Loading scores...
Robert Woods
AP
Going Deep

2019 Fantasy Usage and 2020 Buy Lows

by Hayden Winks
Updated On: June 24, 2020, 1:03 am ET

RBs - Expected Fantasy Points

The “xFP” model is projecting for PPR scoring. Remember that it's simply converting usage into expected fantasy points, so minor adjustments for talent and team are needed. Actual PPR scoring is listed under “FP”. The season-long and week-by-week results can be found in this Google Sheets spreadsheet.

 

Weeks 9-16 (Min. 5 Games)

Name

xFP

xFP Rank

FP

FP Rank

Christian McCaffrey

28.4

1

29.9

1

Leonard Fournette

20.8

2

16.5

13

Alvin Kamara

20.0

3

17.2

8

Ezekiel Elliott

19.0

4

18.8

4

Saquon Barkley

18.8

5

18.6

5

Dalvin Cook

17.7

6

17.0

11

Joe Mixon

17.6

7

16.4

14

Miles Sanders

17.2

8

17.5

7

Melvin Gordon

17.0

9

17.8

6

Nick Chubb

16.9

10

14.0

20

Le'Veon Bell

16.2

11

15.0

18

Kenyan Drake

16.0

12

20.0

3

Devonta Freeman

15.8

13

15.8

15

Josh Jacobs

15.5

14

14.3

19

Todd Gurley

15.3

15

15.7

16

Derrick Henry

14.9

16

24.4

2

Devin Singletary

14.8

17

13.2

23

Chris Carson

14.3

18

15.4

17

James White

13.8

19

13.7

21

Austin Ekeler

13.7

20

17.2

10

Aaron Jones

13.7

21

17.2

8

Mark Ingram

13.4

22

16.5

12

David Montgomery

11.9

23

9.7

32

Jaylen Samuels

11.6

24

9.0

34

Kareem Hunt

11.6

25

13.5

22

Tarik Cohen

11.4

26

10.5

30

Phillip Lindsay

11.3

27

11.2

27

Ronald Jones

10.7

28

12.1

25

Carlos Hyde

10.7

29

10.8

29

Kalen Ballage

10.6

30

5.3

59

Marlon Mack

10.5

31

10.8

28

Patrick Laird

10.3

32

7.8

38

Adrian Peterson

10.2

33

12.3

24

Jamaal Williams

9.7

34

9.0

35

Duke Johnson

9.6

35

9.6

33

Bo Scarbrough

9.4

36

8.2

36

Sony Michel

9.4

37

6.8

47

Tevin Coleman

8.6

38

6.2

52

Benny Snell

8.5

39

5.5

57

Brian Hill

8.5

40

7.4

40

Nyheim Hines

8.1

41

7.0

44

LeSean McCoy

8.0

42

7.3

42

DeAndre Washington

7.8

43

8.2

37

Royce Freeman

7.8

44

7.0

45

J.D. McKissic

7.8

45

7.7

39

Frank Gore

7.5

46

3.1

72

Raheem Mostert

7.3

47

11.9

26

Alexander Mattison

7.2

48

5.4

58

Rashaad Penny

7.1

49

9.9

31

Latavius Murray

7.0

50

6.4

50

 

Buy Low RBs

1. Le’Veon Bell (RB11 in Exp. Fantasy Points Weeks 9-16 vs. RB21 in ADP)

If we really dig deep into the numbers, Bell had a decent season last year compared to the environment he was in. Bills Stats & Graphs tweeted that Bell had the highest median result for rushing yards after adjusting for his offensive line, the defenses he faced, and a whole lot more. Basically, Bell might not be totally washed yet despite his awful 3.2 YPC average from 2019. If that’s the case, then Bell would be a decent value at RB21. His adjusted volume from last season put him on the RB1/2 borderline, and we should expect things to get slightly better in New York given the capital that went into the offensive line this offseason. Bell just could be the forgotten high-end RB2 of Rounds 4-5. With that said, I’m usually fading RBs in this range in favor of receivers.

 

2. Kareem Hunt (RB25 in Exp. Fantasy Points Weeks 9-16 vs. RB27 in ADP)

There probably isn’t a better modified zero RB target than Hunt right now. His upside as a handcuff is obvious, especially with Nick Chubb’s worrisome injury history. But he may be able to pay off his RB27 ADP alongside Chubb. Under ex-Vikings OC Kevin Stefanski, the Browns should be one of the most RB-heavy offenses in the NFL this season and that could include using Hunt as a part-time receiver in addition to his role as an all-around running back. Hunt was the RB25 in expected fantasy points per game from Weeks 9-16 last season and nearly outscored Chubb in actual fantasy points over that stretch (RB15 to RB17)

 

3. Tevin Coleman (RB38 in Exp. Fantasy Points Weeks 9-16 vs. RB43 in ADP)

The 49ers’ backfield was a total mess last season, but things are quietly clearing up with Matt Breida traded to Miami and Jerick McKinnon still yet to resume cutting. If McKinnon just can’t rebound following knee injuries, that would leave Coleman and Raheem Mostert as the clear-cut top dogs in an offense that posted the fourth most combined PPR points at the RB position last season. While I don’t mind Mostert earlier in fantasy drafts, Coleman’s RB43 ADP is my preferred option of the two. He would be a bye week flex option if he shares the backfield evenly with postseason star Mostert and would be an RB2 candidate if he takes back his job. Worst case, he’s an upside handcuff.

 

4. James White (RB19 in Exp. Fantasy Points Weeks 9-16 vs. RB38 in ADP)

A 34-year-old and oft-injured Julian Edelman is the only other proven pass-catcher besides White on the Patriots roster heading into 2020. It’s not a sexy pick and the upside is relatively capped by what could be a bad offense with a committee backfield, but White’s pass-catching volume makes him a buy at RB38. White has averaged 80 receptions and 698 receiving yards since Sony Michel was drafted in 2018, and he may see more dump off catches this year if the Patriots find themselves trailing in their post-Tom Brady world. White could shape up as a weekly flex play in PPR leagues.