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Fantasy Usage Model

Targets Aren't Created Equal: Week 10 Recap

by Hayden Winks
Updated On: November 17, 2020, 4:14 pm ET

Targets aren't created equal for fantasy football. It's easier to complete a pass over the middle compared to near the sideline. As you can see in the chart below, "sideline targets" are worth 1.58 PPR points on average, while "middle targets" are worth 1.83 PPR points, a difference of +0.25 PPR points per target. That can add up.

Air yards -- the distance the ball traveled from the line of scrimmage to the receiver at the catch point -- are also worth tracking. The further downfield a target travels, the more valuable it is. On average, "shallow targets" (under 10 air yards) are worth 1.51 PPR points, while "deep targets" (20+ air yards) are worth 2.07 PPR points, a difference of +0.56 PPR points per target. Once again, that can add up. With this said, deep targets are far more volatile. That means receivers who have a high deep target percentage will be boom-bust fantasy assets. Think prime DeSean Jackson (if you're a Boomer) or Marquise Brown (if you're a Gen Zer like me).

And of course, targets closer to the end zone are worth more because fantasy football is a touchdown-heavy game. Targets from 99 yards away to 21 yards away are worth about 1.5 PPR points on average, but inside the red zone, targets are worth between 1.5 to 4.0 PPR points depending on exactly how far away the team is from the goal-line. "Red zone targets" are worth tracking, as some receivers see slightly higher target shares near the red zone simply because they're bigger and more physical. The real key to predicting red zone targets is just finding receivers with high Vegas implied team totals. 

 


Targets By Type - WRs

This table covers the five target-related stats that I think are actionable: Targets per game over the last four weeks ("Targets"), target share over the last four weeks ("Share"), red zone targets per game over the entire season ("RZ"), percentage of targets over the middle ("Middle %), and percentage of targets going 20+ air yards ("Deep %"). The higher each number, the more valuable the player for fantasy football. Scroll to the right if it's cut off and flip your phone if on mobile.

Player Targets Share RZ Middle % Deep %
1. Davante Adams 13.0 38% 2.0 13% 15%
2. Cooper Kupp 11.3 27% 0.8 29% 10%
3. Tyreek Hill 11.3 30% 1.2 14% 26%
4. Stefon Diggs 10.8 30% 0.7 17% 11%
5. Brandon Aiyuk 10.7 31% 1.4 28% 12%
6. JuJu Smith-Schuster 10.5 24% 1.3 34% 6%
7. Keenan Allen 10.5 27% 1.0 18% 11%
8. Tyler Lockett 10.3 26% 1.1 27% 15%
9. Diontae Johnson 9.8 23% 0.8 18% 17%
10. Tyler Boyd 9.3 23% 1.2 43% 4%
11. Terry McLaurin 9.3 25% 0.9 24% 14%
12. Jakobi Meyers 9.3 39% 0.4 39% 16%
13. DeAndre Hopkins 9.0 26% 1.0 13% 13%
14. Jerry Jeudy 9.0 22% 0.7 28% 22%
15. Josh Reynolds 9.0 22% 0.4 15% 25%
16. Richie James 9.0 26% 1.5 33% 22%
17. Robby Anderson 8.8 28% 0.8 20% 17%
18. Brandin Cooks 8.7 27% 0.6 29% 15%
19. Julio Jones 8.7 25% 1.3 25% 16%
20. Chase Claypool 8.3 19% 0.8 25% 26%
21. DK Metcalf 8.3 21% 1.0 19% 28%
22. D.J. Chark 8.0 25% 1.0 14% 26%
23. Sterling Shepard 8.0 24% 1.0 26% 7%
24. Anthony Miller 7.8 20% 0.8 42% 14%
25. A.J. Green 7.7 19% 0.3 25% 25%
26. Travis Fulgham 7.7 22% 1.3 16% 12%
27. Tee Higgins 7.7 19% 0.9 31% 23%
28. Cole Beasley 7.5 21% 0.7 33% 9%
29. Christian Kirk 7.3 22% 0.9 7% 26%
30. Jarvis Landry 7.3 31% 0.6 22% 11%
31. Allen Robinson 7.3 19% 0.7 29% 19%
32. Corey Davis 7.3 27% 0.6 17% 6%
33. A.J. Brown 7.0 26% 1.0 29% 10%
34. Chris Godwin 7.0 18% 0.8 29% 10%
35. John Brown 7.0 19% 0.9 13% 19%
36. Michael Gallup 7.0 22% 0.6 11% 20%
37. Marvin Jones 6.8 18% 1.0 29% 12%
38. Antonio Brown 6.5 17% 0.5 23% 23%
39. Darnell Mooney 6.5 17% 0.5 11% 30%
40. Jalen Reagor 6.5 19% 0.3 33% 24%
41. KJ Hamler 6.5 16% 0.5 45% 8%
42. Mike Evans 6.5 17% 1.4 17% 13%
43. Michael Thomas 6.5 19% 1.7 28% 0%
44. Braxton Berrios 6.3 26% 0.4 18% 10%
45. Robert Woods 6.3 15% 0.8 15% 13%
46. Tim Patrick 6.3 15% 0.8 23% 33%
47. Will Fuller 6.3 20% 1.0 27% 18%
48. Curtis Samuel 6.3 20% 0.6 21% 13%
49. Amari Cooper 6.0 19% 0.9 19% 10%
50. Chris Conley 6.0 19% 0.6 12% 17%
51. Denzel Mims 6.0 24% 0.7 28% 17%
52. Justin Jefferson 6.0 27% 0.3 22% 19%
53. Larry Fitzgerald 6.0 18% 0.4 36% 4%
54. Marquez Callaway 6.0 18% 0.8 32% 0%
55. Randall Cobb 6.0 19% 0.7 35% 7%
56. Willie Snead 6.0 22% 0.6 61% 12%
57. Mike Williams 5.8 15% 0.9 11% 34%
58. CeeDee Lamb 5.7 18% 0.7 31% 19%
59. Greg Ward 5.7 17% 0.6 29% 2%
60. Zach Pascal 5.7 15% 1.2 33% 13%
61. Calvin Ridley 5.5 16% 1.6 15% 28%
62. Kenny Golladay 5.5 15% 1.0 34% 22%
63. Adam Thielen 5.3 24% 1.3 15% 23%
64. DeVante Parker 5.3 22% 0.4 23% 9%
65. Kendrick Bourne 5.3 15% 0.8 20% 4%
66. Michael Pittman 5.3 15% 0.8 25% 11%
67. Russell Gage 5.3 15% 1.1 25% 6%
68. Danny Amendola 5.3 14% 0.3 27% 9%
69. D.J. Moore 5.3 17% 0.3 25% 20%
70. Darius Slayton 5.3 16% 0.8 23% 17%
71. Damiere Byrd 5.0 21% 0.1 15% 15%
72. Mecole Hardman 5.0 13% 0.1 33% 12%
73. Preston Williams 5.0 21% 0.8 20% 29%
74. Scotty Miller 4.8 12% 0.3 7% 36%
75. Breshad Perriman 4.5 18% 0.6 13% 17%
76. Isaiah Wright 4.5 12% 0.5 15% 4%
77. Jeff Smith 4.5 18% 0.4 9% 24%
78. Nelson Agholor 4.5 18% 0.4 34% 17%
79. Marquise Brown 4.3 16% 0.4 45% 33%
80. Rashard Higgins 4.3 18% 0.3 16% 16%
81. Auden Tate 4.0 10% 0.3 6% 6%
82. DaeSean Hamilton 4.0 10% 0.4 26% 15%
83. Jakeem Grant 4.0 17% 0.2 14% 7%
84. Marvin Hall 4.0 11% 0.3 39% 35%
85. Marcus Johnson 4.0 11% 0.2 21% 33%
86. Trent Taylor 4.0 12% 1.0 35% 0%

 

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Targets By Type - TEs

This table covers the five target-related stats that I think are actionable: Targets per game over the last four weeks ("Targets"), target share over the last four weeks ("Share"), red zone targets per game over the entire season ("RZ"), percentage of targets over the middle ("Middle %), and percentage of targets going 20+ air yards ("Deep %"). The higher each number, the more valuable the player for fantasy football. Scroll to the right if it's cut off and flip your phone if on mobile.

Player Targets Share RZ Middle % Deep %
1. Travis Kelce 9.0 23% 1.4 26% 6%
2. Evan Engram 8.0 24% 1.0 25% 3%
3. Darren Waller 7.5 29% 1.6 27% 6%
4. Hayden Hurst 7.3 21% 0.6 17% 7%
5. T.J. Hockenson 7.0 19% 1.4 30% 6%
6. Mark Andrews 6.7 24% 1.2 49% 6%
7. Noah Fant 6.5 16% 0.8 32% 9%
8. Richard Rodgers 6.5 19% 0.2 22% 9%
9. Dalton Schultz 6.3 20% 0.6 31% 9%
10. Eric Ebron 6.3 15% 1.1 37% 4%
11. Hunter Henry 6.0 15% 0.7 16% 7%
12. Gerald Everett 5.7 14% 0.3 20% 0%
13. George Kittle 5.5 16% 0.7 39% 6%
14. Logan Thomas 5.3 14% 0.9 40% 12%
15. Jimmy Graham 5.3 14% 1.4 19% 4%
16. Rob Gronkowski 5.3 13% 1.1 31% 20%
17. Tyler Higbee 5.0 12% 0.4 19% 16%
18. Tyler Eifert 4.5 14% 1.0 34% 9%
19. Harrison Bryant 4.0 17% 0.4 38% 10%
20. Jared Cook 4.0 12% 1.1 38% 9%
21. Jordan Reed 4.0 12% 0.8 38% 4%

 


Targets By Team

This table covers the five target-related stats that I think are actionable: Targets per game over the last four weeks ("Targets"), target share over the last four weeks ("Share"), red zone targets per game over the entire season ("RZ"), percentage of targets over the middle ("Middle %), and percentage of targets going 20+ air yards ("Deep %"). The higher each number, the more valuable the player for fantasy football. Scroll to the right if it's cut off and flip your phone if on mobile.

Player Targets Share RZ Middle % Deep %
ARI DeAndre Hopkins 9.0 26% 1.0 13% 13%
ARI Christian Kirk 7.3 22% 0.9 7% 26%
ARI Larry Fitzgerald 6.0 18% 0.4 36% 4%
ARI Chase Edmonds 4.3 13% 0.7 21% 3%
ATL Julio Jones 8.7 25% 1.3 25% 16%
ATL Hayden Hurst 7.3 21% 0.6 17% 7%
ATL Calvin Ridley 5.5 16% 1.6 15% 28%
ATL Russell Gage 5.3 15% 1.1 25% 6%
BAL Mark Andrews 6.7 24% 1.2 49% 6%
BAL Willie Snead 6.0 22% 0.6 61% 12%
BAL Marquise Brown 4.3 16% 0.4 45% 33%
BUF Stefon Diggs 10.8 30% 0.7 17% 11%
BUF Cole Beasley 7.5 21% 0.7 33% 9%
BUF John Brown 7.0 19% 0.9 13% 19%
CAR Robby Anderson 8.8 28% 0.8 20% 17%
CAR Curtis Samuel 6.3 20% 0.6 21% 13%
CAR D.J. Moore 5.3 17% 0.3 25% 20%
CAR Mike Davis 4.5 14% 1.1 11% 0%
CHI Anthony Miller 7.8 20% 0.8 42% 14%
CHI Allen Robinson 7.3 19% 0.7 29% 19%
CHI Darnell Mooney 6.5 17% 0.5 11% 30%
CHI Jimmy Graham 5.3 14% 1.4 19% 4%
CHI David Montgomery 4.3 11% 0.7 20% 2%
CIN Tyler Boyd 9.3 23% 1.2 43% 4%
CIN A.J. Green 7.7 19% 0.3 25% 25%
CIN Tee Higgins 7.7 19% 0.9 31% 23%
CIN Giovani Bernard 5.3 13% 1.0 6% 0%
CIN Auden Tate 4.0 10% 0.3 6% 6%
CLE Jarvis Landry 7.3 31% 0.6 22% 11%
CLE Rashard Higgins 4.3 18% 0.3 16% 16%
CLE Harrison Bryant 4.0 17% 0.4 38% 10%
DAL Michael Gallup 7.0 22% 0.6 11% 20%
DAL Dalton Schultz 6.3 20% 0.6 31% 9%
DAL Amari Cooper 6.0 19% 0.9 19% 10%
DAL CeeDee Lamb 5.7 18% 0.7 31% 19%
DEN Jerry Jeudy 9.0 22% 0.7 28% 22%
DEN Noah Fant 6.5 16% 0.8 32% 9%
DEN KJ Hamler 6.5 16% 0.5 45% 8%
DEN Tim Patrick 6.3 15% 0.8 23% 33%
DEN DaeSean Hamilton 4.0 10% 0.4 26% 15%
DET T.J. Hockenson 7.0 19% 1.4 30% 6%
DET Marvin Jones 6.8 18% 1.0 29% 12%
DET Kenny Golladay 5.5 15% 1.0 34% 22%
DET Danny Amendola 5.3 14% 0.3 27% 9%
DET D'Andre Swift 4.8 13% 0.8 21% 0%
DET Marvin Hall 4.0 11% 0.3 39% 35%
GB Davante Adams 13.0 38% 2.0 13% 15%
GB Aaron Jones 5.5 16% 1.3 3% 10%
GB Jamaal Williams 5.0 15% 0.3 24% 3%
HOU Brandin Cooks 8.7 27% 0.6 29% 15%
HOU Will Fuller 6.3 20% 1.0 27% 18%
HOU Randall Cobb 6.0 19% 0.7 35% 7%
IND Zach Pascal 5.7 15% 1.2 33% 13%
IND Michael Pittman 5.3 15% 0.8 25% 11%
IND Nyheim Hines 4.7 13% 0.8 15% 2%
IND Marcus Johnson 4.0 11% 0.2 21% 33%
JAX D.J. Chark 8.0 25% 1.0 14% 26%
JAX Chris Conley 6.0 19% 0.6 12% 17%
JAX Tyler Eifert 4.5 14% 1.0 34% 9%
JAX James Robinson 4.3 14% 0.4 18% 0%
KC Tyreek Hill 11.3 30% 1.2 14% 26%
KC Travis Kelce 9.0 23% 1.4 26% 6%
KC Mecole Hardman 5.0 13% 0.1 33% 12%
KC Clyde Edwards-Helaire 4.0 10% 0.7 12% 0%
LA Cooper Kupp 11.3 27% 0.8 29% 10%
LA Josh Reynolds 9.0 22% 0.4 15% 25%
LA Robert Woods 6.3 15% 0.8 15% 13%
LA Gerald Everett 5.7 14% 0.3 20% 0%
LA Tyler Higbee 5.0 12% 0.4 19% 16%
LAC Keenan Allen 10.5 27% 1.0 18% 11%
LAC Hunter Henry 6.0 15% 0.7 16% 7%
LAC Mike Williams 5.8 15% 0.9 11% 34%
LAC Justin Jackson 5.5 14% 0.3 11% 0%
LAC Kalen Ballage 4.5 12% 0.5 11% 0%
LV Darren Waller 7.5 29% 1.6 27% 6%
LV Nelson Agholor 4.5 18% 0.4 34% 17%
MIA DeVante Parker 5.3 22% 0.4 23% 9%
MIA Preston Williams 5.0 21% 0.8 20% 29%
MIA Jakeem Grant 4.0 17% 0.2 14% 7%
MIN Justin Jefferson 6.0 27% 0.3 22% 19%
MIN Adam Thielen 5.3 24% 1.3 15% 23%
NE Jakobi Meyers 9.3 39% 0.4 39% 16%
NE Damiere Byrd 5.0 21% 0.1 15% 15%
NO Alvin Kamara 8.8 26% 1.4 19% 4%
NO Michael Thomas 6.5 19% 1.7 28% 0%
NO Marquez Callaway 6.0 18% 0.8 32% 0%
NO Jared Cook 4.0 12% 1.1 38% 9%
NYG Evan Engram 8.0 24% 1.0 25% 3%
NYG Sterling Shepard 8.0 24% 1.0 26% 7%
NYG Darius Slayton 5.3 16% 0.8 23% 17%
NYJ Braxton Berrios 6.3 26% 0.4 18% 10%
NYJ Denzel Mims 6.0 24% 0.7 28% 17%
NYJ Breshad Perriman 4.5 18% 0.6 13% 17%
NYJ Jeff Smith 4.5 18% 0.4 9% 24%
PHI Travis Fulgham 7.7 22% 1.3 16% 12%
PHI Richard Rodgers 6.5 19% 0.2 22% 9%
PHI Jalen Reagor 6.5 19% 0.3 33% 24%
PHI Greg Ward 5.7 17% 0.6 29% 2%
PIT JuJu Smith-Schuster 10.5 24% 1.3 34% 6%
PIT Diontae Johnson 9.8 23% 0.8 18% 17%
PIT Chase Claypool 8.3 19% 0.8 25% 26%
PIT Eric Ebron 6.3 15% 1.1 37% 4%
SEA Tyler Lockett 10.3 26% 1.1 27% 15%
SEA DK Metcalf 8.3 21% 1.0 19% 28%
SF Brandon Aiyuk 10.7 31% 1.4 28% 12%
SF Richie James 9.0 26% 1.5 33% 22%
SF George Kittle 5.5 16% 0.7 39% 6%
SF Kendrick Bourne 5.3 15% 0.8 20% 4%
SF Jordan Reed 4.0 12% 0.8 38% 4%
SF Trent Taylor 4.0 12% 1.0 35% 0%
TB Chris Godwin 7.0 18% 0.8 29% 10%
TB Antonio Brown 6.5 17% 0.5 23% 23%
TB Mike Evans 6.5 17% 1.4 17% 13%
TB Leonard Fournette 5.5 14% 0.6 20% 0%
TB Rob Gronkowski 5.3 13% 1.1 31% 20%
TB Scotty Miller 4.8 12% 0.3 7% 36%
TEN Corey Davis 7.3 27% 0.6 17% 6%
TEN A.J. Brown 7.0 26% 1.0 29% 10%
WAS J.D. McKissic 10.3 27% 0.8 24% 2%
WAS Terry McLaurin 9.3 25% 0.9 24% 14%
WAS Logan Thomas 5.3 14% 0.9 40% 12%
WAS Isaiah Wright 4.5 12% 0.5 15% 4%

 


The Fantasy Usage Model: Week 11

Part 1: High Value RB Touches (Sunday Night)

Part 2: Targets Aren’t Created Equal (Monday Night)

Part 3: Air Yards Report (Monday Night)

Part 4: Fantasy Usage Model Notes (Tuesday)

My Twitter: @HaydenWinks