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Fantasy Usage Model

The Fantasy Usage Model: Week 4

by Hayden Winks
Updated On: September 29, 2020, 2:44 pm ET

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“The Fantasy Usage Model” is simply how many PPR fantasy points an average NFL player in an average NFL offense would’ve scored with the same exact opportunity. Read Targets Aren’t Created Equal and Carries Aren’t Created Equal if you want to see the type of variables that go into this model, but think air yards, relation to the sideline, yards from the end zone, and scheme indicator metrics. It’s a “Buy Low Model” (shoutout to the great Josh Hermsmeyer). To make things better, I manually clean the data each week with things I can adjust for that a computer wouldn’t know about (i.e. removing early-injury games) because the data is only as good as the context that comes with it. If you scroll down, you’ll see raw air yards, team share data, and RB touches while leading/trailing. This is basically all of the data I use to make my sit/start decisions. If you have questions, reach out to me on Twitter (@HaydenWinks).

 

Fantasy Usage Model - WRs

Average fantasy usage and PPR data from Weeks 1-3. I removed injuries. "xFPs" are expected fantasy points (aka "Fantasy Usage").

Player

Fantasy Usage

Actual PPR

Context

Davante Adams

32.1 (WR1)

41.6 (WR1)

Removed Weeks 2-3 (hamstring).

Calvin Ridley

22.9 (WR2)

26.8 (WR2)

560 air yards. 2nd has 388.

Keenan Allen

20.9 (WR3)

18.8 (WR10)

16.2 & 33.1 xFPs with Herbert.

DeAndre Hopkins

19.8 (WR4)

24.5 (WR5)

1 of 2 WRs with 30+% target share.

Jamison Crowder

19.7 (WR5)

24.5 (WR6)

Missed Weeks 2-3. Target hog.

Julio Jones

19.3 (WR6)

24.7 (WR3)

Removed Weeks 2-3 (hamstring).

Russell Gage

18.4 (WR7)

18.5 (WR12)

Removed Week 3 (concussion).

Amari Cooper

17.7 (WR8)

17.2 (WR18)

Tied for 4th in targets P/G (11.7).

Tyler Lockett

17.2 (WR9)

24.6 (WR4)

Efficiency outlier + 28% target share.

Allen Robinson

17.2 (WR10)

15.6 (WR27)

WR1 volume + upgrade with Foles.

Diontae Johnson

17.0 (WR11)

17.5 (WR15)

Removed Week 3 (concussion).

Stefon Diggs

16.6 (WR12)

20.3 (WR7)

Surprising pass-heavy Bills' top WR.

A.J. Green

15.8 (WR13)

8.2 (WR71)

128 air yards P/G is 4th. Is he done?

Julian Edelman

15.3 (WR14)

14.4 (WR29)

Air yards share leader (52%)

D.J. Moore

15.0 (WR15)

12.6 (WR38)

2nd in AYDs share (48%). Buy low.

Darius Slayton

14.6 (WR16)

14.3 (WR30)

Spiked-week WR. 34% AYDs share.

Parris Campbell

14.5 (WR17)

14.0 (WR32)

Removed Weeks 2-3 (knee).

John Brown

14.5 (WR18)

18.6 (WR11)

Removed Week 3 (foot).

Terry McLaurin

14.1 (WR19)

16.4 (WR23)

WR2 usage/production in faster OFF.

Tyreek Hill

14.0 (WR20)

19.5 (WR9)

Efficiency outlier. Spiked-week WR1.

Tyler Boyd

13.9 (WR21)

16.7 (WR22)

18% target share in OFF 3rd in PaAt.

N'Keal Harry

13.8 (WR22)

9.9 (WR54)

Negative game script only. Slow.

Kenny Golladay

13.5 (WR23)

17.7 (WR14)

79% routes in 2020 rebut (hamstring).

A.J. Brown

13.3 (WR24)

8.9 (WR64)

Removed Weeks 2-3 (knee).

Will Fuller

13.3 (WR25)

17.3 (WR17)

Removed Week 2 (hamstring).

Jerry Jeudy

13.2 (WR26)

10.1 (WR51)

12.6 & 15.5 xFPs without Sutton.

Cole Beasley

13.1 (WR27)

12.6 (WR40)

PPR WR3 if Brown misses.

Sammy Watkins

12.8 (WR28)

12.3 (WR42)

This includes Week 2's short game.

Robby Anderson

12.8 (WR29)

17.9 (WR13)

Target share: RA 23%, CS 13%.

Chris Godwin

12.7 (WR30)

15.7 (WR26)

Concussion. Now a hamstring.

Odell Beckham

12.5 (WR31)

10.8 (WR46)

40% air yards share is 6th. Run OFF.

CeeDee Lamb

12.5 (WR32)

13.3 (WR36)

63% Week 3 routes. A tad injured.

Robert Woods

12.0 (WR33)

16.9 (WR21)

LA is last in neutral pass rate. Sad!

Mike Evans

11.4 (WR34)

14.9 (WR28)

Slow, run-heavy OFF so far.

Brandon Aiyuk

11.3 (WR35)

12.6 (WR39)

90% routes & 18.6 xFPs in Week 3.

Adam Thielen

11.3 (WR36)

15.8 (WR25)

46% air yards share is 3rd. WR2+.

Cooper Kupp

11.3 (WR37)

16.2 (WR24)

LA is last in neutral pass rate. Sad!

Mike Williams

11.3 (WR38)

7.2 (WR83)

Removed Week 3 (hamstring).

DK Metcalf

11.1 (WR39)

19.9 (WR8)

Efficiency outlier. Upside WR2.

Adam Humphries

11.1 (WR40)

11.5 (WR45)

9.5 & 12.3 xFPs without AJB.

Golden Tate

10.7 (WR41)

9.2 (WR62)

Slot WR in a bad offense. PPR WR5.

Allen Lazard

10.6 (WR42)

17.4 (WR16)

xFPs: With Adams (8.6), w/o (14.3).

JuJu Smith-Schuster

10.5 (WR43)

17.0 (WR20)

17% target & 13% AY shares. Uh oh.

Braxton Berrios

10.3 (WR44)

17.2 (WR19)

13.4 & 7.3 xFPs without Crowder.

DeVante Parker

10.3 (WR45)

12.3 (WR41)

I'm confident Parker climbs in usage.

Greg Ward

10.2 (WR46)

10.1 (WR52)

19.2 Week 3 xFPs. No DG/JR/AJ?

KJ Hamler

10.2 (WR47)

7.3 (WR82)

94% Week 3 routes, mostly outside.

Corey Davis

10.1 (WR48)

13.9 (WR34)

18% target share despite no AJB.

DeSean Jackson

10.0 (WR49)

7.4 (WR79)

34yo hammy can't support 4.3 speed.

Brandin Cooks

9.9 (WR50)

7.9 (WR73)

7.7 & 7.6 xFPs with healthy Fuller.

Courtland Sutton

9.9 (WR51)

9.6 (WR56)

Out for season (ACL).

Danny Amendola

9.9 (WR52)

6.7 (WR87)

Low aDOT & 3rd/4th in target tree.

Sterling Shepard

9.9 (WR53)

10.7 (WR48)

Removed Weeks 2-3. IR.

Michael Gallup

9.9 (WR54)

13.9 (WR34)

Efficiency outlier. Boom-bust WR3.

Marvin Jones

9.9 (WR55)

10.0 (WR53)

6.7 aDOT will increase. Flex play.

Marquise Brown

9.8 (WR56)

9.2 (WR60)

Needs outlier efficiency to be WR3/4.

Preston Williams

9.7 (WR57)

6.1 (WR90)

Hurt by CB matchups + game script.

Tee Higgins

9.7 (WR58)

9.2 (WR61)

83% routes & 18.9 xFPs in Week 3.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling

9.7 (WR59)

10.2 (WR50)

This is without DA playing 1.5 games.

Curtis Samuel

9.4 (WR60)

8.1 (WR72)

Runs don't make up for 13% targets.

Emmanuel Sanders

9.4 (WR61)

9.6 (WR55)

4.9 & 9.1 xFPs without Thomas.

Chris Conley

9.4 (WR62)

5.6 (WR93)

Tilted faces on TNF because drops.

Keelan Cole

9.4 (WR63)

13.9 (WR33)

34 air yards P/G keep him off radar.

Anthony Miller

9.2 (WR64)

13.1 (WR37)

12% target share but 17.8 aDOT.

Michael Thomas

9.1 (WR65)

4.7 (WR106)

Removed Weeks 2-3. Returning?

Kendrick Bourne

9.0 (WR66)

8.8 (WR66)

Kittle + Deebo returning soon.

T.Y. Hilton

8.9 (WR67)

7.8 (WR75)

18% target share. IND avg. 32 PaAtt.

Laviska Shenault

8.8 (WR68)

10.8 (WR47)

13% target share should tick up.

Dontrelle Inman

8.7 (WR69)

8.9 (WR65)

WAS No. 2 WR, which is something!

Hunter Renfrow

8.5 (WR70)

10.4 (WR49)

xFPs: With Ruggs 4.5, without 16.2.

Justin Jefferson

8.3 (WR71)

14.2 (WR31)

91% routes & 13.5 xFPs in Week 3.

James Washington

8.2 (WR72)

8.4 (WR69)

Week 3 routes: CC (35), JW (29).

Chris Hogan

8.2 (WR73)

4.8 (WR104)

11.6 & 4.7 xFPs without Crowder.

Tre'Quan Smith

8.1 (WR74)

7.7 (WR78)

12.8 & 10.2 xFPs without Thomas.

Quintez Cephus

8.1 (WR75)

5.2 (WR99)

Thankfully Golladay is back.

Lawrence Cager

7.9 (WR76)

5.5 (WR94)

 

Tim Patrick

7.8 (WR77)

8.5 (WR68)

 

Randall Cobb

7.7 (WR78)

11.6 (WR44)

Week 3: 7.9 xFPs, 19.5 FPs. Ignore.

Scotty Miller

7.6 (WR79)

9.1 (WR63)

 

Isaiah Ford

7.6 (WR80)

7.1 (WR84)

 

Michael Pittman

7.4 (WR81)

5.4 (WR98)

Injured. Pascal becomes No. 2 WR.

Zach Pascal

7.3 (WR82)

6.7 (WR86)

Campbell + Pittman are injured.

Larry Fitzgerald

7.2 (WR83)

6.8 (WR85)

An old slot WR? In this economy?

Deontay Burnett

7.1 (WR84)

4.9 (WR102)

 

Christian Kirk

7.1 (WR85)

4.5 (WR109)

7.7 & 6.5 xFPs in two healthy games.

Breshad Perriman

6.8 (WR86)

4.7 (WR106)

Removed Weeks 2-3.

Jarvis Landry

6.7 (WR87)

8.8 (WR67)

16% AY share. CLE 31st in PaAtts.

Jalen Reagor

6.6 (WR88)

7.3 (WR81)

Possibly out months, not weeks.

Henry Ruggs

6.6 (WR89)

5.5 (WR94)

Low usage in 6 QTs since leg injury.

Demarcus Robinson

6.5 (WR90)

3.6 (WR120)

Shouldn’t play a single snap over MH.

Miles Boykin

6.2 (WR91)

5.4 (WR96)

Way too raw to make up for 0 volume.

Damiere Byrd

6.0 (WR92)

6.3 (WR89)

 

Darnell Mooney

6.0 (WR93)

7.8 (WR76)

Snaps are there. Targets aren't.

D.J. Chark

6.0 (WR94)

12.0 (WR43)

Hopefully low usage is injury related.

Trent Taylor

5.8 (WR95)

2.9 (WR127)

 

John Ross

5.4 (WR96)

1.9 (WR136)

Week 3 healthy scratch after drops.

Mike Thomas

5.2 (WR97)

6.6 (WR88)

Known as "Bad Mike Thomas"

Willie Snead

5.1 (WR98)

7.9 (WR74)

 

Gabriel Davis

5.1 (WR99)

7.8 (WR76)

Deep sleeper if Brown misses time.

Van Jefferson

5.0 (WR100)

4.2 (WR115)

Well behind Reynolds still.

Chase Claypool

4.9 (WR101)

9.3 (WR58)

Week 3 routes: CC (35), JW (29).

Mecole Hardman

4.7 (WR102)

8.3 (WR70)

Needs more snaps to be flex option.

Isaiah Wright

4.7 (WR103)

3.5 (WR123)

 

Kenny Stills

4.7 (WR104)

3.4 (WR124)

 

Steven Sims

4.6 (WR105)

5.4 (WR96)

 

David Moore

4.6 (WR106)

7.3 (WR80)

 

Deonte Harris

4.5 (WR107)

4.2 (WR115)

 

Auden Tate

4.5 (WR108)

2.5 (WR130)

Active over John Ross in Week 3.

Josh Reynolds

4.4 (WR109)

6.0 (WR91)

 

Isaiah McKenzie

4.2 (WR110)

4.5 (WR110)

 

Andy Isabella

4.2 (WR111)

9.6 (WR56)

4th in Wk 3 WR routes in AZ. Why?

Collin Johnson

4.2 (WR112)

1.2 (WR146)

 

John Hightower

4.1 (WR113)

1.6 (WR140)

 

Cordarrelle Patterson

4.0 (WR114)

3.6 (WR122)

 

Cedrick Wilson

4.0 (WR115)

9.2 (WR59)

Spiked for 11.9 xFPs while chasing.

 

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Fantasy Usage Model - TEs

Average fantasy usage and PPR data from Weeks 1-3. I removed injuries. "xFPs" are expected fantasy points (aka "Fantasy Usage").

Player

Fantasy Usage

Actual PPR

Context

Darren Waller

15.8 (TE1)

13.9 (TE6)

28% target share + elite skills.

Logan Thomas

15.0 (TE2)

9.1 (TE20)

-5.8 PPR Over Expected is lowest.

Travis Kelce

14.8 (TE3)

18.6 (TE1)

Producing like a 1st round asset.

Dallas Goedert

14.3 (TE4)

15.6 (TE3)

Removed Week 3 (ankle). Out weeks.

Zach Ertz

14.2 (TE5)

11.3 (TE15)

17.4 xFPs in Week 3 w/o Goedert.

Mike Gesicki

13.0 (TE6)

13.8 (TE7)

Athletic big slot with 30% AY share.

Jimmy Graham

13.0 (TE7)

12.8 (TE9)

xFPs: 15.1 to 1.5 to 22.4. Foles helps.

Jonnu Smith

12.7 (TE8)

16.4 (TE2)

Major athlete. 19% target share.

Hunter Henry

12.4 (TE9)

12.2 (TE10)

20% target share. LAC wants to run.

Noah Fant

12.2 (TE10)

14.8 (TE4)

103 routes are top-10. Stud in bad O.

Mark Andrews

12.1 (TE11)

10.6 (TE17)

Drops are mostly random. Strong TE1.

Dalton Schultz

11.5 (TE12)

11.6 (TE12)

16.6 & 9.9 xFPs w/o Jarwin. Slow.

Evan Engram

11.5 (TE13)

6.9 (TE27)

2nd in TE routes (116). Bad offense.

Jordan Reed

10.4 (TE14)

10.5 (TE18)

Looked really good before injury.

C.J. Uzomah

10.3 (TE15)

11.4 (TE14)

Out for season (Achilles).

T.J. Hockenson

9.3 (TE16)

12.0 (TE11)

TE2 usage despite Golladay missing.

Hayden Hurst

9.2 (TE17)

10.7 (TE16)

5th among TEs in routes run (104).

Jared Cook

8.7 (TE18)

8.8 (TE22)

Left Week 3 (groin). 5.0 targets P/G.

Chris Herndon

8.3 (TE19)

5.4 (TE30)

18% target share. Pathetic offense.

Eric Ebron

8.2 (TE20)

8.8 (TE23)

13% target share. TE2. Needs TDs.

David Njoku

7.5 (TE21)

14.0 (TE5)

On injured reserve (knee).

O.J. Howard

7.1 (TE22)

7.9 (TE24)

More usage, fewer routes than Gronk.

Mo Alie-Cox

7.1 (TE23)

11.4 (TE13)

30% Week 3 routes with Doyle back.

Tyler Higbee

6.9 (TE24)

13.8 (TE8)

TDs have masked TE2 usage.

Drew Sample

6.8 (TE25)

4.8 (TE35)

63% routes led to 1.3 xFPs Week 3.

Tyler Eifert

6.5 (TE26)

5.8 (TE29)

9% target share in iffy offense.

Rob Gronkowski

6.4 (TE27)

4.6 (TE38)

Ran a route on 55% of dropbacks.

Greg Olsen

6.3 (TE28)

7.8 (TE25)

26 air yards P/G. TD dependent TE3.

Jordan Akins

6.0 (TE29)

9.7 (TE19)

Routes run: Akins (99), Fells (30).

Dawson Knox

5.9 (TE30)

4.7 (TE37)

Missed Week 3 (concussion).

Austin Hooper

5.6 (TE31)

4.4 (TE40)

8.0 xFPs in Week 2 are his highest.

Robert Tonyan

5.3 (TE32)

8.8 (TE21)

60% routes as the clear GB TE1.

Darren Fells

4.9 (TE33)

4.7 (TE36)

Definition of TD dependent. 30 routes.

Ross Dwelley

4.8 (TE34)

5.2 (TE31)

 

Tyler Kroft

4.7 (TE35)

6.1 (TE28)

 

James O'Shaughnessy

4.6 (TE36)

5.0 (TE33)

 

Kaden Smith

4.5 (TE37)

2.6 (TE52)

 

Dan Arnold

4.3 (TE38)

3.6 (TE46)

Air raid not built for TEs.

Jack Doyle

4.0 (TE39)

4.0 (TE42)

No targets despite 59% Wk 3 routes.

Harrison Bryant

4.0 (TE40)

3.7 (TE44)

 

 

Fantasy Usage Model - RBs

Average fantasy usage and PPR data from Weeks 1-3. I removed injuries and some weeks to reflect current usage but noted all changes in context. "xFPs" are expected fantasy points (aka "Fantasy Usage").

Player

Fantasy Usage

Actual PPR

Context

Ezekiel Elliott

27.7 (RB1)

23.2 (RB4)

Leader in inside-the-10 carries (12).

Alvin Kamara

26.3 (RB2)

35.6 (RB1)

30% target share is 1st among RBs.

Aaron Jones

26.2 (RB3)

26.6 (RB3)

23.9+ expected FPs in all 3 games.

Derrick Henry

24.1 (RB4)

17.2 (RB14)

-6.9 PPR Over Expected P/G is last.

Miles Sanders

23.7 (RB5)

18.4 (RB12)

22.7 & 24.8 expected FPs in 2 gms.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire

22.9 (RB6)

17.1 (RB15)

Receptions: 0 to 6 to 5. Upside RB1.

Christian McCaffrey

22.8 (RB7)

26.7 (RB2)

Missed Week 3. Davis had his role.

Josh Jacobs

21.6 (RB8)

20.2 (RB8)

Elite runner, still only 44% routes.

Mike Davis

21.0 (RB9)

19.3 (RB10)

Only includes last 2 weeks. CMC role.

Myles Gaskin

17.3 (RB10)

13.1 (RB24)

xFPs: 9.7 to 15.3 to 26.8. Bad OFF.

Jonathan Taylor

17.2 (RB11)

15.7 (RB18)

Didn't play 4th QT. Jets were too bad.

James Conner

16.9 (RB12)

16.2 (RB17)

Snaps includes injury: JC 118, BS 54.

Austin Ekeler

16.7 (RB13)

19.9 (RB9)

Better in negative game script.

Raheem Mostert

16.3 (RB14)

21.9 (RB5)

Removed Weeks 2-3 (knee).

Devin Singletary

16.0 (RB15)

12.0 (RB27)

xFPs: With Moss (14.1), w/o (19.7).

Todd Gurley

16.0 (RB16)

11.7 (RB28)

Only 3 avoided tackles on 52 opps.

Kareem Hunt

15.5 (RB17)

16.9 (RB16)

Boom-bust RB2/3. Needs game flow.

Melvin Gordon

15.1 (RB18)

13.9 (RB21)

Workhorse role but stuck in bad O.

Chris Carson

15.0 (RB19)

18.3 (RB13)

On RB1/2 border if healthy (knee).

Dalvin Cook

14.4 (RB20)

20.3 (RB7)

Workhorse in offense last in plays.

Rex Burkhead

14.4 (RB21)

15.6 (RB19)

13.6 & 26.3 xFPs without White.

Joe Mixon

14.3 (RB22)

9.4 (RB37)

Needs positive game script.

Kenyan Drake

14.2 (RB23)

11.6 (RB29)

49% routes in 2020 holds him back.

James Robinson

13.8 (RB24)

20.6 (RB6)

14.3 carries P/G + 10% target share.

Zack Moss

13.8 (RB25)

7.7 (RB46)

Allen will get in the way of short TDs.

Ronald Jones

13.6 (RB26)

10.1 (RB35)

More routes/carries than LF in Wk 3.

Nick Chubb

13.3 (RB27)

19.3 (RB10)

Touch share: Lead 37%, trailing 23%.

Nyheim Hines

13.0 (RB28)

12.9 (RB25)

xFPs: 23.1 to 1.4 to 14.4. Labile RB3.

Joshua Kelley

12.7 (RB29)

10.8 (RB34)

Needs positive game script.

Darrell Henderson

12.7 (RB30)

13.2 (RB22)

Pure runner. LA 1st in neutral run %.

David Montgomery

12.7 (RB31)

12.5 (RB26)

Cohen leaves behind 18 routes P/G.

David Johnson

11.8 (RB32)

13.2 (RB23)

High snaps, but low-value touches.

Jerick McKinnon

11.7 (RB33)

14.6 (RB20)

xFPs: With Mostert (9.4), w/o (16.2).

Malcolm Brown

11.5 (RB34)

10.9 (RB33)

More routes than Hendo Week 3.

Adrian Peterson

10.7 (RB35)

9.3 (RB38)

Snaps: AP 78, Swift 60, Kerryon 59

Antonio Gibson

10.3 (RB36)

11.2 (RB31)

Wk 3 routes: McKissic 25, Gibson 14.

Leonard Fournette

10.1 (RB37)

11.6 (RB30)

Wk 3 snaps: RoJo (35), Lenny (25).

Giovani Bernard

9.6 (RB38)

7.6 (RB47)

Gio is ruining the potential Mixon fun.

Cam Akers

9.3 (RB39)

5.3 (RB59)

Hendo rusher, Brown blocker. Akers?

Latavius Murray

8.9 (RB40)

5.9 (RB53)

Inside-10 carries: Kamara 7, LM 4.

Chase Edmonds

8.9 (RB41)

7.7 (RB44)

49-of-76 2020 snaps are routes run.

Frank Gore

8.7 (RB42)

5.3 (RB59)

You aren't winning if Gore is starting.

Mark Ingram

8.7 (RB43)

7.2 (RB48)

Oldest member of 3-back committee.

Jeff Wilson

8.5 (RB44)

11.1 (RB32)

16.1 xFPs in Wk 3. Short-term RB3.

Jamaal Williams

8.4 (RB45)

5.7 (RB57)

 

J.D. McKissic

8.3 (RB46)

4.8 (RB64)

 

Tevin Coleman

8.3 (RB47)

4.7 (RB65)

Injured.

D'Andre Swift

8.2 (RB48)

8.8 (RB40)

6 snaps in Week 3. Yikes.

Peyton Barber

8.1 (RB49)

5.2 (RB61)

 

Phillip Lindsay

8.0 (RB50)

4.5 (RB66)

Missed Weeks 2-3 (toe).

Tarik Cohen

7.9 (RB51)

5.8 (RB54)

Out for season (ACL).

Jordan Howard

7.7 (RB52)

6.4 (RB50)

8-of-16 carries from inside-the-10.

James White

7.5 (RB53)

8.2 (RB42)

Missed Weeks 2-3 (personal).

Chris Thompson

7.0 (RB54)

7.7 (RB45)

Not even playable in negative script.

Dion Lewis

7.0 (RB55)

5.9 (RB52)

Week 3 snaps: DL 20, WG 18, DF 15.

LeSean McCoy

6.8 (RB56)

4.2 (RB70)

 

Alexander Mattison

6.7 (RB57)

5.8 (RB55)

No standalone value. Stud stash tho.

Sony Michel

6.6 (RB58)

9.2 (RB39)

3rd in inside-the-10 carries for NE.

Benny Snell

6.3 (RB59)

4.5 (RB66)

No standalone value. OK insurance.

Marlon Mack

6.2 (RB60)

8.6 (RB41)

Out for season.

Kerryon Johnson

5.9 (RB61)

4.9 (RB63)

Snaps: AP 78, Swift 60, Kerryon 59

Boston Scott

5.8 (RB62)

5.1 (RB62)

No standalone value. OK insurance.

J.K. Dobbins

5.8 (RB63)

9.9 (RB36)

Passing-down role in 3-back committee.

Anthony McFarland

5.6 (RB64)

5.9 (RB51)

 

Brian Hill

5.6 (RB65)

7.8 (RB43)

Week 3 snaps: Gurley 35, Hill 23.

 


Top 5 Rebound Candidates of Week 4

1. D.J. Moore: The WR38 per-game through three weeks, Moore seems like someone who is on path to bust at his third-round ADP, but I think he turns things around. He averaged 19.3 expected fantasy points in the first two games, and then fell victim to game script in Week 3 when the Panthers jumped to a first half lead vs. the Chargers. Moore’s 48% team air yards share is the second highest in the NFL, a sign that he’s in store for bigger days once Carolina gets back to passing at near league-high levels. That will be the case at home against the fast-paced Cardinals.

2. Jerry Jeudy: It won’t be pretty with a complete unknown at quarterback (Brett Rypien), but Jeudy has had the fantasy usage (WR26) through the first three weeks to fire him up as a flex play. He’s lining up in the slot more than rookie WR KJ Hamler and had 15.5 expected fantasy points last week despite his 10.5 PPR box score. With the Jets looking to get their head coach fired, Jeudy has some breakout appeal, assuming he’s going to limit those drops.

3. Julian Edelman: The offense has been run-heavy in two games but went into dropback mode while chasing points in Seattle. A similar game script is in store with the Chiefs scheduled for Sunday. Edelman has a 28% target share and an NFL-high 55% air yards share through three weeks, meaning he’s the dude in the receiving game when New England is forced into that script. Edelman has upside WR2/3 appeal here. His production will be more volatile week-to-week than it has been in recent seasons.

4. Mark Andrews: A few horrendous drops and off-target throws ruined Andrews on Monday night. That was as bad as it gets for a QB-TE duo that’s typically at the top of their games. We should expect Andrews to beat my model’s TE11 fantasy usage expectation because he and Lamar are usually really on fire. Andrews’ 29% target share keeps him inside the top-five in rest of season tight end rankings. Speaking of those, Subscribe to Rotoworld EDGE+ here to unlock them (updated Wednesday) for only $3.99 per month. Use promo code: WINKS10 for 10% off. 

5. Logan Thomas: When I built The Fantasy Usage Model, I knew there would be players that we could confidently project to perform better or worse than my model’s expectations. We can chalk it up to player skill, quarterback play, or injuries. One of those players this season is Thomas, who is the TE2 in fantasy usage (15.0 expected fantasy points) but the TE20 in PPR production (9.1 expected fantasy points). Thomas won’t live up to top-5 production, but he can meet TE1/2 expectations still. I’d hold for two more weeks with the position looking bad due to injuries.

 


Air Yards & Targets

Average usage from Weeks 1-3, sorted by air yards per game. Minimum 2 games and 25 air yards per game. Air yards and target shares are averages of each player’s share in games they received a target or carry, so a player who played but didn’t show up in box score needs to be filtered. I’ll work on this bug later. If you want week-by-week air yards and target totals, visit this Google Sheet.

Player

Week 3 AY

Avg. AY

AY Share

Avg. Targets

Target Share

Calvin Ridley

249

187

44%

11.7

28%

Julio Jones

NA

132

28%

8.0

16%

A.J. Green

45

128

33%

9.3

20%

DK Metcalf

170

126

44%

7.3

21%

Adam Thielen

89

126

46%

7.3

28%

Keenan Allen

157

120

40%

12.7

33%

Amari Cooper

117

117

32%

11.7

25%

D.J. Moore

79

117

49%

8.7

24%

DeSean Jackson

64

115

28%

6.7

15%

Allen Robinson

106

113

32%

10.3

27%

Tee Higgins

150

110

26%

7.5

15%

Michael Gallup

140

106

28%

6.3

13%

Marquez Valdes-Scantling

98

104

33%

5.7

16%

Julian Edelman

72

102

55%

8.0

28%

Odell Beckham

96

100

42%

7.3

26%

Jerry Jeudy

82

95

28%

8.0

22%

John Brown

65

95

30%

6.0

15%

Stefon Diggs

42

94

28%

9.3

25%

Will Fuller

59

94

33%

7.5

25%

Davante Adams

NA

92

25%

10.0

24%

Tyler Lockett

129

92

32%

9.7

28%

Christian Kirk

NA

90

34%

5.0

13%

Darius Slayton

92

88

35%

7.3

20%

Terry McLaurin

82

87

34%

8.3

25%

Anthony Miller

103

83

22%

4.7

12%

DeAndre Hopkins

103

81

32%

12.3

32%

Marquise Brown

85

81

33%

6.0

23%

KJ Hamler

45

81

20%

6.0

15%

T.Y. Hilton

37

78

34%

5.7

17%

Quintez Cephus

NA

76

22%

6.5

17%

Jalen Reagor

NA

76

16%

4.0

9%

Zach Ertz

111

75

21%

8.0

18%

Mike Williams

15

75

24%

4.7

15%

Scotty Miller

135

74

25%

4.7

13%

Mike Gesicki

44

73

29%

6.3

18%

Brandin Cooks

48

73

26%

6.0

19%

Henry Ruggs

NA

73

38%

4.0

12%

Tyler Boyd

137

72

19%

8.7

19%

Chris Conley

160

72

21%

5.3

13%

Diontae Johnson

69

71

28%

8.3

23%

Allen Lazard

106

70

23%

5.7

17%

Mark Andrews

107

69

29%

5.7

21%

Robby Anderson

24

68

26%

8.0

23%

Kendrick Bourne

66

66

36%

5.3

17%

Hunter Henry

48

66

21%

7.7

21%

Logan Thomas

56

63

25%

8.0

24%

Tyreek Hill

90

62

30%

7.7

19%

Tim Patrick

35

62

17%

4.7

13%

DeVante Parker

65

61

27%

6.0

19%

Danny Amendola

37

61

24%

6.0

17%

Noah Fant

76

61

19%

7.0

19%

Justin Jefferson

128

60

24%

5.0

19%

Corey Davis

42

60

23%

6.3

19%

Kalif Raymond

97

60

17%

2.5

6%

Ted Ginn

97

57

11%

2.0

4%

Cole Beasley

74

57

18%

6.7

18%

Russell Gage

24

56

13%

8.0

18%

Olamide Zaccheaus

104

56

13%

3.5

9%

Dontrelle Inman

60

56

22%

5.3

16%

CeeDee Lamb

65

55

15%

7.0

15%

Travis Kelce

44

55

24%

9.0

22%

Chris Hogan

62

55

30%

5.0

16%

Preston Williams

7

55

21%

4.7

14%

Darren Waller

29

55

23%

9.3

27%

Adam Humphries

71

55

21%

6.7

20%

Darnell Mooney

105

54

13%

4.0

10%

Chris Godwin

41

54

18%

6.5

18%

Mike Evans

22

52

20%

6.0

17%

Damiere Byrd

10

52

17%

6.0

16%

O.J. Howard

52

50

18%

4.3

12%

Jared Cook

31

50

30%

5.0

15%

Andy Isabella

40

49

14%

3.0

8%

Eric Ebron

58

49

19%

4.7

13%

Hunter Renfrow

112

48

19%

4.7

14%

C.J. Uzomah

NA

47

13%

5.5

12%

James Washington

68

47

18%

5.0

14%

N'Keal Harry

39

46

25%

7.3

24%

Sammy Watkins

56

45

24%

6.7

18%

Michael Thomas

NA

45

29%

5.0

16%

Marvin Hall

NA

45

14%

2.0

6%

Braxton Berrios

43

45

28%

6.0

19%

Jonnu Smith

86

44

15%

6.7

20%

Chase Claypool

59

44

17%

3.0

8%

D.J. Chark

NA

44

18%

3.5

12%

John Ross

NA

42

13%

3.5

9%

Dallas Goedert

1

41

11%

6.0

14%

Golden Tate

42

41

15%

6.0

17%

DaeSean Hamilton

NA

41

13%

3.0

8%

Jarvis Landry

23

40

15%

4.3

15%

Steven Sims

NA

40

14%

4.5

14%

Bisi Johnson

NA

40

14%

3.5

14%

Randall Cobb

71

39

14%

4.3

14%

Cooper Kupp

72

39

21%

7.0

23%

Laviska Shenault

36

39

21%

4.7

14%

Marvin Jones

35

38

13%

5.7

16%

Jimmy Graham

63

38

9%

6.0

14%

Kenny Stills

61

38

13%

3.0

10%

Sterling Shepard

NA

38

15%

5.0

12%

Miles Sanders

50

38

11%

7.5

17%

Van Jefferson

10

37

22%

3.0

10%

Isaiah Ford

13

37

14%

5.3

15%

Tre'Quan Smith

40

37

21%

4.7

13%

Evan Engram

32

37

14%

6.7

18%

Zach Pascal

58

36

20%

3.7

13%

Hayden Hurst

11

36

9%

5.3

13%

Dalton Schultz

51

36

9%

6.7

14%

T.J. Hockenson

67

36

15%

5.3

16%

Tyler Eifert

18

36

10%

3.3

8%

Emmanuel Sanders

61

36

22%

4.3

13%

KhaDarel Hodge

37

35

15%

2.0

7%

Mo Alie-Cox

21

35

17%

3.7

13%

Keelan Cole

36

34

18%

5.7

17%

JuJu Smith-Schuster

43

34

13%

6.3

17%

Greg Ward

60

33

8%

6.3

14%

Tyler Higbee

21

32

17%

3.7

13%

Robert Woods

16

31

16%

6.3

21%

Jalen Guyton

60

31

10%

2.0

5%

Demarcus Robinson

20

31

17%

3.7

10%

Curtis Samuel

15

31

13%

4.7

14%

Miles Boykin

39

31

13%

3.7

14%

Josh Reynolds

67

31

16%

2.7

9%

C.J. Board

55

31

11%

2.3

6%

Robert Tonyan

12

30

11%

4.0

13%

Jordan Reed

56

29

15%

5.3

17%

Dan Arnold

28

29

9%

2.7

7%

Justin Watson

NA

29

12%

2.5

7%

Chris Herndon

24

29

14%

5.3

17%

John Hightower

25

29

7%

3.5

8%

Rob Gronkowski

41

27

9%

3.7

10%

Brandon Aiyuk

60

27

9%

5.5

17%

Greg Olsen

53

26

8%

3.7

10%

Aaron Jones

13

26

9%

6.0

18%

Noah Brown

29

26

6%

2.0

4%

Gabriel Davis

61

25

8%

2.3

6%

Dawson Knox

NA

25

7%

3.0

7%

 


Carries & Game Script

Average usage from Weeks 1-3, sorted by carries per game. Minimum 2 games and 4.0 carries per game. “Touch % (Lead)” is a player’s share of team touches while his team is leading. I removed touch shares if a team has fewer than 25 plays in a game script or if a player missed a game. 

Player

Carries

Inside 10

Touch % (Lead)

Touch % (Trail)

Games

Derrick Henry

27.3

3.3

42%

47%

3

Josh Jacobs

22.7

2.7

62%

39%

3

Christian McCaffrey

20.5

3.5

NA

NA

2

Ezekiel Elliott

19.3

4.0

NA

37%

3

Miles Sanders

19.0

2.0

NA

NA

2

Clyde Edwards-Helaire

18.3

2.7

42%

24%

3

Kenyan Drake

18.0

1.0

38%

25%

3

Joe Mixon

17.0

0.7

43%

22%

3

Nick Chubb

17.0

1.7

37%

25%

3

Aaron Jones

16.7

2.3

35%

34%

3

Todd Gurley

16.3

2.0

28%

21%

3

Dalvin Cook

16.0

1.7

43%

37%

3

Jonathan Taylor

16.0

2.0

26%

48%

3

Austin Ekeler

15.7

0.3

25%

33%

3

Adrian Peterson

14.3

0.7

29%

22%

3

David Montgomery

14.3

0.3

31%

25%

3

Joshua Kelley

14.3

2.0

34%

16%

3

James Robinson

14.3

0.7

NA

30%

3

Frank Gore

14.0

0.3

NA

27%

3

Melvin Gordon

14.0

0.7

NA

30%

3

James Conner

13.3

2.0

20%

32%

3

Kareem Hunt

13.0

1.7

34%

27%

3

Myles Gaskin

12.7

1.7

43%

24%

3

Chris Carson

12.3

1.3

29%

34%

3

Ronald Jones

12.3

1.7

21%

24%

3

Malcolm Brown

12.0

2.0

24%

18%

3

Cam Newton

11.7

3.0

23%

14%

3

Darrell Henderson

11.7

2.3

18%

28%

3

David Johnson

11.7

0.3

44%

26%

3

Raheem Mostert

11.5

0.5

NA

NA

2

Devin Singletary

10.7

1.0

24%

NA

3

Lamar Jackson

10.7

0.7

17%

18%

3

Antonio Gibson

10.3

0.7

NA

24%

3

Alvin Kamara

10.3

2.3

34%

38%

3

Latavius Murray

10.0

1.3

23%

17%

3

Benny Snell

9.7

0.3

23%

12%

3

Saquon Barkley

9.5

0.5

NA

NA

2

Jordan Wilkins

9.0

0.0

NA

NA

2

Tevin Coleman

9.0

0.5

NA

NA

2

Kyler Murray

8.7

0.7

12%

14%

3

Mark Ingram

8.7

0.7

18%

13%

3

Sony Michel

8.7

0.7

18%

0%

3

Cam Akers

8.5

1.0

NA

NA

2

Zack Moss

8.5

2.0

NA

NA

2

Leonard Fournette

8.0

0.7

25%

13%

3

Josh Allen

7.3

1.3

13%

NA

3

Jamaal Williams

7.0

1.0

12%

13%

3

Jeff Wilson

7.0

0.5

NA

NA

2

Mike Davis

7.0

1.0

NA

NA

2

Peyton Barber

7.0

2.3

NA

8%

3

Jerick McKinnon

6.7

1.0

16%

NA

3

Rex Burkhead

6.3

1.3

15%

10%

3

Gus Edwards

6.0

0.3

14%

10%

3

Kerryon Johnson

6.0

1.0

17%

3%

3

Alexander Mattison

5.7

0.7

16%

17%

3

Boston Scott

5.3

0.0

16%

10%

3

Carlos Hyde

5.3

0.3

10%

15%

3

Joe Burrow

5.3

0.7

5%

9%

3

Jordan Howard

5.3

2.7

7%

6%

3

J.D. McKissic

5.3

0.3

NA

15%

3

JJ Taylor

5.3

0.3

12%

10%

3

Brian Hill

5.0

0.0

14%

8%

3

Cordarrelle Patterson

5.0

0.3

12%

5%

3

Lamical Perine

5.0

0.0

NA

NA

2

Matt Breida

5.0

0.0

7%

13%

3

Patrick Mahomes

5.0

0.5

NA

NA

2

Ryan Fitzpatrick

5.0

1.3

18%

7%

3

Dak Prescott

4.7

1.0

NA

7%

3

Nyheim Hines

4.7

1.0

13%

6%

3

Russell Wilson

4.7

0.0

8%

6%

3

Tarik Cohen

4.7

0.0

7%

13%

3

Corey Clement

4.5

0.0

NA

NA

2

Jared Goff

4.3

0.7

10%

4%

3

Chase Edmonds

4.0

0.0

9%

14%

3

Carson Wentz

4.0

1.0

2%

4%

3

Daniel Jones

4.0

0.0

NA

9%

3

Dion Lewis

4.0

0.3

NA

15%

3

Deshaun Watson

4.0

0.3

4%

9%

3

Gardner Minshew

4.0

0.0

NA

7%

3

 


Garbage Time

Percentage of a player’s touches that came when @nflfastR’s in-game winning percentage was less than 10% or greater than 90%. This is when backups enter the game, but it’s not always a bad thing. Use your judgement. Minimum 10 touches and 25% “Garbage Rate”.

Player

Garbage Rate

Garbage Touches

Total Touches

Jeff Wilson

71%

12

17

Jordan Wilkins

68%

13

19

Lamical Perine

67%

8

12

Jamison Crowder

62%

8

13

Chris Herndon

56%

9

16

Braxton Berrios

50%

6

12

Deshaun Watson

50%

6

12

Chris Hogan

47%

7

15

Jared Goff

46%

6

13

Ben Roethlisberger

45%

5

11

Drew Sample

45%

5

11

Gus Edwards

44%

8

18

Kareem Hunt

44%

22

50

Peyton Barber

43%

9

21

Zack Moss

41%

9

22

Emmanuel Sanders

38%

5

13

O.J. Howard

38%

5

13

Will Fuller

38%

6

16

Christian Kirk

36%

4

11

Dwayne Haskins

36%

4

11

Josh Allen

36%

8

22

Tevin Coleman

36%

8

22

Randall Cobb

36%

5

14

Cole Beasley

35%

7

20

D'Andre Swift

35%

7

20

J.K. Dobbins

33%

5

15

Chris Conley

31%

5

16

Chris Thompson

31%

5

16

Lamar Jackson

31%

10

32

Clyde Edwards-Helaire

31%

22

71

Marquez Valdes-Scantling

29%

5

17

Ryan Fitzpatrick

29%

5

17

Logan Thomas

29%

7

24

Kenyan Drake

29%

17

59

Brandon Aiyuk

29%

4

14

Darrel Williams

29%

4

14

Hunter Renfrow

29%

4

14

J.D. McKissic

28%

7

25

Ito Smith

27%

3

11

Terry McLaurin

27%

7

26

Mark Ingram

27%

8

30

Calvin Ridley

26%

10

38

Alexander Mattison

26%

6

23

Darnell Mooney

25%

3

12

Jordan Akins

25%

3

12

Kendrick Bourne

25%

4

16

Michael Pittman

25%

3

12

 

Come back on Thursday for "The Fantasy Blueprint", my weekly fantasy football preview column.