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Hockey Analytics

Defensemen: IPP & iCorsi Rates

by Gus Katsaros
Updated On: October 4, 2018, 4:04 pm ET

Defensemen usually come at a premium and it could be steep.

 

Whether through the draft, or attempts to acquire one midseason/off season, choosing a defenseman will come with an opportunity cost if drafting high, or a valuable asset acquiring midseason.

 

The worst thing a fantasy GM can do is pick up on players that are on a 'hot streak' or have put up solid short term numbers. Take a longer term view and incorporate some other metrics when assessing defensemen. The end result can be an undervalued/ overvalued asset.

 

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Point producing defenseman aside from those receiving regular power-play minutes is a bit tricky.

 

The concept of even strength 'defense' is changing too thanks to possession concepts emanating from work in hockey analytics. The role of defenseman is moving from a pure defensive stance incorporating a paradigm of transitional support and augmenting offensive creativity. Successful team's bluelines must be mobile offensively, and flexible to transition from defense to offense.

 

I do year-to-year comparisons with a few basic statistics before getting into the hard raw numbers (goals, assists points). The two main stats that I'll start with are iCorsi/60 and IPP. Both stats are available on hockeyanalysis.com on the individual stats page.

 

IPP as referred to, encompasses the percentage of points earned on goal scored with the player on the ice. This can be broken down to goals or assists as well as in different situations (5v5, 5v4, 4v5, 4v4 etc.)

 

An alternative to iCorsi/60 is to think of it as individual shot attempts per 60 minutes. While Corsi is the situational aggregation of on-ice individual shots, missed shots, and block shot events, the individual Corsi isolates attempts originated by the player. More individual shot attempts leads to more scoring chances and potential.

 

Most fantasy GM's likely didn't look to the Toronto Maple Leafs with a lot of enthusiasm for scoring. Value does exist though, with Morgan Rielly who is the only defenseman currently leading their team in scoring with Dion Phaneuf sitting in second. Entering Tuesday night's game against Dallas, Rielly ranked second in iCorsi/60 at 5v5 among defensemen with a minimum 100 minutes while ranking first overall in and unblocked shot attempts (iFenwick) for every 60 min. I thought the Leafs offense would funnel through Rielly over the off season, and about 15 games into the season it looks like he's a catalyst for Leafs goal scoring while learning a rounded approach to defense.

 

St. Louis Blues rookie Colton Parayko ranks second in unblocked shot attempts while Brent Burns rounds out the top three. Burns is the undisputed leader of individual shot attempts per 60 (iCorsi/60).

 

Player

iFenwick/60

iCorsi/60

MORGAN RIELLY

10.72

15.16

COLTON PARAYKO

9.86

13.76

BRENT BURNS

9.82

16.07

 

Winnipeg Jets, Tyler Myers, is one of three defensemen to have earned a point on every goal scored while on the ice – earning an IPP of 100%. He ranks in the top 25 among defensemen in both individual scoring chances and high danger scoring chances (measured by data on www.war-on-ice.com) while his individual point percentage has ballooned from 38% in a combined Buffalo/Winnipeg season in '14-15.

 

Player

Team

GP

TOI

G

A

FirstA

Points

IPP

iSCF

iHSCF

IPPdelta

BEN HUTTON

Vancouver

15

218:17

0

4

3

4

100

21.900

3.650

NA

TYLER MYERS

Winnipeg

15

229:33

0

3

1

3

100

56.825

18.942

2.646

BRETT PESCE

Carolina

7

117:47

0

1

0

1

100

11.732

1.955

NA

DALTON PROUT

Columbus

13

185:45

0

1

0

1

100

18.177

0.000

3.378

 

The next highest Jets defenseman, Tobias Enstrom, has only earned a point on 30.8% of the goals scored while on the ice while earning four points – all assists, one primary.

 

Ben Hutton and Brett Pesce weren't playing in the NHL last season. Hutton has maintained a regular rotation in Vancouver, while the Carolina blueliner, Pesce has been spotted into the lineup early having played only seven games. When comparing the IPP from 2014-15 to 2015-16 Myers and Columbus blueliner Dalton Prout have an exorbitant rate of change between years. There's a tell there. Randomness and noise enter into this with such a small sample in which to make the comparison, however this is something to monitor for future decisions as the season progresses.

 

Year-over-year comparisons of iCorsi/60 the list starts with Brent Burns and Morgan Rielly, quickly followed by new Chicago Blackhawks Trevor Daley and Victor Svedberg, before rounding out the top five with Colton Parayko. Some other names of note: Nashville's Seth Jones - performing about 40% better so far this season than last year meanwhile Johnny Boychuk is only a hair out of the top five.

 

A comparison of defensemen individual Corsi/60 rates for 2015-16 and relative to the '14-15 rate.

 

 

 

Over the course of the season this is going to stabilize as more players regress towards the mean. With Trevor Daley interest among GM's, now is the time to start selling on the former Stars blueliner.

Back to Tyler Myers, while earning three assists at 5v5, he ranks among the top 25 in both individual scoring chances for (iSCF) and high danger scoring chances (iHSCF) per 60 min.

 

The former Sabre ranks third in high danger scoring chances for per 60 trailing only Brent Burns and teammate, Dustin Byfuglien. The chart below illustrates where both rover type defensemen separate themselves among their top ranked peers. Myers sits in third with an 18.942 iHSCF/60 where the rest of the group stabilizes. Defensemen don't normally encroach into that low slot area encompassing the high danger scoring chance area in order to capitalize.

 

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Myers has performed slightly below his fantasy value would elicit, at 5v5, but with only three on-ice goals (earning a point on all), and high rank in scoring chance generation, there's an opportunity here to capture a prized undervalued asset.

 

On the opposite end, St. Louis Blues rookie, Colton Parayko has exploded on the scene putting up seven points in 14 games – including three goals at 5v5 and four primary assists. His 10.34% individual shooting percentage ranks among the top 25 in the NHL – a tell of a coming stabilization back to regular pace among NHL defensemen. Here is a moment where an overvalued defenseman can be used as bait.

 

Frequent Flyers scratch Luke Schenn and Mark Streit have earned points on 57.1% of the goals scored while on the ice, with Radko Gudas and Nick Schultz clocking in at 16.7 & 14.3 respectively. No other defenseman has recorded a point on any on-ice goals. The IPPdelta (change in IPP year-over-year) and iCDelta (iCorsi/60 change year-over-year) indicate the that change with a 1 indicating performing at the same rate.

 

Players

 TOI

  G

  A

  iCorsi/60

  iFenwick/60

  IPP

  iSCF/60

  iHSCF/60

  IPPdelta

 iCdelta

LUKE SCHENN

141:09

1

3

12.75

4.25

57.1

11.935

2.387

1.495

1.287

MARK STREIT

238:11

2

2

8.56

5.79

57.1

38.867

11.660

1.428

1.160

RADKO GUDAS

172:50

0

1

10.07

7.98

16.7

20.403

2.915

0.535

0.641

NICK SCHULTZ

197:03

0

1

4.26

2.44

14.3

22.429

3.204

0.347

0.601

BRANDON MANNING

160:42

0

0

9.33

6.72

0

10.859

5.429

0.000

1.130

EVGENY MEDVEDEV

145:21

0

0

11.15

5.78

0

#N/A

#N/A

#N/A

#N/A

MICHAEL DEL ZOTTO

240:30

0

0

11.48

6.49

0

39.658

7.932

0.000

1.229

 

With games ending Nov 9, 2015, Colorado and Montreal had yet to record a 5v5 goal by a defenseman, yet Colorado has 17 helpers and the average IPP for the regulars is all above 50% - except for Tyson Barrie. There's an opportunity there for some scoring.

 

It's expected to get more goals from P.K. Subban and Andrei Markov, but Montreal's Jeff Petry, has earned 57.965 individual scoring chances per 60 minutes but has yet to record a point, firing 25 shots on goal.

 

Take a moment to familiarize yourself with these two vital base stats as you continue to look for opportunities for defensemen.

 

 

 

Gus Katsaros
Gus Katsaros is the Pro Scouting Coordinator with McKeen’s Hockey, publishers of industry leading scouting and fantasy guide, the McKeen’s Annual Hockey Pool Yearbook. He also contributes to popular blog MapleLeafsHotStove.com ... he can be followed on Twitter @KatsHockey