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Fantasy Usage Model

High Value RB Touches: McKissic's Week 10 Role

by Hayden Winks
Updated On: November 17, 2020, 12:12 pm ET

Opportunity matters more than talent in fantasy football, but not all touches are created equal. We have to go beyond just "carries" to analyze how a player is being involved, especially at running back where players are used in all kinds of ways. "High Value RB Touches & Game Script" will break down which running backs are being used optimally and which running backs are only seeing low-value touches. 

 


Week 10 Situational RB Touches

One way to look at how running backs are used is by separating third-down touches from early-down touches (touches on 1st or 2nd down). In a perfect world, running backs would have high touch totals in both situations, plus dominate touches inside the 10-yard line. Those are shown below, as well as “Pass Situation Targets”. The goal with this metric is to find the running backs who play on obvious passing downs because we want bankable targets from our fantasy running backs. “Pass Situation Targets” include targets during two-minute drills, targets on 3rd- or 4th-and-long, or targets while clearly trailing (all while removing garbage time). If that’s too much to think about, it’s essentially the type of plays where you’re screaming at the TV because Giovani Bernard is playing over Joe Mixon. We’ve all been there.

Player Early Downs Third Down Inside 10 Passing Situation Targets
ARI Kenyan Drake 16 1 2 0
ARI Chase Edmonds 11 0 0 2
BAL Gus Edwards 7 1 1 0
BAL Mark Ingram 6 0 0 1
BAL J.K. Dobbins 5 1 0 2
BAL Justice Hill 1 0 1 0
BAL Patrick Ricard 1 0 0 0
BUF Zack Moss 9 0 0 1
BUF Devin Singletary 7 2 0 1
CAR Mike Davis 11 1 1 2
CAR Rodney Smith 4 0 0 0
CAR Alex Armah 1 0 0 1
CIN Giovani Bernard 13 2 2 3
CIN Samaje Perine 8 0 0 0
CIN Trayveon Williams 5 0 0 0
CHI Cordarrelle Patterson 13 1 1 1
CHI Artavis Pierce 3 0 0 0
CHI Ryan Nall 3 0 0 1
CHI Lamar Miller 2 0 0 0
CLE Kareem Hunt 19 4 1 3
CLE Nick Chubb 18 2 1 0
DEN Melvin Gordon 12 1 1 1
DEN Phillip Lindsay 5 0 0 0
DEN Royce Freeman 2 2 0 2
DET D'Andre Swift 19 2 0 0
DET Adrian Peterson 5 0 0 0
DET Kerryon Johnson 1 0 0 0
GB Aaron Jones 18 1 1 1
GB Jamaal Williams 9 3 0 3
GB Tyler Ervin 2 0 0 0
HOU Duke Johnson 13 2 1 1
HOU C.J. Prosise 1 0 0 0
IND Nyheim Hines 18 0 1 3
IND Jordan Wilkins 6 1 2 0
IND Jonathan Taylor 5 2 2 0
JAX James Robinson 24 3 0 2
JAX Dare Ogunbowale 2 0 0 1
LA Cam Akers 9 1 2 0
LA Darrell Henderson 8 0 1 0
LA Malcolm Brown 4 4 2 2
LAC Kalen Ballage 19 4 4 4
LAC Joshua Kelley 7 0 1 0
LAC Gabe Nabers 1 0 0 1
LV Josh Jacobs 23 2 0 1
LV Devontae Booker 15 2 0 0
MIA Salvon Ahmed 20 2 3 0
MIA DeAndre Washington 2 0 0 0
MIA Patrick Laird 1 1 0 0
MIN Dalvin Cook 30 4 1 0
MIN Alexander Mattison 2 0 0 0
MIN C.J. Ham 1 0 0 0
NE Damien Harris 22 0 1 0
NE Rex Burkhead 8 3 1 2
NE Jakob Johnson 2 0 0 0
NE James White 1 1 0 0
NO Alvin Kamara 14 2 4 4
NO Latavius Murray 9 0 0 0
NYG Wayne Gallman 16 3 4 0
NYG Alfred Morris 8 0 0 0
NYG Dion Lewis 0 2 0 2
NYG Elijhaa Penny 0 1 1 0
PHI Miles Sanders 19 1 0 3
PHI Boston Scott 3 0 0 1
PHI Corey Clement 1 0 1 0
PIT James Conner 15 0 0 0
PIT Benny Snell 2 1 0 0
SEA Alex Collins 13 0 0 2
SEA DeeJay Dallas 4 1 0 2
SEA Travis Homer 2 1 0 3
SF Jerick McKinnon 17 3 2 1
SF JaMycal Hasty 5 0 0 1
SF Austin Walter 2 0 0 0
SF Kyle Juszczyk 1 1 0 1
TB Ronald Jones 24 1 4 0
TB Leonard Fournette 10 1 3 1
TEN Derrick Henry 20 1 1 0
TEN D'Onta Foreman 7 1 1 0
TEN Jeremy McNichols 4 0 0 0
TEN Khari Blasingame 1 0 0 0
WAS J.D. McKissic 17 6 1 11
WAS Antonio Gibson 15 2 2 1
WAS Peyton Barber 3 0 0 0

 


Week 10 Garbage Time Eaters

Percentage of a player’s touches that came when @nflfastR’s in-game winning percentage was less than 10% or greater than 90%. This is when backups enter the game, but it’s not always a bad thing. Use your judgement. Minimum four touches and 50% “Garbage Rate”.

Player Garbage Rate Garbage Touch Total Touches
D'Onta Foreman 75% 6 8
Isaiah Wright 67% 4 6
Latavius Murray 67% 6 9
Samaje Perine 63% 5 8
Chase Claypool 62% 8 13
JuJu Smith-Schuster 62% 8 13
James Conner 53% 8 15
Corey Davis 50% 3 6
Jalen Guyton 50% 3 6
Taysom Hill 50% 4 8

 

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High Value RB Touches

As shown graphically here, targets and opportunities near the goal line are by far the most valuable types of touches for fantasy RBs. I've combined them to create "High Value Touches", which are targets plus inside-the-10-yard line touches. The players in the table are sorted by high value touches per game over the last four weeks (min. three carries per game and 0.1 high value touches per game). “Inside-10” are targets plus carries within 10 yards of the end zone over the last four weeks. “Opps” are opportunities, which are targets plus carries. "High-Value %" is the percentage of opportunities that are high value touches. The higher, the better for all categories.

Player High Value Inside 10 Targets Carries Opps High Value % Last 4 Games
1. Christian McCaffrey 13.0 3.0 10.0 18.0 28.0 46% 1
2. Alvin Kamara 11.0 0.5 10.5 13.0 23.5 47% 2
3. Leonard Fournette 8.5 2.0 6.5 13.0 19.5 44% 2
4. J.D. McKissic 7.3 0.0 7.3 5.3 12.7 58% 3
5. Joe Mixon 7.0 4.0 3.0 18.0 21.0 33% 1
6. Myles Gaskin 7.0 2.0 5.0 18.0 23.0 30% 2
7. Dalvin Cook 6.5 4.0 2.5 26.0 28.5 23% 2
8. David Montgomery 6.5 2.0 4.5 17.0 21.5 30% 4
9. D'Andre Swift 6.5 2.0 4.5 10.5 15.0 43% 4
10. DeeJay Dallas 6.3 2.7 3.7 8.3 12.0 53% 3
11. Giovani Bernard 6.3 2.3 4.0 12.0 16.0 40% 3
12. Jamaal Williams 6.0 2.0 4.0 13.0 17.0 35% 3
13. Boston Scott 5.7 2.0 3.7 9.7 13.3 43% 3
14. Aaron Jones 5.5 0.5 5.0 12.5 17.5 31% 2
15. Justin Jackson 5.5 0.0 5.5 11.0 16.5 33% 2
16. James Robinson 5.3 1.3 4.0 19.7 23.7 23% 3
17. Ezekiel Elliott 5.3 1.0 4.3 15.3 19.5 27% 4
18. Clyde Edwards-Helaire 5.0 1.0 4.0 11.3 15.3 33% 4
19. Kalen Ballage 5.0 2.0 3.0 15.0 18.0 28% 1
20. Mike Davis 4.8 0.8 4.0 9.8 13.8 35% 4
21. Duke Johnson 4.7 1.0 3.7 7.0 10.7 44% 3
22. David Johnson 4.7 2.3 2.3 11.7 14.0 33% 3
23. Melvin Gordon 4.7 0.7 4.0 10.3 14.3 33% 3
24. Derrick Henry 4.5 2.5 2.0 20.3 22.3 20% 4
25. Tyler Ervin 4.5 0.5 4.0 4.0 8.0 56% 2
26. Josh Jacobs 4.3 2.3 2.0 18.3 20.3 21% 3
27. Joshua Kelley 4.3 0.7 3.7 9.3 13.0 33% 3
28. Jonathan Taylor 4.3 1.3 3.0 9.7 12.7 34% 3
29. Ronald Jones 4.3 1.7 2.7 14.3 17.0 25% 3
30. Chase Edmonds 4.0 0.0 4.0 11.7 15.7 26% 3
31. Carlos Hyde 4.0 0.0 4.0 15.0 19.0 21% 1
32. James Conner 4.0 1.3 2.8 16.0 18.8 21% 4
33. Jeff Wilson 4.0 2.0 2.0 17.0 19.0 21% 1
34. Kenyan Drake 4.0 2.0 2.0 17.0 19.0 21% 2
35. Kareem Hunt 4.0 0.7 3.3 15.0 18.3 22% 3
36. Todd Gurley 4.0 1.8 2.3 20.0 22.3 18% 4
37. Antonio Gibson 3.7 0.7 3.0 11.7 14.7 25% 3
38. Gus Edwards 3.7 2.7 1.0 13.7 14.7 25% 3
39. Wayne Gallman 3.7 1.0 2.7 12.0 14.7 25% 3
40. Jerick McKinnon 3.5 0.8 2.8 6.0 8.8 40% 4
41. Troymaine Pope 3.5 0.0 3.5 5.5 9.0 39% 2
42. Darrell Henderson 3.3 2.0 1.3 12.3 13.7 24% 3
43. Adrian Peterson 3.3 1.3 2.0 9.8 11.8 28% 4
44. Devin Singletary 3.3 0.5 2.8 8.5 11.3 29% 4
45. Chris Carson 3.0 1.0 2.0 5.0 7.0 43% 1
46. J.K. Dobbins 3.0 0.3 2.7 12.0 14.7 20% 3
47. Lamical Perine 3.0 0.3 2.7 8.7 11.3 26% 3
48. Raheem Mostert 3.0 1.0 2.0 17.0 19.0 16% 1
49. Zack Moss 2.8 1.3 1.5 8.8 10.3 27% 4
50. Malcolm Brown 2.7 0.3 2.3 7.3 9.7 28% 3
51. Brian Hill 2.5 0.3 2.3 7.8 10.0 25% 4
52. Devonta Freeman 2.5 1.0 1.5 10.5 12.0 21% 2
53. Latavius Murray 2.5 0.5 2.0 9.5 11.5 22% 2
54. Tony Pollard 2.3 0.0 2.3 8.5 10.8 21% 4
55. Corey Clement 2.0 0.5 1.5 3.5 5.0 40% 2
56. JaMycal Hasty 2.0 0.8 1.3 8.5 9.8 21% 4
57. Miles Sanders 2.0 0.0 2.0 9.0 11.0 18% 1
58. Phillip Lindsay 2.0 0.5 1.5 11.5 13.0 15% 4
59. Alexander Mattison 1.7 1.0 0.7 8.3 9.0 19% 3
60. Benny Snell 1.7 1.3 0.3 3.7 4.0 42% 3
61. Jordan Wilkins 1.7 0.3 1.3 10.7 12.0 14% 3
62. Le'Veon Bell 1.7 0.3 1.3 5.3 6.7 25% 3
63. Rex Burkhead 1.7 0.0 1.7 5.0 6.7 25% 3
64. Matt Breida 1.5 0.5 1.0 5.0 6.0 25% 2
65. Royce Freeman 1.5 0.0 1.5 5.5 7.0 21% 2
66. Damien Harris 1.3 0.7 0.7 10.7 11.3 12% 3
67. Frank Gore 1.3 0.0 1.3 10.7 12.0 11% 3
68. Samaje Perine 1.3 0.7 0.7 4.0 4.7 29% 3
69. Travis Homer 1.3 0.3 1.0 3.3 4.3 31% 3
70. Cam Akers 1.0 0.0 1.0 9.0 10.0 10% 1
71. Devontae Booker 1.0 0.0 1.0 5.3 6.3 16% 3
72. Jordan Howard 1.0 1.0 0.0 10.0 10.0 10% 1
73. Ke'Shawn Vaughn 1.0 0.0 1.0 5.0 6.0 17% 1
74. LeSean McCoy 1.0 0.0 1.0 4.0 5.0 20% 1
75. Alfred Morris 0.5 0.0 0.5 8.5 9.0 6% 2
76. Darwin Thompson 0.5 0.0 0.5 3.5 4.0 13% 2
77. Peyton Barber 0.5 0.0 0.5 7.0 7.5 7% 2
78. AJ Dillon 0.3 0.0 0.3 5.0 5.3 6% 3
79. D'Onta Foreman 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 5.0 0% 2
80. Dontrelle Hilliard 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 4.0 0% 1
81. Mark Ingram 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 5.0 0% 1
82. Salvon Ahmed 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.0 7.0 0% 1

 


Game-Script Touch Shares

Some players get the ball more when their team is leading (think LeGarrette Blount), while others get the ball more when their team is trailing (think James White). This table shows each player’s touch share -- the percentage of a team’s plays that went to a player -- while playing in neutral game script (in-game winning percentage between 34-66%), while trailing (0-33%), and while leading (67-100%). Please note that I removed players who have missed a game within the last four weeks. All touch shares are from over the last four weeks. Beware of small samples when a team has few plays within a game script.

Player Neutral Trailing Leading Positive
MIN Dalvin Cook 53% 48% 56%  
JAX James Robinson 47% 48% NA  
CLE Kareem Hunt 42% 30% 40%  
DAL Ezekiel Elliott 40% 21% 37% Positive
TEN Derrick Henry 39% 34% 41%  
LV Josh Jacobs 39% 13% 51% Positive
NO Alvin Kamara 34% NA 25%  
LA Darrell Henderson 34% 0% 18% Positive
ATL Todd Gurley 34% 6% 39% Positive
DET D'Andre Swift 34% 21% 32%  
PHI Boston Scott 33% 7% 23% Positive
ARI Chase Edmonds 32% 16% 33% Positive
HOU Duke Johnson 32% 8% 39% Positive
NE Damien Harris 31% 22% 31%  
WAS Antonio Gibson 31% 19% 36% Positive
NYJ Frank Gore 30% 16% 32% Positive
PIT James Conner 28% 18% 32%  
CIN Giovani Bernard 27% 26% 28%  
NYG Wayne Gallman 26% NA 29%  
TB Ronald Jones 25% 21% 27%  
CAR Mike Davis 25% 20% 27%  
BUF Devin Singletary 24% 22% 12%  
TB Leonard Fournette 24% 21% 23%  
SF Jerick McKinnon 23% 20% 13%  
KC Clyde Edwards-Helaire 23% NA 17%  
BAL Gus Edwards 23% 12% 21%  
CHI Cordarrelle Patterson 22% 6% NA  
NYJ Lamical Perine 22% 22% 26%  
DEN Melvin Gordon 21% 22% 12%  
BAL Lamar Jackson 21% 14% 29% Positive
IND Jordan Wilkins 20% 13% 35% Positive
DET Adrian Peterson 19% 13% 16%  
IND Jonathan Taylor 19% 15% 13%  
NE Rex Burkhead 18% 19% 16%  
BAL J.K. Dobbins 17% 17% 29%  
SF JaMycal Hasty 16% 8% 21%  
NO Latavius Murray 16% NA 19%  
WAS J.D. McKissic 16% 35% 11%  
BUF Josh Allen 15% 7% 15%  
LAC Joshua Kelley 15% 15% 18%  

 


The Fantasy Usage Model: Week 11

Part 1: High Value RB Touches (Sunday Night)

Part 2: Targets Aren’t Created Equal (Monday Night)

Part 3: Air Yards Report (Monday Night)

Part 4: Fantasy Usage Model Notes (Tuesday)

My Twitter: @HaydenWinks