Loading scores...
Fantasy Usage Model

High Value RB Touches: Bucs Backfield Is Split

by Hayden Winks
Updated On: October 27, 2020, 2:18 am ET

Opportunity matters more than talent in fantasy football, but not all touches are created equal. We have to go beyond just "carries" to analyze how a player is being involved, especially at running back where players are used in all kinds of ways. "High Value RB Touches & Game Script" will break down which running backs are being used optimally and which running backs are only seeing low-value touches.

 


Week 7 Situational RB Touches

One way to look at how running backs are used is by separating third-down touches from first- or second-down touches. Running backs with a percentage of third-down touches are typically pass-catching specialists. In a perfect world, running backs would have high touch totals in both situations. Those are shown below, as well as “Pass Situation Targets”. The goal with this metric is to find the running backs who play on obvious passing downs because we want bankable targets from our fantasy running backs. “Pass Situation Targets” include targets during two-minute drills, targets on 3rd- or 4th-and-long, or targets while clearly trailing (all while removing garbage time). If that’s too much to think about, it’s essentially the type of plays where you’re screaming at the TV because Giovani Bernard is playing over Joe Mixon. We’ve all been there.

Player Early Downs Third Down Passing Situation Targets
ARI Chase Edmonds 10 2 6
ARI Kenyan Drake 15 0 2
ATL Brian Hill 4 1 1
ATL Ito Smith 0 0 1
ATL Todd Gurley 24 2 0
BUF Devin Singletary 13 0 1
BUF Zack Moss 10 0 1
CAR Alex Armah 1 1 0
CAR Mike Davis 12 0 1
CAR Trenton Cannon 1 0 0
CHI David Montgomery 16 3 1
CIN Giovani Bernard 16 1 3
CIN Samaje Perine 2 0 0
CLE D'Ernest Johnson 1 0 0
CLE Kareem Hunt 22 0 0
DAL Ezekiel Elliott 13 1 0
DAL Tony Pollard 9 0 0
DEN Melvin Gordon 18 3 2
DEN Phillip Lindsay 9 0 0
DEN Royce Freeman 4 1 1
DET Adrian Peterson 11 0 0
DET D'Andre Swift 14 0 0
GB AJ Dillon 5 0 0
GB Jamaal Williams 23 1 0
HOU David Johnson 18 0 0
HOU Duke Johnson 4 2 1
JAX James Robinson 21 6 5
KC Clyde Edwards-Helaire 11 1 0
KC DeAndre Washington 3 1 0
KC Le'Veon Bell 6 0 0
LA Darrell Henderson 15 2 0
LA Malcolm Brown 8 3 0
LAC Gabe Nabers 0 1 0
LAC Joshua Kelley 14 3 1
LAC Justin Jackson 11 0 0
LAC Troymaine Pope 1 0 0
LV Alex Ingold 1 0 0
LV Devontae Booker 4 1 1
LV Jalen Richard 5 2 0
LV Josh Jacobs 14 0 1
NE Damien Harris 11 0 1
NE Jakob Johnson 1 0 1
NE James White 0 1 0
NE Rex Burkhead 8 0 0
NO Alvin Kamara 17 5 5
NO Latavius Murray 11 1 0
NYG Devonta Freeman 4 0 0
NYG Dion Lewis 3 0 0
NYG Wayne Gallman 15 0 0
NYJ Frank Gore 11 0 0
NYJ Lamical Perine 12 1 1
PHI Boston Scott 16 1 1
PHI Corey Clement 3 0 0
PHI Jason Huntley 3 0 0
PIT Anthony McFarland 2 0 0
PIT Benny Snell 1 1 0
PIT James Conner 23 2 0
PIT Jaylen Samuels 1 0 0
SEA Carlos Hyde 17 2 0
SEA Chris Carson 7 0 0
SEA DeeJay Dallas 2 1 1
SEA Travis Homer 3 0 0
SF JaMycal Hasty 10 0 0
SF Jeff Wilson 19 0 0
SF Jerick McKinnon 2 1 0
SF Kyle Juszczyk 5 1 0
TB Leonard Fournette 16 2 3
TB Ronald Jones 15 0 0
TEN Derrick Henry 21 1 2
TEN Jeremy McNichols 1 0 0
WAS Antonio Gibson 21 0 0
WAS J.D. McKissic 3 4 1
WAS Peyton Barber 7 3 0

 

Quick Analysis: Chase Edmonds was the passing-situation back already, but he'll move right into a near three-down role assuming Kenyan Drake misses time. ... Todd Gurley loses a few touches here and there, but he has a bellcow role as a serviceable RB1/2 in most matchups. ... Devin Singletary and Zack Moss split touches almost evenly on Sunday. With Josh Allen taking goal-line carries away, this could be real messy. ... Mike Davis had the bellcow role last week, but Christian McCaffrey should be back soon. Maybe Week 9. ... Giovani Bernard was the bellcow with Joe Mixon sidelined. He's questionable for Week 8 ahead of the Week 9 bye. ... Tony Pollard sprinkled more than normal in Week 7, although 67% of his touches were in garbage time. ... Melvin Gordon lost early-down work with Phillip Lindsay in Week 7, but MGIII was the one to play on third downs and in passing situations. ... D'Andre Swift has taken over as the 1A, but this is a committee still. ... Jamaal William had the bellcow role with Aaron Jones sidelined. ... David Johnson lost third-down and passing-situation touches to Duke Johnson but remains a workhorse. ... James Robinson led running backs in third-down touches in Week 7 with Jacksonville chasing points. He's a bellcow when Chris Thompson is out. ... Clyde Edwards-Helaire led the backfield over Le'Veon Bell, but that was an odd game with little offensive production for the entire offense. Touches are TBD. ... Joshua Kelley had more usage than Justin Jackson, including on third downs. ... Josh Jacobs is losing third-down snaps to two different backs. He needs positive game scripts. ... Damien Harris had the most touches but doesn't have an inside-the-10 touch and is below 1.0 target per game. Empty calories. ... Alvin Kamara has the best workload in fantasy. ... Wayne Gallman erupted following Devonta Freeman's injury. ... Lamical Perine's workload increased after Adam Gase relieved himself from play-calling duties. He's worthy of a pickup. ... Boston Scott is a workhorse when Miles Sanders is out. ... James Conner loses some goal-line work to Benny Snell, but he's a workhorse in a good offense. ... Carlos Hyde played the traditional Chris Carson role after the latter left with a foot sprain. ... JaMycal Hasty picked up things late after Jeff Wilson dominated touches early. Jerick McKinnon was essentially limited. Tevin Coleman may return Week 8, too. Tricky. ... Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones split touches, but high value touches leaned Fournette's way. Once again, all of Jones' touches were either on first- or second-down. ... Derrick Henry is a workhorse, obviously. ... Antonio Gibson ate in positive game script, but all 21 of his touches were on early downs. J.D. McKissic remains the third-down and passing-situation back. Gibson remains on the RB2/3 border until that changes.

 


Week 7 Garbage Time Eaters

Percentage of a player’s touches that came when @nflfastR’s in-game winning percentage was less than 10% or greater than 90%. This is when backups enter the game, but it’s not always a bad thing. Use your judgement. Minimum four touches and 50% “Garbage Rate”.

Player Garbage Rate Garbage Touch Total Touches
Deshaun Watson 86% 6 7
Jakobi Meyers 86% 6 7
Jalen Richard 86% 6 7
Duke Johnson 83% 5 6
Jimmy Graham 83% 5 6
JaMycal Hasty 80% 8 10
Brandin Cooks 78% 7 9
Rex Burkhead 75% 6 8
Albert Okwuegbunam 71% 5 7
Peyton Barber 70% 7 10
Tyreek Hill 70% 7 10
Clyde Edwards-Helaire 67% 8 12
Tony Pollard 67% 6 9
Damien Harris 64% 7 11
Terry McLaurin 64% 7 11
Jamaal Williams 63% 15 24
David Johnson 61% 11 18
Darrell Henderson 59% 10 17
Brandon Aiyuk 57% 4 7
J.D. McKissic 57% 4 7
CeeDee Lamb 50% 3 6
Ezekiel Elliott 50% 7 14
Kyle Juszczyk 50% 3 6
Le'Veon Bell 50% 3 6
Randall Cobb 50% 5 10

 

Editor’s Note: Unlock the brand new League Sync! Keep track of all your Yahoo! teams in one place and use our Trade Analyzer, Free Agent Finder, Lineup Adviser and custom projections to make all the right roster decisions!  Get all of our Season Tools, League Sync AND DFS Tools for as low as $7.99/month!


High Value RB Touches

As shown graphically here, targets and opportunities near the goal line are by far the most valuable types of touches for fantasy RBs. I've combined them to create "High Value Touches", which are targets plus inside-the-10-yard line touches. The players in the table are sorted by high value touches per game over the last four weeks (min. three carries per game and 0.1 high value touches per game). “Inside-10” are targets plus carries within 10 yards of the end zone over the last four weeks. “Opps” are opportunities, which are targets plus carries. "High-Value %" is the percentage of opportunities that are high value touches. The higher, the better for all categories.

Player High Value Inside 10 Targets Carries Opps High Value % Last 4 Games
TB Leonard Fournette 11.0 4.0 7.0 11.0 18.0 61% 1
NO Alvin Kamara 9.3 2.0 7.3 14.7 22.0 42% 3
CAR Mike Davis 8.5 2.5 6.0 14.3 20.3 42% 4
CIN Joe Mixon 8.0 2.3 5.7 22.3 28.0 29% 3
GB Aaron Jones 7.5 2.5 5.0 12.5 17.5 43% 2
CHI David Montgomery 7.5 1.5 6.0 13.3 19.3 39% 4
DAL Ezekiel Elliott 7.3 1.5 5.8 14.0 19.8 37% 4
TEN Derrick Henry 6.7 3.7 3.0 20.3 23.3 29% 3
DET D'Andre Swift 6.7 2.3 4.3 9.0 13.3 50% 3
MIA Myles Gaskin 6.7 2.3 4.3 14.7 19.0 35% 3
GB Jamaal Williams 6.3 1.7 4.7 10.3 15.0 42% 3
TB Ronald Jones 6.3 1.8 4.5 18.3 22.8 27% 4
SEA Chris Carson 6.0 1.7 4.3 9.7 14.0 43% 3
WAS J.D. McKissic 6.0 0.0 6.0 4.0 10.0 60% 4
JAX James Robinson 6.0 0.8 5.3 16.0 21.3 28% 4
ARI Chase Edmonds 5.8 0.5 5.3 4.3 9.5 61% 4
KC Clyde Edwards-Helaire 5.8 1.0 4.8 15.0 19.8 29% 4
HOU David Johnson 5.8 2.5 3.3 16.5 19.8 29% 4
MIN Dalvin Cook 5.5 2.0 3.5 22.0 25.5 22% 2
DEN Melvin Gordon 5.5 2.0 3.5 20.0 23.5 23% 2
ATL Todd Gurley 5.5 2.3 3.3 18.3 21.5 26% 4
PIT James Conner 5.3 2.3 3.0 18.3 21.3 25% 3
WAS Antonio Gibson 5.3 1.3 4.0 13.3 17.3 30% 4
LV Josh Jacobs 5.0 1.3 3.7 16.0 19.7 25% 3
IND Nyheim Hines 5.0 0.7 4.3 4.0 8.3 60% 3
LAC Justin Jackson 4.7 0.0 4.7 8.7 13.3 35% 3
LA Darrell Henderson 4.5 2.8 1.8 13.0 14.8 31% 4
PHI Miles Sanders 4.3 1.0 3.3 11.0 14.3 30% 3
CLE Kareem Hunt 4.3 1.5 2.8 15.5 18.3 23% 4
SEA Carlos Hyde 4.0 0.0 4.0 15.0 19.0 21% 1
BUF Devin Singletary 4.0 0.5 3.5 11.8 15.3 26% 4
SF Jerick McKinnon 4.0 0.3 3.8 6.0 9.8 41% 4
LA Malcolm Brown 4.0 0.8 3.3 7.3 10.5 38% 4
HOU Duke Johnson 3.8 0.8 3.0 3.3 6.3 60% 4
CIN Giovani Bernard 3.8 1.3 2.5 5.8 8.3 45% 4
ARI Kenyan Drake 3.8 2.5 1.3 16.3 17.5 21% 4
MIN Alexander Mattison 3.7 2.0 1.7 12.3 14.0 26% 3
LAC Joshua Kelley 3.7 0.7 3.0 10.7 13.7 27% 3
PHI Boston Scott 3.5 1.3 2.3 4.3 6.5 54% 4
NYG Devonta Freeman 3.5 1.0 2.5 12.3 14.8 24% 4
IND Jonathan Taylor 3.3 0.7 2.7 13.7 16.3 20% 3
ATL Brian Hill 3.0 0.8 2.3 5.5 7.8 39% 4
BAL J.K. Dobbins 3.0 0.0 3.0 5.0 8.0 38% 3
CAR Reggie Bonnafon 3.0 1.0 2.0 10.0 12.0 25% 1
SF Raheem Mostert 3.0 0.5 2.5 14.0 16.5 18% 2
DAL Tony Pollard 2.8 0.3 2.5 6.8 9.3 30% 4
NO Latavius Murray 2.7 1.0 1.7 11.0 12.7 21% 3
NYG Wayne Gallman 2.7 0.3 2.3 7.0 9.3 29% 3
DET Adrian Peterson 2.3 1.0 1.3 12.3 13.7 17% 3
SF Jeff Wilson 2.3 1.0 1.3 8.0 9.3 25% 3
NYJ Lamical Perine 2.3 0.3 2.0 7.7 9.7 24% 3
MIA Matt Breida 2.3 0.3 2.0 6.0 8.0 29% 3
NE Rex Burkhead 2.3 0.7 1.7 6.7 8.3 28% 3
PIT Benny Snell 2.0 1.7 0.3 5.0 5.3 38% 3
TEN Jeremy McNichols 2.0 0.7 1.3 5.0 6.3 32% 3
BUF T.J. Yeldon 2.0 0.0 2.0 3.5 5.5 36% 2
NYJ Frank Gore 1.8 0.3 1.5 11.0 12.5 14% 4
BAL Gus Edwards 1.7 0.7 1.0 10.0 11.0 15% 3
DEN Royce Freeman 1.7 0.0 1.7 4.7 6.3 26% 3
NE Cam Newton 1.5 1.0 0.5 7.5 8.0 19% 2
LV Devontae Booker 1.5 0.0 1.5 5.0 6.5 23% 2
DET Kerryon Johnson 1.5 0.0 1.5 3.5 5.0 30% 2
BUF Zack Moss 1.5 0.0 1.5 6.0 7.5 20% 2
BAL Mark Ingram 1.3 1.0 0.3 8.0 8.3 16% 3
ARI Kyler Murray 1.3 1.3 0.0 9.8 9.8 13% 4
KC Chad Henne 1.0 1.0 0.0 4.0 4.0 25% 1
PHI Carson Wentz 1.0 1.0 0.0 5.8 5.8 17% 4
DEN Drew Lock 1.0 1.0 0.0 4.0 4.0 25% 2
KC Darrel Williams 1.0 0.0 1.0 6.0 7.0 14% 1
CIN Joe Burrow 1.0 1.0 0.0 4.0 4.0 25% 4
SF JaMycal Hasty 1.0 0.0 1.0 9.0 10.0 10% 2
KC Le'Veon Bell 1.0 1.0 0.0 6.0 6.0 17% 1
WAS Peyton Barber 1.0 0.3 0.7 5.7 6.3 16% 3
DEN Phillip Lindsay 1.0 1.0 0.0 16.0 16.0 6% 2
KC Patrick Mahomes 1.0 1.0 0.0 8.0 8.0 13% 3
CAR Teddy Bridgewater 1.0 1.0 0.0 4.8 4.8 21% 4
BUF Josh Allen 0.8 0.8 0.0 6.5 6.5 12% 4
NE Damien Harris 0.7 0.0 0.7 11.0 11.7 6% 3
IND Jordan Wilkins 0.7 0.0 0.7 3.7 4.3 15% 3
SEA Travis Homer 0.7 0.3 0.3 3.3 3.7 18% 3
CLE Dontrelle Hilliard 0.5 0.0 0.5 4.5 5.0 10% 2
CLE D'Ernest Johnson 0.5 0.0 0.5 6.5 7.0 7% 4
HOU Deshaun Watson 0.5 0.5 0.0 4.5 4.5 11% 4
JAX Gardner Minshew 0.5 0.3 0.3 3.3 3.5 14% 4
LAC Justin Herbert 0.3 0.3 0.0 6.0 6.0 6% 3

Game-Script Touch Shares

Some players get the ball more when their team is leading (think LeGarrette Blount), while others get the ball more when their team is trailing (think James White). This table shows each player’s touch share -- the percentage of a team’s plays that went to a player -- while playing in neutral game script (in-game winning percentage between 34-66%), while trailing (0-33%), and while leading (67-100%). Please note that I removed players who have missed a game within the last four weeks. All touch shares are from over the last four weeks. Beware of small samples when a team has few plays within a game script.

Player Neutral Trailing Leading Game Script Bump
IND Jonathan Taylor 44% 20% 26%  
DAL Ezekiel Elliott 44% 25% 30%  
ATL Todd Gurley 43% 24% 34%  
JAX James Robinson 42% 32% 50% Positive
LV Josh Jacobs 40% 18% 45% Positive
WAS Antonio Gibson 40% 21% 36% Positive
MIA Myles Gaskin 40% 21% 37% Positive
KC Clyde Edwards-Helaire 39% 27% 30%  
CAR Mike Davis 37% 32% 38%  
HOU David Johnson 37% 28% 38%  
CLE Kareem Hunt 36% 32% 24%  
CHI David Montgomery 34% 31% 37%  
DET Adrian Peterson 34% 15% 20%  
TEN Derrick Henry 33% 38% 40%  
LA Darrell Henderson 33% 25% 23%  
NO Alvin Kamara 33% 35% 29%  
TB Ronald Jones 33% 39% 34%  
NYG Devonta Freeman 32% 15% 35% Positive
ARI Kenyan Drake 31% 22% 33%  
PIT James Conner 30% NA 32%  
NE Damien Harris 30% 16% NA  
BUF Devin Singletary 29% 15% 36%  
LAC Justin Jackson 29% 17% 18%  
NYJ Frank Gore 27% 18% 24%  
SEA Chris Carson 26% 38% 21% Negative
BAL Mark Ingram 25% NA 13%  
SF Jerick McKinnon 24% 11% 13%  
GB Jamaal Williams 23% 4% 34% Positive
DET D'Andre Swift 22% 15% 28%  
MIN Alexander Mattison 18% 26% 22%  
NO Latavius Murray 18% 12% 24%  
NE Rex Burkhead 17% 13% NA  
WAS J.D. McKissic 17% 20% 11%  
PHI Boston Scott 16% 7% 18%  
LAC Joshua Kelley 16% 8% 27% Positive
CIN Giovani Bernard 16% 5% 12%  
BAL J.K. Dobbins 15% NA 13%  
BAL Lamar Jackson 15% NA 10%  
CAR Teddy Bridgewater 12% 5% 7%  
PHI Carson Wentz 12% 8% 12%  
ATL Brian Hill 12% 9% 15%  
DEN Royce Freeman 10% 9% 10%  
ARI Kyler Murray 10% 15% 18%  
BUF Josh Allen 10% 9% 15%  
BAL Gus Edwards 10% NA 20%  
LA Malcolm Brown 10% 11% 22%  

 


The Fantasy Usage Model: Week 8

Part 1: High Value RB Touches & Game Script (Monday)

Part 2: Targets Aren’t Created Equal (Monday Night)

Part 3: Air Yards Report (Monday Night)

Part 4: Fantasy Usage Model Notes (Tuesday)

My Twitter: @HaydenWinks