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Fantasy Usage Model

Targets Aren't Created Equal: Week 9 Results

by Hayden Winks
Updated On: November 10, 2020, 2:33 pm ET

Targets aren't created equal for fantasy football. It's easier to complete a pass over the middle compared to near the sideline. As you can see in the chart below, "sideline targets" are worth 1.58 PPR points on average, while "middle targets" are worth 1.83 PPR points, a difference of +0.25 PPR points per target. That can add up.

Air yards -- the distance the ball traveled from the line of scrimmage to the receiver at the catch point -- are also worth tracking. The further downfield a target travels, the more valuable it is. On average, "shallow targets" (under 10 air yards) are worth 1.51 PPR points, while "deep targets" (20+ air yards) are worth 2.07 PPR points, a difference of +0.56 PPR points per target. Once again, that can add up. With this said, deep targets are far more volatile. That means receivers who have a high deep target percentage will be boom-bust fantasy assets. Think prime DeSean Jackson (if you're a Boomer) or Marquise Brown (if you're a Gen Zer like me).

And of course, targets closer to the end zone are worth more because fantasy football is a touchdown-heavy game. Targets from 99 yards away to 21 yards away are worth about 1.5 PPR points on average, but inside the red zone, targets are worth between 1.5 to 4.0 PPR points depending on exactly how far away the team is from the goal-line. "Red zone targets" are worth tracking, as some receivers see slightly higher target shares near the red zone simply because they're bigger and more physical. The real key to predicting red zone targets is just finding receivers with high Vegas implied team totals. 

 


Targets By Type - WRs

This table covers the five target-related stats that I think are actionable: Targets per game over the last four weeks ("Targets"), target share over the last four weeks ("Share"), red zone targets per game over the entire season ("RZ"), percentage of targets over the middle ("Middle %), and percentage of targets going 20+ air yards ("Deep %"). The higher each number, the more valuable the player for fantasy football. Scroll to the right if it's cut off and flip your phone if on mobile.

Player Targets Share RZ Middle % Deep %
1. Davante Adams 12.5 37% 2.2 14% 16%
2. Cooper Kupp 12.0 29% 0.6 29% 8%
3. Keenan Allen 11.7 28% 0.9 20% 12%
4. D.J. Chark 11.0 31% 1.1 15% 26%
5. Tyler Lockett 10.7 26% 1.3 23% 13%
6. Terry McLaurin 10.3 31% 1.0 26% 14%
7. Stefon Diggs 10.0 33% 0.8 15% 10%
8. Jakobi Meyers 10.0 38% 0.3 35% 19%
9. A.J. Green 9.7 24% 0.4 24% 24%
10. DK Metcalf 9.7 23% 1.1 21% 28%
11. Tyler Boyd 9.3 23% 1.4 46% 3%
12. Travis Fulgham 9.3 26% 1.6 16% 11%
13. Diontae Johnson 9.3 25% 0.7 20% 17%
14. Tyreek Hill 9.3 26% 1.2 14% 26%
15. Julio Jones 9.0 25% 1.3 25% 16%
16. Brandin Cooks 9.0 26% 0.6 32% 15%
17. Sterling Shepard 8.7 29% 1.2 28% 6%
18. Robby Anderson 8.5 27% 0.9 21% 18%
19. Jerry Jeudy 8.3 23% 0.6 28% 21%
20. JuJu Smith-Schuster 8.3 22% 1.1 35% 5%
21. A.J. Brown 7.8 26% 1.2 29% 8%
22. DeAndre Hopkins 7.7 25% 0.9 11% 12%
23. Robert Woods 7.7 18% 0.9 15% 15%
24. Corey Davis 7.7 25% 0.7 19% 7%
25. Jamison Crowder 7.5 27% 0.8 25% 10%
26. Tee Higgins 7.3 18% 0.9 27% 23%
27. Jarvis Landry 7.3 28% 0.6 24% 10%
28. Will Fuller 7.3 21% 1.1 31% 17%
29. Josh Reynolds 7.3 17% 0.5 16% 26%
30. Chris Godwin 7.3 20% 1.0 29% 11%
31. Allen Robinson 7.3 18% 0.8 30% 17%
32. Darnell Mooney 7.3 18% 0.6 11% 31%
33. Amari Cooper 7.0 19% 0.9 19% 10%
34. CeeDee Lamb 7.0 19% 0.7 31% 19%
35. Tim Patrick 7.0 19% 0.7 21% 36%
36. Brandon Aiyuk 7.0 21% 1.3 28% 14%
37. Anthony Miller 6.8 17% 0.8 38% 12%
38. Michael Gallup 6.8 18% 0.6 11% 20%
39. Chase Claypool 6.8 18% 0.5 26% 23%
40. Curtis Samuel 6.7 22% 0.6 23% 14%
41. Christian Kirk 6.3 21% 0.9 5% 30%
42. Marcus Johnson 6.3 16% 0.2 22% 30%
43. Zach Pascal 6.3 16% 1.1 35% 15%
44. Justin Jefferson 6.3 28% 0.4 16% 20%
45. D.J. Moore 6.3 20% 0.3 27% 19%
46. Calvin Ridley 6.0 17% 1.6 15% 28%
47. Cole Beasley 6.0 20% 0.8 31% 9%
48. Mike Williams 6.0 15% 0.9 13% 33%
49. Marquez Callaway 6.0 16% 0.8 32% 0%
50. Denzel Mims 6.0 21% 0.7 28% 17%
51. Larry Fitzgerald 5.7 18% 0.4 38% 2%
52. John Brown 5.7 19% 1.0 13% 18%
53. Kenny Golladay 5.7 15% 1.0 34% 22%
54. Randall Cobb 5.7 16% 0.5 37% 5%
55. DeVante Parker 5.7 22% 0.3 22% 8%
56. Breshad Perriman 5.7 20% 0.6 13% 17%
57. Marvin Jones 5.5 15% 1.1 32% 12%
58. Braxton Berrios 5.5 19% 0.4 18% 10%
59. Deebo Samuel 5.5 17% 0.5 32% 5%
60. KJ Hamler 5.3 15% 0.4 43% 7%
61. Russell Gage 5.0 14% 1.1 25% 6%
62. Danny Amendola 5.0 14% 0.4 29% 10%
63. Scotty Miller 5.0 14% 0.4 7% 37%
64. Damiere Byrd 4.8 18% 0.1 15% 15%
65. Nelson Agholor 4.7 17% 0.5 32% 20%
66. Adam Thielen 4.7 20% 1.1 10% 24%
67. Greg Ward 4.7 13% 0.6 33% 2%
68. Kendrick Bourne 4.7 14% 0.8 23% 5%
69. Julian Edelman 4.5 17% 0.7 41% 13%
70. Darius Slayton 4.5 15% 0.9 24% 17%
71. Marquise Brown 4.3 18% 0.4 49% 33%
72. Willie Snead 4.3 18% 0.4 65% 8%
73. Keelan Cole 4.3 12% 0.4 31% 24%
74. Hunter Renfrow 4.3 16% 0.6 19% 19%
75. Preston Williams 4.3 17% 0.8 20% 29%
76. Tre'Quan Smith 4.3 12% 0.6 44% 6%
77. Jeff Smith 4.3 15% 0.4 9% 24%
78. Mike Evans 4.3 12% 1.0 17% 13%
79. Olamide Zaccheaus 4.0 11% 0.3 32% 21%
80. Auden Tate 4.0 10% 0.4 0% 7%
81. Michael Pittman 4.0 10% 0.4 30% 10%
82. Chris Conley 4.0 11% 0.6 15% 21%
83. Mecole Hardman 4.0 11% 0.1 33% 12%
84. David Moore 4.0 10% 0.9 27% 15%
85. Isaiah Wright 4.0 12% 0.4 10% 5%

 


Targets By Type - TEs

This table covers the five target-related stats that I think are actionable: Targets per game over the last four weeks ("Targets"), target share over the last four weeks ("Share"), red zone targets per game over the entire season ("RZ"), percentage of targets over the middle ("Middle %), and percentage of targets going 20+ air yards ("Deep %"). The higher each number, the more valuable the player for fantasy football. Scroll to the right if it's cut off and flip your phone if on mobile.

Player Targets Share RZ Middle % Deep %
1. Travis Kelce 8.5 24% 1.4 26% 6%
2. Darren Waller 8.3 31% 1.8 25% 4%
3. Evan Engram 8.0 26% 1.0 23% 3%
4. T.J. Hockenson 7.3 20% 1.6 33% 6%
5. George Kittle 7.0 21% 0.7 39% 6%
6. Jimmy Graham 6.8 17% 1.3 18% 4%
7. Hayden Hurst 6.5 18% 0.6 17% 7%
8. Rob Gronkowski 6.5 18% 1.1 30% 20%
9. Noah Fant 6.3 17% 0.7 28% 11%
10. Dalton Schultz 6.0 16% 0.6 31% 9%
11. Gerald Everett 6.0 14% 0.1 19% 0%
12. Hunter Henry 6.0 15% 0.6 17% 6%
13. Eric Ebron 5.8 15% 1.1 40% 5%
14. Richard Rodgers 5.5 16% 0.2 17% 11%
15. Mark Andrews 5.0 20% 1.3 48% 7%
16. Darren Fells 5.0 14% 0.4 27% 0%
17. Anthony Firkser 5.0 17% 0.4 39% 3%
18. Jared Cook 4.7 13% 1.3 38% 6%
19. Logan Thomas 4.7 14% 0.9 39% 9%
20. Trey Burton 4.3 11% 0.8 21% 4%
21. Tyler Higbee 4.0 10% 0.4 16% 12%
22. Jacob Hollister 4.0 10% 1.0 13% 7%

 

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Targets By Team

This table covers the five target-related stats that I think are actionable: Targets per game over the last four weeks ("Targets"), target share over the last four weeks ("Share"), red zone targets per game over the entire season ("RZ"), percentage of targets over the middle ("Middle %), and percentage of targets going 20+ air yards ("Deep %"). The higher each number, the more valuable the player for fantasy football. Scroll to the right if it's cut off and flip your phone if on mobile.

Team Player Targets Share RZ Middle % Deep %
ARI DeAndre Hopkins 7.7 25% 0.9 11% 12%
ARI Christian Kirk 6.3 21% 0.9 5% 30%
ARI Larry Fitzgerald 5.7 18% 0.4 38% 2%
ARI Chase Edmonds 4.0 13% 0.8 23% 3%
ATL Julio Jones 9.0 25% 1.3 25% 16%
ATL Hayden Hurst 6.5 18% 0.6 17% 7%
ATL Calvin Ridley 6.0 17% 1.6 15% 28%
ATL Russell Gage 5.0 14% 1.1 25% 6%
ATL Olamide Zaccheaus 4.0 11% 0.3 32% 21%
BAL Mark Andrews 5.0 20% 1.3 48% 7%
BAL Marquise Brown 4.3 18% 0.4 49% 33%
BAL Willie Snead 4.3 18% 0.4 65% 8%
BUF Stefon Diggs 10.0 33% 0.8 15% 10%
BUF Cole Beasley 6.0 20% 0.8 31% 9%
BUF John Brown 5.7 19% 1.0 13% 18%
CAR Christian McCaffrey 10.0 32% 0.3 11% 5%
CAR Robby Anderson 8.5 27% 0.9 21% 18%
CAR Curtis Samuel 6.7 22% 0.6 23% 14%
CAR D.J. Moore 6.3 20% 0.3 27% 19%
CAR Mike Davis 4.0 13% 1.3 10% 0%
CHI Allen Robinson 7.3 18% 0.8 30% 17%
CHI Darnell Mooney 7.3 18% 0.6 11% 31%
CHI Anthony Miller 6.8 17% 0.8 38% 12%
CHI Jimmy Graham 6.8 17% 1.3 18% 4%
CHI David Montgomery 4.5 11% 0.7 20% 2%
CIN A.J. Green 9.7 24% 0.4 24% 24%
CIN Tyler Boyd 9.3 23% 1.4 46% 3%
CIN Tee Higgins 7.3 18% 0.9 27% 23%
CIN Auden Tate 4.0 10% 0.4 0% 7%
CIN Giovani Bernard 4.0 10% 0.9 3% 0%
CLE Jarvis Landry 7.3 28% 0.6 24% 10%
CLE Austin Hooper 6.0 23% 0.3 18% 9%
DAL Amari Cooper 7.0 19% 0.9 19% 10%
DAL CeeDee Lamb 7.0 19% 0.7 31% 19%
DAL Michael Gallup 6.8 18% 0.6 11% 20%
DAL Dalton Schultz 6.0 16% 0.6 31% 9%
DAL Ezekiel Elliott 4.3 11% 0.4 20% 0%
DEN Jerry Jeudy 8.3 23% 0.6 28% 21%
DEN Tim Patrick 7.0 19% 0.7 21% 36%
DEN Noah Fant 6.3 17% 0.7 28% 11%
DEN KJ Hamler 5.3 15% 0.4 43% 7%
DEN Melvin Gordon 4.0 11% 0.3 7% 0%
DET T.J. Hockenson 7.3 20% 1.6 33% 6%
DET Kenny Golladay 5.7 15% 1.0 34% 22%
DET Marvin Jones 5.5 15% 1.1 32% 12%
DET Danny Amendola 5.0 14% 0.4 29% 10%
DET D'Andre Swift 4.5 12% 0.8 24% 0%
GB Davante Adams 12.5 37% 2.2 14% 16%
GB Aaron Jones 5.0 15% 1.5 3% 12%
GB Jamaal Williams 4.0 12% 0.3 24% 4%
GB Tyler Ervin 4.0 12% 0.2 14% 0%
HOU Brandin Cooks 9.0 26% 0.6 32% 15%
HOU Will Fuller 7.3 21% 1.1 31% 17%
HOU Randall Cobb 5.7 16% 0.5 37% 5%
HOU Darren Fells 5.0 14% 0.4 27% 0%
HOU Kenny Stills 4.0 11% 0.2 17% 17%
HOU Jordan Akins 4.0 11% 0.4 32% 5%
IND Marcus Johnson 6.3 16% 0.2 22% 30%
IND Zach Pascal 6.3 16% 1.1 35% 15%
IND Nyheim Hines 4.7 12% 0.6 14% 3%
IND Trey Burton 4.3 11% 0.8 21% 4%
IND Michael Pittman 4.0 10% 0.4 30% 10%
JAX D.J. Chark 11.0 31% 1.1 15% 26%
JAX Tyler Eifert 5.0 14% 1.0 32% 11%
JAX Keelan Cole 4.3 12% 0.4 31% 24%
JAX Chris Conley 4.0 11% 0.6 15% 21%
JAX Chris Thompson 4.0 11% 0.7 13% 0%
JAX James Robinson 4.0 11% 0.5 21% 0%
KC Tyreek Hill 9.3 26% 1.2 14% 26%
KC Travis Kelce 8.5 24% 1.4 26% 6%
KC Mecole Hardman 4.0 11% 0.1 33% 12%
KC Clyde Edwards-Helaire 4.0 11% 0.7 12% 0%
LA Cooper Kupp 12.0 29% 0.6 29% 8%
LA Robert Woods 7.7 18% 0.9 15% 15%
LA Josh Reynolds 7.3 17% 0.5 16% 26%
LA Gerald Everett 6.0 14% 0.1 19% 0%
LA Tyler Higbee 4.0 10% 0.4 16% 12%
LAC Keenan Allen 11.7 28% 0.9 20% 12%
LAC Mike Williams 6.0 15% 0.9 13% 33%
LAC Hunter Henry 6.0 15% 0.6 17% 6%
LAC Justin Jackson 5.5 13% 0.3 11% 0%
LV Darren Waller 8.3 31% 1.8 25% 4%
LV Nelson Agholor 4.7 17% 0.5 32% 20%
LV Hunter Renfrow 4.3 16% 0.6 19% 19%
MIA DeVante Parker 5.7 22% 0.3 22% 8%
MIA Myles Gaskin 5.0 19% 0.9 20% 0%
MIA Preston Williams 4.3 17% 0.8 20% 29%
MIN Justin Jefferson 6.3 28% 0.4 16% 20%
MIN Adam Thielen 4.7 20% 1.1 10% 24%
NE Jakobi Meyers 10.0 38% 0.3 35% 19%
NE Damiere Byrd 4.8 18% 0.1 15% 15%
NE James White 4.8 18% 0.5 13% 0%
NE Julian Edelman 4.5 17% 0.7 41% 13%
NO Alvin Kamara 9.0 24% 1.4 19% 4%
NO Marquez Callaway 6.0 16% 0.8 32% 0%
NO Michael Thomas 6.0 16% 1.5 27% 0%
NO Emmanuel Sanders 5.0 14% 1.5 24% 2%
NO Jared Cook 4.7 13% 1.3 38% 6%
NO Tre'Quan Smith 4.3 12% 0.6 44% 6%
NYG Sterling Shepard 8.7 29% 1.2 28% 6%
NYG Evan Engram 8.0 26% 1.0 23% 3%
NYG Darius Slayton 4.5 15% 0.9 24% 17%
NYJ Jamison Crowder 7.5 27% 0.8 25% 10%
NYJ Denzel Mims 6.0 21% 0.7 28% 17%
NYJ Breshad Perriman 5.7 20% 0.6 13% 17%
NYJ Braxton Berrios 5.5 19% 0.4 18% 10%
NYJ Jeff Smith 4.3 15% 0.4 9% 24%
PHI Zach Ertz 10.0 28% 0.8 42% 4%
PHI Travis Fulgham 9.3 26% 1.6 16% 11%
PHI Jalen Reagor 6.0 17% 0.3 29% 29%
PHI Richard Rodgers 5.5 16% 0.2 17% 11%
PHI DeSean Jackson 5.0 14% 0.5 12% 28%
PHI Greg Ward 4.7 13% 0.6 33% 2%
PIT Diontae Johnson 9.3 25% 0.7 20% 17%
PIT JuJu Smith-Schuster 8.3 22% 1.1 35% 5%
PIT Chase Claypool 6.8 18% 0.5 26% 23%
PIT Eric Ebron 5.8 15% 1.1 40% 5%
SEA Tyler Lockett 10.7 26% 1.3 23% 13%
SEA DK Metcalf 9.7 23% 1.1 21% 28%
SEA David Moore 4.0 10% 0.9 27% 15%
SEA Jacob Hollister 4.0 10% 1.0 13% 7%
SEA Carlos Hyde 4.0 10% 0.0 0% 0%
SF Brandon Aiyuk 7.0 21% 1.3 28% 14%
SF George Kittle 7.0 21% 0.7 39% 6%
SF Deebo Samuel 5.5 17% 0.5 32% 5%
SF Kendrick Bourne 4.7 14% 0.8 23% 5%
TB Jaydon Mickens 8.0 22% 0.5 40% 10%
TB Chris Godwin 7.3 20% 1.0 29% 11%
TB Rob Gronkowski 6.5 18% 1.1 30% 20%
TB Leonard Fournette 6.3 17% 0.5 22% 0%
TB Scotty Miller 5.0 14% 0.4 7% 37%
TB Mike Evans 4.3 12% 1.0 17% 13%
TEN A.J. Brown 7.8 26% 1.2 29% 8%
TEN Corey Davis 7.7 25% 0.7 19% 7%
TEN Anthony Firkser 5.0 17% 0.4 39% 3%
WAS Terry McLaurin 10.3 31% 1.0 26% 14%
WAS J.D. McKissic 7.3 22% 0.4 23% 0%
WAS Dontrelle Inman 5.0 15% 0.3 33% 7%
WAS Logan Thomas 4.7 14% 0.9 39% 9%
WAS Isaiah Wright 4.0 12% 0.4 10% 5%

 


The Fantasy Usage Model: Week 10

Part 1: High Value RB Touches (Sunday Night)

Part 2: Targets Aren’t Created Equal (Monday Night)

Part 3: Air Yards Report (Monday Night)

Part 4: Fantasy Usage Model Notes (Tuesday)

My Twitter: @HaydenWinks