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Fantasy Usage Model

High Value RB Touches: JT Busts in Week 8

by Hayden Winks
Updated On: November 3, 2020, 4:15 pm ET

Opportunity matters more than talent in fantasy football, but not all touches are created equal. We have to go beyond just "carries" to analyze how a player is being involved, especially at running back where players are used in all kinds of ways. "High Value RB Touches & Game Script" will break down which running backs are being used optimally and which running backs are only seeing low-value touches.

 


Week 8 Situational RB Touches

One way to look at how running backs are used is by separating third-down touches from early-down touches (touches on 1st or 2nd down). In a perfect world, running backs would have high touch totals in both situations, plus dominate touches inside the 10-yard line. Those are shown below, as well as “Pass Situation Targets”. The goal with this metric is to find the running backs who play on obvious passing downs because we want bankable targets from our fantasy running backs. “Pass Situation Targets” include targets during two-minute drills, targets on 3rd- or 4th-and-long, or targets while clearly trailing (all while removing garbage time). If that’s too much to think about, it’s essentially the type of plays where you’re screaming at the TV because Giovani Bernard is playing over Joe Mixon. We’ve all been there.

Player Early Downs Third Down Inside 10 Passing Situation Targets
ATL Todd Gurley 16 2 2 0
ATL Brian Hill 14 0 0 0
ATL Keith Smith 1 0 0 0
ATL Qadree Ollison 0 1 0 0
BAL Gus Edwards 17 0 1 0
BAL J.K. Dobbins 15 2 0 1
BUF Devin Singletary 14 1 0 0
BUF Zack Moss 13 2 4 1
CAR Mike Davis 14 0 0 0
CHI David Montgomery 21 5 2 4
CHI Ryan Nall 1 0 0 1
CIN Giovani Bernard 16 3 2 0
CIN Samaje Perine 11 0 2 0
CLE Kareem Hunt 15 2 0 0
CLE D'Ernest Johnson 2 1 0 1
CLE Andy Janovich 0 1 0 1
DAL Ezekiel Elliott 18 3 2 1
DAL Tony Pollard 9 0 0 0
DEN Melvin Gordon 12 3 0 5
DEN Phillip Lindsay 8 1 0 3
DET D'Andre Swift 9 1 0 1
DET Adrian Peterson 6 0 0 1
DET Kerryon Johnson 1 1 1 2
GB Jamaal Williams 18 3 2 1
GB AJ Dillon 5 1 0 0
GB Tyler Ervin 3 0 0 0
IND Jordan Wilkins 19 2 1 0
IND Jonathan Taylor 10 3 2 1
IND Nyheim Hines 9 1 1 1
KC Clyde Edwards-Helaire 9 0 1 2
KC Le'Veon Bell 7 1 0 0
KC Darrel Williams 3 1 0 0
KC Darwin Thompson 2 2 0 0
LA Malcolm Brown 11 1 0 0
LA Darrell Henderson 10 0 1 0
LA Cam Akers 9 1 0 0
LAC Justin Jackson 20 2 0 1
LAC Joshua Kelley 7 0 1 0
LAC Gabe Nabers 1 0 1 1
LAC Troymaine Pope 16 1 0 3
LV Josh Jacobs 28 3 5 0
LV Devontae Booker 5 1 0 1
LV Jalen Richard 0 2 0 1
MIA Myles Gaskin 19 5 3 0
MIA Matt Breida 4 0 0 0
MIN Dalvin Cook 27 5 5 2
MIN Alexander Mattison 3 0 0 0
MIN C.J. Ham 1 0 1 0
NE Damien Harris 16 0 2 0
NE James White 5 1 0 2
NE Rex Burkhead 3 4 0 1
NO Alvin Kamara 19 4 0 3
NO Latavius Murray 9 2 0 2
NYG Alfred Morris 8 0 0 0
NYG Dion Lewis 1 2 1 3
NYG Elijah Penny 1 0 0 0
NYG Wayne Gallman 12 1 1 1
NYJ Frank Gore 10 0 0 0
NYJ Lamical Perine 7 2 0 2
NYJ Ty Johnson 4 0 0 0
PHI Boston Scott 17 0 1 1
PHI Corey Clement 7 0 0 0
PIT James Conner 15 3 1 1
PIT Jaylen Samuels 2 0 0 1
PIT Anthony McFarland 1 0 0 0
SEA DeeJay Dallas 21 2 5 0
SEA Travis Homer 1 0 0 0
SF JaMycal Hasty 11 1 3 0
SF Jerick McKinnon 6 1 1 0
SF Tevin Coleman 3 0 0 0
SF Kyle Juszczyk 2 0 0 0
TB Leonard Fournette 19 2 0 3
TB Ronald Jones 11 0 0 2
TEN Derrick Henry 16 3 3 1
TEN D'Onta Foreman 5 0 0 0
TEN Jeremy McNichols 5 0 0 0
TEN Khari Blasingame 1 0 0 0

 


Week 8 Garbage Time Eaters

Percentage of a player’s touches that came when @nflfastR’s in-game winning percentage was less than 10% or greater than 90%. This is when backups enter the game, but it’s not always a bad thing. Use your judgement. Minimum four touches and 50% “Garbage Rate”.

Player

Garbage Rate

Garbage Touch

Total Touches

Gerald Everett

78%

7

9

Brandon Aiyuk

73%

8

11

Cam Akers

70%

7

10

Malcolm Brown

67%

8

12

Myles Gaskin

67%

16

24

Jerick McKinnon

63%

5

8

Kendrick Bourne

60%

6

10

Robert Woods

60%

6

10

Davante Adams

58%

7

12

Marvin Hall

57%

4

7

Marvin Jones

57%

4

7

Robert Tonyan

57%

4

7

Clyde Edwards-Helaire

56%

5

9

Josh Reynolds

56%

5

9

Mecole Hardman

56%

5

9

Phillip Lindsay

56%

5

9

Tyler Boyd

56%

5

9

Samaje Perine

55%

6

11

Cooper Kupp

52%

11

21

Corey Davis

50%

5

10

Jerry Jeudy

50%

5

10

Tyreek Hill

50%

3

6

 


High Value RB Touches

As shown graphically here, targets and opportunities near the goal line are by far the most valuable types of touches for fantasy RBs. I've combined them to create "High Value Touches", which are targets plus inside-the-10-yard line touches. The players in the table are sorted by high value touches per game over the last four weeks (min. three carries per game and 0.1 high value touches per game). “Inside-10” are targets plus carries within 10 yards of the end zone over the last four weeks. “Opps” are opportunities, which are targets plus carries. "High-Value %" is the percentage of opportunities that are high value touches. The higher, the better for all categories.

Player High Value Inside 10 Targets Carries Opps High Value % Last 4 Games
1. Alvin Kamara 10.7 0.3 10.3 12.3 22.7 47% 3
2. Leonard Fournette 8.5 2.0 6.5 13.0 19.5 44% 2
3. Myles Gaskin 8.0 3.0 5.0 17.3 22.3 36% 3
4. David Montgomery 7.8 2.0 5.8 16.0 21.8 36% 4
5. Joe Mixon 7.5 2.0 5.5 21.0 26.5 28% 2
6. Dalvin Cook 7.0 3.0 4.0 23.5 27.5 25% 2
7. DeeJay Dallas 7.0 2.5 4.5 9.0 13.5 52% 2
8. James Robinson 6.7 1.0 5.7 15.7 21.3 31% 3
9. Mike Davis 6.5 1.5 5.0 13.5 18.5 35% 4
10. Melvin Gordon 6.5 1.0 5.5 12.5 18.0 36% 2
11. D'Andre Swift 6.3 2.0 4.3 9.7 14.0 45% 3
12. Aaron Jones 6.0 1.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 40% 1
13. Derrick Henry 6.0 3.5 2.5 19.8 22.3 27% 4
14. Jamaal Williams 6.0 2.0 4.0 13.0 17.0 35% 3
15. Clyde Edwards-Helaire 5.8 1.0 4.8 12.5 17.3 33% 4
16. David Johnson 5.7 2.3 3.3 16.7 20.0 28% 3
17. Justin Jackson 5.7 0.0 5.7 12.3 18.0 31% 3
18. Josh Jacobs 5.7 3.0 2.7 21.3 24.0 24% 3
19. Ezekiel Elliott 5.5 1.5 4.0 15.5 19.5 28% 4
20. J.D. McKissic 5.3 0.0 5.3 4.7 10.0 53% 3
21. Giovani Bernard 5.3 1.8 3.5 9.0 12.5 42% 4
22. Chris Carson 5.0 0.5 4.5 6.5 11.0 45% 2
23. Chase Edmonds 5.0 0.0 5.0 4.3 9.3 54% 3
24. James Conner 5.0 2.0 3.0 17.5 20.5 24% 4
25. Kareem Hunt 4.8 1.3 3.5 16.3 19.8 24% 4
26. Todd Gurley 4.8 1.8 3.0 18.8 21.8 22% 4
27. Darrell Henderson 4.5 2.5 2.0 13.0 15.0 30% 4
28. Miles Sanders 4.5 1.5 3.0 10.0 13.0 35% 2
29. Ronald Jones 4.5 1.3 3.3 15.0 18.3 25% 4
30. Antonio Gibson 4.3 0.7 3.7 13.3 17.0 25% 3
31. Jonathan Taylor 4.3 1.0 3.3 11.7 15.0 29% 3
32. Boston Scott 4.3 1.5 2.8 7.5 10.3 41% 4
33. Carlos Hyde 4.0 0.0 4.0 15.0 19.0 21% 1
34. Kenyan Drake 4.0 2.3 1.7 17.3 19.0 21% 3
35. Troymaine Pope 3.5 0.0 3.5 5.5 9.0 39% 2
36. Joshua Kelley 3.3 1.0 2.3 10.0 12.3 27% 3
37. Wayne Gallman 3.3 0.7 2.7 9.0 11.7 29% 3
38. Alexander Mattison 3.0 1.3 1.7 11.0 12.7 24% 3
39. Devonta Freeman 3.0 1.0 2.0 12.7 14.7 20% 3
40. J.K. Dobbins 3.0 0.0 3.0 8.3 11.3 26% 3
41. Jerick McKinnon 3.0 0.3 2.8 3.3 6.0 50% 4
42. Lamical Perine 3.0 0.3 2.7 8.7 11.3 26% 3
43. Malcolm Brown 3.0 0.8 2.3 7.5 9.8 31% 4
44. Raheem Mostert 3.0 0.5 2.5 14.0 16.5 18% 2
45. T.J. Yeldon 3.0 0.0 3.0 7.0 10.0 30% 1
46. Brian Hill 2.8 0.3 2.5 7.3 9.8 28% 4
47. Zack Moss 2.7 1.3 1.3 8.7 10.0 27% 3
48. Devin Singletary 2.5 0.3 2.3 10.8 13.0 19% 4
49. Jeff Wilson 2.5 1.0 1.5 10.5 12.0 21% 2
50. Tony Pollard 2.5 0.0 2.5 7.8 10.3 24% 4
51. Gus Edwards 2.3 1.0 1.3 12.3 13.7 17% 3
52. Latavius Murray 2.3 0.3 2.0 9.0 11.0 21% 3
53. Benny Snell 2.0 1.7 0.3 5.0 5.3 38% 3
54. Corey Clement 2.0 0.5 1.5 3.5 5.0 40% 2
55. JaMycal Hasty 2.0 1.0 1.0 10.0 11.0 18% 3
56. Le'Veon Bell 2.0 0.5 1.5 6.0 7.5 27% 2
57. Jeremy McNichols 1.8 0.5 1.3 4.8 6.0 29% 4
58. Adrian Peterson 1.7 0.7 1.0 10.3 11.3 15% 3
59. Phillip Lindsay 1.7 0.7 1.0 12.7 13.7 12% 3
60. Rex Burkhead 1.7 0.0 1.7 5.0 6.7 25% 3
61. Royce Freeman 1.5 0.0 1.5 5.5 7.0 21% 2
62. Devontae Booker 1.3 0.0 1.3 5.0 6.3 21% 3
63. Damien Harris 1.3 0.7 0.7 10.7 11.3 12% 3
64. Matt Breida 1.3 0.3 1.0 6.3 7.3 18% 3
65. Samaje Perine 1.3 0.7 0.7 4.0 4.7 29% 3
66. Darrel Williams 1.0 0.0 1.0 4.5 5.5 18% 2
67. Frank Gore 1.0 0.0 1.0 10.3 11.3 9% 4
68. Jordan Wilkins 1.0 0.3 0.7 7.3 8.0 13% 3
69. Le'Veon Bell 1.0 0.0 1.0 13.0 14.0 7% 1
70. LeSean McCoy 1.0 0.0 1.0 4.0 5.0 20% 1
71. Mark Ingram 1.0 1.0 0.0 8.0 8.0 13% 2
72. D'Ernest Johnson 0.8 0.0 0.8 3.8 4.5 17% 4
73. Cam Akers 0.5 0.0 0.5 9.0 9.5 5% 2
74. Darwin Thompson 0.5 0.0 0.5 3.5 4.0 13% 2
75. Peyton Barber 0.5 0.0 0.5 7.0 7.5 7% 2
76. AJ Dillon 0.3 0.0 0.3 5.0 5.3 6% 3
77. Alfred Morris 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.0 8.0 0% 1
78. D'Onta Foreman 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 5.0 0% 1
79. Dontrelle Hilliard 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 4.0 0% 1

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Game-Script Touch Shares

Some players get the ball more when their team is leading (think LeGarrette Blount), while others get the ball more when their team is trailing (think James White). This table shows each player’s touch share -- the percentage of a team’s plays that went to a player -- while playing in neutral game script (in-game winning percentage between 34-66%), while trailing (0-33%), and while leading (67-100%). Please note that I removed players who have missed a game within the last four weeks. All touch shares are from over the last four weeks. Beware of small samples when a team has few plays within a game script.

Player

Neutral

Trailing

Leading

Game Script Bump

ARI Kenyan Drake

30%

22%

33%

 

ARI Kyler Murray

11%

18%

18%

 

ARI Chase Edmonds

9%

16%

16%

 

ATL Todd Gurley

36%

20%

36%

Positive

ATL Brian Hill

14%

16%

16%

 

BAL Gus Edwards

24%

NA

21%

 

BAL J.K. Dobbins

20%

NA

16%

 

BAL Lamar Jackson

19%

NA

12%

 

BUF Devin Singletary

32%

15%

13%

 

BUF Josh Allen

12%

9%

23%

 

CAR Mike Davis

37%

30%

49%

Positive

CAR Teddy Bridgewater

12%

7%

6%

 

CHI David Montgomery

34%

37%

41%

 

CIN Giovani Bernard

21%

6%

25%

Positive

CIN Joe Burrow

5%

6%

7%

 

CLE Kareem Hunt

41%

32%

35%

 

CLE D'Ernest Johnson

5%

6%

19%

 

DAL Ezekiel Elliott

41%

24%

NA

 

DAL Tony Pollard

13%

19%

NA

 

DEN Phillip Lindsay

21%

13%

36%

Positive

DEN Drew Lock

6%

2%

11%

 

DET Adrian Peterson

27%

6%

21%

 

DET D'Andre Swift

25%

15%

28%

 

GB Jamaal Williams

32%

17%

39%

Positive

GB A.J. Dillon

11%

8%

8%

 

HOU David Johnson

32%

29%

38%

 

HOU Deshaun Watson

0%

12%

5%

 

IND Jonathan Taylor

41%

21%

12%

 

IND Jordan Wilkins

12%

4%

30%

Positive

JAX James Robinson

41%

32%

NA

 

JAX Gardner Minshew

5%

7%

NA

 

KC Clyde Edwards-Helaire

37%

NA

23%

 

LA Darrell Henderson

43%

12%

25%

 

LA Malcolm Brown

3%

14%

19%

 

LAC Justin Jackson

27%

NA

23%

 

LAC Joshua Kelley

16%

NA

18%

 

LAC Justin Herbert

5%

NA

9%

 

LV Josh Jacobs

39%

15%

55%

Positive

LV Devontae Booker

7%

23%

6%

Negative

LV Jalen Richard

7%

15%

4%

 

LV Derek Carr

5%

3%

13%

 

MIA Myles Gaskin

50%

NA

40%

 

MIA Matt Breida

0%

NA

16%

 

MIN Alexander Mattison

18%

21%

26%

 

NE Damien Harris

28%

19%

NA

 

NE Cam Newton

19%

16%

NA

 

NE Rex Burkhead

14%

13%

NA

 

NO Alvin Kamara

33%

35%

29%

 

NO Latavius Murray

18%

7%

22%

 

NO Taysom Hill

10%

3%

6%

 

NYG Devonta Freeman

29%

10%

35%

Positive

NYG Daniel Jones

5%

19%

8%

 

NYJ Frank Gore

28%

18%

NA

 

PHI Boston Scott

26%

8%

NA

 

PHI Carson Wentz

13%

6%

NA

 

PIT James Conner

32%

NA

33%

 

SEA Russell Wilson

6%

14%

10%

 

SF Jerick McKinnon

6%

10%

12%

 

TB Ronald Jones

29% 29% 29%  

TEN Derrick Henry

33%

35%

40%

 

TEN Jeremy McNichols

6%

9%

14%

 

WAS Antonio Gibson

38%

22%

36%

 

WAS J.D. McKissic

18%

23%

11%

 

 


The Fantasy Usage Model: Week 9

Part 1: High-Value RB Touches (Sunday Night)

Part 2: Targets Aren’t Created Equal (Monday Night)

Part 3: Air Yards Report (Monday Night)

Part 4: Fantasy Usage Model Notes (Tuesday)

My Twitter: @HaydenWinks