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Hockey Analytics

David Krejci: Power Surge

by Gus Katsaros
Updated On: October 4, 2018, 4:04 pm ET

Entering play Tuesday against the Arizona Coyotes, David Krejci was in a four-way tie for the NHL point lead, sharing with Patrick Kane and teammates Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin. Benn has since taken over the early season scoring lead with 15 points, leaving Krejci one point behind (14) after potting two goals – at even strength.

 

Here are the two goals in GIF form courtesy of NHL GIFtress extraordinaire, Stephanie Vail @myRegularFace

 

Bruins win 6-0, here's Krejci with the sixth goal pic.twitter.com/VjrQvvRv1x

— Stephanie (@myregularface) October 28, 2015

 

And

 

Krejci scores, 1-0 Bruins over Arizona. He has had a point in every game this season pic.twitter.com/X3tAPnOGvY

— Stephanie (@myregularface) October 27, 2015

 

 

The Boston pivot has played alongside now departed Milan Lucic since 2010-11, earning 54.7 CF% and an impressive 58.3% GF%. Oddly enough, when not playing with Lucic, about one-third of his playing time, he’s achieved a sub-par 5v5 CF% (47.3%) and GF% (46.6).

 

Using the essential visuals from Micah Blake McCurdy’s site we can see the pairing of Krejci to the now departed Milan Lucic.

 

In eight games this season, he’s earned 52.5% in a pinch over 100 minutes at 5v5, with an on-ice shooting percentage of 7.76. He was lining up with David Pastrnak and until recently Matt Beleskey.

 

The two goals against Arizona gave him six (3-3-6) at 5v5 and six points on the 5v4 power play (2-4-6), firing a career high 23.33% - a highly unsustainable pace, even if the Bruins have scored a league high nine power play markers converting at a 32.1% efficiency in just over 41 minutes – 22nd overall in the NHL. Krejci has almost matched the eight 5v4 points from the 2014-15 season making the special teams boost early in the season a nice bonus.

 

But unsustainable.

 

Half his production is on the power play and two empty net goals (worthy of 14% of offensive production) constitute over half of his total points.

 

The data tells us that Boston is running a hot powerplay and the soft game against the Coyotes who played the previous night may skew the even strength production.

 

Unpredictability and randomness is an elemental characteristic of power play production reliant more on unrepeatable events than organized scoring.

 

According to data from War-on-ice.com, at 5v4 Krejci is averaging 20.88 high danger scoring chances per 60 (high danger comprises the crease and deep slot areas), down from the 27.47 since 2011-12. At 49.13 scoring chances per 60 minutes (scoring chances are within the home plate area from the crease out to the top of the faceoff circles along the dots), he’s well below the 55.08 average since 2011-12.

 

Season

GP

 G

 A

 P

 PSh%

 CF60

 HSCF60

 SCF60

201011

72

1

11

12

2.174

115.86

24.55

54.67

201112

78

2

9

11

11.111

108.36

22.75

48.07

201213

46

0

7

7

0.000

98.77

28.91

54.26

201314

77

3

16

19

11.905

114.58

26.12

57.47

201415

45

1

7

8

4.167

118.58

32.09

60.53

201516

8

2

4

6

23.333

113.51

20.88

49.13

Krejci currently leads the NHL in 5v4 Pts/60 (11.82) ahead of teammate Patrice Bergeron (11.81) in the NHL among forwards with over 20 minutes in ice time. He’s earned a point on 85.7% of the goals scored while on the ice – compared to 66.7% at 5v5.

 

Now, it’s still very early in a long season, so a warning on the correlation of early season metrics to those at season’s end. Under ten games presents a low correlation to what the end of the season totals can hold. The chart below illustrates that.

 

Also, because people were asking for it the other day, you can do a lot more with 10-15 games than you might think. pic.twitter.com/lyqfgc2VsA

— Micah Blake McCurdy (@IneffectiveMath) October 28, 2015

 

An injury-riddled 2014-15 season may have made some poolies gun-shy about selecting the Czech forward in drafts. Missing 35 games to hip, knee injuries with early season trouble concluded with a sub-par season and heavily influenced the Bruins missing the postseason.

 

Entering play against Arizona, he earned a point on 57.1% of the 5v5 goals scored while on the ice, the second lowest among the top 45 players ranked by Pts/60 - Krejci is 45th - playing a minimum of 100 minutes.

 

Scoring twice at even strength against the Coyotes, increased his Pts/60 to 3.11 boosting his ranking to 20th, while ballooning the individual point percentage to 66.7%.

 

Season

GP

 G

 A

 P

 PSh%

 CF60

 HSCF60

 SCF60

201011

75

11

34

45

9.63

61.845

11.323

32.171

201112

79

18

27

45

18.85

62.085

11.210

29.714

201213

47

10

14

24

14.09

65.206

12.255

32.238

201314

80

13

31

44

10.74

62.760

10.703

30.051

201415

47

5

14

19

10.10

57.628

10.721

27.115

201516

8

3

3

6

16.67

59.163

12.425

29.375

 

Curiosity into the hot start revealed the reliance on power play production that’s vaulted him to the top of the point leaderboard.

 

This shouldn’t come as a surprise. In 2014-15, despite injury trouble and missing three games at the end of October led the Bruins in scoring. The key difference was the lack of power play production.

Player

 GP

 G

 A

 Pts

 PPG

 David Krejci

9

3

6

9

0

 Milan Lucic

12

2

6

8

1

 Carl Soderberg

12

3

5

8

1

 Chris Kelly

12

2

5

7

0

 Patrice Bergeron

12

1

5

6

0

 

A decent power play would go a long way into preserving this blistering pace, but there will be the inevitable slowdown.

 

In a best case scenario, it’s not inconceivable for the 29-year old to make a run for a top-5 in NHL scoring.

 

 

 

 

 

Gus Katsaros
Gus Katsaros is the Pro Scouting Coordinator with McKeen’s Hockey, publishers of industry leading scouting and fantasy guide, the McKeen’s Annual Hockey Pool Yearbook. He also contributes to popular blog MapleLeafsHotStove.com ... he can be followed on Twitter @KatsHockey