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Fantasy Usage Model

Situational RB Touches: A Week 15 Recap

by Hayden Winks
Updated On: December 21, 2020, 12:11 pm ET

Opportunity matters more than talent in fantasy football, but not all touches are created equal. We have to go beyond just "carries" to analyze how a player is being involved, especially at running back where players are used in all kinds of ways. "Situational RB Touches" will break down which running backs are being used optimally and which running backs are only seeing low-value touches. 


Week 15 Situational RB Touches

One way to look at how running backs are used is by separating third-down touches from early-down touches (touches on 1st or 2nd down). In a perfect world, running backs would have high touch totals in both situations, plus dominate touches inside the 10-yard line. Those are shown below, as well as “Pass Situation Targets”. The goal with this metric is to find the running backs who play on obvious passing downs because we want bankable targets from our fantasy running backs. “Pass Situation Targets” include targets during two-minute drills, targets on 3rd- or 4th-and-long, or targets while clearly trailing (all while removing garbage time). If that’s too much to think about, it’s essentially the type of plays where you’re screaming at the TV because Giovani Bernard is playing over Joe Mixon. We’ve all been there.

Player Early Downs Third Down Inside 10 Passing Situation Targets
ARI Chase Edmonds 14 2 2 2
ARI Kenyan Drake 12 0 0 0
ATL Ito Smith 8 1 0 0
ATL Brian Hill 7 0 0 0
ATL Keith Smith 2 1 0 1
ATL Todd Gurley 1 2 0 2
BAL J.K. Dobbins 12 3 2 0
BAL Gus Edwards 10 1 2 0
BAL Patrick Ricard 3 0 0 0
BAL Justice Hill 0 1 0 0
BUF Devin Singletary 9 2 0 0
BUF Zack Moss 11 1 2 0
CAR Mike Davis 14 2 0 1
CAR Rodney Smith 5 2 0 3
CAR Alex Armah 1 0 0 1
CHI David Montgomery 30 4 5 0
CLE Nick Chubb 15 2 5 0
CLE Kareem Hunt 7 3 0 0
CLE D'Ernest Johnson 2 2 0 0
DAL Tony Pollard 18 3 3 2
DEN Melvin Gordon 13 2 2 2
DEN Phillip Lindsay 13 1 0 1
DEN Royce Freeman 1 0 0 0
DET D'Andre Swift 18 2 4 3
DET Adrian Peterson 6 0 2 0
GB Aaron Jones 22 2 2 0
GB Jamaal Williams 3 0 0 0
GB AJ Dillon 1 0 0 0
HOU Duke Johnson 13 6 0 9
HOU Buddy Howell 5 0 0 0
HOU Scottie Phillips 3 0 0 0
IND Jonathan Taylor 18 3 2 1
IND Nyheim Hines 7 1 0 1
JAX James Robinson 15 4 1 1
JAX Dare Ogunbowale 2 1 0 1
JAX Devine Ozigbo 0 1 0 0
KC Clyde Edwards-Helaire 16 1 2 0
KC Le'Veon Bell 16 0 2 0
KC Darrel Williams 2 1 0 0
LA Cam Akers 17 1 1 2
LA Darrell Henderson 2 0 0 1
LA Malcolm Brown 0 2 0 1
LAC Austin Ekeler 17 0 2 1
LAC Kalen Ballage 7 1 2 0
LAC Joshua Kelley 2 0 0 0
LAC Gabe Nabers 1 0 0 0
LV Josh Jacobs 26 3 7 1
LV Devontae Booker 3 0 0 0
LV Jalen Richard 1 0 0 0
LV Theo Riddick 1 0 0 0
MIA Salvon Ahmed 24 2 5 1
MIA Matt Breida 12 0 0 0
MIA Patrick Laird 0 3 0 1
MIN Dalvin Cook 26 2 6 3
MIN Alexander Mattison 2 0 0 1
NE Sony Michel 11 0 0 0
NE James White 4 2 0 2
NE Jakob Johnson 1 0 0 0
NE J.J. Taylor 1 0 0 0
NO Alvin Kamara 16 1 0 3
NO Latavius Murray 7 0 0 1
NYG Alfred Morris 7 0 0 0
NYG Dion Lewis 2 1 1 0
NYG Elijhaa Penny 1 1 0 0
NYG Wayne Gallman 8 0 1 0
NYJ Frank Gore 19 4 5 1
NYJ Ty Johnson 3 6 0 2
PHI Miles Sanders 17 2 3 1
PHI Boston Scott 1 0 0 1
SEA Chris Carson 17 1 0 0
SEA Carlos Hyde 2 3 0 2
SEA Rashaad Penny 2 0 0 0
SF Jeff Wilson 19 1 3 1
SF Raheem Mostert 11 3 2 0
SF Kyle Juszczyk 3 1 1 1
SF Tevin Coleman 3 0 0 0
SF Jerick McKinnon 1 1 0 1
TB Leonard Fournette 17 2 2 1
TB Ke'Shawn Vaughn 3 0 0 1
TB LeSean McCoy 1 2 0 2
TEN Derrick Henry 25 1 2 0
TEN Darrynton Evans 9 1 5 0
TEN Jeremy McNichols 1 0 0 1
WAS J.D. McKissic 21 2 1 5
WAS Peyton Barber 3 2 1 0

 


Week 15 Garbage Time Eaters

Percentage of a player’s touches that came when @nflfastR’s in-game winning percentage was less than 10% or greater than 90%. This is when backups enter the game, but it’s not always a bad thing. Use your judgement. Minimum four touches and 50% “Garbage Rate”.

Player Garbage Rate Garbage Touch Total Touches
Darrynton Evans 100% 10 10
Zack Moss 77% 10 13
Gus Edwards 73% 8 11
James Robinson 63% 12 19
Aaron Jones 63% 15 24
J.K. Dobbins 60% 9 15
Phillip Lindsay 57% 8 14
Devin Singletary 55% 6 11
James White 50% 3 6
Kareem Hunt 50% 5 10

 

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Golden Opportunities

As shown graphically here, targets and opportunities near the goal line are by far the most valuable types of touches for fantasy RBs. I've combined them to create "Golden Opportunities", which are targets plus inside-the-10-yard line touches. The players in the table are sorted by golden opportunities per game over the last four weeks (min. three carries per game and 0.1 golden opportunities per game). “Inside-10” are targets plus carries within 10 yards of the end zone over the last four weeks. “Opps” are opportunities, which are targets plus carries. "Golden Opp %" is the percentage of opportunities that are golden opportunities. The higher, the better for all categories.

Player Golden Opps Inside 10 Targets Carries Opps Golden Opp % Last 4 Games
1. Austin Ekeler 11.3 1.8 9.5 12.5 22.0 51% 4
2. Dalvin Cook 8.5 3.0 5.5 24.0 29.5 29% 4
3. D'Andre Swift 8.5 3.5 5.0 11.0 16.0 53% 2
4. Myles Gaskin 8.0 6.0 2.0 21.0 23.0 35% 1
5. Salvon Ahmed 8.0 5.0 3.0 23.0 26.0 31% 1
6. J.D. McKissic 7.3 0.8 6.5 7.5 14.0 52% 4
7. Darrynton Evans 7.0 5.0 2.0 8.0 10.0 70% 1
8. James Robinson 7.0 2.3 4.8 17.0 21.8 32% 4
9. Nyheim Hines 6.5 1.5 5.0 7.0 12.0 54% 4
10. Josh Jacobs 6.3 2.7 3.7 15.3 19.0 33% 3
11. Mike Davis 6.3 1.7 4.7 13.3 18.0 35% 3
12. David Montgomery 6.3 2.3 4.0 17.8 21.8 29% 4
13. Chase Edmonds 6.0 0.8 5.3 7.5 12.8 47% 4
14. Duke Johnson 6.0 0.3 5.8 6.8 12.5 48% 4
15. DeAndre Washington 6.0 1.5 4.5 13.0 17.5 34% 2
16. Kenyan Drake 6.0 3.5 2.5 16.3 18.8 32% 4
17. Leonard Fournette 6.0 2.0 4.0 8.5 12.5 48% 2
18. Alvin Kamara 5.8 0.5 5.3 12.0 17.3 33% 4
19. Ezekiel Elliott 5.7 1.7 4.0 13.3 17.3 33% 3
20. Antonio Gibson 5.5 2.0 3.5 11.0 14.5 38% 2
21. Benny Snell 5.3 3.0 2.3 9.0 11.3 47% 3
22. Cam Akers 5.3 3.5 1.8 18.5 20.3 26% 4
23. Jeff Wilson 5.3 2.3 3.0 11.5 14.5 36% 4
24. Nick Chubb 5.3 3.3 2.0 17.3 19.3 27% 4
25. Tony Pollard 4.8 1.3 3.5 8.8 12.3 39% 4
26. Jonathan Taylor 4.7 1.3 3.3 16.3 19.7 24% 3
27. Chris Carson 4.5 0.5 4.0 12.0 16.0 28% 4
28. Kareem Hunt 4.5 0.8 3.8 9.3 13.0 35% 4
29. Aaron Jones 4.0 1.0 3.0 16.8 19.8 20% 4
30. Clyde Edwards-Helaire 4.0 0.7 3.3 13.7 17.0 24% 3
31. Miles Sanders 4.0 1.3 2.8 11.8 14.5 28% 4
32. Carlos Hyde 3.8 1.5 2.3 8.5 10.8 35% 4
33. Derrick Henry 3.5 1.3 2.3 23.0 25.3 14% 4
34. Le'Veon Bell 3.5 1.3 2.3 8.3 10.5 33% 4
35. Melvin Gordon 3.5 1.3 2.3 12.8 15.0 23% 4
36. Ronald Jones 3.5 1.5 2.0 13.5 15.5 23% 2
37. Ty Johnson 3.5 1.0 2.5 8.8 11.3 31% 4
38. Wayne Gallman 3.5 1.3 2.3 15.3 17.5 20% 4
39. Kerryon Johnson 3.3 0.7 2.7 5.3 8.0 42% 3
40. Adrian Peterson 3.3 2.8 0.5 10.3 10.8 30% 4
41. Ito Smith 3.3 0.5 2.8 9.3 12.0 27% 4
42. Damien Harris 3.0 2.0 1.0 13.7 14.7 20% 3
43. Devin Singletary 3.0 0.3 2.8 11.0 13.8 22% 4
44. David Johnson 3.0 1.0 2.0 10.0 12.0 25% 1
45. Kalen Ballage 3.0 1.0 2.0 7.3 9.3 32% 3
46. Raheem Mostert 3.0 1.3 1.8 13.3 15.0 20% 4
47. Latavius Murray 2.8 1.0 1.8 8.0 9.8 28% 4
48. Giovani Bernard 2.7 0.0 2.7 7.7 10.3 26% 3
49. Jordan Wilkins 2.7 0.0 2.7 4.0 6.7 40% 3
50. Devontae Booker 2.5 0.3 2.3 7.0 9.3 27% 4
51. Frank Gore 2.5 1.3 1.3 12.5 13.8 18% 4
52. J.K. Dobbins 2.3 2.0 0.3 12.7 13.0 18% 3
53. Rodney Smith 2.3 0.0 2.3 4.3 6.7 35% 3
54. Todd Gurley 2.3 0.3 2.0 5.0 7.0 33% 3
55. Jeremy McNichols 2.3 0.5 1.8 5.3 7.0 32% 4
56. Zack Moss 2.3 1.3 1.0 9.5 10.5 21% 4
57. Trayveon Williams 2.0 0.0 2.0 6.5 8.5 24% 2
58. Gus Edwards 1.8 1.0 0.8 8.0 8.8 20% 4
59. Peyton Barber 1.8 0.8 1.0 10.3 11.3 16% 4
60. Sony Michel 1.7 0.7 1.0 9.0 10.0 17% 3
61. Jamaal Williams 1.5 0.5 1.0 8.3 9.3 16% 4
62. Phillip Lindsay 1.5 0.0 1.5 11.3 12.8 12% 4
63. Darrell Henderson 1.3 0.0 1.3 4.0 5.3 24% 4
64. Anthony McFarland 1.0 0.0 1.0 3.5 4.5 22% 2
65. Alfred Morris 1.0 0.8 0.3 5.5 5.8 17% 4
66. Brian Hill 1.0 0.0 1.0 6.0 7.0 14% 4
67. Buddy Howell 1.0 0.0 1.0 8.0 9.0 11% 2
68. Darrel Williams 1.0 0.0 1.0 4.5 5.5 18% 2
69. Josh Adams 1.0 0.3 0.7 5.0 5.7 18% 3
70. Matt Breida 1.0 0.0 1.0 10.0 11.0 9% 2
71. Mark Ingram 1.0 0.0 1.0 6.0 7.0 14% 1
72. Samaje Perine 1.0 0.0 1.0 4.3 5.3 19% 3
73. D'Onta Foreman 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 4.0 0% 1
74. James Conner 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.0 10.0 0% 1
75. Jordan Howard 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 4.0 0% 1
76. Royce Freeman 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.5 4.5 0% 2

 


Game-Script Touch Shares

Some players get the ball more when their team is leading (think LeGarrette Blount), while others get the ball more when their team is trailing (think James White). This table shows each player’s touch share -- the percentage of a team’s plays that went to a player -- while playing in neutral game script (in-game winning percentage between 34-66%), while trailing (0-33%), and while leading (67-100%). Please note that I removed players who have missed a game within the last four weeks. All touch shares are from over the last four weeks. Beware of small samples when a team has few plays within a game script.

Player Neutral Trailing Leading Game Script Bump
TEN Derrick Henry 61% 22% 40% Positive
MIN Dalvin Cook 54% 34% 48%  
JAX James Robinson 52% 29% 29%  
GB Aaron Jones 39% NA 31%  
CHI David Montgomery 36% 29% 39%  
ARI Kenyan Drake 36% 27% 24%  
CLE Nick Chubb 35% 18% 29%  
SF Raheem Mostert 33% 16% 22%  
NYJ Frank Gore 32% 20% 32%  
LA Cam Akers 31% 24% 44% Positive
NO Alvin Kamara 31% 32% 26%  
PHI Miles Sanders 31% 20% 32%  
CAR Mike Davis 30% 30% 27%  
NYG Wayne Gallman 29% 29% 37%  
DEN Phillip Lindsay 29% 17% 25%  
LAC Austin Ekeler 28% 36% 35%  
DEN Melvin Gordon 27% 30% 22%  
CIN Giovani Bernard 26% 14% NA  
NYJ Ty Johnson 24% 20% 20%  
BUF Devin Singletary 24% NA 22%  
DET Adrian Peterson 23% 13% NA  
ATL Ito Smith 22% 13% 22%  
NE Cam Newton 22% 14% 19%  
SEA Chris Carson 22% 36% 25%  
IND Nyheim Hines 20% 23% 17%  
NO Latavius Murray 19% 12% 19%  
WAS J.D. McKissic 19% 31% 11%  
BAL Gus Edwards 19% 16% 14%  
KC Le'Veon Bell 18% NA 14%  
SEA Carlos Hyde 17% 5% 21%  
SF Jeff Wilson 16% 20% 32%  

 


Week 16 Fantasy Usage Model

1. Situational RB Touches (Sunday Night)

2. Targets Aren't Equal (Monday Night)

3. Air Yards Report (Monday Night)

4. Usage Model Notes (Tuesday)

Follow me on Twitter (@HaydenWinks).