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Latest Lines

Latest Lines: Hollywood Casino 400

by Dan Beaver
Updated On: October 21, 2020, 12:05 am ET

Line Moves

Only four drivers saw their odds change from Monday through Saturday this week, which may suggest there was not a lot of money exchanged.

The most significant line movement was a subtle one.

Denny Hamlin (+400) started the week at +425, which ranked him second behind Kevin Harvick (+400). Hamlin’s Kansas numbers far exceed Harvick and that seemed to encourage a few more wagers in his direction. While Hamlin has won the two most recent races on this 1.5-mile track, Harvick finished ninth last fall and was fourth this summer.

Now that they are even, Hamlin still represents the better bet even though .25 cents has been shaved off his odds. Trailing in points ever so slightly (-13), he needs to establish his position in the Championship 4 with a victory. The oddsmakers notably disagree. Harvick is highly favored in a head-to-head matchup this week at PointsBet Sportsbook with a -130 to Hamlin’s +110.


Martin Truex Jr. (+525) also had a minor adjustment. He began the week at +540 and had 15 points taken off his odds, which suggests he saw noteworthy movement during the week. Truex’s prowess on the 1.5-mile tracks was well established in 2017 through 2019 when he dominated this course type. He has not been as consistent this year, but four of his last six 1.5-mile races ended in top-fives.

Joey Logano (+1300) was the only other driver among the 10 highest ranked drivers to see a line change and it was also in the form of points shaved off. Logano opened at +1400 before 100 points were taken off his odds. As with all of the current championship contenders in the Round of 8, winning is critical during this three-race contest.

Harvick and Hamlin dominated Victory Lane during the regular season, but five different drivers have won in the first six races of the playoffs. Logano is not one of those five, however. His best finish of second came last week on the wild card Roval. He opened the playoffs with back-to-back third-place finishes. Logano is listed at +400 at PointsBet, and that is a better wager than one for the outright win.

Aric Almirola (+3300) was the only remaining driver to experience a line movement from Monday through Saturday. In his case, oddsmakers needed to sweeten the pot by +300 points to place him at 33/1 in hopes of getting some money to move. He now shares that distinction with Erik Jones (+3300). Jones would appear to be the better bet at this level. He has been on fire during the playoffs with four top-fives and another top-10 in six races. At Kansas, he’s finished seventh or better in the last five events.

Prop Bets

In fact, bettors have an opportunity to double down on Jones. This week he is listed among a four drivers in a Prop Bet at PointsBet. If Jones (+325) outruns Almirola (+325), Kyle Busch (140), and Kurt Busch (+250) in Group C this week, it is worth $3.25 for every dollar wagered. Kyle is still struggling to find his first win of 2020. Kurt won recently on another 1.5-mile track in Las Vegas, but he needed a well-timed caution flag to put his car in position to do so and lightning rarely strikes the same place twice.

There is very little difference in Group A this week. Hamlin (+220) and Harvick (+220) remain the favorites there with Truex (+255) and Chase Elliott (+275) close behind. The win could very well come down to this foursome, but track position after the final caution will most likely determine the outcome.

In Group B, Alex Bowman (+325) has the greatest upside against Brad Keselowski (+175), Ryan Blaney (+250), and Logano (+250). Bowman outperformed all three drivers in the most recent 1.5-mile race at Vegas. His fifth narrowly edged Blaney in seventh, but Logano (14th) and Keselowski (13th) both landed outside the top 10.

Elliott (+115) is listed as the top Chevrolet driver, Harvick (+150) as the best in the Ford camp, and Hamlin (+115) is expected to top the Toyotas.

PointsBet is our Official Sports Betting Partner, and we may receive compensation if you place a bet on PointsBet for the first time after clicking our links.
 

Rank

Driver

Current Odds

Opening Odds

Change

1.

Kevin Harvick

400

400

0

1.

Denny Hamlin

400

425

25

3.

Martin Truex Jr.

525

540

15

4.

Chase Elliott

600

600

0

5.

Brad Keselowski

800

800

0

6.

Ryan Blaney

1200

1200

0

7.

Joey Logano

1300

1400

100

8.

Kyle Busch

1400

1400

0

9.

Alex Bowman

2200

2200

0

10.

Kurt Busch

2500

2500

0

 

11.

Aric Almirola

3300

3000

-300

11.

Erik Jones

3300

3300

0

13.

William Byron

4000

4000

0

14.

Clint Bowyer

5000

5000

0

15.

Jimmie Johnson

6000

6000

0

15.

Tyler Reddick

6000

6000

0

17.

Matt DiBenedetto

7000

7000

0

18.

Austin Dillon

9000

9000

0

18.

Cole Custer

9000

9000

0

20.

Christopher Bell

12500

12500

0

 

21.

Matt Kenseth

15000

15000

0

22.

Ryan Newman

25000

25000

0

22.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

25000

25000

0

22.

Chris Buescher

25000

25000

0

25.

JJ Yeley

50000

50000

0

25.

Reed Sorenson

50000

50000

0

25.

Michael McDowell

50000

50000

0

25.

Ryan Preece

50000

50000

0

25.

James Davison

50000

50000

0

25.

Corey LaJoie

50000

50000

0

25.

Ty Dillon

50000

50000

0

25.

Bubba Wallace

50000

50000

0

25.

Joey Gase

50000

50000

0

25.

Brennan Poole

50000

50000

0

25.

Daniel Suarez

50000

50000

0

25.

Timmy Hill

50000

50000

0

25.

Chad Finchum

50000

50000

0

25.

JH Nemechek

50000

50000

0

25.

Josh Bilicki

50000

50000

0

25.

Quin Houff

50000

50000

0

 

Dan Beaver

Dan Beaver has been covering fantasy NASCAR for more than 20 years with a little help from his >650,000 record database. He can be found on Twitter @FantasyRace.