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Latest Lines

Latest Lines: Autotrader 500

by Dan Beaver
Updated On: October 24, 2020, 12:58 pm ET

Line Moves

Nearly every driver ranked among the top 10 this week for the Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500 at the PointsBet Sportsbook experienced a line change.

The changes ranged from a minimal adjustment of +20 points for Kevin Harvick (+260) to -800 for Erik Jones (+2800).

Harvick opened as the favorite, which is a familiar spot for the driver most oddsmakers are ready to crown the champion. He finished second last week to longshot Joey Logano and would have had a clearly superior car if he’d been able to get out of the No. 22’s dirty air, but does that make him this week’s favorite?

No. What does make him one of the favorites, however, is that he has three wins and a second-place finish at Texas in the last six races. He has not finished outside the top 10 since 2014, (a span of 12 events), and there is absolutely no reason to believe he is going to struggle this weekend. He has the bigger picture in mind, however, and next week’s short, flat track race at Martinsville Speedway will be a better preparation for Phoenix and the finale.


Oddsmakers also deducted a few points from the second-favored driver Denny Hamlin (+450). In this week’s Best Bets column, we didn’t think he was a particularly good value at 5/1 and PointsBet taking .50 cents off his payout has not made him any more attractive. Yes, Hamlin won Texas in spring 2019 but the other four races during the past three seasons have been 20th or worse.

Likely because of last week’s win, Logano (+850) came in at +750 and did not generate enough movement. His odds were sweetened by 100 points and he is the third-ranked driver this week. That is quite a big turnabout from last week’s +1400. Make no mistake, Logano is still an underdog, however; this team has not solved all of their problems just yet.

Logano shares the third ranking with Chase Elliott (+850). This handicap reveals just how much emphasis sportsbooks place on recent momentum because Elliott’s Texas record is disappointing. He scored top-fives in both races of his rookie season, but has not earned another. In the seven races since then, he has three top-10s. None of these have come in the past two seasons. Still, with momentum on his side Elliott might be worth a modest bet to finish in the top three at +245.

One of the biggest movers this week was Kyle Busch (+1500). He opened at +1100 and had already moved to +1500 when we tagged him as a surprise dark horse contender for the win in this week’s Best Bets column. With such a great return on investment, he is worth a modest bet.

The biggest mover among the top 10 was Jones (+2800) and bettors should take notice. He was a good value at 20/1, but with an extra $8 tacked onto the payout, he is worth a more sizeable wager. Jones is good at Texas and has been since he finished 10th in his rookie season. In 2018 and 2019 he scored three consecutive fourth-place finishes. This summer, he was sixth. If teammate Busch does not steal the show, Jones very well might.

Equally important, Jones’ 28/1 outright odds have drug his top-three odds to +700.

Prop Bets

Harvick is such a huge favorite this week that he has been eliminated from PointsBet’s group matchups, which leaves Hamlin (+175) as the favorite in Group A against Ryan Blaney (+265), Martin Truex Jr. (+265), and Brad Keselowski (+280). Our favorite from this foursome is Blaney. He had the strongest car in the summer’s O'Reilly 500 and would have easily won that event if not for a late-race caution that shuffled the running order for the final green-white-checkered restart.

While they matchup on outright odds to win, Logano (+180) has a slight edge over Elliott (+220) in Group B, which gives you an idea of how they truly view these two. Busch (+290) and Alex Bowman (+300) round out the foursome. If you are not convinced of Busch’s chances for the outright win, this gives you another opportunity to place a wager on him to simply outrun this pack of three.

And if we have convinced you that Jones is strong, he is featured in Group C at +190. Jones lines up against Kurt Busch (+215), Aric Almirola (+280), and William Byron (+300) and should easily finish ahead of his rivals unless he experiences trouble. Last week he scraped the wall at Kansas and finished well down the order.

At +105, Jones is also listed in a head-to-head matchup against Byron and his -125. Statistically Byron should not be favored – as well he isn’t in the Group C order.

Elliott (+140) is favored to be the top finishing Chevrolet driver, which seems to be a fairly safe bet. Harvick (+100) is even money to claim the top spot for Ford while Hamlin (-110) is heavily favored among the Toyota camp. Ky. Busch is listed at +325 to be the highest finishing Toyota driver.

PointsBet is our Official Sports Betting Partner, and we may receive compensation if you place a bet on PointsBet for the first time after clicking our links.

 

Rank

Driver

Current Odds

Opening Odds

Change

1.

Kevin Harvick

240

260

20

2.

Denny Hamlin

450

500

50

3.

Joey Logano

850

750

-100

3.

Chase Elliott

850

1000

150

5.

Martin Truex Jr.

900

1000

100

6.

Ryan Blaney

1000

1100

100

7.

Brad Keselowski

1100

1300

200

8.

Kyle Busch

1500

1100

-400

9.

Alex Bowman

2500

2500

0

10.

Kurt Busch

2800

2200

-600

10.

Erik Jones

2800

2000

-800

 

12.

Clint Bowyer

3400

3400

0

13.

Aric Almirola

4000

3000

-1000

13.

William Byron

4000

4000

0

15.

Jimmie Johnson

5000

4000

-1000

15.

Clint Bowyer

5000

4000

-1000

17.

Austin Dillon

6000

4000

-2000

18.

Tyler Reddick

6600

4000

-2600

19.

Matt DiBenedetto

7000

7000

0

20.

Cole Custer

12500

12500

0

20.

Christopher Bell

12500

12500

0

 

22.

Matt Kenseth

20000

12500

-7500

23.

Ryan Newman

25000

20000

-5000

23.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

25000

25000

0

25.

Bubba Wallace

35000

35000

0

26.

JJ Yeley

50000

0

 

26.

Reed Sorenson

50000

0

 

26.

Michael McDowell

50000

50000

0

26.

Ryan Preece

50000

50000

0

26.

Corey LaJoie

50000

50000

0

26.

Ty Dillon

50000

50000

0

26.

Chris Buescher

50000

50000

0

26.

Joey Gase

50000

0

 

26.

Brennan Poole

50000

50000

0

26.

Daniel Suarez

50000

0

 

26.

Timmy Hill

50000

0

 

26.

Chad Finchum

50000

0

 

26.

JH Nemechek

50000

50000

0

26.

Josh Bilicki

50000

0

 

26.

Quin Houff

50000

0

 

 

Dan Beaver

Dan Beaver has been covering fantasy NASCAR for more than 20 years with a little help from his >650,000 record database. He can be found on Twitter @FantasyRace.