schuster 7.0 29 19% 13% 2
Danny Amendola 7.0 73 19% 25% 2
Marvin Jones 7.0 40 19% 14% 2
Aaron Jones 7.0 32 19% 10% 2
Isaiah Ford 7.0 50 18% 17% 2
Zach Ertz 7.0 58 16% 14% 2
Dalton Schultz 7.0 29 16% 9% 2
Chris Godwin 7.0 66 20% 25% 1
KJ Hamler 7.0 116 19% 28% 1
Miles Sanders 7.0 25 16% 6% 1
Robert Woods 6.5 39 22% 22% 2
Mike Williams 6.5 106 20% 34% 2
Corey Davis 6.5 69 19% 30% 2
Adam Humphries 6.5 47 19% 20% 2
Brandin Cooks 6.5 85 19% 30% 2
Marquez Valdes-Scantling 6.5 107 18% 32% 2
Quintez Cephus 6.5 76 18% 26% 2
Cole Beasley 6.5 49 16% 15% 2
Hayden Hurst 6.5 49 14% 11% 2
Tyler Boyd 6.5 40 13% 10% 2
Marquise Brown 6.0 79 24% 35% 2
Keelan Cole 6.0 33 18% 14% 2
Chris Hogan 6.0 52 18% 25% 2
Jonnu Smith 6.0 23 18% 10% 2
Jared Cook 6.0 59 17% 34% 2
Preston Williams 6.0 79 16% 28% 2
DeVante Parker 6.0 59 16% 21% 2
Sammy Watkins 6.0 40 15% 20% 2
Larry Fitzgerald 6.0 20 15% 7% 2
Giovani Bernard 6.0 5 12% 1% 2
Josh Malone 6.0 17 18% 8% 1
Courtland Sutton 6.0 106 17% 26% 1
Cooper Kupp 5.5 23 19% 12% 2
Chris Herndon 5.5 32 17% 16% 2
Noah Fant 5.5 53 15% 13% 2
Myles Gaskin 5.5 -1 14% 0% 2
Ezekiel Elliott 5.5 -1 13% 0% 2
C.J. Uzomah 5.5 47 11% 12% 2
Kendrick Bourne 5.0 67 17% 38% 2
Jordan Reed 5.0 16 17% 9% 2
Dontrelle Inman 5.0 54 15% 20% 2
Tim Patrick 5.0 75 14% 18% 2
D'Andre Swift 5.0 10 14% 3% 2
Curtis Samuel 5.0 40 13% 13% 2
Christian Kirk 5.0 90 13% 33% 2
Demarcus Robinson 5.0 37 13% 19% 2
Clyde Edwards-Helaire 5.0 -2 13% -1% 2
Sterling Shepard 5.0 38 12% 15% 2
Devin Singletary 5.0 9 12% 3% 2
Michael Gallup 5.0 90 11% 27% 2
Drew Sample 5.0 20 10% 5% 2
George Kittle 5.0 26 17% 15% 1
Michael Thomas 5.0 45 14% 26% 1
Golden Tate 5.0 39 12% 16% 1
Damiere Byrd 4.5 47 14% 21% 2
Mark Andrews 4.5 51 18% 23% 2
Miles Boykin 4.5 27 18% 12% 2
Tyler Higbee 4.5 37 16% 20% 2
Jarvis Landry 4.5 49 15% 17% 2
Chris Carson 4.5 6 14% 2% 2
Anthony Miller 4.5 74 14% 25% 2
Steven Sims 4.5 40 14% 15% 2
Randall Cobb 4.5 24 13% 8% 2
Jordan Akins 4.5 22 13% 8% 2
Josh Jacobs 4.5 -5 13% -2% 2
O.J. Howard 4.5 49 13% 19% 2
Scotty Miller 4.5 44 13% 17% 2
Nyheim Hines 4.5 3 13% 1% 2
Allen Lazard 4.5 52 12% 15% 2
T.J. Hockenson 4.5 21 12% 7% 2
Christian McCaffrey 4.5 3 12% 1% 2
Chase Edmonds 4.5 12 11% 4% 2
Braxton Berrios 4.0 23 12% 11% 2
Mike Davis 4.0 1 11% 0% 2
Van Jefferson 4.0 51 14% 28% 2
Trent Taylor 4.0 26 13% 15% 2
Kareem Hunt 4.0 8 13% 3% 2
Jimmy Graham 4.0 26 13% 9% 2
Laviska Shenault 4.0 40 12% 17% 2
Chris Conley 4.0 29 12% 12% 2
Henry Ruggs 4.0 73 12% 34% 2
David Johnson 4.0 18 12% 6% 2
Tre'Quan Smith 4.0 35 12% 20% 2
Emmanuel Sanders 4.0 23 12% 13% 2
Mo Alie-Cox 4.0 42 11% 16% 2
Michael Pittman 4.0 29 11% 11% 2
LeSean McCoy 4.0 12 11% 4% 2
Jonathan Taylor 4.0 -15 11% -6% 2
James Washington 4.0 36 11% 16% 2
Jalen Reagor 4.0 76 9% 19% 2
Greg Ward 4.0 20 9% 5% 2
Jack Doyle 4.0 43 11% 17% 1
Bisi Johnson 3.5 40 13% 13% 2
Raheem Mostert 3.5 10 12% 6% 2
Tyler Eifert 3.5 45 11% 18% 2
D.J. Chark 3.5 44 11% 18% 2
Breshad Perriman 3.5 21 11% 10% 2
Zach Pascal 3.5 26 10% 10% 2
Eric Ebron 3.5 44 10% 19% 2
John Ross 3.5 42 7% 11% 2
Mike Thomas 3.5 27 7% 7% 2

 


Carries and Game Script Data

Average usage from Weeks 1-2, sorted by carries per game. Minimum 4.5 carries per game. “Touch % (Lead)” is a player’s share of team touches while his team is leading. I removed touch shares if a team has fewer than 20 plays in a game script or if a player has missed a game.

Player Carries Inside 10 Carries Leading Touch % Trailing Touch % Games
Derrick Henry 28.0 2.5 45% 48% 2
Josh Jacobs 26.0 4.0 62% 41% 2
Ezekiel Elliott 22.0 4.5 NA 38% 2
Christian McCaffrey 20.5 3.5 NA 39% 2
Miles Sanders 20.0 3.0 NA NA 1
Kenyan Drake 18.0 1.0 35% 23% 2
Clyde Edwards-Helaire 17.5 3.5 53% 23% 2
Joshua Kelley 17.5 3.0 34% 18% 2
Jonathan Taylor 17.5 1.5 30% 48% 2
Todd Gurley 17.5 1.5 29% 23% 2
Austin Ekeler 17.5 0.5 25% 36% 2
Joe Mixon 17.5 0.5 50% 18% 2
Aaron Jones 17.0 2.0 33% 34% 2
Melvin Gordon 17.0 1.0 NA 33% 2
Nick Chubb 16.0 2.5 37% 21% 2
James Robinson 16.0 0.5 NA 31% 2
Malcolm Brown 14.5 2.5 24% NA 2
David Montgomery 14.5 0.0 31% 28% 2
Frank Gore 13.5 0.5 NA 27% 2
Cam Newton 13.0 4.5 26% 18% 2
Dalvin Cook 13.0 2.5 NA 32% 2
Alvin Kamara 12.5 3.5 32% 40% 2
Ronald Jones 12.0 1.5 15% 24% 2
Chris Carson 11.5 1.0 25% 36% 2
Kareem Hunt 11.5 1.0 26% 27% 2
Lamar Jackson 11.5 0.5 17% NA 2
Raheem Mostert 11.5 0.5 24% NA 2
James Conner 11.0 2.5 19% 30% 2
Antonio Gibson 11.0 0.5 NA 24% 2
Benny Snell 11.0 0.0 23% 18% 2
David Johnson 11.0 0.0 NA 27% 2
Adrian Peterson 10.5 0.5 31% 6% 2
Kyler Murray 10.5 0.5 13% 16% 2
Mark Ingram 9.5 1.0 18% NA 2
Devin Singletary 9.5 0.5 24% NA 2
Saquon Barkley 9.5 0.5 NA 18% 2
Peyton Barber 9.0 3.5 NA 9% 2
Latavius Murray 9.0 2.0 24% 10% 2
Josh Allen 9.0 0.5 13% NA 2
Tevin Coleman 9.0 0.5 22% NA 2
Zack Moss 8.5 2.0 20% NA 2
Cam Akers 8.5 1.0 10% NA 2
Sony Michel 8.5 1.0 15% 0% 2
Leonard Fournette 8.5 0.5 36% 13% 2
Myles Gaskin 8.0 0.5 NA 24% 2
Darrell Henderson 7.5 1.0 18% NA 2
Joe Burrow 7.5 1.0 8% 11% 2
Kerryon Johnson 7.5 1.0 15% 3% 2
Jamaal Williams 7.5 0.5 13% 13% 2
Phillip Lindsay 7.0 1.0 NA NA 1
Gus Edwards 7.0 0.5 14% NA 2
Jordan Howard 6.5 2.5 NA 6% 2
Rex Burkhead 6.5 0.5 7% 9% 2
Boston Scott 6.5 0.0 21% 11% 2
Carlos Hyde 6.0 0.5 11% 19% 2
Matt Breida 6.0 0.0 NA 13% 2
Tarik Cohen 6.0 0.0 8% 14% 2
Le'Veon Bell 6.0 0.0 NA NA 1
Tyrod Taylor 6.0 0.0 NA NA 1
Cordarrelle Patterson 5.5 0.5 14% 5% 2
Dion Lewis 5.5 0.5 NA 18% 2
Deshaun Watson 5.5 0.5 NA 11% 2
Jared Goff 5.5 0.5 10% NA 2
J.D. McKissic 5.5 0.5 NA 15% 2
Duke Johnson 5.0 0.0 NA NA 1
James White 5.0 0.0 NA NA 1
Jordan Wilkins 4.5 0.0 14% 0% 2
J.K. Dobbins 4.5 1.0 10% NA 2
Alexander Mattison 4.5 0.5 NA 19% 2
Chase Edmonds 4.5 0.0 10% 16% 2
Gardner Minshew 4.5 0.0 NA 8% 2
Dak Prescott 4.0 1.5 NA 6% 2
Ryan Fitzpatrick 4.0 1.5 NA 7% 2
Dwayne Haskins 4.0 1.0 NA 4% 2
D'Andre Swift 4.0 1.0 13% 26% 2
Justin Herbert 4.0 1.0 NA NA 1
Russell Wilson 4.0 0.0 6% 8% 2
Marlon Mack 4.0 0.0 NA NA 1