“The Fantasy Usage Model” simply is how many PPR fantasy points an average NFL player in an average NFL offense would’ve scored with the same exact opportunity. Read Targets Aren’t Created Equal and Carries Aren’t Created Equal if you want to see the type of variables that go into this model, but think air yards, relation to the sideline, yards from the end zone, and scheme indicator metrics. It’s a “Buy Low Model” (shoutout to the great Josh Hermsmeyer). To make things better, I manually clean the data each week with things I can adjust for that a computer wouldn’t know about (i.e. removing early-injury games) because the data is only as good as the context that comes with it. If you have questions, reach out to me on Twitter (@HaydenWinks).
Note: There are fewer context notes this week because the Irvine, CA wildfires have impacted my usual workflow. Turns out, it's hard to write when your place smells like a bonfire and you can see flames in the distance. I'll get the context notes back to normal next week. Thanks everyone!
Top 5 Rebound Candidates of Week 8
1. Mike Davis (vs. ATL) assuming no CMC
2. Jarvis Landry (vs. LV) especially without Odell
3. Hunter Henry (@ DEN)
4. CeeDee Lamb (@ PHI)
5. Jamison Crowder (@ KC) assuming he's healthy
Fantasy Usage Model - WRs
Average fantasy usage and PPR data from the last four weeks. I’ve removed injuries and noted other adjustments.
| Player | Fantasy Usage | PPR Per Game | Context |
| Davante Adams | WR1 (21.6) | WR1 (28.4) | 32.1, 14.3, & 29.0 xFPs in 3 healthy games. |
| Emmanuel Sanders | WR2 (20.3) | WR7 (19.8) | Recently the clear No. 1 without Thomas. |
| Adam Thielen | WR3 (18.6) | WR4 (23.2) | |
| Terry McLaurin | WR4 (18.5) | WR24 (16.0) | |
| Keenan Allen | WR5 (18.3) | WR11 (18.4) | LAC set season high in neutral pass rate. |
| Tyler Lockett | WR6 (17.6) | WR5 (22.4) | Set 2020 records in usage, air yards Week 7. |
| Tyler Boyd | WR7 (17.4) | WR22 (16.2) | WR2 overall in usage Week 7. PPR WR2/3. |
| Jamison Crowder | WR8 (17.4) | WR12 (18.3) | A PPR WR2 when healthy. Darnold back. |
| Julio Jones | WR9 (16.7) | WR2 (25.7) | High-upside WR1 when healthy. |
| Stefon Diggs | WR10 (16.7) | WR20 (16.4) | Schedule toughens up now but a WR1/2. |
| Travis Fulgham | WR11 (16.6) | WR8 (19.2) | PHI treating as X WR. Reagor close back. |
| Allen Robinson | WR12 (16.6) | WR25 (15.9) | Not always pretty but an every-week WR1/2. |
| Amari Cooper | WR13 (16.2) | WR13 (18.0) | Downgrading to upside WR2 post-Dak. |
| A.J. Green | WR14 (15.8) | WR46 (11.4) | Boom-bust WR3 depending on if he's trying. |
| D.J. Chark | WR15 (15.7) | WR38 (12.3) | WR2 usage when healthy. Boom-bust asset. |
| CeeDee Lamb | WR16 (15.1) | WR31 (14.8) | Downgrading to WR2/3 but such a stud. |
| DK Metcalf | WR17 (15.1) | WR27 (15.4) | Volatile WR2 usage but elite player + MVP QB. |
| Odell Beckham | WR18 (14.8) | WR15 (17.9) | Out for season. Is Jarvis truly healthy? |
| Will Fuller | WR19 (14.8) | WR10 (18.9) | Week 7 victim of CB Alexander. WR2. |
| Robby Anderson | WR20 (14.8) | WR26 (15.6) | |
| Marquise Brown | WR21 (14.5) | WR34 (14.0) | Most volatile WR but should average as a WR3. |
| Brandin Cooks | WR22 (14.2) | WR21 (16.2) | More play action post-BOB equals WR3 status. |
| A.J. Brown | WR23 (14.2) | WR3 (23.7) | Efficiency outlier on WR2/3 usage. Upside WR2. |
| DeAndre Hopkins | WR24 (13.8) | WR14 (18.0) | Has been slightly slowed by ankle. Top-5 WR. |
| Chris Godwin | WR25 (13.8) | WR18 (16.8) | My bet to lead TB WRs but only a WR2. |
| Calvin Ridley | WR26 (13.4) | WR32 (14.6) | Top-5 WR run is over with Julio back. WR1/2. |
| Kenny Golladay | WR27 (13.1) | WR23 (16.0) | |
| Cooper Kupp | WR28 (12.5) | WR45 (11.4) | |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | WR29 (12.2) | WR62 (9.0) | WR4 when PIT goes run-heavy. WR2 if not. |
| Tee Higgins | WR30 (12.1) | WR28 (15.2) | |
| Chase Claypool | WR31 (12.0) | WR6 (20.8) | Usage down with Diontae. Boom-bust WR3. |
| DeVante Parker | WR32 (11.9) | WR36 (13.5) | |
| Robert Woods | WR33 (11.9) | WR40 (12.1) | Has been hurt by low-aDOT, run-first offense. |
| Cole Beasley | WR34 (11.8) | WR29 (15.1) | |
| Darius Slayton | WR35 (11.7) | WR48 (11.2) | |
| Tyreek Hill | WR36 (11.7) | WR33 (14.4) | YPT outlier but coverages testing WR1 status. |
| D.J. Moore | WR37 (11.6) | WR16 (17.0) | |
| Zach Pascal | WR38 (11.5) | WR60 (9.2) | |
| Deebo Samuel | WR39 (11.4) | WR44 (11.5) | WR4 usage before pulling hammy. |
| Justin Jefferson | WR40 (11.4) | WR9 (19.1) | Efficiency outlier. Might trade WR1 days with AT. |
| Tim Patrick | WR41 (11.3) | WR30 (14.9) | |
| Christian Kirk | WR42 (11.2) | WR19 (16.8) | A winner of Drake's injury if they pass more. |
| Jarvis Landry | WR43 (11.1) | WR55 (10.0) | WR2/3 upside post Odell... if healthy. |
| T.Y. Hilton | WR44 (10.9) | WR77 (7.0) | |
| Randall Cobb | WR45 (10.9) | WR49 (11.1) | |
| Jeff Smith | WR46 (10.3) | WR83 (5.6) | |
| Darnell Mooney | WR47 (10.3) | WR78 (6.8) | Foles is the king of unrealized air yards. |
| Laviska Shenault | WR48 (10.1) | WR54 (10.1) | |
| Brandon Aiyuk | WR49 (9.9) | WR43 (11.9) | Re-gains WR4/flex status if Deebo misses. |
| Curtis Samuel | WR50 (9.9) | WR39 (12.2) | |
| Keelan Cole | WR51 (9.8) | WR53 (10.5) | |
| Josh Reynolds | WR52 (9.5) | WR56 (10.0) | |
| Mike Evans | WR53 (9.4) | WR42 (12.0) | Slowed by ankle. Volatile WR3 with Gronk/AB. |
| Nelson Agholor | WR54 (9.4) | WR17 (16.9) | |
| Marquez Callaway | WR55 (9.2) | WR65 (8.5) | |
| Greg Ward | WR56 (9.1) | WR57 (9.9) | |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | WR57 (9.1) | WR87 (5.2) | |
| Breshad Perriman | WR58 (8.9) | WR69 (7.5) | Left with concussion. |
| Mike Williams | WR59 (8.9) | WR35 (13.9) | Big-play threat with no floor. LAC passing more. |
| Larry Fitzgerald | WR60 (8.6) | WR73 (7.3) | |
| Adam Humphries | WR61 (8.3) | WR52 (10.7) | |
| Michael Gallup | WR62 (8.0) | WR89 (5.1) | |
| Russell Gage | WR63 (8.0) | WR71 (7.4) | |
| Marvin Jones | WR64 (7.9) | WR82 (5.9) | |
| Damiere Byrd | WR65 (7.9) | WR68 (7.5) | |
| Julian Edelman | WR66 (7.8) | WR105 (3.9) | Injured WR playing with injured QB. |
| Scotty Miller | WR67 (7.6) | WR51 (11.0) | |
| Hunter Renfrow | WR68 (7.6) | WR66 (8.0) | |
| Jerry Jeudy | WR69 (7.6) | WR67 (7.8) | |
| John Brown | WR70 (7.3) | WR101 (4.1) | |
| Preston Williams | WR71 (7.3) | WR50 (11.0) | |
| Deonte Harris | WR72 (7.2) | WR63 (8.8) | |
| Isaiah Ford | WR73 (7.1) | WR98 (4.4) | |
| Anthony Miller | WR74 (7.0) | WR90 (5.1) | |
| Marcus Johnson | WR75 (6.9) | WR59 (9.3) |
Fantasy Usage Model - TEs
Average fantasy usage and PPR data from the last four weeks. I’ve removed injuries and noted other adjustments.
| Player | Fantasy Usage | PPR Per Game | Context |
| Darren Waller | TE1 (17.6) | TE2 (16.9) | Not Kelce or Kittle but close. Easily the TE3. |
| George Kittle | TE2 (16.2) | TE1 (20.7) | Top-2 TE who feasts in negative script. |
| Travis Kelce | TE3 (13.4) | TE3 (16.1) | Return TDs, snow played into rare dud. |
| Austin Hooper | TE4 (12.6) | TE9 (11.8) | Removed Week 7. TE1 without Odell. Buy. |
| Rob Gronkowski | TE5 (12.6) | TE7 (12.0) | Averaging 12.6 xFPs in last 5. Low-end TE1. |
| Albert Okwuegbunam | TE6 (12.3) | TE15 (9.8) | Had TE1 usage with Fant hurt. |
| T.J. Hockenson | TE7 (12.3) | TE8 (11.8) | xFPs per game: Before bye (9.4), after (12.6). |
| Jonnu Smith | TE8 (11.1) | TE10 (11.5) | Removed Week 6. Athletic on TE1 usage. |
| Evan Engram | TE9 (10.7) | TE18 (8.7) | Volatile TE1/2 usage. Hopefully traded. |
| Noah Fant | TE10 (10.4) | TE23 (7.7) | At least 9.7 xFPs in all 5 healthy games. |
| Eric Ebron | TE11 (10.4) | TE22 (7.7) | Mostly TD-dependent on TE1/2 usage. |
| Jimmy Graham | TE12 (10.1) | TE17 (9.0) | |
| Trey Burton | TE13 (10.1) | TE11 (11.3) | Low-end TE1 usage since Alie-Cox injury. |
| Mark Andrews | TE14 (9.9) | TE5 (14.1) | Extremely volatile but elite TE1 spikes. |
| Hunter Henry | TE15 (9.7) | TE21 (7.8) | LAC had neutral pass rate jump Week 7. |
| Anthony Firkser | TE16 (9.7) | TE12 (11.0) | A capable streamer if Jonnu ever misses. |
| Hayden Hurst | TE17 (8.7) | TE13 (10.1) | xFPs P/G: With Julio (10.1), without (7.4). |
| Tyler Eifert | TE18 (8.2) | TE53 (2.9) | Old TE in awful offense. TE3. |
| Dalton Schultz | TE19 (7.9) | TE24 (7.6) | Averaging 5.8 expected PPR without Dak. |
| Mike Gesicki | TE20 (7.9) | TE31 (5.9) | Only 1-of-6 games above 11.0 xFPs. TE2. |
| Jared Cook | TE21 (7.3) | TE6 (12.7) | Extremely TD-dependent on TE2 usage. |
| Greg Olsen | TE22 (7.2) | TE35 (5.1) | At least TD-dependent attached to Russ. |
| Robert Tonyan | TE23 (7.0) | TE4 (14.8) | xFPs P/G: With Adams (9.5), without (2.8). |
| Irv Smith | TE24 (7.0) | TE27 (6.6) | Entered bye with 3-straight new 2020 highs. |
| Logan Thomas | TE25 (6.7) | TE19 (8.1) | Still had TE2 usage Week 7 despite TD. |
| Drew Sample | TE26 (6.7) | TE33 (5.5) | Needs CIN to pass 50 times to be a TE2. |
| Richard Rodgers | TE27 (6.3) | TE25 (7.5) | |
| Gerald Everett | TE28 (5.9) | TE14 (9.9) | |
| Harrison Bryant | TE29 (5.7) | TE20 (7.9) | |
| Durham Smythe | TE30 (5.6) | TE28 (6.2) | |
| Dawson Knox | TE31 (5.5) | TE52 (3.1) | |
| Tyler Higbee | TE32 (5.2) | TE32 (5.6) | |
| Will Dissly | TE33 (4.8) | TE29 (6.1) | |
| Darren Fells | TE34 (4.8) | TE16 (9.6) | |
| Kyle Rudolph | TE35 (4.7) | TE37 (4.8) |
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Fantasy Usage Model - RBs
Average fantasy usage and PPR data from the last four weeks. I’ve removed injuries and noted other adjustments. For more notes, I highly recommend High Value RB Touches.
| Player | Fantasy Usage | PPR Per Game | Context |
| Joe Mixon | RB1 (24.0) | RB3 (24.1) | Removed Week 7. Strong RB1 if healthy. |
| Alvin Kamara | RB2 (21.8) | RB5 (21.2) | The best fantasy RB by a wide margin. |
| Mike Davis | RB3 (20.4) | RB9 (18.5) | Avg. 20.6 expected PPR points post CMC. |
| Derrick Henry | RB4 (20.2) | RB1 (25.0) | Slightly more boom-bust than other RB1s. |
| Dalvin Cook | RB5 (19.6) | RB2 (24.3) | |
| Myles Gaskin | RB6 (19.2) | RB17 (15.3) | Touch shares: Leading (37%), trailing (21%). |
| James Conner | RB7 (19.0) | RB16 (15.5) | Avg. 19.7 expected PPR points since Wk 1. |
| Ronald Jones | RB8 (18.8) | RB12 (17.8) | Week 7 xFPs: Fournette (21.4), RoJo (12.1) |
| David Montgomery | RB9 (18.8) | RB23 (13.3) | RB1 usage on RB6 athleticism. RB2. |
| David Johnson | RB10 (18.4) | RB22 (14.0) | |
| Melvin Gordon | RB11 (18.1) | RB6 (20.9) | |
| Ezekiel Elliott | RB12 (18.1) | RB14 (16.5) | Not a top-3 RB anymore. Still a RB1. |
| Todd Gurley | RB13 (18.0) | RB8 (19.1) | |
| James Robinson | RB14 (17.8) | RB11 (17.9) | RB1 without Thompson. High-end RB2 with. |
| Chris Carson | RB15 (17.8) | RB4 (22.5) | Could miss a few weeks. Same with Hyde. |
| Aaron Jones | RB16 (17.5) | RB10 (18.1) | Top-5 RB when healthy. |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | RB17 (17.3) | RB21 (14.3) | Week 7 xFPs: CEH (13.3), Bell (4.8). RB2. |
| D'Andre Swift | RB18 (15.9) | RB7 (19.1) | 20.0 & 16.7 expected PPR points since bye. |
| Kareem Hunt | RB19 (15.5) | RB15 (16.1) | Chubb should be returning with 2-3 weeks. |
| Josh Jacobs | RB20 (15.5) | RB25 (13.0) | Touch shares: Leading (45%), trailing (18%). |
| Antonio Gibson | RB21 (15.3) | RB18 (15.3) | Touch shares: Leading (36%), trailing (21%). |
| Kenyan Drake | RB22 (15.0) | RB26 (12.6) | Edmonds SZN. |
| Devonta Freeman | RB23 (15.0) | RB30 (11.4) | |
| Jamaal Williams | RB24 (14.7) | RB20 (14.4) | Top-8 RB1 whenever Jones is out. |
| Darrell Henderson | RB25 (14.3) | RB31 (11.3) | |
| Jonathan Taylor | RB26 (12.6) | RB24 (13.3) | |
| Miles Sanders | RB27 (12.5) | RB13 (17.2) | Injuries played into low ranking. Top-10 RB1. |
| Chase Edmonds | RB28 (12.0) | RB19 (15.2) | |
| Raheem Mostert | RB29 (11.9) | RB28 (12.3) | |
| Alexander Mattison | RB30 (11.4) | RB35 (9.4) | |
| Devin Singletary | RB31 (11.4) | RB39 (8.8) | |
| J.D. McKissic | RB32 (10.9) | RB32 (11.0) | |
| Joshua Kelley | RB33 (10.6) | RB44 (7.1) | Week 7 xFPs: Kelley (15.9), Jackson (11.1). |
| Justin Jackson | RB34 (10.6) | RB34 (9.7) | Week 7 xFPs: Kelley (15.9), Jackson (11.1). |
| James White | RB35 (10.5) | RB33 (9.8) | |
| Nyheim Hines | RB36 (9.9) | RB47 (6.3) | |
| Adrian Peterson | RB37 (9.8) | RB38 (8.8) | |
| Malcolm Brown | RB38 (9.7) | RB41 (7.7) | |
| Latavius Murray | RB39 (9.7) | RB29 (11.9) | |
| Phillip Lindsay | RB40 (9.2) | RB36 (9.0) | |
| Giovani Bernard | RB41 (9.0) | RB37 (8.9) | |
| Jerick McKinnon | RB42 (8.5) | RB42 (7.5) | |
| Boston Scott | RB43 (8.3) | RB56 (5.4) | |
| Frank Gore | RB44 (8.2) | RB49 (6.2) | |
| Mark Ingram | RB45 (8.0) | RB40 (8.2) | Post-bye should mean it's Dobbins time. |
| Gus Edwards | RB46 (7.8) | RB59 (5.0) | |
| Tony Pollard | RB47 (7.7) | RB50 (6.2) | 67% of Week 7 touches in garbage time. |
| Jeff Wilson | RB48 (7.7) | RB27 (12.5) | |
| Lamical Perine | RB49 (7.5) | RB45 (6.9) | |
| Duke Johnson | RB50 (7.4) | RB55 (5.4) | 83% of Week 7 touches in garbage time. |
| J.K. Dobbins | RB51 (7.1) | RB57 (5.4) | Post-bye rookie bump? I hope so. |
| Brian Hill | RB52 (7.0) | RB51 (5.8) | |
| Rex Burkhead | RB53 (7.0) | RB58 (5.0) | 75% of Week 7 touches in garbage time. |
| Jeremy McNichols | RB54 (6.6) | RB62 (4.2) | |
| Jalen Richard | RB55 (6.4) | RB60 (4.3) | |
| Benny Snell | RB56 (6.4) | RB52 (5.7) | |
| Matt Breida | RB57 (6.4) | RB48 (6.3) | |
| Wayne Gallman | RB58 (6.1) | RB46 (6.3) | |
| Damien Harris | RB59 (6.0) | RB43 (7.4) | Empty-calorie touch king. |
| Royce Freeman | RB60 (5.2) | RB72 (3.3) | |
| Leonard Fournette | RBNA (21.4) | RB (15.7) | Only includes Week 7. Backfield still TBD. |
| Carlos Hyde | RBNA (13.6) | RB (16.6) | Only 1 game in last four weeks. |
| Reggie Bonnafon | RBNA (9.3) | RB (15.1) | Only 1 game in last four weeks. |
| Le'Veon Bell | RBNA (8.6) | RB (7.7) | Only 1 game in last four weeks. |
| DeAndre Washington | RBNA (7.5) | RB (1.7) | Only 1 game in last four weeks. |
The Fantasy Usage Model: Week 8
Part 1: High Value RB Touches & Game Script (Monday)
Part 2: Targets Aren’t Created Equal (Monday Night)
Part 3: Air Yards Report (Monday Night)
Part 4: Fantasy Usage Model Notes (Tuesday)
My Twitter: @HaydenWinks