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Fantasy Usage Model

Targets Aren't Created Equal: Week 11 Recap

by Hayden Winks
Updated On: November 24, 2020, 1:26 am ET

Targets aren't created equal for fantasy football. It's easier to complete a pass over the middle compared to near the sideline. As you can see in the chart below, "sideline targets" are worth 1.58 PPR points on average, while "middle targets" are worth 1.83 PPR points, a difference of +0.25 PPR points per target. That can add up.

Air yards -- the distance the ball traveled from the line of scrimmage to the receiver at the catch point -- are also worth tracking. The further downfield a target travels, the more valuable it is. On average, "shallow targets" (under 10 air yards) are worth 1.51 PPR points, while "deep targets" (20+ air yards) are worth 2.07 PPR points, a difference of +0.56 PPR points per target. Once again, that can add up. With this said, deep targets are far more volatile. That means receivers who have a high deep target percentage will be boom-bust fantasy assets. Think prime DeSean Jackson (if you're a Boomer) or Marquise Brown (if you're a Gen Zer like me).

And of course, targets closer to the end zone are worth more because fantasy football is a touchdown-heavy game. Targets from 99 yards away to 21 yards away are worth about 1.5 PPR points on average, but inside the red zone, targets are worth between 1.5 to 4.0 PPR points depending on exactly how far away the team is from the goal-line. "Red zone targets" are worth tracking, as some receivers see slightly higher target shares near the red zone simply because they're bigger and more physical. The real key to predicting red zone targets is just finding receivers with high Vegas implied team totals. 

 


Targets By Type - WRs

This table covers the five target-related stats that I think are actionable: Targets per game over the last four weeks ("Targets"), target share over the last four weeks ("Share"), red zone targets per game over the entire season ("RZ"), percentage of targets over the middle ("Middle %), and percentage of targets going 20+ air yards ("Deep %"). The higher each number, the more valuable the player for fantasy football. Scroll to the right if it's cut off and flip your phone if on mobile.

Player Targets Share RZ Middle % Deep %
1. Cooper Kupp 13.7 29% 1.0 29% 9%
2. Tyreek Hill 12.7 28% 1.4 15% 23%
3. Brandon Aiyuk 12.5 33% 1.4 28% 12%
4. Keenan Allen 12.0 30% 1.2 18% 9%
5. Davante Adams 11.0 32% 1.9 18% 14%
6. Stefon Diggs 10.7 31% 0.7 17% 11%
7. Jerry Jeudy 10.0 25% 0.7 25% 25%
8. Chase Claypool 10.0 24% 0.7 22% 28%
9. Diontae Johnson 10.0 24% 0.7 17% 15%
10. Robert Woods 9.7 20% 0.8 16% 11%
11. Tee Higgins 9.3 24% 0.8 31% 27%
12. Robby Anderson 9.0 27% 0.7 20% 16%
13. Richie James 9.0 24% 1.5 33% 22%
14. Anthony Miller 8.7 22% 0.8 42% 14%
15. Tyler Boyd 8.7 22% 1.1 44% 5%
16. Antonio Brown 8.7 21% 0.3 19% 19%
17. Jakobi Meyers 8.5 30% 0.3 37% 15%
18. Allen Robinson 8.3 21% 0.7 29% 19%
19. D.J. Chark 8.3 24% 0.9 14% 24%
20. Josh Reynolds 8.3 17% 0.5 20% 24%
21. Michael Thomas 8.3 28% 2.3 20% 0%
22. JuJu Smith-Schuster 8.3 20% 1.2 35% 7%
23. DK Metcalf 8.3 24% 1.0 19% 27%
24. Mike Evans 8.3 20% 1.5 18% 14%
25. Michael Gallup 8.0 23% 0.5 12% 20%
26. Sterling Shepard 8.0 24% 1.0 26% 7%
27. Terry McLaurin 8.0 21% 1.0 26% 15%
28. DeAndre Hopkins 7.7 24% 0.9 11% 11%
29. Tim Patrick 7.7 19% 0.7 25% 32%
30. Tyler Lockett 7.5 22% 1.1 24% 14%
31. Kendrick Bourne 7.5 20% 0.8 20% 4%
32. Brandin Cooks 7.3 23% 0.7 30% 15%
33. Chris Godwin 7.3 18% 0.9 29% 10%
34. Curtis Samuel 7.3 22% 0.8 19% 12%
35. KJ Hamler 7.3 18% 0.4 41% 9%
36. Russell Gage 7.0 21% 1.0 23% 6%
37. John Brown 7.0 20% 0.9 13% 19%
38. Will Fuller 7.0 22% 0.9 26% 19%
39. D.J. Moore 6.8 20% 0.5 23% 21%
40. Marvin Jones 6.8 18% 0.9 28% 12%
41. Mike Williams 6.8 17% 0.8 12% 33%
42. Adam Thielen 6.8 29% 1.5 14% 22%
43. A.J. Brown 6.8 25% 1.1 29% 8%
44. Christian Kirk 6.7 21% 0.8 6% 25%
45. Larry Fitzgerald 6.7 21% 0.4 33% 5%
46. Chris Conley 6.7 19% 0.5 11% 17%
47. Damiere Byrd 6.7 24% 0.1 19% 15%
48. Calvin Ridley 6.5 20% 1.4 17% 27%
49. Corey Davis 6.5 24% 0.5 18% 9%
50. Julio Jones 6.3 19% 1.1 28% 16%
51. Darnell Mooney 6.3 16% 0.5 11% 30%
52. A.J. Green 6.3 16% 0.5 27% 23%
53. Denzel Mims 6.3 24% 0.5 19% 31%
54. Travis Fulgham 6.3 20% 1.1 16% 13%
55. Willie Snead 6.3 23% 0.8 55% 13%
56. DeVante Parker 6.3 23% 0.6 22% 8%
57. Cole Beasley 6.0 17% 0.7 33% 9%
58. Jarvis Landry 6.0 29% 0.5 21% 11%
59. Amari Cooper 6.0 17% 0.8 18% 10%
60. CeeDee Lamb 6.0 17% 0.8 30% 18%
61. Braxton Berrios 6.0 23% 0.4 18% 10%
62. Jalen Reagor 6.0 19% 0.6 27% 19%
63. Justin Jefferson 5.8 24% 0.3 22% 22%
64. Danny Amendola 5.7 15% 0.3 27% 9%
65. Darius Slayton 5.7 17% 0.8 23% 17%
66. Breshad Perriman 5.5 21% 0.5 11% 25%
67. Demarcus Robinson 5.3 12% 0.7 21% 16%
68. Zach Pascal 5.0 14% 1.1 35% 13%
69. Preston Williams 5.0 18% 0.8 20% 29%
70. Greg Ward 5.0 16% 0.5 27% 4%
71. Michael Pittman 4.8 13% 0.7 29% 10%
72. Keelan Cole 4.7 13% 0.4 30% 20%
73. Mecole Hardman 4.7 10% 0.1 35% 12%
74. Marvin Hall 4.5 12% 0.2 35% 31%
75. Nelson Agholor 4.5 19% 0.7 34% 21%
76. Jakeem Grant 4.5 17% 0.3 15% 15%
77. Jeff Smith 4.5 17% 0.3 9% 24%
78. Auden Tate 4.3 11% 0.4 5% 5%
79. DaeSean Hamilton 4.3 11% 0.4 26% 15%
80. T.Y. Hilton 4.3 12% 0.6 14% 14%
81. Marquez Valdes-Scantling 4.3 13% 0.5 14% 37%
82. Marquise Brown 4.0 14% 0.4 47% 33%
83. Byron Pringle 4.0 9% 0.3 27% 27%
84. Golden Tate 4.0 12% 0.4 41% 6%
85. Trent Taylor 4.0 11% 1.0 35% 0%

 

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Targets By Type - TEs

This table covers the five target-related stats that I think are actionable: Targets per game over the last four weeks ("Targets"), target share over the last four weeks ("Share"), red zone targets per game over the entire season ("RZ"), percentage of targets over the middle ("Middle %), and percentage of targets going 20+ air yards ("Deep %"). The higher each number, the more valuable the player for fantasy football. Scroll to the right if it's cut off and flip your phone if on mobile.

Player Targets Share RZ Middle % Deep %
1. Travis Kelce 11.3 25% 1.4 29% 7%
2. Evan Engram 7.7 23% 1.0 25% 3%
3. T.J. Hockenson 7.3 20% 1.3 28% 5%
4. Dalton Schultz 7.0 20% 0.8 30% 8%
5. Darren Waller 7.0 29% 1.6 25% 7%
6. Mark Andrews 6.8 24% 1.2 50% 8%
7. Noah Fant 6.0 15% 0.9 29% 9%
8. Hunter Henry 6.0 15% 0.9 20% 6%
9. Eric Ebron 6.0 14% 1.1 38% 5%
10. Hayden Hurst 5.7 17% 0.6 16% 7%
11. Gerald Everett 5.7 12% 0.3 20% 0%
12. Logan Thomas 5.7 15% 0.8 39% 11%
13. Jimmy Graham 5.0 13% 1.4 19% 4%
14. Rob Gronkowski 4.8 12% 1.1 29% 18%
15. Tyler Eifert 4.7 13% 1.0 35% 11%
16. Tyler Higbee 4.7 10% 0.3 17% 14%
17. Dallas Goedert 4.3 14% 0.5 42% 13%
18. Robert Tonyan 4.3 13% 0.6 19% 16%
19. Anthony Firkser 4.3 16% 0.6 46% 3%
20. Trey Burton 4.0 11% 1.0 31% 3%
21. Mike Gesicki 4.0 15% 0.9 33% 15%
22. Jordan Reed 4.0 11% 0.8 38% 4%
23. Jonnu Smith 4.0 15% 1.3 31% 4%

 


Targets By Team

This table covers the five target-related stats that I think are actionable: Targets per game over the last four weeks ("Targets"), target share over the last four weeks ("Share"), red zone targets per game over the entire season ("RZ"), percentage of targets over the middle ("Middle %), and percentage of targets going 20+ air yards ("Deep %"). The higher each number, the more valuable the player for fantasy football. Scroll to the right if it's cut off and flip your phone if on mobile.

Team Player Targets Share RZ Middle % Deep %
ARI DeAndre Hopkins 7.7 24% 0.9 11% 11%
ARI Christian Kirk 6.7 21% 0.8 6% 25%
ARI Larry Fitzgerald 6.7 21% 0.4 33% 5%
ATL Russell Gage 7.0 21% 1.0 23% 6%
ATL Calvin Ridley 6.5 20% 1.4 17% 27%
ATL Julio Jones 6.3 19% 1.1 28% 16%
ATL Hayden Hurst 5.7 17% 0.6 16% 7%
BAL Mark Andrews 6.8 24% 1.2 50% 8%
BAL Willie Snead 6.3 23% 0.8 55% 13%
BAL Dez Bryant 5.0 18% 0.0 0% 0%
BAL Marquise Brown 4.0 14% 0.4 47% 33%
BUF Stefon Diggs 10.7 31% 0.7 17% 11%
BUF John Brown 7.0 20% 0.9 13% 19%
BUF Cole Beasley 6.0 17% 0.7 33% 9%
CAR Christian McCaffrey 10.0 30% 0.3 11% 5%
CAR Robby Anderson 9.0 27% 0.7 20% 16%
CAR Curtis Samuel 7.3 22% 0.8 19% 12%
CAR D.J. Moore 6.8 20% 0.5 23% 21%
CHI Anthony Miller 8.7 22% 0.8 42% 14%
CHI Allen Robinson 8.3 21% 0.7 29% 19%
CHI Darnell Mooney 6.3 16% 0.5 11% 30%
CHI Jimmy Graham 5.0 13% 1.4 19% 4%
CHI David Montgomery 4.0 10% 0.7 20% 2%
CIN Tee Higgins 9.3 24% 0.8 31% 27%
CIN Tyler Boyd 8.7 22% 1.1 44% 5%
CIN A.J. Green 6.3 16% 0.5 27% 23%
CIN Giovani Bernard 5.3 14% 0.9 7% 0%
CIN Auden Tate 4.3 11% 0.4 5% 5%
CLE Jarvis Landry 6.0 29% 0.5 21% 11%
DAL Michael Gallup 8.0 23% 0.5 12% 20%
DAL Dalton Schultz 7.0 20% 0.8 30% 8%
DAL Amari Cooper 6.0 17% 0.8 18% 10%
DAL CeeDee Lamb 6.0 17% 0.8 30% 18%
DEN Jerry Jeudy 10.0 25% 0.7 25% 25%
DEN Tim Patrick 7.7 19% 0.7 25% 32%
DEN KJ Hamler 7.3 18% 0.4 41% 9%
DEN Noah Fant 6.0 15% 0.9 29% 9%
DEN DaeSean Hamilton 4.3 11% 0.4 26% 15%
DET T.J. Hockenson 7.3 20% 1.3 28% 5%
DET Marvin Jones 6.8 18% 0.9 28% 12%
DET Jamal Agnew 6.0 16% 0.3 13% 13%
DET Danny Amendola 5.7 15% 0.3 27% 9%
DET D'Andre Swift 4.7 13% 0.8 21% 0%
DET Marvin Hall 4.5 12% 0.2 35% 31%
DET Kenny Golladay 4.0 11% 1.0 34% 22%
GB Davante Adams 11.0 32% 1.9 18% 14%
GB Aaron Jones 5.0 15% 1.1 5% 9%
GB Marquez Valdes-Scantling 4.3 13% 0.5 14% 37%
GB Robert Tonyan 4.3 13% 0.6 19% 16%
GB Allen Lazard 4.0 12% 0.5 29% 19%
GB Jamaal Williams 4.0 12% 0.4 23% 3%
HOU Brandin Cooks 7.3 23% 0.7 30% 15%
HOU Will Fuller 7.0 22% 0.9 26% 19%
HOU Keke Coutee 4.0 13% 1.5 50% 0%
IND Zach Pascal 5.0 14% 1.1 35% 13%
IND Michael Pittman 4.8 13% 0.7 29% 10%
IND Nyheim Hines 4.5 13% 0.8 18% 2%
IND T.Y. Hilton 4.3 12% 0.6 14% 14%
IND Trey Burton 4.0 11% 1.0 31% 3%
JAX D.J. Chark 8.3 24% 0.9 14% 24%
JAX Chris Conley 6.7 19% 0.5 11% 17%
JAX Keelan Cole 4.7 13% 0.4 30% 20%
JAX Tyler Eifert 4.7 13% 1.0 35% 11%
JAX Chris Thompson 4.0 11% 0.7 13% 0%
KC Tyreek Hill 12.7 28% 1.4 15% 23%
KC Travis Kelce 11.3 25% 1.4 29% 7%
KC Demarcus Robinson 5.3 12% 0.7 21% 16%
KC Mecole Hardman 4.7 10% 0.1 35% 12%
KC Byron Pringle 4.0 9% 0.3 27% 27%
LA Cooper Kupp 13.7 29% 1.0 29% 9%
LA Robert Woods 9.7 20% 0.8 16% 11%
LA Josh Reynolds 8.3 17% 0.5 20% 24%
LA Gerald Everett 5.7 12% 0.3 20% 0%
LA Tyler Higbee 4.7 10% 0.3 17% 14%
LAC Keenan Allen 12.0 30% 1.2 18% 9%
LAC Mike Williams 6.8 17% 0.8 12% 33%
LAC Hunter Henry 6.0 15% 0.9 20% 6%
LAC Kalen Ballage 6.0 15% 1.3 11% 0%
LAC Justin Jackson 5.0 12% 0.3 11% 0%
LAC Troymaine Pope 4.5 11% 1.0 22% 0%
LV Darren Waller 7.0 29% 1.6 25% 7%
LV Nelson Agholor 4.5 19% 0.7 34% 21%
MIA DeVante Parker 6.3 23% 0.6 22% 8%
MIA Myles Gaskin 6.0 22% 0.9 20% 0%
MIA Preston Williams 5.0 18% 0.8 20% 29%
MIA Jakeem Grant 4.5 17% 0.3 15% 15%
MIA Mike Gesicki 4.0 15% 0.9 33% 15%
MIN Adam Thielen 6.8 29% 1.5 14% 22%
MIN Justin Jefferson 5.8 24% 0.3 22% 22%
NE Jakobi Meyers 8.5 30% 0.3 37% 15%
NE N'Keal Harry 8.0 29% 1.1 25% 0%
NE Damiere Byrd 6.7 24% 0.1 19% 15%
NE James White 5.0 18% 0.4 15% 0%
NO Michael Thomas 8.3 28% 2.3 20% 0%
NO Alvin Kamara 7.0 23% 1.3 19% 4%
NYG Sterling Shepard 8.0 24% 1.0 26% 7%
NYG Evan Engram 7.7 23% 1.0 25% 3%
NYG Darius Slayton 5.7 17% 0.8 23% 17%
NYG Golden Tate 4.0 12% 0.4 41% 6%
NYJ Denzel Mims 6.3 24% 0.5 19% 31%
NYJ Braxton Berrios 6.0 23% 0.4 18% 10%
NYJ Breshad Perriman 5.5 21% 0.5 11% 25%
NYJ Jeff Smith 4.5 17% 0.3 9% 24%
PHI Travis Fulgham 6.3 20% 1.1 16% 13%
PHI Jalen Reagor 6.0 19% 0.6 27% 19%
PHI Greg Ward 5.0 16% 0.5 27% 4%
PHI Miles Sanders 5.0 16% 0.1 17% 9%
PHI Dallas Goedert 4.3 14% 0.5 42% 13%
PIT Chase Claypool 10.0 24% 0.7 22% 28%
PIT Diontae Johnson 10.0 24% 0.7 17% 15%
PIT JuJu Smith-Schuster 8.3 20% 1.2 35% 7%
PIT Eric Ebron 6.0 14% 1.1 38% 5%
SEA DK Metcalf 8.3 24% 1.0 19% 27%
SEA Tyler Lockett 7.5 22% 1.1 24% 14%
SF Brandon Aiyuk 12.5 33% 1.4 28% 12%
SF Richie James 9.0 24% 1.5 33% 22%
SF Kendrick Bourne 7.5 20% 0.8 20% 4%
SF River Cracraft 5.0 13% 2.0 20% 0%
SF George Kittle 4.0 11% 0.7 39% 6%
SF Jordan Reed 4.0 11% 0.8 38% 4%
SF Trent Taylor 4.0 11% 1.0 35% 0%
TB Antonio Brown 8.7 21% 0.3 19% 19%
TB Mike Evans 8.3 20% 1.5 18% 14%
TB Jaydon Mickens 8.0 20% 0.5 40% 10%
TB Chris Godwin 7.3 18% 0.9 29% 10%
TB Leonard Fournette 4.8 12% 0.6 18% 0%
TB Rob Gronkowski 4.8 12% 1.1 29% 18%
TEN A.J. Brown 6.8 25% 1.1 29% 8%
TEN Corey Davis 6.5 24% 0.5 18% 9%
TEN Anthony Firkser 4.3 16% 0.6 46% 3%
TEN Jonnu Smith 4.0 15% 1.3 31% 4%
WAS J.D. McKissic 11.0 28% 0.7 26% 2%
WAS Terry McLaurin 8.0 21% 1.0 26% 15%
WAS Logan Thomas 5.7 15% 0.8 39% 11%

 


The Fantasy Usage Model: Week 12

Part 1: High Value RB Touches (Sunday Night)

Part 2: Targets Aren’t Created Equal (Monday Night)

Part 3: Air Yards Report (Monday Night)

Part 4: Fantasy Usage Model Notes (Tuesday)

My Twitter: @HaydenWinks