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Fantasy Usage Model

High Value RB Touches: CEH's Role in Week 9

by Hayden Winks
Updated On: November 10, 2020, 1:22 pm ET

Opportunity matters more than talent in fantasy football, but not all touches are created equal. We have to go beyond just "carries" to analyze how a player is being involved, especially at running back where players are used in all kinds of ways. "High Value RB Touches & Game Script" will break down which running backs are being used optimally and which running backs are only seeing low-value touches. 

 


Week 9 Situational RB Touches

One way to look at how running backs are used is by separating third-down touches from early-down touches (touches on 1st or 2nd down). In a perfect world, running backs would have high touch totals in both situations, plus dominate touches inside the 10-yard line. Those are shown below, as well as “Pass Situation Targets”. The goal with this metric is to find the running backs who play on obvious passing downs because we want bankable targets from our fantasy running backs. “Pass Situation Targets” include targets during two-minute drills, targets on 3rd- or 4th-and-long, or targets while clearly trailing (all while removing garbage time). If that’s too much to think about, it’s essentially the type of plays where you’re screaming at the TV because Giovani Bernard is playing over Joe Mixon. We’ve all been there.

Player Early Downs Third Down Inside 10 Passing Situation Targets
ARI Chase Edmonds 26 1 0 1
ARI D.J. Foster 2 0 0 0
ATL Todd Gurley 20 1 1 0
ATL Brian Hill 8 1 0 0
ATL Keith Smith 0 1 0 0
BAL J.K. Dobbins 12 1 1 1
BAL Gus Edwards 10 3 5 0
BUF Zack Moss 9 2 1 0
BUF Devin Singletary 5 0 1 0
CAR Christian McCaffrey 22 5 3 5
CAR Mike Davis 6 1 0 5
CHI David Montgomery 13 2 1 2
CHI Ryan Nall 4 0 1 0
DAL Ezekiel Elliott 16 5 1 1
DAL Tony Pollard 9 2 0 0
DEN Phillip Lindsay 11 0 0 0
DEN Melvin Gordon 6 1 0 1
DET D'Andre Swift 18 0 2 2
DET Adrian Peterson 11 2 3 2
DET Kerryon Johnson 6 1 0 0
GB Aaron Jones 20 0 0 0
GB Tyler Ervin 10 3 1 1
GB Dexter Williams 2 0 0 0
HOU Duke Johnson 18 2 1 2
HOU David Johnson 2 1 0 0
IND Jordan Wilkins 13 0 0 1
IND Jonathan Taylor 7 1 2 0
IND Nyheim Hines 3 2 0 1
JAX James Robinson 24 2 1 0
JAX Chris Thompson 4 1 0 3
KC Clyde Edwards-Helaire 10 0 1 0
KC Le'Veon Bell 5 0 0 0
KC Darrel Williams 0 1 0 1
LAC Kalen Ballage 16 0 2 1
LAC Joshua Kelley 13 1 0 3
LAC Gabe Nabers 1 0 1 0
LV Josh Jacobs 14 1 1 0
LV Devontae Booker 8 0 0 0
LV Jalen Richard 0 2 0 1
MIA Jordan Howard 9 1 1 0
MIA Salvon Ahmed 7 0 0 0
MIA Patrick Laird 2 0 0 1
MIN Dalvin Cook 23 1 3 2
MIN Alexander Mattison 9 3 1 0
MIN Ameer Abdullah 1 0 0 1
NE Damien Harris 14 0 1 0
NE Rex Burkhead 13 2 2 1
NE James White 5 1 0 5
NO Alvin Kamara 14 1 3 0
NO Latavius Murray 9 3 0 0
NYG Wayne Gallman 16 0 1 0
NYG Alfred Morris 10 0 0 0
NYG Dion Lewis 2 2 0 2
NYG Elijhaa Penny 1 1 0 0
NYJ Frank Gore 13 1 0 0
NYJ Lamical Perine 6 2 0 2
PIT James Conner 9 1 0 1
PIT Anthony McFarland 4 1 0 0
PIT Benny Snell 2 0 0 0
SEA DeeJay Dallas 8 1 3 0
SEA Travis Homer 8 1 1 0
SEA Alex Collins 2 0 0 0
SF Jerick McKinnon 13 3 2 1
SF JaMycal Hasty 6 0 0 1
SF Kyle Juszczyk 1 0 0 0
TB Leonard Fournette 7 0 0 0
TB Ronald Jones 6 1 1 1
TEN Derrick Henry 19 2 0 0
TEN D'Onta Foreman 5 0 0 0
TEN Jeremy McNichols 0 2 0 0
WAS J.D. McKissic 13 4 0 8
WAS Antonio Gibson 9 0 1 1

 


Week 9 Garbage Time Eaters

Percentage of a player’s touches that came when @nflfastR’s in-game winning percentage was less than 10% or greater than 90%. This is when backups enter the game, but it’s not always a bad thing. Use your judgement. Minimum four touches and 50% “Garbage Rate”.

Player Garbage Rate Garbage Touch Total Touches
Drew Lock 100% 7 7
Leonard Fournette 100% 7 7
Mike Evans 100% 6 6
Jerry Jeudy 86% 12 14
Alexander Mattison 83% 10 12
KJ Hamler 82% 9 11
Tim Patrick 78% 7 9
Latavius Murray 75% 9 12
Taysom Hill 75% 6 8
T.J. Hockenson 75% 6 8
Brian Hill 67% 6 9
David Moore 67% 4 6
Rob Gronkowski 67% 4 6
Travis Homer 67% 6 9
Hayden Hurst 63% 5 8
Todd Gurley 62% 13 21
Alvin Kamara 60% 9 15
Kerryon Johnson 57% 4 7
Melvin Gordon 57% 4 7
Jerick McKinnon 56% 9 16
Anthony Miller 56% 5 9
Allen Robinson 56% 5 9
DK Metcalf 56% 5 9
Darnell Mooney 55% 6 11
Tyler Ervin 54% 7 13
Chris Godwin 50% 3 6
Davante Adams 50% 6 12
De'Michael Harris 50% 3 6
Michael Thomas 50% 3 6
Zach Pascal 50% 3 6

 

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High Value RB Touches

As shown graphically here, targets and opportunities near the goal line are by far the most valuable types of touches for fantasy RBs. I've combined them to create "High Value Touches", which are targets plus inside-the-10-yard line touches. The players in the table are sorted by high value touches per game over the last four weeks (min. three carries per game and 0.1 high value touches per game). “Inside-10” are targets plus carries within 10 yards of the end zone over the last four weeks. “Opps” are opportunities, which are targets plus carries. "High-Value %" is the percentage of opportunities that are high value touches. The higher, the better for all categories.

Player High Value Inside 10 Targets Carries Opps High Value % Last 4 Games
1. Christian McCaffrey 13.0 3.0 10.0 18.0 28.0 46% 1
2. Alvin Kamara 10.3 1.3 9.0 11.7 20.7 50% 3
3. Leonard Fournette 7.7 1.3 6.3 9.0 15.3 50% 3
4. J.D. McKissic 7.3 0.0 7.3 5.3 12.7 58% 3
5. Joe Mixon 7.0 4.0 3.0 18.0 21.0 33% 1
6. Myles Gaskin 7.0 2.0 5.0 18.0 23.0 30% 2
7. Dalvin Cook 6.5 4.0 2.5 26.0 28.5 23% 2
8. David Montgomery 6.5 2.0 4.5 17.0 21.5 30% 4
9. D'Andre Swift 6.5 2.0 4.5 10.5 15.0 43% 4
10. DeeJay Dallas 6.3 2.7 3.7 8.3 12.0 53% 3
11. Giovani Bernard 6.3 2.3 4.0 12.0 16.0 40% 3
12. Jamaal Williams 6.0 2.0 4.0 13.0 17.0 35% 3
13. Boston Scott 5.7 2.0 3.7 9.7 13.3 43% 3
14. Aaron Jones 5.5 0.5 5.0 12.5 17.5 31% 2
15. Justin Jackson 5.5 0.0 5.5 11.0 16.5 33% 2
16. James Robinson 5.3 1.3 4.0 19.7 23.7 23% 3
17. Ezekiel Elliott 5.3 1.0 4.3 15.3 19.5 27% 4
18. Clyde Edwards-Helaire 5.0 1.0 4.0 11.3 15.3 33% 4
19. Kalen Ballage 5.0 2.0 3.0 15.0 18.0 28% 1
20. Mike Davis 4.8 0.8 4.0 9.8 13.8 35% 4
21. Duke Johnson 4.7 1.0 3.7 7.0 10.7 44% 3
22. David Johnson 4.7 2.3 2.3 11.7 14.0 33% 3
23. Melvin Gordon 4.7 0.7 4.0 10.3 14.3 33% 3
24. Derrick Henry 4.5 2.5 2.0 20.3 22.3 20% 4
25. Ronald Jones 4.5 1.5 3.0 11.5 14.5 31% 4
26. Tyler Ervin 4.5 0.5 4.0 4.0 8.0 56% 2
27. Josh Jacobs 4.3 2.3 2.0 18.3 20.3 21% 3
28. Joshua Kelley 4.3 0.7 3.7 9.3 13.0 33% 3
29. Jonathan Taylor 4.3 1.3 3.0 9.7 12.7 34% 3
30. Chase Edmonds 4.0 0.0 4.0 11.7 15.7 26% 3
31. Carlos Hyde 4.0 0.0 4.0 15.0 19.0 21% 1
32. James Conner 4.0 1.3 2.8 16.0 18.8 21% 4
33. Jeff Wilson 4.0 2.0 2.0 17.0 19.0 21% 1
34. Kenyan Drake 4.0 2.0 2.0 17.0 19.0 21% 2
35. Kareem Hunt 4.0 0.7 3.3 15.0 18.3 22% 3
36. Todd Gurley 4.0 1.8 2.3 20.0 22.3 18% 4
37. Antonio Gibson 3.7 0.7 3.0 11.7 14.7 25% 3
38. Gus Edwards 3.7 2.7 1.0 13.7 14.7 25% 3
39. Wayne Gallman 3.7 1.0 2.7 12.0 14.7 25% 3
40. Jerick McKinnon 3.5 0.8 2.8 6.0 8.8 40% 4
41. Troymaine Pope 3.5 0.0 3.5 5.5 9.0 39% 2
42. Darrell Henderson 3.3 2.0 1.3 12.3 13.7 24% 3
43. Adrian Peterson 3.3 1.3 2.0 9.8 11.8 28% 4
44. Devin Singletary 3.3 0.5 2.8 8.5 11.3 29% 4
45. Chris Carson 3.0 1.0 2.0 5.0 7.0 43% 1
46. J.K. Dobbins 3.0 0.3 2.7 12.0 14.7 20% 3
47. Lamical Perine 3.0 0.3 2.7 8.7 11.3 26% 3
48. Raheem Mostert 3.0 1.0 2.0 17.0 19.0 16% 1
49. Zack Moss 2.8 1.3 1.5 8.8 10.3 27% 4
50. Malcolm Brown 2.7 0.3 2.3 7.3 9.7 28% 3
51. Brian Hill 2.5 0.3 2.3 7.8 10.0 25% 4
52. Devonta Freeman 2.5 1.0 1.5 10.5 12.0 21% 2
53. Latavius Murray 2.3 0.3 2.0 9.7 11.7 20% 3
54. Tony Pollard 2.3 0.0 2.3 8.5 10.8 21% 4
55. Corey Clement 2.0 0.5 1.5 3.5 5.0 40% 2
56. JaMycal Hasty 2.0 0.8 1.3 8.5 9.8 21% 4
57. Miles Sanders 2.0 0.0 2.0 9.0 11.0 18% 1
58. Phillip Lindsay 2.0 0.5 1.5 11.5 13.0 15% 4
59. Alexander Mattison 1.7 1.0 0.7 8.3 9.0 19% 3
60. Benny Snell 1.7 1.3 0.3 3.7 4.0 42% 3
61. Jordan Wilkins 1.7 0.3 1.3 10.7 12.0 14% 3
62. Le'Veon Bell 1.7 0.3 1.3 5.3 6.7 25% 3
63. Rex Burkhead 1.7 0.0 1.7 5.0 6.7 25% 3
64. Matt Breida 1.5 0.5 1.0 5.0 6.0 25% 2
65. Royce Freeman 1.5 0.0 1.5 5.5 7.0 21% 2
66. Damien Harris 1.3 0.7 0.7 10.7 11.3 12% 3
67. Frank Gore 1.3 0.0 1.3 10.7 12.0 11% 3
68. Samaje Perine 1.3 0.7 0.7 4.0 4.7 29% 3
69. Travis Homer 1.3 0.3 1.0 3.3 4.3 31% 3
70. Cam Akers 1.0 0.0 1.0 9.0 10.0 10% 1
71. Devontae Booker 1.0 0.0 1.0 5.3 6.3 16% 3
72. Jordan Howard 1.0 1.0 0.0 10.0 10.0 10% 1
73. Ke'Shawn Vaughn 1.0 0.0 1.0 5.0 6.0 17% 1
74. LeSean McCoy 1.0 0.0 1.0 4.0 5.0 20% 1
75. Alfred Morris 0.5 0.0 0.5 8.5 9.0 6% 2
76. Darwin Thompson 0.5 0.0 0.5 3.5 4.0 13% 2
77. Peyton Barber 0.5 0.0 0.5 7.0 7.5 7% 2
78. AJ Dillon 0.3 0.0 0.3 5.0 5.3 6% 3
79. D'Onta Foreman 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 5.0 0% 2
80. Dontrelle Hilliard 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 4.0 0% 1
81. Mark Ingram 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 5.0 0% 1
82. Salvon Ahmed 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.0 7.0 0% 1

 


Game-Script Touch Shares

Some players get the ball more when their team is leading (think LeGarrette Blount), while others get the ball more when their team is trailing (think James White). This table shows each player’s touch share -- the percentage of a team’s plays that went to a player -- while playing in neutral game script (in-game winning percentage between 34-66%), while trailing (0-33%), and while leading (67-100%). Please note that I removed players who have missed a game within the last four weeks. All touch shares are from over the last four weeks. Beware of small samples when a team has few plays within a game script.

Player Neutral Trailing Leading Game Script Bump
DAL Ezekiel Elliott 46% 20% 38% Positive
JAX James Robinson 46% 36% NA  
CLE Kareem Hunt 46% 32% NA  
LA Darrell Henderson 43% 12% 24%  
TEN Derrick Henry 39% 35% 43%  
LV Josh Jacobs 36% 13% 48% Positive
ATL Todd Gurley 36% NA 34% Positive
NO Alvin Kamara 35% NA 24%  
CHI David Montgomery 33% 32% 42%  
KC Clyde Edwards-Helaire 31% NA 23% Positive
NYJ Frank Gore 31% 20% 22%  
PHI Boston Scott 31% 12% 23%  
BUF Devin Singletary 31% NA 10%  
WAS Antonio Gibson 30% 17% 36% Positive
PIT James Conner 28% 18% 38% Positive
ARI Chase Edmonds 28% 18% 23%  
IND Jonathan Taylor 28% 13% 16%  
NE Damien Harris 28% 19% NA  
CAR Mike Davis 27% 27% 25%  
DET Adrian Peterson 27% 13% 21%  
DET D'Andre Swift 25% 21% 28%  
HOU Duke Johnson 24% 10% 24%  
BAL Gus Edwards 24% 0% 24% Positive
DEN Phillip Lindsay 23% 14% 36% Positive
CIN Giovani Bernard 23% 17% 25%  
TB Ronald Jones 23% 23% 29%  
IND Jordan Wilkins 21% 11% 27% Positive
BAL Lamar Jackson 20% 8% 20%  
WAS J.D. McKissic 20% 30% 11%  
BAL J.K. Dobbins 19% 23% 25%  
NE Cam Newton 19% 16% NA  
SEA DeeJay Dallas 18% 16% 20%  
HOU David Johnson 18% 30% 17%  
SF JaMycal Hasty 18% 9% 19%  
NO Latavius Murray 16% NA 18%  
LAC Joshua Kelley 16% 19% 18%  
ARI Kyler Murray 15% 17% 23%  

 


The Fantasy Usage Model: Week 10

Part 1: High Value RB Touches (Sunday Night)

Part 2: Targets Aren’t Created Equal (Monday Night)

Part 3: Air Yards Report (Monday Night)

Part 4: Fantasy Usage Model Notes (Tuesday)

My Twitter: @HaydenWinks