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Fantasy Usage Model

Situational RB Touches: A Week 14 Recap

by Hayden Winks
Updated On: December 18, 2020, 3:00 pm ET

Opportunity matters more than talent in fantasy football, but not all touches are created equal. We have to go beyond just "carries" to analyze how a player is being involved, especially at running back where players are used in all kinds of ways. "Situational RB Touches" will break down which running backs are being used optimally and which running backs are only seeing low-value touches. 


Week 14 Situational RB Touches

One way to look at how running backs are used is by separating third-down touches from early-down touches (touches on 1st or 2nd down). In a perfect world, running backs would have high touch totals in both situations, plus dominate touches inside the 10-yard line. Those are shown below, as well as “Pass Situation Targets”. The goal with this metric is to find the running backs who play on obvious passing downs because we want bankable targets from our fantasy running backs. “Pass Situation Targets” include targets during two-minute drills, targets on 3rd- or 4th-and-long, or targets while clearly trailing (all while removing garbage time). If that’s too much to think about, it’s essentially the type of plays where you’re screaming at the TV because Giovani Bernard is playing over Joe Mixon. We’ve all been there.

Player Early Downs Third Down Inside 10 Passing Situation Targets
ARI Kenyan Drake 22 1 4 0
ARI Chase Edmonds 9 3 0 1
ATL Ito Smith 12 0 0 0
ATL Todd Gurley 9 0 0 1
ATL Keith Smith 2 1 0 0
ATL Brian Hill 1 1 0 1
BAL J.K. Dobbins 13 0 2 0
BAL Gus Edwards 8 0 0 0
BAL Justice Hill 0 1 0 0
BUF Zack Moss 13 1 1 0
BUF Devin Singletary 8 0 0 0
CAR Mike Davis 15 2 3 2
CAR Rodney Smith 2 2 0 1
CAR Alex Armah 1 0 1 0
CAR Trenton Cannon 1 0 0 0
CHI David Montgomery 12 3 1 0
CIN Trayveon Williams 14 1 0 2
CIN Samaje Perine 10 2 0 0
CIN Giovani Bernard 4 2 0 3
CLE Nick Chubb 19 0 2 1
CLE Kareem Hunt 11 2 1 5
DAL Ezekiel Elliott 14 1 1 0
DAL Tony Pollard 10 2 2 0
DEN Melvin Gordon 13 3 2 1
DEN Phillip Lindsay 12 1 0 0
DET D'Andre Swift 12 0 3 2
DET Adrian Peterson 5 0 1 0
DET Kerryon Johnson 3 0 1 0
GB Aaron Jones 17 1 1 1
GB Jamaal Williams 8 2 2 0
HOU Buddy Howell 13 0 0 0
HOU Duke Johnson 7 3 0 1
HOU C.J. Prosise 1 1 0 1
IND Jonathan Taylor 20 2 2 0
IND Nyheim Hines 10 1 2 1
IND Jordan Wilkins 1 2 0 1
JAX James Robinson 16 0 0 0
JAX Devine Ozigbo 4 0 0 0
JAX Dare Ogunbowale 1 0 0 0
KC Clyde Edwards-Helaire 21 1 0 0
KC Le'Veon Bell 4 1 0 1
KC Anthony Sherman 1 0 0 0
LA Cam Akers 26 6 4 2
LA Darrell Henderson 2 0 0 0
LA Malcolm Brown 1 0 0 0
LAC Austin Ekeler 24 0 1 1
LAC Kalen Ballage 7 2 1 1
LAC Justin Jackson 6 0 0 1
LAC Gabe Nabers 0 1 0 0
LV Josh Jacobs 17 1 1 2
LV Devontae Booker 7 0 0 0
LV Jalen Richard 7 0 0 0
MIA DeAndre Washington 16 1 1 0
MIA Patrick Laird 4 1 0 0
MIN Dalvin Cook 22 3 2 1
MIN Ameer Abdullah 4 1 0 1
MIN Mike Boone 3 0 0 0
MIN C.J. Ham 2 2 0 0
NE Damien Harris 13 0 1 0
NE Sony Michel 6 1 1 0
NE James White 3 2 0 1
NO Alvin Kamara 19 2 2 4
NO Latavius Murray 5 0 0 0
NYG Wayne Gallman 16 0 0 1
NYG Alfred Morris 3 0 0 0
NYG Dion Lewis 1 1 1 0
NYJ Frank Gore 9 0 0 1
NYJ Ty Johnson 8 0 0 0
NYJ Josh Adams 7 1 0 0
PHI Miles Sanders 17 1 2 0
PHI Boston Scott 4 0 0 0
PIT James Conner 10 0 0 0
PIT Jaylen Samuels 8 0 0 1
PIT Benny Snell 3 0 0 0
SEA Chris Carson 16 1 1 0
SEA Carlos Hyde 14 1 4 0
SEA DeeJay Dallas 3 1 1 0
SF Raheem Mostert 18 0 0 1
SF Jeff Wilson 10 4 2 3
SF Kyle Juszczyk 4 0 2 0
TB Ronald Jones 19 1 3 2
TB LeSean McCoy 2 3 0 1
TB Ke'Shawn Vaughn 1 0 0 0
TEN Derrick Henry 27 1 1 0
TEN Jeremy McNichols 9 2 1 0
WAS Peyton Barber 14 1 1 0
WAS J.D. McKissic 12 3 1 3

 


Week 14 Garbage Time Eaters

Percentage of a player’s touches that came when @nflfastR’s in-game winning percentage was less than 10% or greater than 90%. This is when backups enter the game, but it’s not always a bad thing. Use your judgement. Minimum four touches and 50% “Garbage Rate”.

Player Garbage Rate Garbage Touch Total Touches
Buddy Howell 100% 13 13
Jalen Richard 100% 7 7
Patrick Laird 100% 5 5
Jeremy McNichols 92% 11 12
Sterling Shepard 80% 4 5
Sony Michel 75% 6 8
Carlos Hyde 73% 11 15
Cole Kmet 71% 5 7
Zack Moss 71% 10 14
Kyler Murray 70% 7 10
Tony Pollard 69% 9 13
D.J. Chark 67% 6 9
David Moore 67% 4 6
Jordan Akins 67% 4 6
Mike Gesicki 67% 4 6
Mack Hollins 67% 6 9
Tua Tagovailoa 67% 4 6
Chris Carson 65% 11 17
Cam Akers 63% 20 32
Josh Adams 63% 5 8
Tee Higgins 63% 5 8
Tyreek Hill 63% 5 8
Allen Robinson 62% 8 13
David Montgomery 60% 9 15
Emmanuel Sanders 60% 3 5
Lynn Bowden 60% 6 10
Steven Mitchell 60% 3 5
Taysom Hill 60% 3 5
Tyler Lockett 60% 3 5
Chase Edmonds 58% 7 12
Kenyan Drake 58% 14 24
Samaje Perine 58% 7 12
Cordarrelle Patterson 57% 4 7
Devontae Booker 57% 4 7
Robert Woods 56% 5 9
Clyde Edwards-Helaire 55% 12 22
DeAndre Hopkins 55% 6 11
DK Metcalf 50% 4 8
Eric Ebron 50% 3 6
Giovani Bernard 50% 3 6
James Robinson 50% 8 16
Jaylen Samuels 50% 4 8
Keelan Cole 50% 6 12
Michael Gallup 50% 3 6
Marvin Jones 50% 4 8
Wayne Gallman 50% 8 16

 

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Golden Opportunities

As shown graphically here, targets and opportunities near the goal line are by far the most valuable types of touches for fantasy RBs. I've combined them to create "Golden Opportunities", which are targets plus inside-the-10-yard line touches. The players in the table are sorted by golden opportunities per game over the last four weeks (min. three carries per game and 0.1 golden opportunities per game). “Inside-10” are targets plus carries within 10 yards of the end zone over the last four weeks. “Opps” are opportunities, which are targets plus carries. "Golden Opp %" is the percentage of opportunities that are golden opportunities. The higher, the better for all categories.

Player Golden Opps Inside 10 Targets Carries Opps Golden Opp % Last 4 Games
1. Austin Ekeler 13.0 1.7 11.3 12.3 23.7 55% 3
2. Dalvin Cook 8.3 2.8 5.5 24.8 30.3 27% 4
3. D'Andre Swift 8.0 3.0 5.0 7.0 12.0 67% 1
4. Myles Gaskin 8.0 6.0 2.0 21.0 23.0 35% 1
5. Salvon Ahmed 8.0 2.0 6.0 12.0 18.0 44% 1
6. Mike Davis 7.3 2.7 4.7 15.0 19.7 37% 3
7. Kenyan Drake 7.3 4.0 3.3 16.5 19.8 37% 4
8. Nyheim Hines 7.3 2.0 5.3 7.3 12.5 58% 4
9. James Robinson 6.5 2.0 4.5 17.3 21.8 30% 4
10. David Montgomery 6.0 1.3 4.7 13.0 17.7 34% 3
11. DeAndre Washington 6.0 1.5 4.5 13.0 17.5 34% 2
12. Kalen Ballage 5.7 0.7 5.0 10.0 15.0 38% 3
13. Chase Edmonds 5.5 0.5 5.0 5.3 10.3 54% 4
14. Ezekiel Elliott 5.5 2.0 3.5 15.3 18.8 29% 4
15. J.D. McKissic 5.5 0.5 5.0 5.8 10.8 51% 4
16. Antonio Gibson 5.3 2.3 3.0 12.7 15.7 34% 3
17. Alvin Kamara 5.0 1.0 4.0 12.5 16.5 30% 4
18. Chris Carson 5.0 0.7 4.3 11.0 15.3 33% 3
19. Leonard Fournette 5.0 1.5 3.5 5.0 8.5 59% 2
20. Rex Burkhead 5.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 7.0 71% 1
21. Cam Akers 4.8 3.5 1.3 16.0 17.3 28% 4
22. James White 4.8 0.8 4.0 3.3 7.3 66% 4
23. Josh Jacobs 4.7 1.7 3.0 12.3 15.3 30% 3
24. Jeff Wilson 4.7 2.0 2.7 10.0 12.7 37% 3
25. Duke Johnson 4.5 0.3 4.3 7.3 11.5 39% 4
26. Wayne Gallman 4.3 1.3 3.0 17.3 20.3 21% 3
27. Benny Snell 4.3 2.5 1.8 8.5 10.3 41% 4
28. Miles Sanders 4.3 0.8 3.5 11.5 15.0 28% 4
29. Carlos Hyde 4.0 1.8 2.3 11.5 13.8 29% 4
30. Kareem Hunt 4.0 2.0 2.0 12.3 14.3 28% 3
31. Aaron Jones 3.8 0.8 3.0 14.3 17.3 22% 4
32. Giovani Bernard 3.8 0.5 3.3 8.0 11.3 33% 4
33. Kerryon Johnson 3.8 0.5 3.3 5.5 8.8 43% 4
34. Jonathan Taylor 3.7 0.7 3.0 18.3 21.3 17% 3
35. Ty Johnson 3.5 1.0 2.5 8.0 10.5 33% 4
36. Clyde Edwards-Helaire 3.3 0.3 3.0 13.7 16.7 20% 3
37. Nick Chubb 3.3 2.0 1.3 19.0 20.3 16% 3
38. Raheem Mostert 3.3 1.0 2.3 13.0 15.3 22% 3
39. Derrick Henry 3.3 1.0 2.3 24.0 26.3 12% 4
40. Le'Veon Bell 3.3 1.0 2.3 6.3 8.5 38% 4
41. Adrian Peterson 3.0 2.3 0.8 10.5 11.3 27% 4
42. Devontae Booker 3.0 0.5 2.5 7.5 10.0 30% 4
43. Damien Harris 3.0 1.8 1.3 13.0 14.3 21% 4
44. Devin Singletary 3.0 0.3 2.7 12.0 14.7 20% 3
45. David Johnson 3.0 1.0 2.0 10.0 12.0 25% 1
46. Melvin Gordon 2.8 1.5 1.3 13.8 15.0 18% 4
47. Joshua Kelley 2.7 1.3 1.3 3.7 5.0 53% 3
48. Ronald Jones 2.7 1.0 1.7 12.3 14.0 19% 3
49. Ito Smith 2.5 0.5 2.0 8.0 10.0 25% 4
50. J.K. Dobbins 2.5 1.5 1.0 13.0 14.0 18% 2
51. Justice Hill 2.5 1.0 1.5 4.5 6.0 42% 2
52. Latavius Murray 2.5 1.0 1.5 10.0 11.5 22% 4
53. Todd Gurley 2.3 0.3 2.0 7.3 9.3 25% 3
54. Zack Moss 2.3 1.0 1.3 8.3 9.7 24% 3
55. Frank Gore 2.3 0.8 1.5 10.5 12.0 19% 4
56. Jeremy McNichols 2.3 0.5 1.8 5.3 7.0 32% 4
57. Jordan Wilkins 2.3 0.0 2.3 4.0 6.3 36% 4
58. Buddy Howell 2.0 0.0 2.0 11.0 13.0 15% 1
59. Darrell Henderson 2.0 0.3 1.8 5.8 7.5 27% 4
60. Lamical Perine 2.0 1.0 1.0 8.0 9.0 22% 1
61. Sony Michel 2.0 1.0 1.0 8.5 9.5 21% 2
62. Trayveon Williams 2.0 0.0 2.0 6.5 8.5 24% 2
63. Jamaal Williams 1.8 0.8 1.0 9.3 10.3 17% 4
64. Tony Pollard 1.8 0.5 1.3 7.0 8.3 21% 4
65. James Conner 1.5 0.0 1.5 11.5 13.0 12% 2
66. Peyton Barber 1.5 0.8 0.8 11.3 12.0 13% 4
67. Samaje Perine 1.5 0.3 1.3 4.5 5.8 26% 4
68. Alfred Morris 1.3 1.0 0.3 5.0 5.3 25% 3
69. Josh Adams 1.0 0.3 0.7 5.0 5.7 18% 3
70. LeSean McCoy 1.0 0.0 1.0 4.0 5.0 20% 1
71. Matt Breida 1.0 0.0 1.0 5.0 6.0 17% 2
72. Rodney Smith 1.0 0.0 1.0 5.7 6.7 15% 3
73. Phillip Lindsay 0.8 0.0 0.8 12.5 13.3 6% 4
74. Anthony McFarland 0.7 0.0 0.7 3.3 4.0 17% 3
75. Gus Edwards 0.7 0.7 0.0 6.3 6.3 11% 3
76. Brian Hill 0.5 0.0 0.5 5.8 6.3 8% 4
77. Mark Ingram 0.5 0.0 0.5 4.0 4.5 11% 2
78. Bo Scarbrough 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 6.0 0% 1
79. Jordan Howard 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 4.0 0% 1
80. Royce Freeman 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.0 8.0 0% 1

 


Game-Script Touch Shares

Some players get the ball more when their team is leading (think LeGarrette Blount), while others get the ball more when their team is trailing (think James White). This table shows each player’s touch share -- the percentage of a team’s plays that went to a player -- while playing in neutral game script (in-game winning percentage between 34-66%), while trailing (0-33%), and while leading (67-100%). Please note that I removed players who have missed a game within the last four weeks. All touch shares are from over the last four weeks. Beware of small samples when a team has few plays within a game script.

Player Neutral Trailing Leading Game Script Bump
TEN Derrick Henry 57% 28% 42%  
MIN Dalvin Cook 57% 30% 48% Positive
JAX James Robinson 51% 25% 29%  
NE Damien Harris 40% 19% 23%  
CLE Nick Chubb 40% NA 30%  
DAL Ezekiel Elliott 39% 28% 21%  
ARI Kenyan Drake 39% 27% 30%  
CHI David Montgomery 39% 29% 28%  
SF Raheem Mostert 36% 14% 22%  
GB Aaron Jones 36% NA 25%  
NYJ Frank Gore 35% 22% NA  
PHI Miles Sanders 33% 20% 32%  
NYG Wayne Gallman 32% 41% 37%  
TB Ronald Jones 30% 14% 38%  
CAR Mike Davis 29% 33% 29%  
CIN Giovani Bernard 29% 13% NA  
NO Alvin Kamara 29% 34% 24%  
DEN Phillip Lindsay 28% 10% 27%  
DEN Melvin Gordon 24% 36% 26%  
IND Nyheim Hines 23% 20% 11%  
BUF Devin Singletary 23% NA 24%  
SEA Carlos Hyde 23% 5% 25% Positive
DET Kerryon Johnson 23% 13% NA  
DET Adrian Peterson 21% 16% NA  
NYJ Ty Johnson 21% 17% NA  
LA Cam Akers 20% 13% 38% Positive
KC Le'Veon Bell 19% 0% 9%  
WAS J.D. McKissic 18% 29% 13% Negative
ATL Ito Smith 17% 11% 24%  
NO Latavius Murray 17% 7% 24%  
LV Devontae Booker 16% 14% 33%  
CAR Rodney Smith 16% 8% 9%  
BAL Gus Edwards 15% 8% 9%  
NE Cam Newton 15% 11% 18%  
ARI Chase Edmonds 15% 15% 20%  
HOU Deshaun Watson 14% 13% 13%  
LA Darrell Henderson 14% 13% 9%  
CLE Kareem Hunt 13% NA 29%  
BUF Zack Moss 13% NA 18%  
SF Jeff Wilson 12% 17% 32% Positive
ATL Brian Hill 10% 7% 17%  
DAL Tony Pollard 10% 13% 25%  
NE James White 10% 16% 10%  
WAS Peyton Barber 10% 19% 31%  
ARI Kyler Murray 10% 8% 14%  
PHI Boston Scott 10% 13% 6%  

 

 


Week 15 Fantasy Usage Model

1. Situational RB Touches (Sunday Night)

2. Targets Aren't Equal (Monday Night)

3. Air Yards Report (Monday Night)

4. Usage Model Notes (Tuesday)

Follow me on Twitter (@HaydenWinks).