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Fantasy Usage Model

Usage Model Notes: What to do with DAL WRs

by Hayden Winks
Updated On: October 28, 2020, 2:31 am ET

“The Fantasy Usage Model” simply is how many PPR fantasy points an average NFL player in an average NFL offense would’ve scored with the same exact opportunity. Read Targets Aren’t Created Equal and Carries Aren’t Created Equal if you want to see the type of variables that go into this model, but think air yards, relation to the sideline, yards from the end zone, and scheme indicator metrics. It’s a “Buy Low Model” (shoutout to the great Josh Hermsmeyer). To make things better, I manually clean the data each week with things I can adjust for that a computer wouldn’t know about (i.e. removing early-injury games) because the data is only as good as the context that comes with it. If you have questions, reach out to me on Twitter (@HaydenWinks)

Note: There are fewer context notes this week because the Irvine, CA wildfires have impacted my usual workflow. Turns out, it's hard to write when your place smells like a bonfire and you can see flames in the distance. I'll get the context notes back to normal next week. Thanks everyone!


Top 5 Rebound Candidates of Week 8

1. Mike Davis (vs. ATL) assuming no CMC

2. Jarvis Landry (vs. LV) especially without Odell

3. Hunter Henry (@ DEN)

4. CeeDee Lamb (@ PHI)

5. Jamison Crowder (@ KC) assuming he's healthy


Fantasy Usage Model - WRs

Average fantasy usage and PPR data from the last four weeks. I’ve removed injuries and noted other adjustments.

Player Fantasy Usage PPR Per Game Context
Davante Adams WR1 (21.6) WR1 (28.4) 32.1, 14.3, & 29.0 xFPs in 3 healthy games.
Emmanuel Sanders WR2 (20.3) WR7 (19.8) Recently the clear No. 1 without Thomas.
Adam Thielen WR3 (18.6) WR4 (23.2)  
Terry McLaurin WR4 (18.5) WR24 (16.0)  
Keenan Allen WR5 (18.3) WR11 (18.4) LAC set season high in neutral pass rate.
Tyler Lockett WR6 (17.6) WR5 (22.4) Set 2020 records in usage, air yards Week 7.
Tyler Boyd WR7 (17.4) WR22 (16.2) WR2 overall in usage Week 7. PPR WR2/3.
Jamison Crowder WR8 (17.4) WR12 (18.3) A PPR WR2 when healthy. Darnold back.
Julio Jones WR9 (16.7) WR2 (25.7) High-upside WR1 when healthy.
Stefon Diggs WR10 (16.7) WR20 (16.4) Schedule toughens up now but a WR1/2.
Travis Fulgham WR11 (16.6) WR8 (19.2) PHI treating as X WR. Reagor close back.
Allen Robinson WR12 (16.6) WR25 (15.9) Not always pretty but an every-week WR1/2.
Amari Cooper WR13 (16.2) WR13 (18.0) Downgrading to upside WR2 post-Dak.
A.J. Green WR14 (15.8) WR46 (11.4) Boom-bust WR3 depending on if he's trying.
D.J. Chark WR15 (15.7) WR38 (12.3) WR2 usage when healthy. Boom-bust asset.
CeeDee Lamb WR16 (15.1) WR31 (14.8) Downgrading to WR2/3 but such a stud.
DK Metcalf WR17 (15.1) WR27 (15.4) Volatile WR2 usage but elite player + MVP QB.
Odell Beckham WR18 (14.8) WR15 (17.9) Out for season. Is Jarvis truly healthy?
Will Fuller WR19 (14.8) WR10 (18.9) Week 7 victim of CB Alexander. WR2.
Robby Anderson WR20 (14.8) WR26 (15.6)  
Marquise Brown WR21 (14.5) WR34 (14.0) Most volatile WR but should average as a WR3.
Brandin Cooks WR22 (14.2) WR21 (16.2) More play action post-BOB equals WR3 status.
A.J. Brown WR23 (14.2) WR3 (23.7) Efficiency outlier on WR2/3 usage. Upside WR2.
DeAndre Hopkins WR24 (13.8) WR14 (18.0) Has been slightly slowed by ankle. Top-5 WR.
Chris Godwin WR25 (13.8) WR18 (16.8) My bet to lead TB WRs but only a WR2.
Calvin Ridley WR26 (13.4) WR32 (14.6) Top-5 WR run is over with Julio back. WR1/2.
Kenny Golladay WR27 (13.1) WR23 (16.0)  
Cooper Kupp WR28 (12.5) WR45 (11.4)  
JuJu Smith-Schuster WR29 (12.2) WR62 (9.0) WR4 when PIT goes run-heavy. WR2 if not.
Tee Higgins WR30 (12.1) WR28 (15.2)  
Chase Claypool WR31 (12.0) WR6 (20.8) Usage down with Diontae. Boom-bust WR3.
DeVante Parker WR32 (11.9) WR36 (13.5)  
Robert Woods WR33 (11.9) WR40 (12.1) Has been hurt by low-aDOT, run-first offense.
Cole Beasley WR34 (11.8) WR29 (15.1)  
Darius Slayton WR35 (11.7) WR48 (11.2)  
Tyreek Hill WR36 (11.7) WR33 (14.4) YPT outlier but coverages testing WR1 status.
D.J. Moore WR37 (11.6) WR16 (17.0)  
Zach Pascal WR38 (11.5) WR60 (9.2)  
Deebo Samuel WR39 (11.4) WR44 (11.5) WR4 usage before pulling hammy.
Justin Jefferson WR40 (11.4) WR9 (19.1) Efficiency outlier. Might trade WR1 days with AT.
Tim Patrick WR41 (11.3) WR30 (14.9)  
Christian Kirk WR42 (11.2) WR19 (16.8) A winner of Drake's injury if they pass more.
Jarvis Landry WR43 (11.1) WR55 (10.0) WR2/3 upside post Odell... if healthy.
T.Y. Hilton WR44 (10.9) WR77 (7.0)  
Randall Cobb WR45 (10.9) WR49 (11.1)  
Jeff Smith WR46 (10.3) WR83 (5.6)  
Darnell Mooney WR47 (10.3) WR78 (6.8) Foles is the king of unrealized air yards.
Laviska Shenault WR48 (10.1) WR54 (10.1)  
Brandon Aiyuk WR49 (9.9) WR43 (11.9) Re-gains WR4/flex status if Deebo misses.
Curtis Samuel WR50 (9.9) WR39 (12.2)  
Keelan Cole WR51 (9.8) WR53 (10.5)  
Josh Reynolds WR52 (9.5) WR56 (10.0)  
Mike Evans WR53 (9.4) WR42 (12.0) Slowed by ankle. Volatile WR3 with Gronk/AB.
Nelson Agholor WR54 (9.4) WR17 (16.9)  
Marquez Callaway WR55 (9.2) WR65 (8.5)  
Greg Ward WR56 (9.1) WR57 (9.9)  
Marquez Valdes-Scantling WR57 (9.1) WR87 (5.2)  
Breshad Perriman WR58 (8.9) WR69 (7.5) Left with concussion.
Mike Williams WR59 (8.9) WR35 (13.9) Big-play threat with no floor. LAC passing more.
Larry Fitzgerald WR60 (8.6) WR73 (7.3)  
Adam Humphries WR61 (8.3) WR52 (10.7)  
Michael Gallup WR62 (8.0) WR89 (5.1)  
Russell Gage WR63 (8.0) WR71 (7.4)  
Marvin Jones WR64 (7.9) WR82 (5.9)  
Damiere Byrd WR65 (7.9) WR68 (7.5)  
Julian Edelman WR66 (7.8) WR105 (3.9) Injured WR playing with injured QB.
Scotty Miller WR67 (7.6) WR51 (11.0)  
Hunter Renfrow WR68 (7.6) WR66 (8.0)  
Jerry Jeudy WR69 (7.6) WR67 (7.8)  
John Brown WR70 (7.3) WR101 (4.1)  
Preston Williams WR71 (7.3) WR50 (11.0)  
Deonte Harris WR72 (7.2) WR63 (8.8)  
Isaiah Ford WR73 (7.1) WR98 (4.4)  
Anthony Miller WR74 (7.0) WR90 (5.1)  
Marcus Johnson WR75 (6.9) WR59 (9.3)  

 


Fantasy Usage Model - TEs

Average fantasy usage and PPR data from the last four weeks. I’ve removed injuries and noted other adjustments.

Player Fantasy Usage PPR Per Game Context
Darren Waller TE1 (17.6) TE2 (16.9) Not Kelce or Kittle but close. Easily the TE3.
George Kittle TE2 (16.2) TE1 (20.7) Top-2 TE who feasts in negative script.
Travis Kelce TE3 (13.4) TE3 (16.1) Return TDs, snow played into rare dud.
Austin Hooper TE4 (12.6) TE9 (11.8) Removed Week 7. TE1 without Odell. Buy.
Rob Gronkowski TE5 (12.6) TE7 (12.0) Averaging 12.6 xFPs in last 5. Low-end TE1.
Albert Okwuegbunam TE6 (12.3) TE15 (9.8) Had TE1 usage with Fant hurt.
T.J. Hockenson TE7 (12.3) TE8 (11.8) xFPs per game: Before bye (9.4), after (12.6).
Jonnu Smith TE8 (11.1) TE10 (11.5) Removed Week 6. Athletic on TE1 usage.
Evan Engram TE9 (10.7) TE18 (8.7) Volatile TE1/2 usage. Hopefully traded.
Noah Fant TE10 (10.4) TE23 (7.7) At least 9.7 xFPs in all 5 healthy games.
Eric Ebron TE11 (10.4) TE22 (7.7) Mostly TD-dependent on TE1/2 usage.
Jimmy Graham TE12 (10.1) TE17 (9.0)  
Trey Burton TE13 (10.1) TE11 (11.3) Low-end TE1 usage since Alie-Cox injury.
Mark Andrews TE14 (9.9) TE5 (14.1) Extremely volatile but elite TE1 spikes.
Hunter Henry TE15 (9.7) TE21 (7.8) LAC had neutral pass rate jump Week 7.
Anthony Firkser TE16 (9.7) TE12 (11.0) A capable streamer if Jonnu ever misses.
Hayden Hurst TE17 (8.7) TE13 (10.1) xFPs P/G: With Julio (10.1), without (7.4).
Tyler Eifert TE18 (8.2) TE53 (2.9) Old TE in awful offense. TE3.
Dalton Schultz TE19 (7.9) TE24 (7.6) Averaging 5.8 expected PPR without Dak.
Mike Gesicki TE20 (7.9) TE31 (5.9) Only 1-of-6 games above 11.0 xFPs. TE2.
Jared Cook TE21 (7.3) TE6 (12.7) Extremely TD-dependent on TE2 usage.
Greg Olsen TE22 (7.2) TE35 (5.1) At least TD-dependent attached to Russ.
Robert Tonyan TE23 (7.0) TE4 (14.8) xFPs P/G: With Adams (9.5), without (2.8).
Irv Smith TE24 (7.0) TE27 (6.6) Entered bye with 3-straight new 2020 highs.
Logan Thomas TE25 (6.7) TE19 (8.1) Still had TE2 usage Week 7 despite TD.
Drew Sample TE26 (6.7) TE33 (5.5) Needs CIN to pass 50 times to be a TE2.
Richard Rodgers TE27 (6.3) TE25 (7.5)  
Gerald Everett TE28 (5.9) TE14 (9.9)  
Harrison Bryant TE29 (5.7) TE20 (7.9)  
Durham Smythe TE30 (5.6) TE28 (6.2)  
Dawson Knox TE31 (5.5) TE52 (3.1)  
Tyler Higbee TE32 (5.2) TE32 (5.6)  
Will Dissly TE33 (4.8) TE29 (6.1)  
Darren Fells TE34 (4.8) TE16 (9.6)  
Kyle Rudolph TE35 (4.7) TE37 (4.8)  

 

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Fantasy Usage Model - RBs

Average fantasy usage and PPR data from the last four weeks. I’ve removed injuries and noted other adjustments. For more notes, I highly recommend High Value RB Touches.

Player Fantasy Usage PPR Per Game Context
Joe Mixon RB1 (24.0) RB3 (24.1) Removed Week 7. Strong RB1 if healthy.
Alvin Kamara RB2 (21.8) RB5 (21.2) The best fantasy RB by a wide margin.
Mike Davis RB3 (20.4) RB9 (18.5) Avg. 20.6 expected PPR points post CMC.
Derrick Henry RB4 (20.2) RB1 (25.0) Slightly more boom-bust than other RB1s.
Dalvin Cook RB5 (19.6) RB2 (24.3)  
Myles Gaskin RB6 (19.2) RB17 (15.3) Touch shares: Leading (37%), trailing (21%).
James Conner RB7 (19.0) RB16 (15.5) Avg. 19.7 expected PPR points since Wk 1.
Ronald Jones RB8 (18.8) RB12 (17.8) Week 7 xFPs: Fournette (21.4), RoJo (12.1)
David Montgomery RB9 (18.8) RB23 (13.3) RB1 usage on RB6 athleticism. RB2.
David Johnson RB10 (18.4) RB22 (14.0)  
Melvin Gordon RB11 (18.1) RB6 (20.9)  
Ezekiel Elliott RB12 (18.1) RB14 (16.5) Not a top-3 RB anymore. Still a RB1.
Todd Gurley RB13 (18.0) RB8 (19.1)  
James Robinson RB14 (17.8) RB11 (17.9) RB1 without Thompson. High-end RB2 with.
Chris Carson RB15 (17.8) RB4 (22.5) Could miss a few weeks. Same with Hyde.
Aaron Jones RB16 (17.5) RB10 (18.1) Top-5 RB when healthy.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire RB17 (17.3) RB21 (14.3) Week 7 xFPs: CEH (13.3), Bell (4.8). RB2.
D'Andre Swift RB18 (15.9) RB7 (19.1) 20.0 & 16.7 expected PPR points since bye.
Kareem Hunt RB19 (15.5) RB15 (16.1) Chubb should be returning with 2-3 weeks.
Josh Jacobs RB20 (15.5) RB25 (13.0) Touch shares: Leading (45%), trailing (18%).
Antonio Gibson RB21 (15.3) RB18 (15.3) Touch shares: Leading (36%), trailing (21%).
Kenyan Drake RB22 (15.0) RB26 (12.6) Edmonds SZN.
Devonta Freeman RB23 (15.0) RB30 (11.4)  
Jamaal Williams RB24 (14.7) RB20 (14.4) Top-8 RB1 whenever Jones is out.
Darrell Henderson RB25 (14.3) RB31 (11.3)  
Jonathan Taylor RB26 (12.6) RB24 (13.3)  
Miles Sanders RB27 (12.5) RB13 (17.2) Injuries played into low ranking. Top-10 RB1.
Chase Edmonds RB28 (12.0) RB19 (15.2)  
Raheem Mostert RB29 (11.9) RB28 (12.3)  
Alexander Mattison RB30 (11.4) RB35 (9.4)  
Devin Singletary RB31 (11.4) RB39 (8.8)  
J.D. McKissic RB32 (10.9) RB32 (11.0)  
Joshua Kelley RB33 (10.6) RB44 (7.1) Week 7 xFPs: Kelley (15.9), Jackson (11.1).
Justin Jackson RB34 (10.6) RB34 (9.7) Week 7 xFPs: Kelley (15.9), Jackson (11.1).
James White RB35 (10.5) RB33 (9.8)  
Nyheim Hines RB36 (9.9) RB47 (6.3)  
Adrian Peterson RB37 (9.8) RB38 (8.8)  
Malcolm Brown RB38 (9.7) RB41 (7.7)  
Latavius Murray RB39 (9.7) RB29 (11.9)  
Phillip Lindsay RB40 (9.2) RB36 (9.0)  
Giovani Bernard RB41 (9.0) RB37 (8.9)  
Jerick McKinnon RB42 (8.5) RB42 (7.5)  
Boston Scott RB43 (8.3) RB56 (5.4)  
Frank Gore RB44 (8.2) RB49 (6.2)  
Mark Ingram RB45 (8.0) RB40 (8.2) Post-bye should mean it's Dobbins time.
Gus Edwards RB46 (7.8) RB59 (5.0)  
Tony Pollard RB47 (7.7) RB50 (6.2) 67% of Week 7 touches in garbage time.
Jeff Wilson RB48 (7.7) RB27 (12.5)  
Lamical Perine RB49 (7.5) RB45 (6.9)  
Duke Johnson RB50 (7.4) RB55 (5.4) 83% of Week 7 touches in garbage time.
J.K. Dobbins RB51 (7.1) RB57 (5.4) Post-bye rookie bump? I hope so.
Brian Hill RB52 (7.0) RB51 (5.8)  
Rex Burkhead RB53 (7.0) RB58 (5.0) 75% of Week 7 touches in garbage time.
Jeremy McNichols RB54 (6.6) RB62 (4.2)  
Jalen Richard RB55 (6.4) RB60 (4.3)  
Benny Snell RB56 (6.4) RB52 (5.7)  
Matt Breida RB57 (6.4) RB48 (6.3)  
Wayne Gallman RB58 (6.1) RB46 (6.3)  
Damien Harris RB59 (6.0) RB43 (7.4) Empty-calorie touch king.
Royce Freeman RB60 (5.2) RB72 (3.3)  
Leonard Fournette RBNA (21.4) RB (15.7) Only includes Week 7. Backfield still TBD.
Carlos Hyde RBNA (13.6) RB (16.6) Only 1 game in last four weeks.
Reggie Bonnafon RBNA (9.3) RB (15.1) Only 1 game in last four weeks.
Le'Veon Bell RBNA (8.6) RB (7.7) Only 1 game in last four weeks.
DeAndre Washington RBNA (7.5) RB (1.7) Only 1 game in last four weeks.

 


The Fantasy Usage Model: Week 8

Part 1: High Value RB Touches & Game Script (Monday)

Part 2: Targets Aren’t Created Equal (Monday Night)

Part 3: Air Yards Report (Monday Night)

Part 4: Fantasy Usage Model Notes (Tuesday)

My Twitter: @HaydenWinks